Influenza Pandemic

[Darkest]

Let's say that a new strain of Bird Flu develops now or sometime in the near future. The first noticeable break-out is discovered in Changsha, PRC. Within two days, the disease spreads and there are similiar outbreaks in Canada, France, and Indonesia.

Let's also assume that this pandemic kills 4.5% of the world population, most deaths in Asia, until a cure is found six months later.

What happens to the world during and after this catastrophe?

 

[Flocculencio]

Indonesia might collapse, as might China. The loss of 4.5% of the world's population is nothing to be sneezed at if you'll pardon the expression

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Actually It Gets Worse...

According to World on Fire by Amy Chua, you have given an excuse for the violent explosion of anti-Chinese sentiment in the region , based on "public health concerns". The Chinese communities in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mynamar (Burma), Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan. For more on this ethnic violence, please check out the following site:

http://www.salon.com/books/review/2003/01/13/democracy/

or check out this article from Migration News on the situation of Chinese in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam:

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/54/224.html

This doesn't explain what I have happen next.....

 

[Darkest]

Well if China and Indonesia collapse, is anyone going to step in and take it over? Or is it just going to go to the UN?

 

[Rabbit Scribe]

The global community gets really serious about epidemiology (and by extension biowarfare) in a big hurry, which is a plus.

 

[wkwillis]

Let's say that a new strain of Bird Flu develops now or sometime in the near future. The first noticeable break-out is discovered in Changsha, PRC. Within two days, the disease spreads and there are similiar outbreaks in Canada, France, and Indonesia.

Let's also assume that this pandemic kills 4.5% of the world population, most deaths in Asia, until a cure is found six months later.

What happens to the world during and after this catastrophe?

As in the last influenza pandemic, nonAfrican, European, and Asian populations suffer most. If 4.5 percent of humanity dies, then it's going to be 9 percent in Mexico. It was much higher than that in Samoa and among many native tribes in the Americas.

 

[Darkest]

So are you saying Mexico would lose 9 percent of their population? That's definitely not good, probably stir up some kind of civil war.

 

[wkwillis]

So are you saying Mexico would lose 9 percent of their population? That's definitely not good, probably stir up some kind of civil war.

Plagues don't start wars, plagues stop wars. More land, houses, factories, oil wells, gold ingots, etc, per capita, is not a thing that makes anyone want to start a war. They've already got what the want, why bother?

 

[Torqumada]

Lets see, the Spanish Flue epidemic of 1918 killed nearly 40 million people or 2.6% of the population. 4.5% of todays population is 270,000,000 people. Unfairly distributed could mean a few changes in here and there. Countries that have a large population, but not the medical resources to treat everyone will have most of the deaths. However, even here in the US, we could see 1.2 milion people die (average aout 85,000 a year normally ad is the 6th leading cause of death in the US). During an ordinary flu season, docotor's offices, emergency rooms and hospitals are already stressed tot he limits. Hospitals run out of rooms, the ERs fill up with wait times that can be as long as 5 hours just to see a Doctor, Doctors offices are often overwhelmed as are free clinics. There could be some break down of medical care in some places, espcially as health care workers get sick and some die.

You seem to be worried about the deaths. I would be more concered abotu the number of people that would be affected by the flu for a week or 2. That effects things even more. For example, if the government declares a massive widespread quaranteen (sp?) to protect the public, say in the middle of February, where do people get the food they need to eat and the fuel to heat their homes?

Torqumada

 

[Darkest]

Plagues don't start wars, plagues stop wars. More land, houses, factories, oil wells, gold ingots, etc, per capita, is not a thing that makes anyone want to start a war. They've already got what the want, why bother?

Makes sense. But, with say a nation is weakened considerably, it might have enemies that want to take away its land. Where would a situation like that happen, though? Plus, if a nation dissolves into a failed state because of the pandemic, something has to be done. If not soon, a few years down the road.

You seem to be worried about the deaths. I would be more concered abotu the number of people that would be affected by the flu for a week or 2. That effects things even more. For example, if the government declares a massive widespread quaranteen (sp?) to protect the public, say in the middle of February, where do people get the food they need to eat and the fuel to heat their homes?

The sells of radiation suits increase tenfold? I don't know, how would people continue their lives? I see some individuals using full-blown sealed suits whenever they go out the door, until the cure is found... but are there enough to go around? What would a quarantine consist of (rules, area, which nation, ect.)?

I must be lame , I always wait for you guys to give me the answers. Guess I need to hit wikipedia a lot harder. Your opinions are still appreciated, though. Thanks.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

A Few Things To Consider....

-First, consider the fact that , even with the best cure, you will have a vaccine that might kill 1 in 100,000 people. Under those conditions , with 6.3 billion people and 4.5% being killed off, you have over 300,000 people killed. This fact alone will cause a great deal of suspicion and panic in mainland China....

-Second, you have four major nuclear powers in the area. All with a historical and/or political animosity with the Chinese Communist government (India, Pakistan, North Korea and Russia). As such, you can imagine the shock of hundreds of Chinese refugees floding across the Chinese border, sparking fears of plague and contamination...

-Third, you also have Chinese refugees flooding into countries with vast oil resources, always a catalyst for violence such as Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan vital to the development of Central Asia's oil economy. The flood of refugees into those countries would destabilize those governments almost overnight...

-Russian ultra-nationalists like Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who have called for a sealing of the border with China, would rise in prominence as the Russian military is forced to deal with thousands of refugees, many who may have the plague....