Indonesia refuses to leave East Timor, INTERFET becomes a major combat operation

On the 30th of August 1999 the people in East Timor went to the polls under the watchful eyes of UNAMET to decide on East Timor's future. They overwhelmingly chose independence from Indonesia.

The decision of independence immediately lead to Indonesian trained and supplied militias killing approximately 1500 people. Indonesia troops and the militias forced almost 200,000 people into West Timor causing a refugee crisis and destroyed East Timorese infrastructure.

The violence quickly lead to Australia gaining a UN resolution to authorise an Australian lead peacekeeping force to East Timor. Australian leaders were so worried this might lead to a war with Indonesia they forward deployed F/A-18s and F-111s to RAAF Tindal. 1st Armoured Regiment (with Leopard 1s), 105mm guns and 155mm guns were moved to Darwin and readied for combat operations. 3rd/4th and 2nd Cavalry Regiment and thousands of infantry troops from several nations were actually deployed to East Timor. A US Marine battalion with organic artillery and armour was moved to the Timor Sea and placed on standby.

Thankfully, none of this was needed. Besides the final "fuck you" to East Timor in the form of destroying as much as they could on the way out the Indonesian military left mostly peacefully and the militias fled over the border into West Timor. But what if they hadn't?

Looking at news from the time it seriously looked like the Indonesian were prepared to fight over this. Many Indonesian didn't think it was actually possible East Timor would vote for independence let alone with such a large margin and believed it to be a UN conspiracy to undermine their nation.

What would need to change for this to happen? How would such a war go? How far would INTERFET go? Would they stop at the new border or would they push further (such as taking the whole island) to create a buffer zone? What sort of troop deployment from Australia, the US and allies would this require?
 
Hopefully it wouldn't last too long, we'd run out of ammo/bombs pretty quickly.

As for how, I don't know given how weak the TNI was compared to the ADF.
 
Hard to see this without Habibie being pushed out, need to find a reason for ABRI/TNI to actually want to do that.
 

Pangur

Donor
Hopefully it wouldn't last too long, we'd run out of ammo/bombs pretty quickly.

As for how, I don't know given how weak the TNI was compared to the ADF.
I thought that we made our ammo and I can't see the US or the UK not allowing more bombs being purchased. Spares for the F111 might be another matter
 
I thought that we made our ammo and I can't see the US or the UK not allowing more bombs being purchased. Spares for the F111 might be another matter

In 1999 the RAAF were cannibalising US aircraft for parts. Plenty of those around.
 
In 1999 the RAAF were cannibalising US aircraft for parts. Plenty of those around.

We had an extensive industrial base in Australia to support the F111, it was a real hassle to find substitutes to support planes also used this industry, things like specialised explosives and electroplating. We used the US FMS pipeline as sources of spares, the US kept oodles of stuff on shelves for us and to support the Tomcat until 2006. The boneyard was last on the list as a source of spares, but it was well and truly on the list which is why we bought the Super Hornet.
 
I thought that we made our ammo and I can't see the US or the UK not allowing more bombs being purchased.

A mixture of both for stuff up to about 5", but import bombs, missiles and big ammo. Since EO has a shelf life and we don't have production lines for big stuff we only keep training and minimal reserve stocks on hand and would have to do a big buy if we expected to need them, hopefully the order would go through quickly and the ship would be a fast one.
 

Pangur

Donor
A mixture of both for stuff up to about 5", but import bombs, missiles and big ammo. Since EO has a shelf life and we don't have production lines for big stuff we only keep training and minimal reserve stocks on hand and would have to do a big buy if we expected to need them, hopefully the order would go through quickly and the ship would be a fast one.
as an aside what is the shelf life of EO?
 
as an aside what is the shelf life of EO?

I don't know exactly, but I think 10 years is a rule of thumb, you could probably inspect simple bombs and declare them safe for longer if they have been stored properly but rocket propellant can't be LOT extended.

It was 20+ year old bombs that weren't properly stored that were behind the Forestall fire in Vietnam.
 

Pangur

Donor
Depends how it's stored.

I don't know exactly, but I think 10 years is a rule of thumb, you could probably inspect simple bombs and declare them safe for longer if they have been stored properly but rocket propellant can't be LOT extended.

It was 20+ year old bombs that weren't properly stored that were behind the Forestall fire in Vietnam.

Thanks for the answers
 
In OTL getting the ASLAV's of 2 CAV and the M113's of 5/7 RAR where delivered unopposed on the RANs only amphib capability, HMAS Tobruk and the last minute lease of HMAS Jervis Bay (the Dili express). Both Manoora and Kanimibla were still in refit/rebuild. An opposed landing would be quite different. For Bill Clinton to commit the MEU would be a big ask.
 
Top