Indonesian civil war in 1998

Lesse... There was an ethnic riot in the east (Maluku and Poso), and in Kalimantan due to ethnic tension between transmigrant and native. I think almost everyone knows what happens in Java at the time. The active separatist movements are in Aceh, Papua, South Molucca, and Timor (remember Indonesia hadn't pulled out yet)

So total disintegration of Indonesian state wasn't plausible. New Order really build up those nationalism. Separation East Timor (OTL), Aceh (unlikely), and Papua (really unlikely) however, was possible.

The only way for balkanization, therefore, is via political split, which I don't know whether it is possible or not
 
So total disintegration of Indonesian state wasn't plausible. New Order really build up those nationalism. Separation East Timor (OTL), Aceh (unlikely), and Papua (really unlikely) however, was possible.
How about a standard civil war for control of all of Indonesia ?
 
I think that if it came to a civil war in 1998, the “war” would be limited to Jakarta and its environs. At the time of Soeharto’s resignation, there was a big build-up of ABRI troops in Jakarta in the name of securing the capital after the riots but which also brought the specter of clashes between troops representing different factions.

A civil war in this instance would be fought between forces led by Commander of Armed Forces (ABRI) Gen. Wiranto and Commander of the Army Strategic Command (Kostrad) Lt. Gen. Prabowo Subianto. The former was a former Soeharto aide-de-camp, the latter was at the time a son-in-law of Soeharto.
 
A civil war in this instance would be fought between forces led by Commander of Armed Forces (ABRI) Gen. Wiranto and Commander of the Army Strategic Command (Kostrad) Lt. Gen. Prabowo Subianto. The former was a former Soeharto aide-de-camp, the latter was at the time a son-in-law of Soeharto.
Which one is likely to win and how long would the fighting last ?
 
Which one is likely to win and how long would the fighting last ?

As quoted in Cornell’s Current Data on the Indonesian Military Elite: 1st October 1995-31st December 1997:

“Wiranto and his friends will dominate the Armed Forces Headquarters, while Prabowo and his allies, most of whom come with Kopassus (Army Special Forces) backgrounds, control Army Headquarters and strategic positions in and around Jakarta.”

This was the analysis in December 1997.

In May 1998 things are more complicated and it’s very difficult to say who will win and how a battle would pan out. Wiranto will have the quantity of troops (ie. most of the Regional Military Commands) but Prabowo will have the quality of troops (Ie. Kostrad and the red-beret special forces unit Kopassus).

I guess one has to tip their hat to Soeharto’s skill at playing divide and rule that it’s difficult imagining one side winning.
 
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