Industrialization/Economic Survival of a landlocked Austro-Germany?

Hey folks, it's Hook again...

In a TL I'm working on for myself the Ottomans have (just barely) succeeded in taking all the European possessions they tried for in the 16th century. There's a valid explaination and it's not a wank, as their uppance is coming - they are overstretched after all; but they hold and keep southern Italy (including Rome), everything up to and including Vienna, Malta, etc.

Northernmost Germany (including the Greater Netherdlands, Hanover, Hamburg, Brandenburg, most of the Saxonies, Schleiswig-Holstein and then some, Prussia, etc.) is united by someone else rather early and after a particularly devastating analog to the Thirty Year's War (which incorporates two massive succession wars as well) the HRE finds itself with a wave of Protestants fleeing the territories, a mess of tiny holdings all loyal to the Emperor but not one another, and completely surrounded by hostile powers without a single port. It begins to federalize to unite the Germany it has left (including, for reasons I won't mention here, Switzerland).

Essentially an Austro-Bavarian dominated landlocked Germany from Switzerland in the west to OTL's Czechoslovakia in the east, some of the Saxonies in the north but not Berlin or any of Brandenburg, and all of Austria minus Vienna.

Anyway, once the country is federalized - how can it viably survive? I assume there are plenty of resources but none that surrounding nations don't already have for themselves. There are no ports so no navy either commercial or military.

So, handwaving the details as to how we got here - where do we go from here? How can my little landlocked Austro-Germania survive?

Also, any ideas for a new capital? Prague? Doesn't seem central enough...
 
What about French Comte, Alsace, the Hapsburg Netherlands, Silesia, Milan and OTL Slovenia? Does it inclue the Rhur or the Saarland?

Either way, this Germany controls some of the most developed regions of Europe and also controls some of the most important trade routes across the continent. So yes, it will viably survive, and probably thrive as well. As Europe industrializes it will be either in the first or second wave of industrialization. Since it is on so many major rivers, it will probably have a navy as well, if only a navy of river boats.

And as the Ottomans are pushed back, this Germany will be one of the main beneficiaries.

Of course, depending on how smart the emperors are, how damaging the wars (particularly your 30 years war equivalent) are and sheer luck will influence how bumpy the ride is.

And if the German Empire is still a Hapsburg Empire, it will almost certainly be Prague that is capital, since that will be the center of Hapsburg power.

fasquardon
 
if for some reason explicitly not Prague (which seems like the most likely bet since Habsburg), then Münich would probably be the best bet
 
Thanks so much for the responses.

It includes none of the holdings in the first sentence but both of the lands in the second if my mindmap is updated with accuracy.

So, as long as they have a good standing army they should be fine economically? That's good. The nation isn't in a great position to pick a fight ttl, and will be torn between despising the Ottomans but in no position to pick a major fight with them, fearful but mostly peaceful hatred for the behemoth to the north, and a tenuous and distrustful alliance with their catholic French neighbors to the west. Obviously Napoleon is butterflied, sooo...

I think at some point they'll go south to forge a secure Adriatic port via Slovenia. That's when it's navy time and I think they'll be a contender, though they'll have some catching up to do...

A quick follow up, if you don't mind: Between the 16th and 19th centuries, what would the primary goods and exports be and what would have to be exported and from where?
 
I personally don't see this south-eastern Germany in the first wakes of Industrialistion.

This Germany would not have the urban tradition and large amounts of natural resources that helped the north and west of the country in OTL. The economy of southern Germany, Austria and Switzerland was up until the beginning of the 20th century almost exclusively based and on agriculture. The agricultural sector was also far more divided in the south, with countless little farmers that could pretty much only support themselves. I can remember many instances were people would joke about the poor bavarians and complain that had to pay for them even up to the reunification. That bavaria is now pretty much the richest part of Germany doesn't mean it was so in the past.

There could be still some industrial centres, especially if this country includes regions like Saxony and Bohemia, but I don't think it will ever be an industrial powerhouse just waiting to dominate its neighbours.

Now, this doesn't say anything about it's military, as OTL shows us with pre congress of Vienna Prussia.

Main exports in the earlier centuries could be salt, timber and food, etc.
 
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So, a late start to industrialization padded a bit with self sufficiency, followed by industry beginning to boom in the early twentieth? century - with comfort but no chance of domination? It's better than I first thought if so, and that's fine. The goal was never for this state to become a megacountry.

Perhaps it can provide luxuries and safe banking a la Switzerland? This would certainly soften the economic stagnation while it struggles to catch up to its neighbors...
 
If the Ottomans have only barely reached Vienna, I don't think they will be able to dislodge the Hapsburgs from Slovenia.

And how does this Germany lack an urban tradition and large amounts of natural resoruces?! It is only lacking Silesia, which accounted for only one-third of the industrial output of the German Empire. The main center, the Rhur, home to something like 50% of German output (as of 1914) is apparently part of this Germany. While the Saar is worth less without German control of the iron fields of Lorraine, it is still a very good and rich deposit of coal, and French iron can be imported (easier to bring the iron to the coal than the coal to the iron, since you need much more coal in smelting). Also, the country is rich in agricultural and forestry products. Far too many to list here. Most of Germany (and central Europe's) resources that are outside Poland and Silesia are inside this South German state, so plenty of lead, zinc, copper, silver, salt, coal and iron. As far as urban development, most of the older cities of Germany are part of this South Germany. Further, it is well supplied with good river communications, so linking those rivers together (particularly the Rhine and Danube) with canals further improves the communications of the country, which makes it easy to bring the rural goods to the urban markets. Those good rivers and the Alps, Hartz, Lusatian, Beskids and Ore mountains makes for lots of water power (which is why, before the 30 years war, Southern Germany was the industrial heartland of Europe).

I would say this alt-South Germany had, in total, more industrial potential than OTL's (Prussian) German Empire, since it combines the best industrial regions of both the Hapsburg and (Prussian) German Empires into one domain.

It certainly has the potential of being one of the continent's great powers, and potentially even a hegemonic power, but that really depends on how well the rulers play their hand and how badly damaged it is during the wars that form it. Certainly they will push the Turks back from Vienna and northern (if not all) Hungary. But that has more to do with how fragile the Turkish position is so far from their centers of power. The central location of South Germany could very easily mean that besides pushing the Turks back a bit, they are never secure enough to really threaten anyone else.

And, unless the Industrial Revolution is delayed in your TL, industrialization of Southern Germany will happen long before the early 20th Century. Early 20th Century is when Russia and Poland were industrializing. At the very latest, assuming industrialization starts at the same time, the main wave of development will be in the mid-19th Century. Simply put, the resources of the region are far to forgo.

As far as searching for a coast, all the rivers that run through the main economic centers of the country run north. So, while Italy will be a tempting (due to its own riches, not the usefulness of ports on the Adriatic), the main sea ports of South Germany are all on the Atlantic. Hamburg for Bohemia, Antwerp for the Rhur and Southern Bavaria.

fasquardon
 
There would be a lot of river trade.

Bavaria had a lot of the late 19th century industrialisation in it (look at BMW, MAN etc)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I am pretty sure it was established that this Germany wouldn't have the Ruhr and other westgerman regions. Also I didn't mean it will take that long to industrialize for this country, only that it wouldn't be a leading nation in this regard as was mentioned earlier.

Also, a country of this size and population would necessary have a say in European matters, but I am convinced it wouldn't be able to be a direct rival Russia, Great Britain or France. Think more of the position Italy had at the end of the 19th century. No pushover, but not one of the leading powers.
 
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I am pretty sure it was established that this Germany wouldn't have the Ruhr and other westgerman regions. Also I didn't mean it will take that long to industrialize for this country, only that it wouldn't be a leading nation in this regard as was mentioned earlier.

Also, a country of this size and population would necessary have a say in European matters, but I am convinced it wouldn't be able to be a direct rival Russia, Great Britain or France. Think more of the position Italy had at the end of the 19th century. No pushover, but not one of the leading powers.

Maybe I misunderstood....

What about French Comte, Alsace, the Hapsburg Netherlands, Silesia, Milan and OTL Slovenia? Does it inclue the Rhur or the Saarland?

It includes none of the holdings in the first sentence but both of the lands in the second if my mindmap is updated with accuracy.

The second sentence mentions the Ruhr and Saarland region.
 
I personally don't see this south-eastern Germany in the first wakes of Industrialistion.

This Germany would not have the urban tradition and large amounts of natural resources that helped the north and west of the country in OTL. The economy of southern Germany, Austria and Switzerland was up until the beginning of the 20th century almost exclusively based and on agriculture. The agricultural sector was also far more divided in the south, with countless little farmers that could pretty much only support themselves. I can remember many instances were people would joke about the poor bavarians and complain that had to pay for them even up to the reunification. That bavaria is now pretty much the richest part of Germany doesn't mean it was so in the past.

There could be still some industrial centres, especially if this country includes regions like Saxony and Bohemia, but I don't think it will ever be an industrial powerhouse just waiting to dominate its neighbours.

Now, this doesn't say anything about it's military, as OTL shows us with pre congress of Vienna Prussia.

Main exports in the earlier centuries could be salt, timber and food, etc.

Urban tradition?
Look at the map from 1648.
You´ve got three independent Imperial Free towns in the North (Luebeck, Hamburg, Bremen). The majority are in Southern Germany. With the two largest (red) territories of Nuremberg and Ulm.
And Nuremberg wasn´t famous for exports of salt, food or timber. :)

Let´s look at the combined Northern German / Dutch country.
The Netherlands: center of industry and commerce
Luebeck, Hamburg, and Bremen: trade
Lueneburg: salt
Plus mining in the Harz mountains and maybe the Saxon ore mountains.
Maybe Silesia (coal) later on?
(And later on brown coal in Saxony.)
Seems to me that most of Northern Germany will rely on food and salt exports?
This country will largely rely on Dutch commerce to survive.

Now what might happen here is that we´ll see a larger colonial Empire than the Dutch in OTL (larger population here). And maybe more conflicts with the British and French (and maybe Baltic Sea countries).

And the Southern (rump) Austria-Germany?
Rhineland (Ruhr) region, Saarland, Palatinate, Bohemia, Nuremberg.
Plus apparently "some of the Saxonies in the north" (of Bohemia).
That´s most of the mining regions in Germany (coal plus ore). Plus future industrial centers.
While losing most of the more fertile farm land to the Northern state. So it might actually import food.

A federalized Southern Austria-Germany?
More powerful than OTL Habsburg Austria. And OTL Habsburg Autria was considered a Great Power.
 
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