Indonesia went communist instead of Vietnam

For a start West Papua will become part of New Guinea when the Dutch leave in 64 and the Borneo Confrontation will probably involve US forces as well as Commonwealth. It may result in the whole of Borneo becoming part on Malaysia as without land links Indonesian forces can't resupply in the face of total Commonwealth/US control of the sea and air.
 
I think the concept of an littoral combat ship will come much earlier, control the sea and you seperate the enemy into different pockets that can't support each other. Then take each Island down and move only to the next when it is truely cleared of enemy troops/supporters.
 
For a start West Papua will become part of New Guinea when the Dutch leave in 64 and the Borneo Confrontation will probably involve US forces as well as Commonwealth. It may result in the whole of Borneo becoming part on Malaysia as without land links Indonesian forces can't resupply in the face of total Commonwealth/US control of the sea and air.

Why would the dutch leave? The New Guinea wasn't ready for standing on own feet against Indonesian. The USA would like to have an safe, allied support base, with a friendly population. Also they would love the help from former KNIL soldiers/Marines/marechaussees, they would have a lot of detailed information about the people, land and culture of the different Islands. The best option would be to break Indonisia up into smaller country's. It would also mean that the Anti-war demostrations in the Netherlands would be bigger.
 
coughcough *1965 Indonesian genocide* cough cough

Just googled it (I learn new things everytime), but if this event was "flipped", aka the PKI Coup is 1 or 2 years earlier and is succesfull, i could well be the POD. The CIA/USA/Australia/UK freaks out and New Guinea is now the frontline is the struggle with the Red Menace and the only friendly place that stands between the Indonesians and Australia. Supporting the Dutch against the Indonesian Infiltrators is now paramount.
 

Lusitania

Donor
It would if split apart with island of Sumatra likely home to two separate countries with Aceh splitting into Islamic country if not the people just below. Also several islands would of declared independence and with US and Australia navies patrolling and protecting could see 3-4 other countries
 
Just googled it (I learn new things everytime), but if this event was "flipped", aka the PKI Coup is 1 or 2 years earlier and is succesfull, i could well be the POD. The CIA/USA/Australia/UK freaks out and New Guinea is now the frontline is the struggle with the Red Menace and the only friendly place that stands between the Indonesians and Australia. Supporting the Dutch against the Indonesian Infiltrators is now paramount.

I don't even think a Communist Indonesia would want West Papua, provided the Dutch colonialists leave it for good.

In any case, they'd have such a (lavishly US-funded) rebellion at home that that would seem too much small fish to fry.
 
The plausibility of a Communist Indonesia may depend on whether you buy the "official" Suharto version of the attempted PKI coup of 1965. There is an alternative hypothesis that the PKI did not want a coup and that a "premature Communist coup" was provoked so as to enable the army to strike decisively at the left-wing forces in Indonesia. According to this theory, the PKI's leader Aidit walked into a trap prepared by an associate who was really a double agent. http://www.antenna.nl/wvi/eng/ic/pki/bayang2.html If this is true, then probably the failure of September 30 was sealed in advance...
 
I don’t buy the “official” Soeharto version and don’t deny the mass killings that occurred. I just think that if the alternative is to start believing in versions where the PKI are cherubs you’re just switching the Soeharto version with a left wing version.

I think Wertheim, as far as interpretations of 1965 goes, is the one that tries to take it into conspiracy theory realm. Soeharto was a nobody in 1965. He wasn’t as politically or intellectually sophisticated as the generals who were kidnapped and killed. So the notion that Soeharto unleashed a conspiracy theory of such a large proportion is too farfetched for me and an attempt to compensate for the fact that nobody saw him coming.

Keblinger doesn’t mean “walked into a trap” it means “too smart for their own good”. The PKI’s leadership thought they could work together with a bunch of middle-ranking Army officers (with an axe to grind of their own with the Army’s top generals) to kidnap the Army’s top generals and get Soekarno’s approval for the kidnapping and their removal from office. But then some of the generals died in the kidnapping process and everybody was improvising from that point on...

I’ve read quite a bit about this event and the more I read, the more I think it’s a confluence of things coming together rather than one mastermind (whether PKI, Soeharto, Soekarno, CIA, etc.) being the originator of things.

To answer the original question, what’s the timing of Indonesia going communist. If Indonesia becomes communist in 1965 there’s a good chance it would become part of the Chinese bloc of the communist nations. With Indonesia as part of a Chinese bloc, I wonder if the US-China rapprochement in 1972 would still occur. Would it be the case that the US and the USSR will work together to contain the rise of China and its bloc?
 
If Indonesia goes communist and does not undergo a detente with the west, i could see the Konfrontasi against Britain, Malaysia and Singapore getting uglier. Whether or not this could lead to an Anglo-Indonesian War down the line is up to question (mainly if Indonesia can sort out its internal troubles soon enough), but a continuation of OTL's non-declared warfare is pretty much guaranteed ITTL.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If Indonesia becomes communist in 1965 there’s a good chance it would become part of the Chinese bloc of the communist nations. With Indonesia as part of a Chinese bloc, I wonder if the US-China rapprochement in 1972 would still occur.

If Sino-US rapprochement did occur, would Indonesia come along for the ride? If it does not, do they drift back to the Soviets? What's the economic policy of Red Indonesia? Standard issue Leninist? Maoist? Khmer Rouge-y?

Would it be the case that the US and the USSR will work together to contain the rise of China and its bloc?

That would be an interesting possibility, predicted in one or two early or mid 1960s Heinlein novels and pundit projections.
 
If Sino-US rapprochement did occur, would Indonesia come along for the ride? If it does not, do they drift back to the Soviets? What's the economic policy of Red Indonesia? Standard issue Leninist? Maoist? Khmer Rouge-y?

The PKI’s default foreign policy stance in the communist world was non-alignment. They tended to drift between the USSR in China. If the PKI came to power in the early rather than mid-60s, a Red Indonesia would probably be like North Korea in terms of its foreign policy in the communist world. But by 1965, they’d drifted to China.

Economically they’re similar to Maoism pre-Great Leap Forward. Seizure of land from the class enemies to be redistributed to the peasants.

Actually, I’m not sure Sino-US rapprochement could occur if Indonesia became part of a China-led communist bloc. For a few reasons:

-China now has a more “legitimate” bloc. OTL, the only communist nation (ie. with communist party that is governing not merely contending for power) that sided with China in the Sino-Soviet was Albania (IIRC).

With a red Indonesia in its corner, it’s probably not out of the question that this bloc could attract a few more members into its orbit (North Korea, Laos, Cambodia being prime candidates).

-I don’t think the likes of Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Australia, UK, maybe also South Korea and Japan as well would approve of the US trying to build ties with such a bloc.

This is unlike in OTL where China doesn’t have a bloc of allies and there’s ASEAN.
 
Australia's defence policy almost certainly pivots more strongly to focusing against this threat than in OTL. This will almost certainly mean a nuclear deterrent in some fashion along with the means of delivering it. Even without a 'Red Indonesia' the OTL Australian atomic objectives and programme was well advanced.

The Konfrontasi will almost certainly be more intense - but probably short of all out war. It would be interesting if Britain still withdraws from 'East of Suez' - this would seriously impact how the nations in the region respond militarily and diplomatically.
 
Australia's defence policy almost certainly pivots more strongly to focusing against this threat than in OTL. This will almost certainly mean a nuclear deterrent in some fashion along with the means of delivering it. Even without a 'Red Indonesia' the OTL Australian atomic objectives and programme was well advanced.

The Konfrontasi will almost certainly be more intense - but probably short of all out war. It would be interesting if Britain still withdraws from 'East of Suez' - this would seriously impact how the nations in the region respond militarily and diplomatically.

Agreed.

National service almost certainly remains in place for an extended period. Defence spending is increased during this period.

I can see the British not withdrawing from the far east.

Be interesting to what form the ADF takes in this scenario.
 
Agreed.

National service almost certainly remains in place for an extended period. Defence spending is increased during this period.

I can see the British not withdrawing from the far east.

Be interesting to what form the ADF takes in this scenario.
The Army will still be trying to figure out what to make from the whole Pentropic organisation experiment that's just ending around this time so its a ripe time for reshaping the Army.

Not sure about the RAAF and RAN - though from what I've read, even if the RAAF pushed harder for TSR2 than it was already doing in OTL its probably still not going to be enough to get it over the line. However maybe there are enough butterflies to revisit the OTL prospect of RAAF V-Bombers.
On Scherger’s return to Australia, in May 1963, the Australian Government announced that they had authorised the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Sir Valston Hancock, to evaluate the Canberra replacement. He decided to consider the French Mirage IV, the British TSR-2, and the US Phantom and Vigilante, in that order. At that point the F-111 did not feature on the shortlist. When Hancock visited the UK, it was suggested that V-bombers could be provided to Australia as an interim arrangement until TSR-2 deliveries were made. However, this offer was conditional upon the force being both crewed and under the command of the RAF―a proposal that clearly did not appeal to the Australian Government or the RAAF.
Issue 72, Pathfinder.
 
Top