Influenza Strikes Early

What if the Spanish Influenza hit Europe four years earlier, perhaps even killing Ferdinand instead of an assassin's bullet? With a disease wreaking Europe, would the Great War be prevented, at least for the time being?

How do other countries move along with this events?
 
Well certainly it wouldn't be triggered at that time.
Alliance network persists so the question is if one of the less stable powers collapses or otherwise changes the alliance network.
The alternative source of confrontation approaching is the german/British naval arms race
 
Well certainly it wouldn't be triggered at that time.
Alliance network persists so the question is if one of the less stable powers collapses or otherwise changes the alliance network.
The alternative source of confrontation approaching is the german/British naval arms race
Wasn't Germany in the process of pulling out of the arms race, I know threat naval law of 1912 talked big but it didn't reflect reality. Capital ships laid down in 1911 was 4 and I believe 3 in in 1912, 2 in 1913 and 2 in 1914 (lt hough I'm not sure how relevant that was given the outbreak of war).
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Well certainly it wouldn't be triggered at that time.
Alliance network persists so the question is if one of the less stable powers collapses or otherwise changes the alliance network.
The alternative source of confrontation approaching is the german/British naval arms race

Germany essentially gave up in 1912, unless you are suggesting the 'flu strikes earlier in the middle of the naval arms race - 1909 would not be a great year from a peaceful solution perspective.
 
Germany essentially gave up in 1912, unless you are suggesting the 'flu strikes earlier in the middle of the naval arms race - 1909 would not be a great year from a peaceful solution perspective.
So not the most likely cause of war. AUsto-Hungarian Empire collapse?
 
So not the most likely cause of war. AUsto-Hungarian Empire collapse?
That's not a war the Brits would have fought. France and Russia vs Germany and elements of AH with other elements of AH falling apart. Much more even war. Doesn't need Britain to keep the Entente standing.

Actually an earlier Spanish Influenza could lead to AH falling apart.

That said an earlier Spanish flu wouldn't be as bad as more of the population would have partial immunity from the Russian flu in 1890.
 
Actually an earlier Spanish Influenza could lead to AH falling apart.
That in itself would certainly be an interesting outcome.

Were the countries that eventually became destabilized following WWI (Russia, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans) destabilized by WWI or were there other factors that would still lead to their eventual collapse in various ways?
 
That in itself would certainly be an interesting outcome.

Were the countries that eventually became destabilized following WWI (Russia, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans) destabilized by WWI or were there other factors that would still lead to their eventual collapse in various ways?
Ottomans were the sick man of europe and had lost Italy Turkish war and the Balakns war and was only surviving.

The Russians were recovering from the Russian Japanese war and periods of unrest and improving both their army and their industrial base. The biggest problem in ww1 were food shortages in the cities that came about because rail was tied down shipping supplies to the Army.

Austria Hungary had a significant under current of nationalist tensions as well as tension between the dual parliaments.
 
An earlier influenza would have killed fewer people because they're not suffering from malnutrition after a lengthy war depleted food reserves.
An earlier influenza would have been better contained without all those America and Commonwealth troops returning home at the end of the war.
 

Wallet

Banned
An earlier influenza would have killed fewer people because they're not suffering from malnutrition after a lengthy war depleted food reserves.
An earlier influenza would have been better contained without all those America and Commonwealth troops returning home at the end of the war.
Basically this. The influenza spread so far because of troops returning home.
 
An earlier influenza would have killed fewer people because they're not suffering from malnutrition after a lengthy war depleted food reserves.
An earlier influenza would have been better contained without all those America and Commonwealth troops returning home at the end of the war.

Basically this. The influenza spread so far because of troops returning home.
That's certainly fine. My goal isn't necessarily to recreate the death toll of the disease, more wondering if an early arrival would be enough of an epidemic to at least delay the tensions that lead to WWI.
 

Wallet

Banned
That's certainly fine. My goal isn't necessarily to recreate the death toll of the disease, more wondering if an early arrival would be enough of an epidemic to at least delay the tensions that lead to WWI.
According to Wikipedia, the outbreak either started in Kansas at a US military or China and came with workers used to dig up the trenches.

Let's say the US. If the outbreak stated in 1914, it would affect WWI. It probably stays in Kansas. Even if it spreads across the US, WWI is still starting on schedule. A pandemic in the US does not effect European alliances or schemes. Same if it starts in China.
 
If it starts in Russia is it enough to make Russia pull out of supporting Serbia.

If it starts in Austria and it kills FF how long is war delayed.

If it starts in Germany does Germany give Austria a blank cheque.
 
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