Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

[GSD310]

@C2sg and @deepoceanblue, I’ve made the necessary corrections. Got carried away because this is one of those things that I know will happen when beginning to write this TL 2 years ago .

Holy shit. Now the bombs have dropped and the civil war has officially started. I'm not well versed in politics but Tutut really exposed herself as an extremely petty person. She might have her own reason for it but to external viewers she's exactly that petty. This looks like there will be a PDI-PDIP style schism that ironically haven't happened yet in this timeline. Great update, now I can sleep in peace and hyped up.

I based Tutut’s behavior towards Try ITTL on how she acted when she became a Vice Chairwoman of Golkar during Harmoko’s chairmanship of Golkar (1993-1998). In that particular situation, despite being formally subordinate to Harmoko, she began to establish herself as a political actor and became something of a rival of Harmoko's. By 1998, she was becoming very powerful and influential. Not only did she become minister, she actually did better than Habibie and Harmoko in terms of getting her "people" appointed as cabinet ministers. It has been speculated that if Soeharto did not fall, she would become the Chairwoman of Golkar and be in a position to succeed to the presidency.

https://tirto.id/skenario-soeharto-untuk-memuluskan-tutut-jadi-presiden-cFo7 (Indonesian).

Try's stance towards Tutut was at first to avoid confrontation with Tutut while occasionally showing the power that he has as president (ie. taking Tommy Soeharto to court) as gentle warnings to Tutut of what he can do if pushed too hard. As a starting point and a reflection of OTL Try Sutrisno's stance towards them even up to the present day, Try is not hostile towards Soeharto and his children. ITTL, when he's gone after special treatment to the Soeharto children, it's in the context of economic recovery not anti-Soeharto sentiment. But Tutut (not to mention the siblings and cronies whispering in her ear) interpret this as Try going after her business interests. As time goes on though Try becomes more and more resentful.

The break between the PDI and PDI-P has not happened yet ITTL because the Try Government is not hostile towards Megawati and her supporters the way Soeharto's was. So they're willing to wait and prepare themselves for the next PDI National Congress (June 2001) where Megawati can hopefully become chairwoman. Try is annoyed at having to let go of a minister who is Megawati supporter (Minister of Public Works Sutjiipto) though Try's subordinates are still hoping that Megawati would formally become a part of Try's coalition. As you can see from the times Megawati has appeared on been mentioned in the TL though, it could not be taken for granted that Megawati would become part of Try's coalition.

 

[C2sg]

@C2sg and @deepoceanblue, I’ve made the necessary corrections. Got carried away because this is one of those things that I know will happen when beginning to write this TL 2 years ago .



I based Tutut’s behavior towards Try ITTL on how she acted when she became a Vice Chairwoman of Golkar during Harmoko’s chairmanship of Golkar (1993-1998). In that particular situation, despite being formally subordinate to Harmoko, she began to establish herself as a political actor and became something of a rival of Harmoko's. By 1998, she was becoming very powerful and influential. Not only did she become minister, she actually did better than Habibie and Harmoko in terms of getting her "people" appointed as cabinet ministers. It has been speculated that if Soeharto did not fall, she would become the Chairwoman of Golkar and be in a position to succeed to the presidency.

https://tirto.id/skenario-soeharto-untuk-memuluskan-tutut-jadi-presiden-cFo7 (Indonesian).

Try's stance towards Tutut was at first to avoid confrontation with Tutut while occasionally showing the power that he has as president (ie. taking Tommy Soeharto to court) as gentle warnings to Tutut of what he can do if pushed too hard. As a starting point and a reflection of OTL Try Sutrisno's stance towards them even up to the present day, Try is not hostile towards Soeharto and his children. ITTL, when he's gone after special treatment to the Soeharto children, it's in the context of economic recovery not anti-Soeharto sentiment. But Tutut (not to mention the siblings and cronies whispering in her ear) interpret this as Try going after her business interests. As time goes on though Try becomes more and more resentful.

The break between the PDI and PDI-P has not happened yet ITTL because the Try Government is not hostile towards Megawati and her supporters the way Soeharto's was. So they're willing to wait and prepare themselves for the next PDI National Congress (June 2001) where Megawati can hopefully become chairwoman. Try is annoyed at having to let go of a minister who is Megawati supporter (Minister of Public Works Sutjiipto) though Try's subordinates are still hoping that Megawati would formally become a part of Try's coalition. As you can see from the times Megawati has appeared on been mentioned in the TL though, it could not be taken for granted that Megawati would become part of Try's coalition.

As you based Tutut's behaviour ITTL from OTL, @GSD310 you have done a superb job because of its plausbility, now that you've mentioned it. Keep up the good effort, I am looking forward to more good stuff from you as you've done for the past 2 years.

 

[GSD310]

8th June 2000:
Chairwoman of Golkar of Tutut was defiant. After hearing the President’s announcement, she convened a meeting attended by Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani, Treasurer of Golkar Akbar Tandjung, DPR members Hartono, Ary Mardjono, and Fuad Bawazier. It was a short meeting and it ended with Tutut issuing a statement that she declared the National Work Meeting closed and that she was freeing Golkar members from attending the Extraordinary National Congress.

Tutut’s supporters did not need to be told what to do. The hotel where they were staying were suddenly crowded with urgent check out requests after the President had completed his announcement. Akbar Tandjung who got the duty of personally checking the situation reported back that were panicking all the while claiming to reporters camped outside that they “had not heard” the President’s announcement. By midnight, delegations of Tutut supporters who had been in Jakarta for the National Work Meeting, had gathered at Soekarno-Hatta Airport’s Domestic Terminal. Those who were lucky managed to fly out of Jakarta. Most spent the night at the airport.

The Try supporters enjoyed the sight of Tutut supporters panicking but were not without their own dilemma. All around Indonesia, Golkar members who supported Try were coming to their local Golkar branch office to hand over their Golkar membership cards. Some came by themselves and some in groups; some handed their cards politely while some called for Tutut’s resignation; some made it to their local Golkar branch to hand over their cards to bemused security guards while some left their membership cards in the trashcan. If Try supporters were no longer members of Golkar, how could they take over Golkar?

And all of this were broadcast on television. TVRI went with a restrained broadcast while the private TV channels invited experts to provide analysis. Calling in from Ohio, United States, Indonesian expert Bill Liddle wondered how much longer Golkar could last.

RCTI got Chairman of PDI Soerjadi to appear. He gave very strong praise and support for Tutut for having “the courage” to expel Golkar members who were not supportive of her chairwomanship.

Anteve got Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil to appear on their broadcast. Matori smiled when he was asked how he felt as “someone who got into a coalition with Golkar?”

“Let me correct you there, the PPP never got into a coalition with Golkar, the PPP got into a coalition with President Try. You can ask Gus Dur, Mas Amien, Mr. Habibie, Mr. Wahono and everybody else and they’d say the same thing”, said Matori “This tonight just confirms what we have felt since late last year that there is President Try’s Golkar and Chairwoman Tutut’s Golkar.”

“So you’re saying that Golkar is split into two?” asked the news anchor.

“Well I think to be fair it’s been like that for some time now”, replied Matori.

9th June 2000:
President Try Sutrisno arrived in Jakarta at 1 AM. He immediately got into the Presidential car and was quickly transported to the Presidential Palace where Vice President JB Sumarlin and the cabinet had assembled. Try declared the meeting open by explaining that yes, he had approved of an “Operation” to ensure that his supporters in the DPR and in the provinces would have a place where they could be protected. He also explained that what he was doing was in accordance with Golkar’s constitution.

Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar interrupted. Rather bluntly, he asked what the President’s real intention towards Golkar was at this stage. Try said it to Rachmat Witoelar and the entire room became pale. It was said that those present neither agreed or disagreed with the President’s intention. They just struggled to process that it had truly come to this as far as Golkar's fate was concerned.

After the meeting, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman fronted the media, he explained that the President and cabinet had agreed on the following:

*9th June 2000 will be a public holiday to create a conducive situation.
*In response to reports of violence and potential violence in various locations across Indonesia between Try and Tutut supporters, all 4 branches of ABRI are ordered on alert and to take up position to prevent violence and maintain security.

Inside the Presidential Palace, Try and Sumarlin waited for their next meeting. Sumarlin told Try that whatever is going to happen with Golkar that things be settled quickly, otherwise it will lead to social unrest and can effect the economy. Try nodded.

Try’s next meeting was with the heads of all the bodies mandated by the 1945 Constitution. In addition to himself and the Vice President there were Chairman of DPR/MPR Harmoko, Chief Justice of Supreme Court Albert Hasibuan, Chairman of DPA Rudini, and Chairman of BPK Kunarto. Try told them the same thing that as he told the cabinet about his intentions towards Golkar. There were grievous expressions in the room though all realized that Try was serious.

It fell to Try and Hasibuan to front the press. It was 3 AM, members of the press at the Presidential Palace were tired but forced themselves alert when they saw Try stepped up to the podium.

The President himself looked tired as he explained what was going on. He began in his capacity as Chairman of Golkar’s Council of Patrons repeating his decision to freeze the Golkar National Leadership Council and his intention to hold an Extraordinary National Congress. He made mention of Tutut’s decision to send her followers home from Jakarta and said that this was a contravention of Golkar’s Constitution.

“I regret the Chairwoman’s decision because it has been my hope all along to settle the current situation purely within Golkar’s internal mechanisms. Now after the Chairwoman’s decision to defy me, I must now handle Golkar’s situation in my capacity as President of the Republic of Indonesia.

After consultations with cabinet ministers earlier tonight, in particular with the Minister of Home Affairs and the Minister of Legal Affairs, and after consulting with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, I have decided that it can be established that there are there have been three occasions in recent times where Golkar could be deemed to be in contravention of the law. These are:

-The way in which certain Golkar members in the DPR walked out during the nomination process of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court;

-The expulsion of over 200 Golkar DPR members who have supported the nomination process of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court;

-And the sending home of certain members of Golkar to avoid the holding of a Golkar Extraordinary National Congress.

It is the stance of this government that the above actions of Golkar are in contravention of Article 7A of Law No. 3 of 1975 Regarding Political Parties and Golkar. Namely that political parties and Golkar are obliged to adhere and enforce Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution. By interfering with the nomination of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and expelling its own DPR members, Golkar is preventing the 1945 Constitution to be carried out by going after the institutions of the Supreme Court and the DPR. This in addition to violating Golkar's own constitution.

As a result of what has been outlined above, it is also the stance of the government that the grounds now exist for Golkar to be frozen as an organization.

With respect to legal processes as outlined by Article 14 section (2) of Law No. 3 of 1975, herewith I make an official request to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court to investigate and confirm whether the legal grounds I mentioned above does exist and to provide advice to the President on what steps to take at the conclusion of the investigation.”

Hasibuan then stepped forward and explained that by law he is required to question and obtain information from the Chairwoman of Golkar. He adviced that the best step for the Chairwoman of Golkar right now now would be to cooperate with the questioning and make her case.

Try then took questions from the reporters. The first was from foreign journalist Step Vaessen. As could be expected, the question was something the local press could not contemplate.

“Could you elaborate to us what is meant by “frozen”?” asked Vaessen.

“Frozen in this case means that all of Golkar’s activities will cease”, explained Try “In my capacity as Chairman of Golkar’s Council of Patrons, I’m only freezing the activities of the National Leadership Council in preparation for an Extraordinary National Congress so there’s still some activity there. Under the mechanism of Law No.3 of 1975, the entire organization of Golkar and all of its activities will cease.”

“Is this the same as a ban?” asked Vaessen.

“If the frozen status is permanent and if the organization ceases to have activity, then yes, it is in effect a ban”, said Try.

---
At the Department of Home Affairs, Harsudiono Hartas was watching the announcement when his aide told him a guest had arrived. It was fast approaching 3.30 AM but there was no rest tonight.

Ary Mardjono made his entrance. He served as Secretary of Golkar under Harmoko and was now a Golkar DPR member who supported Tutut. As Commander of the Central Java Regional Military Command (1985-1987), Harsudiono had been Ary’s superior. They were not close but he was a familiar enough face that Harsudiono picked him as someone from the “other side” to contact.

“The President has crossed the line”, said Ary.

“The Chairwoman crossed it a long time ago”, countered Harsudiono.

“Why did you call me?” asked Ary “It’s certainly not to reminisce about old times.”

“I think it’s time for our two sides to negotiate and if we’re lucky, maybe even get the President and the Chairwoman at the same table”, said Harsudiono.

“What makes you think the Chairwoman would be willing to negotiate?” challenged Ary.

“Because Golkar is a great organization and it deserves a better fate than to be “frozen””, said Harsudiono.

“There are legal processes to go through before the President decides whether he’ll freeze Golkar, I’d rather wait”, countered Ary.

“Look around you”, said Harsudiono “Your Chairwoman’s supporters are doing backflips to escape Jakarta because they don’t want to be part of the President’s planned removal of the Chairwoman and the President’s supporters no longer want to be part of Golkar. Where does that leave Golkar?”

Ary Mardjono looked at the television screen and then back at Harsudiono.

“Forget about lasting until the 2002 Elections, Golkar hadn’t even lasted the night”, said Harsudiono.

Ary looked at the Minister of Home Affairs like he was swallowing a bitter pill. Not wanting to believe that he was part of this.

“Golkar is dead”, said Harsudiono firmly “And we need to negotiate the funeral arrangements.”

---
To be continued…

OTL Step Vaessen has been in Indonesia since 1996.

Ary Mardjono being on the staff of Harsudiono in the past comes from https://ecommons.cornell.edu/bitstr...1106953915_155_178.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

It says there that he was the assistant for planning in Central Java between 1983 and 1985. Harsudiono’s years as commander in Central Java were 1985 to 1987. It’s not made explicit what the two’s relationship were like but for the sake of the ITTL, I’ll assume there was some overlap of their time there.

 

[deepoceanblue]

Fun times!
Btw if you declare tututs golkar as an illegal organization, you could invoke art 169 kuhp and have everyone in it arrested

 

[GSD310]

Fun times!
Btw if you declare tututs golkar as an illegal organization, you could invoke art 169 kuhp and have everyone in it arrested

It could possibly come to that...

Just a random thought, one of the things I found about the New Order as I’m researching some of the things that you all saw in the last few updates (how the Chief Justice can be removed, the procedure for freezing a political party, the procedure for removing a Golkar chairperson) is that as dominated the regime was by Soeharto, it did institute a lot of legal mechanisms for various emergency situations. It’s very interesting find out about all these mechanisms.

 

[GSD310]

9th June 2000:
If one was not a political junkie or a Golkar member or a civil defensemen doing the rounds at night, they would not have followed developments. And so it was that Indonesians woke up finding out that they could have the day off, that security had been tightened all around Indonesia, and that Golkar was dying.

ABRI had moved quickly that night. ABRI Chief of General Staff Luhut Panjaitan was put in charge of monitoring the deployment of personnel. For the Army’s Regional Military Commanders it was a chance to show their stuff. Most of the spotlight fell on Commander of the Jakarta Regional Military Command TB Hasanuddin who was in charge of ensuring security in Jakarta. After making sure the Presidential Palace was secure, Hasanuddin was seen beefing up security around the Golkar National Headquarters Building. A notable mention went to Commander of the West Java Regional Military Command Agus Wirahadikusumah who prevented clashes in Bandung between Try supporters and Tutut supporters after the latter group returned from Jakarta in the early hours of the morning by land.

Commander of ABRI Wiranto was also doing his part. Privately by phone to Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut and then publicly through an official statement, Wiranto encouraged Tutut to be “her father’s daughter” and cooperate.

By the time the nation had finished breakfast, it was clear that the Extraordinary Golkar National Congress that President Try had called in the previous night would not occur. Most of the Try supporters had by this time given up their Golkar membership cards. Meanwhile the Tutut supporters were on their way back or are arriving back in their provinces not knowing what will happen to them; despite rumors to the contrary, orders had been given NOT to arrest these Tutut supporters.

Tutut herself spent the morning meeting with Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani, Treasurer of Golkar Akbar Tandjung, DPR members Hartono, Ary Mardjono, and Fuad Bawazier, Yusril Ihza Mahendra and Prabowo Subianto. Ary Mardjono had conveyed the request for negotiation. The request was initially treated with ridicule.

Once everybody had begun discussing and thinking about it, however, there was more sense than silliness in the idea of negotiating with the government. Tutut remained defiant and wanted to ignore the questioning the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court was about to put her through. She was aghast that all around her wanted to negotiate with the government. Slowly but surely, though, Tutut was brought around.

Those in the meeting remembered the moment that Tutut agreed to negotiate with the government. It was when Prabowo asked Yusril whether Tutut’s possibility at becoming president would be at risk. Ever the constitutional lawyer, Yusril had the answer immediately. He pointed to the MPR’s 2nd Resolution of 1973 on Procedures for the Election of the President and Vice President which states one of the requirements of being a presidential candidate as:

“Not being involved whether directly or indirectly with all activities which betrays the Unitary State of the Repblic of Indonesia, such as the 30th September Movement of the PKI, and/or any other Banned organizations.”

“Now if you continue to defy the President and he’s pushed into a situation where he freezes Golkar and since he’s already shown signs to equate a freeze with a ban, the “other side” can try to argue that you are not eligible to run for President”, explained Yusril.

It didn’t take long for Tutut to change her mind.

---
The negotiations were held at Golkar’s National Headquarters at Slipi, West Jakarta at 2 PM. The President was represented by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Tutut was represented by DPR Member Hartono, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, and Akbar Tandjung.

The negotiations were civil with members of the team occasionally ducking out of the room to get instructions. By 6 PM the following points had been agreed to and awaited the President and the Chairwoman’s signatures:

*Golkar will officially be dissolved on 9th August 2000.

*It will use its remaining time to “wrap up” its administrative, operational and internal affairs. It will be forbidden from political activities up during these 2 months.

*A maximum of two successor organizations to Golkar will be allowed to exist and that this existence will be legally acknowledged through a new Political Parties Law

*DPR and DPRD members of Golkar across the country will be permitted to form alternate groupings to facilitate their work.

*The Chairwoman of Golkar will guarantee immediate passage of the Elections Bill and the Composition and Status of the MPR/DPR/DPRD Bill.

*Dakab Foundation will be required to amend its constitution and cease to provide funds to any of Golkar’s successor organizations. No transfer of funds will be permitted during this time.

*2 Golkar seats in the DPR are presently vacant; one left behind by Hajriyanto Thohari to become State Minister of Youth and Sports the other by Syamsul Mu’arif to become Governor of South Kalimantan. The President and the Chairwoman will nominate 1 replacement each to these seats.

*Golkar will hand over its National, Provincial, Regency and Municipal Headquarter buildings to the government to be used as the National, Provincial, Regency, and Municipal Headquarter buildings of the KPU, which will be formed upon the passing of the Elections Law.

The contents of the agreement were announced jointly by all 6 men who participated in the negotiations.
---
News that Golkar’s end as an organization had being negotiated glued the nation to their screens. Those who were not so overtly political or were only casual political observers shook their head in amazement. This was Golkar. It had participated in 6 Legislative Elections since 1971 and won all 6. Now it was deemed to be dying.

Try and Tutut supporters, in spite of their differences, shared a feeling of sorrow that came with being a Golkar member. There were more than a few tears shed as far as they were concerned. At the same time, it was a relief to see what was happening. It was becoming difficult for cadres at a grassroots level to work together. Just as the President and the Chairwoman were locked in a cold war, Golkar cadres across provincial, regency, and municipal branches found themselves taking sides and engaged in a daily struggle for power.

By the time the events of the last night occurred, Try and Tutut supporters alike could agree that Golkar was finished. The Try supporters wanted to leave Golkar because they were looking for a chance to at last fight the Tutut supporters. On the other hand, Tutut supporters, after seeing the President’s response to the expulsion of his supporters in the DPR, thought that their best chance to fight Try was if they withdrew from Golkar and create their organization.

The two people in the middle of the storm themselves thought that Golkar was finished. The President was said to have “given up” on Golkar around the time he decided to form the Pancasila Coalition in August-September 1999. Unkind critics in the Tutut camp said that from the on, the President spent more time with this coalition than he did with Golkar. Tutut held true to Golkar, but even she faltered when it was made clear that her potential candidacy for president could be put in doubt if she resisted. Her decision to begin negotiating Golkar’s dissolvement was the final nail in Golkar’s coffin.

The agreement was brought first to Cendana Street. There Tutut awaited for the agreement, which was now being dubbed the Slipi Agreement. In a room where cameras had been allowed in to record the moment, Tutut looked at the agreement. She spent a few brief moments taking off her glasses and wiping her eyes with tissue and then she took a deep breath and signed the agreement.

“This is a historic but sad day, I hope that the spirit of Golkar will live on in its successor organizations”, said Tutut when she made her statement “I call on those who have loyally supported me to keep calm and maintain order as Golkar begins to make its final journey.”

The agreement was then brought to the Presidential Palace. A tired looking Try brought it to a podium and after spending a few moments to contemplate what he was about to do, signed it. Once he had so, Try lifted up the signed agreement. The cameras snapped, focusing on the two signatures at the bottom of the agreement.

“This has been a historic day and it will certainly be a landmark in Indonesia’s political history”, said Try in his speech “But the great significance of today will be the fact that we have gone through out without any turmoil and without risking the economic recovery of the nation. I join the Chairwoman in calling for calm and order amongst Golkar members as Golkar begins its transition.”

Though not denying the historic nature of what was happening, in private discussions reporters agreed that both the President and the Chairwoman were “underwhelming” in terms of the speeches they delivered. One anonymous reporter aptly commented that it was like watching “Mommy and Daddy sign divorce papers and then explain to the kids that it’s all going to be okay except the kids knew from some time ago that the divorce was coming.”

10th June 2000:
Try had just completed his walk around the Presidential Palace when he saw Harsudiono Hartas waiting. He had invited his Four Horsemen to come the Palace to discuss the situation that had happened yesterday and Harsudiono was the first to arrive. The Minister of Home Affairs had a wry smile as he handed Try a water bottle.

“Did you ever think that things would end like that?” asked Try.

“I only knew that Golkar was going to break into two, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono “Apart from that, I’m just along for the ride.”

Try took a drink.

“The question is, did you think that things would end like that when you authorized me to approach the other side?” asked Harsudiono.

“I had a hunch”, said Try “And the hunch told me that when push comes to shove, she was going to put her presidential prospects in front of Golkar’s existence. Even without us trying to approach her for negotiation, someone from her end was going to tell her about her qualification.”

“You’re getting good at this”, said Harsudiono chuckling before turning serious “Speaking of presidential prospects, what about your own presidential prospects?”

“I think I want to start preparing my battle formation for the next 2 years before I even think of answering that question”, said Try.

---
And that ladies and gentlemen is how Golkar is on its way out.

The requirement that got Tutut to change her mind is Article 1, section 1, letter l of the 2nd Resolution of the 1973 MPR (http://www.tatanusa.co.id/tapmpr/73TAPMPRS-II.pdf)

 

[Pilatypus]

That divorce comment made me laugh. This whole affair sure was intense and had blown up spectacularly. And the great Golkar ship finally sinking after being split in half. Oh Soeharto must be rolling in his grave seeing his party destroyed by his daughter's obtuseness. You did a great job.

 

[Unknown]

Assuming Try is still in office in 2004-2005, I wonder how he handles the Indian Ocean earthquake-tsunami; over 170,000 of the dead were in Aceh province...

 

[GSD310]

That divorce comment made me laugh. This whole affair sure was intense and had blown up spectacularly. And the great Golkar ship finally sinking after being split in half. Oh Soeharto must be rolling in his grave seeing his party destroyed by his daughter's obtuseness. You did a great job.

I think part of it is Tutut being obtuse (ie. thinking Try's going to just roll over, not realizing Try still has considerable power even though he's not as a powerful as Soeharto). But I would say that part of it is just the nature of their rivalry. One is Soeharto's constitutional successor, the other is his biological successor. If they (And their followers) can't get along, it's difficult.

Keep in mind

Assuming Try is still in office in 2004-2005, I wonder how he handles the Indian Ocean earthquake-tsunami; over 170,000 of the dead were in Aceh province...

Best hope I'm still updating after that long. Still too far away in the ITTL future to see clearly how he would ract.

 

[GSD310]

10th June 2000:
Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar, Navy Chief of Staff Indroko Sastrowiryono, Air Force Chief of Staff Hanafie Asnan, and Chief of Police Yun Mulyana took out a full page ad on a newspaper to call on “all sides” within Golkar to respect the Slipi Agreement and to abide in an orderly fashion to its terms.

Meanwhile, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas held a press conference to explain the situation of the past few days. He said that the government has not fallen so there was no need to be concerned. The government still stands strong and will go on to complete its full term.

“What will happen to the political party system in Indonesia given that Golkar will no longer be a part of it in two months’ time?” asked a reporter.

“I will be introducing a new Political Parties Bill to reflect the changes that are occurring”, replied Harsudiono “At the very least we’re looking at 4 political parties participating in the next election. The PPP and PDI as well as the two successor organizations to Golkar.”

Later in the day, Wiranto emerged out of a meeting with the President. Wiranto said that the President has now ordered ABRI to no longer be on alert though there the securities of National, Provincial, and Regency Golkar Headquarters will still be under guard.

12th June 2000:
The President and his delegation touched down at Bengkulu today where he was welcomed by Governor of Bengkulu Afifuddin Thaib and Head of the National Disaster Management Coordinating Office Rilo Pambudi. On the 4th, Bengkulu and its surrounds, most notably at Enggano Island, were struck by a 7.9 earthquake. 100 died while some 2,500 were injured. Try inspected some of the reconstruction effort going on and talked with some of the victims and the displaced over lunch at an evacuation camp.

As he toured and talk with some of the displaced, Try became annoyed that much of the problem was the same with the Earthquake at Banggai Island with not a whole lot of coordination going on and various government agencies doing their own thing. The foreign aid workers which had been sent from various countries to assist also complained of the same thing and said that communicable disease had spread in the evacuation area because of “lack of care” by the Indonesian authorities. The displaced inhabitants also had some complains saying that they were sleeping in tents when the officials were sleeping in comfortable accommodation.

Try took a helicopter ride, looking grimly at the physical damage suffered by Bengkulu. Switching the helicopter for the small plane, he arrived after lunch at Enggano Island which was very close to the epicenter of the earthquake. He was moved by the sight of locals dealing with the situation especially a group of primary school children trying to get on with their end of year exams.

Try flew home to Jakarta with plenty of food for thought.

13th June 2000:
The DPR today unanimously passed the Election Bill and the Composition and Status of the MPR/DPR/DPRD Bill into law. The Golkar DPR Members supporting Tutut kept their word and encouraged their allies in the PPP and PDI to support the law. A pleased Chairman of DPR Harmoko said that the government can now fulfill the mandate that had been entrusted to it by the MPR of holding an election in 2002.

The President visited BPS’ Head Office where he and Head of BPS Gunawan Sumodiningrat inspected the BPS’ training programs for statisticians who will be sent out to conduct the census.

14th June 2000:
The President met with Minister of Tourism Soeyono. Soeyono reported that tourism numbers continued to be strong. In light of the Sipadan Kidnappings in Malaysia, foreign tourists were once again preferring to go to Indonesia rather than Malaysia for its perceived stability. Try shrugged that this was Indonesia’s luck and asked for tourism marketing to be intensified. Soeyono also announced plans to increase tourism in Central Java, North Sumatra, and North Sulawesi. This was readily approved by the President.

The President officially signed off on the Election Law and the Composition and Status of the MPR/DPR/DPRD Law.

16th June 2000:
The President today swore in Lt. Gen. (Ret.) HBL Mantiri as the new Chairman of the KPU. Mantiri’s name had been floating around in the last week as someone who was acceptable to both Try and Tutut supporters as well as someone who was apolitical and did not take sides. In his speech, the President called upon the KPU to immediately begin preparations for the 2002 Elections.

Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Albert Hasibuan emerged out of a meeting with the President. Hasibuan announced that the President has revoked the request for advice on whether or not there are grounds to freeze Golkar as an organization.

There was a rush of activities at the DPR to cap off a busy day. Harmoko presided over important administrative changes in the DPR today. He first met with Vice Chairman of DPR Theo Sambuaga and DPR Member Hartono who announced that they and the other Golkar Tutut supporters in the DPR are formally withdrawing from Golkar’s DPR grouping. It was announced that they would be known as the National Functional Development Grouping (Fraksi Karya Pembangunan Bangsa). Hartono will be the leader of this gouping.

The same day, Harmoko met with Leader of Golkar in the DPR Irsyad Sudiro. Irsyad announced that Golkar’s DPR grouping were officially dissolving and that in its place would be the Indonesian Functional Development Grouping (Fraksi Karya Pembangunan Indonesia). Irsyad Sudiro will be the leader of this grouping.

17th June 2000:
The people of the City of Bengkulu were visited by none other than Megawati Soekarnoputri today. Unlike the complaints and criticism which awaited Try some days prior, Megawati was greeted with cheers of “Mega! Mega! Mega!”. Together with her husband, Taufiq Kiemas, and her loyal entourage, Megawati handed out donations of basic commodities.

19th June 2000:
Arriving this morning in Malang, East Java, President Try Sutrisno inaugurated a milk factory belonging to Greenfields. In his address, the President called on those in the agricultural sector to add value to their commodities by creating factories and facilities such as the one he was presently opening. Accompanied by Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Governor of East Java Haris Sudarno as he toured the factory, Try expressed his satisfaction.

From the Greenfields Factory, Try toured the surrounding Babadan Village. He made note that people were appreciative of the electricity that runs through the village becase it helped with the small business there but were barely using the toilet blocs the government had been building. They just laughed amongst themselves when Try told them to use the toilets.

From Malang, Try headed to Surabaya. With State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari and Chairman of KONI IGK Manila by his side, Try officially declared open the 15th National Sporting Week and inaugurated the Glora Delta Stadium.

20th June 2000:
Try met with Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar, Minister of Health Azrul Azwar and State Minister of Rural Development Agung Laksono. Edi Sudrajat and OCDS Sugeng Subroto also sat in the meeting. The meeting went through the government’s rural development policy including Try’s experience at Babadan the previous day.

The President approved of amending his rural development policy. If in the previous year he called for sanitation to be prioritized this time he called for electrification to be prioritized. He specifically called for all of Indonesia’s villages to be electrified by 2004, the pre-crisis target for full electrification of Indonesian villages.

21st June 2000:
Megawati Soekarnoputri held a 30th Anniversary of Soekarno’s death commemoration at her private residence. The highest ranking government official to attend was Minister of Transmigration Hendropriyono who spent some time talking to Taufiq Kiemas. Hendropriyono asked what Megawati’s stance towards the government was after Golkar’s break-up. Taufiq insisted that Megawati remains committed of her goal contesting the PDI Chairwomanship. When Hendropriyono asked if Megawati would switch the PDI’s support in the DPR from Tutut to the President, Taufiq could not commit.

Meanwhile, Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut had dinner with all of her Golkar supporters in the DPR. Tutut said that the struggle begins anew now that it is clear that Golkar would not make it in “one piece”. She instructs her followers to begin creating a new “successor organization” for Golkar and to prepare that organization to achieve victory at the 2002 Elections.

22nd June 2000:
The President today played host to Prime Minister John Howard of Australia. Howard, accompanied by Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Downer, will certainly be paying his last visit to Indonesia. Try, who was accompanied Edi Sudrajat and State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, paid tribute to Howard; arguing that part of Indonesia’s recovery was due to the support Howard had given to Try.

Howard however was keen to discuss various issues in foreign policy with Try. Try was friendly and diplomatic but caught on to the fact that Howard was most keen to know about the purpose of Indonesia showing signs of wanting to increase defense spending. Edi and Soerjadi agreed that Australia seems to be overly curious about what Indonesia wants to do.

Try took Howard to visit the Jakarta Fair once the meeting at the Presidential Palace were over. Howard came out of the Jakarta Fair saying that Indonesia was going to have a big year economically.

23rd June 2000:
Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais emerged out of Friday Prayer and lunch at the Presidential Palace. Amien said that the President was willing to attend the Muhammadiyah National Congress to be held on 21st-23rd July 2000. Amien also confirmed that he will be running for re-election as Chairman of Muhammadiyah.

That night, the President attended a dinner hosted by the KADIN. In front of the nation’s most prominent businessmen, Try said in his speech that he was committed to political stability and said that he would not allow what has been achieved through economic recovery to be undone. He went on to say in his speech:

“It’s not in anybody’s interest for there to be political unrest, that’s why 2 weeks ago I declared a public holiday; so that people aren’t wandering the streets and demonstrating when the situation was tense. Thankfully the situation with Golkar was settled quickly.

Not in anybody’s interest for there to be political unrest. If they want to take me on, they can do so by participating in our political system.”

26th June 2000:
Harsudiono Hartas today appeared at the DPR to introduce the Political Parties Bill. The bill contains the following provisions, among others:
*New political parties may be formed if they contained at least 10,000 initial members as well as having presence in 100% of all provinces and 70% of all regencies/municipalities.
*Political parties both new and existing may only compete in elections if they fulfilled the above criterion.
*All political parties are obliged to have Pancasila as their Sole Principle.
*Past regulations regarding the “Freezing” of political parties to remain the same.

The President opened a P4 Training Session at Bogor Presidential Palace. It was the first P4 Training Session to be held by Chairman of BP-7 Agus Widjojo. In his speech, Try said that Pancasila should be more, not less, relevant in the 21st century. He praised Agus for creating new training sessions that are less “indoctrinating” more “dialogue-oriented.”

27th June 2000:
The President chaired a meeting attended the Vice President and the Seventh Development Cabinet. On the agenda are recent economic developments.

*Minister of Economics and National Development Soedradjad Djiwandono reported that the abolition of sales tax from 3 months ago are doing wonders for the economy. It is encouraging people to spend the money that they have. It is generating economic activity and employment. The construction sector has at last begun to get moving again. Jakarta and Surabaya are experiencing an economic boom though State Mnister of the Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones Jusuf Kalla reports he’s encouraging investment into other cities such as Medan, Manado, and Ujung Pandang. Head of BKPM Mari Elka Pangestu reports that she is also encouraging domestic investors to expand outside of Jakarta and Java.

*Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti cautioned against an increase in imports. It can be a sign that people are bringing in equipment to help set up their business or it can be a sign that the rich now have more money in their pockets again to spare. It’s a matter of ensuring that the imports are better directed rather than anything.

*Minister of Employment and Small Business Fahmi Idris reported that employment continues to pick up though businesses are not yet at the point where they’re competing with each other (ie. dramatically raising salaries) to get employees.

The President said that his goal is to maximize economic growth for the year and he remains committed to that goal. He called upon the ministers to find ways to allow businesses to be more efficient and minimize costs to mitigate as best as possible the risk of inflation. He also instructed government ministers to ensure that development to not be concentrated in Jakarta and Java and encourage more investment in other regions of Indonesia.

After the cabinet meeting was over, Try told Sumarlin about what John Howard said last week when he was visiting Jakarta. Sumarlin agreed that Indonesia was going to have a “big year” and that it’s not a question of if, but by how much the economy will exceed 6.1%”.

---

The earthquake that the government is struggling to handle is the 2000 Enggano Earthquake which happened OTL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Enggano_earthquake

The National Sports Week is also as OTL https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pekan_Olahraga_Nasional_XV

The Political Parties Bill is a combo between the New Order's Political Parties and Golkar Law and the 2002 Political Parties Law but with the criterion to establish political parties be made tighter. http://hukum.unsrat.ac.id/uu/uu_31_02.htm This is to reflect that the motive for allowing new political parties is not democratization but ensuring a way for Try and Tutut to be able to make their own political parties.

OTL Indonesia grew by 4.9% in 2000 which was pretty good for a country beset by instability and still feeling the effects of the crisis. The assumption for Indonesia having a big year in 2000 here is that it is more stable and that it's out of the crisis.

 

[GSD310]

29th June 2000:
The President and State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Bacelius Ruru hosted the CEOs of State-Owned Enterprises at the Presidential Palace. Bacelius Ruru took the opportunity of introducing the new CEO of Telkom Hasnul Suhaimi.

In his keynote speech Try called the State-Owned Enterprises the “lucky” ones. Most had to change management techniques and strategies to adapt and survive during the economic crisis but there hadn’t been wide-scale privatization as the likes of the IMF were envisioning. Try said that now’s not the time to rest on laurels but to continue to improve and that their real shareholders were the people of Indonesia. The speech was notable for providing a glimpse of what Try wanted for Indonesia:

“What’s amazing about the last 3 decades is not the economic growth or the progress in development, though that in itself is impressive. What’s amazing is that all the growth and progress has occurred despite the fact that there have been distortions in the economy; taking the shape of special privileges and favors to those closest to power.

The growth and and progress shouldn’t justify these economic distortions. On the contrary, imagine how much more the nation could grow and progress without these distortions.”

30th June 2000:
Observed by Head of BPS Gunawan Sumodiningrat, the President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati participated in the 2000 Census. As a sticker is stuck to the Presidential Palace to indicate his participation, Try called on all Indonesians to assist with the census process.

Muhammadiyah Member Din Syamsuddin, supported by Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto, officially declares himself as a candidate for the Chairmanship of Muhammadiyah.

1st July 2000:
Cameras were on hand today at Semarang to see the Golkar Central Java Provincial Branch close down for the final time today. As the Golkar flag was lowered for the final time in a short ceremony, there was melancholy in the air as Try and Tutut supporters alike shed tears. Chairman of DPRD Alip Pandoyo, a strong Try supporter in Central Java, found himself tearfully embracing Soewardi, the man who unseated him as Chairman of the Golkar Central Java Provincial Branch earlier in the year.

“At the end of the day, we’re all Golkar members”, said Alip “Only circumstances has led us down this road.”

3rd July 2000:
The President swore in a batch of ambassadors this morning including the following:
*ACM. (Ret.) Sutria Tubagus as Ambassador to Russia
*Brig. Gen. (Ret.) CJ Rantung as Ambassador to Singapore replacing HBL Mantiri who becomes Chairman of KPU.
*Outgoing Deputy Attorney General Ismudjoko as Ambassador to Austria. This selection was deliberate for it means that Ismudjoko will be in constant contact with the Austrian government as the Indonesian government continues to look for “certain moneys”.

4th July 2000:
The Supreme Court finds Tommy Soeharto guilty of defrauding Bulog in a landswap deal and sentenced him to 5 years in prison and Rp. 30.6 billion in fines.

Attorney General Soedjono. C. Atmonegoro said Indonesia was still a long way away from practicing Rule of Law and that the sentence is perhaps too light but this at least shows that no one is above the law.

5th July 2000:
The President met with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Malaysia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Rafidah Azis. On behalf of Prime Minister Abullah Ahmad Badawi, Rafidah thanks Ginandjar for playing an intermediary role over the last weeks and months between the Malaysian and Filipino government in an effort to negotiate release for the Abu Sayyaf hostages held on Sipadan Island. Try said that right now his concern is the hostages at Sipadan now that the Filipino Government’s victory over Muslim secessionists are all but certain.

6th July 2000:
At a joint press conference, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti announced that President Try has approved of lifting the export ban on crude palm oil, putting instead an export tax of 30%. Sarwono emphasized however that the President’s emphasis is still on encouraging the process of adding value to Indonesia’s agricultural commodities.

Meanwhile, Edi Sudrajat watched the President go into a private lunch with Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais and come out with a frown on his face. Try told Edi that Amien supporters across various Muhammadiyah branches are beginning to be offered financial inducements to vote for Din Syamsuddin at the Muhammadiyah Congress. Try’s frown was because Amien was asking him for money to counter the money politics.

7th July 2000:
Coming out of a meeting with the President, Minister of Health Azrul Azwar said that the President has approved of the creation of a Directorate General of Pharmaceutical Supplies and Medical Equipment at the Department of Health. Azrul said that this was part of the government’s policy to have proper regulations regarding pharmaceutical ingredients and medical equipment for a safer health industry.

Accompanied by Edi Sudrajat, Try had Friday Prayer and lunch with Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid. Wahid’s nose twitched with concern when the Try told him about what Amien was asking for. He only commented that it was justified given that the opponent was backed by someone with “deep pockets”.

“I’m confused though, Gus, this didn’t happen at the NU Congress last November”, said Try “Although Tutut did support the other candidate.”

“Officially we were at peace then, Mr. President”, said Wahid “Now as you can see for yourself, we’re at war.”

9th July 2000:
The President received a phonecall from President Joseph Estrada of the Phiippines. Estrada told Try that the Filipino Government had successfully put down the Moro Islamic Liberation Front Rebellion. Try congratulated Estrada only for the latter to thank him for his support. Estrada said that he’s indebted to Try for his support and says that Indonesia could always count on the Philippines’ support.

10th July 2000:
Try began the week by receiving a briefing from Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo about events in the Philippines. Try accepted the report and asked instead about the hostages at Sipadan Island. Ari reported that there have been further hostages being taken in the last 10 days alone. On 1st July 2000, 13 Filipino evangelicals trying to mediate with the Abu Sayyaf; on 2nd July, a German journalist trying to cover the hostage situation; and finally on 9th July 3 French television crew.

“What about Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)?” asked Try.

Ari reports that after Amrozi’s assassination of Soegiarto 5 months back, the JI had gone quiet and stayed under radar. They haven’t disowned the fact that Amrozi is one of theirs but they were unhappy that Amrozi had acted rashly. Try enquired after Abu Bakar Bashir. Ari said that he’s still in hiding in Malaysia with a chance of going over into Southern Thailand if the situation called for it. Try then asked about Hambali. Ari said that Hambali is outside of Indonesia at the moment though it’s known that he comes and goes outside of Indonesia and keeps in contact with his followers in Indonesia. Ari added that he would like to follow some leads in Central Sulawesi and Maluku to which Try gave his approval.

“These…terrorists or radicals, I don’t know how else you can call them”, began Try “Are they just a phenomenon that’s exclusive to Southeast Asia? I mean you’ve got JI, Abu Sayyaf, and God knows what else wandering around.”

“Well it would seem that we’re an important battlefield of a wider international struggle, Mr. President, that’s the bad news”, replied Ari “The good news is that we’re not the main target because the main target is always going to be Uncle Sam.”

11th July 2000:
Chairman of DPR Harmoko presides over the swearing in of Setya Novanto and Fadli Zon as DPR members to fill the 2 remaining vacant seats in the DPR. As agreed in the Slipi Agreement one of these seats will go to a Try supporter, the other to a Tutut supporter. Setya Novanto is a friend of Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman while Fadli Zon is a Tutut supporter who is close to Prabowo Subianto.

Amien Rais had a meeting with ABRI Chief of Social-Political Affairs Staff Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Afterwards, in a press conference, Yudhoyono called on local Muhammadiyah officials to report to their local military commanders if they’re getting offered financial inducements.

12th July 2000:
The President had a meeting with State Minister of Research and Technology Indra Bambang Utoyo. Indra brought with him some samples of the Widas high-yielding rice seeds and said there are more high-yielding rice seeds in the pipeline for the year. Indra reported that he has directed most of his resources towards agriculture to which Try approved.

Indra asked if there are any more priorities in research and technology that the President would like him to focus on. Try said that Indra should look at military equipment and defense.

13th July 2000:
Speaking to the media as she headed to Golkar National Headquarters, Tutut Soeharto said that it’s her right to support anyone she wished at the Muhammadiyah National Congress and she will use that right. Tutut warns Muhammadiyah members to be careful of the government’s mobilization of its resources to ensure that it gets the candidate that it wants as the Chairman of Muhammadiyah.

At the Presidential Palace, OCDS Sugeng Subroto dropped in at the end of the day to hand a folder to Try. Try casually glanced at and asked Sugeng what it was.

“Muhammadiyah is big on education. They’ve got a lot of universities and technical schools established already and they want to expand. This all the applications that we’ve got right now in the bureaucracy from Muhammadiyah requesting permits to establish new universities and technical schools as well as upgrading the status of existing educational institutions”, said Sugeng “All of these are under process, but you can grant these requests with the stroke of a pen, Mr. President.”

“This is how you propose we counter Tutut’s money politics?” asked Try.

“We’ve got to find some way, Mr. President”, said Sugeng “Otherwise Amien will be leaking votes to Din.”

14th July 2000:
The President touched down this morning at Ujung Pandang, South Sulawesi. After being welcomed by Governor of South Sulawesi Zainal Basri Palaguna, Try and his delegation made their way to Pare Pare. There, with Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi and Head of Bulog I Gede Awet Sara by his side, the President inaugurated the Pare Pare Diesel Electricity Generator and the Lapadde Bulog Warehouse.

Next the President joined Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie and Amien Rais at Pare Pare’s Muhammadiyah University. In front of the university’s students, Habibie had given a glowing endorsement for Amien in his candidacy as Chairman of Muhammadiyah. The group of three were seen touring the university buildings together.

From Pare Pare, Try and his delegation returned to Ujung Pandang. Speaking at a working dinner with Palaguna and the top provincial officials of South Sulawesi, Try said that development needed to be brought to the people in the regions not the other way around. He told the officials that Sulawesi could be counted as successful if it could build Ujung Pandang and or Manado as thriving economic centers to the point that Sulawesinese people don’t feel the need to come to Jakarta or Surabaya for good opportunity.

Back in Jakarta, the day ended with Ahmad Syafii Ma’arif, a well respected and senior Muhammadiyah membe and scholar holding a press conference. Critical and sharp minded, Ma’arif declared that he will be candidate for Chairman of Muhammadiyah at the Muhammadiyah National Congress the next week. When asked why he was running, Ma’arif gave his explanation.

“Last year we had the PPP National Congress where the chairmanship was contested between Matori Abdul Djalil, who supported the President, and Hamzah Haz, who supported Mbak Tutut. Barely 2 months ago we had the situation with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court where the President favored the person who became the current Chief Justice and Mbak Tutut tried her best to block the appointment.

And now we have the Muhammadiyah National Congress where the chairmanship looks set to be contested by an incumbent supported by the President and a challenge supported by the Chairwoman o Golkar.

I don’t know how I will fare in the congress but I do know that political life in this country is more than just Try Sutrisno and Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana. That’s why I’ve decided to nominate the chairmanship.”

---
Ok lots of things going on. Try keeping a watch on radical terrorists, the upcoming Muhammadiyah National Congress, and Golkar slowly wrapping up its affairs.

In OTL, Tommy's sentence was 18 months with the fine being also Rp. 30.6 billion

The victory experienced by Joseph Estrada can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Camp_Abubakar

Widas rice seed can be found in this catalogue of high-yielding rice seeds: http://lampung.litbang.pertanian.go.id/ind/images/stories/publikasi/deskripsipadi.pdf

Just to show you how committed Muhammadiyah is in education, OTL Muhammadiyah has 171 institutions at the tertiary education level alone. https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daftar_perguruan_tinggi_Muhammadiyah

 

[Unknown]

“Well it would seem that we’re an important battlefield of a wider international struggle, Mr. President, that’s the bad news”, replied Ari “The good news is that we’re not the main target because the main target is always going to be Uncle Sam.”

Boy, would that be proven true in October of 2000 and, more tragically, in September of the next year...

 

[deepoceanblue]

Will try change ujung pandang back to makassar again? Just read the history yesterday, think he could get some nice goodwill from the residents if he did

 

[GSD310]

Boy, would that be proven true in October of 2000 and, more tragically, in September of the next year...

There’s only so much butterflies Indonesia can cause...

I will say for what it’s worth, ITTL Indonesia and its government are better-positioned to handle radicalism.

Will try change ujung pandang back to makassar again? Just read the history yesterday, think he could get some nice goodwill from the residents if he did

Let’s see if this could be worked into the agenda.

 

[GSD310]

15th July 2000:
Megawati Soekarnoputri appeared on Resep Oke Rudy on RCTI hosted by Chef Rudy Choiruddin. As she showed off her nasi goreng recipe, Megawati appeared on take a pot shot at Try and Tutut. She said that cooking helps to cool things down and is better than being “prominent public figures bickering in front of the public.” Rudy Choiruddin looked nervously at the camera and called for a commercial break.

In a meeting at the Presidential Palace after he had returned to Ujung Pandang, President Try Sutrisno and Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais agreed not to fast track various permit applications of Muhammadiyah educational institutes to counter the “financial inducements” to avoid Ahmad Syafii Ma’arif going after them.

17th July 2000:
During a lunchtime meeting attended by Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto, DPR Member Hartono, Prabowo Subianto, and Muhammadiyah member Din Syamsuddin, it was reported by Prabowo that Syafii Ma’arif’s candidacy is rapidly gathering momentum. The main effect of Syafii Ma’arif on Din Syamsuddin’s candidacy was that it made those previously more likely to receive “financial inducements” now more likely to reject such inducements. Tutut was not happy to hear this.

18th July 2000:
In an interview on RCTI, Tutut said that her intention was never to make any political event be about her and that it’s an unfair criticism to say that Din Syamsuddin is “her” candidate because no one has said that Amien Rais is “The President’s” candidate.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita wrote an official diplomatic complaint to New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Phil Goff. The complaint was in relation to pro-East Timor demonstrations in Auckland outside of the Indonesian Embassy in New Zealand, the New Zealand Government’s sympathetic stance towards the demonstrators, and the statement by Prime Minister Helen Clark that aid must be tied with conditions in the field of human rights.

19th July 2000:
With Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman and Chief of Police Yun Mulyana observing proceedings, Tommy Soeharto officially checks into Cipinang Prison in East Jakarta.

Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono fronted a DPR Work Meeting today. He announced that the economy is strong with a lot of activity being generated during the school holidays period. In particular, Soedradjad notes the increase in domestic tourism meaning that Indonesians are once again spending their money on something “other than the basics”. That said, Soedradjad said that the government will pay close attention for spikes in demand for import and/or inflationary pressures as a result of the demand that exists in the economy.

20th July 2000:
State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari emerged out of a meeting with the President. He said that he was reporting to the President on Indonesia’s preparations for the 2000 Olympic Games. But being a Muhammadiyah member, Hajriyanto was asked about the upcoming Muhammadiyah National Congress. Hajriyanto joked that if people are smart, they’ll take the “financial inducement” and then vote for whichever candidate they wanted.

21st July 2000:
To a loud applause, the President hit a gong to declare the Muhammadiyah National Congress open. The Pancasila Coalition was out in full force with Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Chairman of ICMI Habibie, Wahono, Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid, sitting front row and in the center. Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil got the task of engaging Tutut Soeharto and Chairman of PDI Soerjadi in conversation though as Matori later recalled, they were more interested in talking to each other.

22nd July 2000:
The President spent the day at the Presidential Palace watching the Muhammadiyah National Congress with Edi Sudrajat, Chief of Bakin Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto. Harsudiono, being the Minister of Home Affairs, was on duty observing the congress.

It was a lengthy process that literally took the whole day. The Muhammadiyah Constitution allows for a maximum of 39 candidates for chairman. The task of the delegates at the Muhammadiyah National Congress, of which there were more than 2,000, was to determine the top 13. By nightfall and after all the votes were counted, Amien Rais placed first in the top 13, Syafii Ma’arif placed second and Din Syamsuddin placed fifth. This top 13 then met to determine who will be the next Chairman of Muhammadiyah. Convention dictated that name placed first in the top 13 be the chairman. This was no different and Amien Rais was declared re-elected as Chairman of Muhammadiyah.

As the day ended, Harsudiono went to the Presidential Palace to report the day’s proceeding to Try who was still accompanied by the other members of his inner circle. There was one item which got Try’s ear to perk up.

“Yudhoyono’s influence was all over the congress”, said Harsudiono “It turned out ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs Staff mobilized his subordinates in the regions to encourage Muhammadiyah delegates to vote for Amien prior to their departure to Jakarta.”

“What do you suppose his game is?” asked Try.

“The best I can come up with, Yudhoyono and Amien spent some time together in Yogyakarta. Yogyakarta is Amien’s home base and Yudhoyono was there for a short while when he was Resort Commander of Yogyakarta”, replied Ari Sudewo.

24th July 2000:
Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani issued an announcement that Golkar membership cards, regardless of whether they have been handed over or not, will expire on 9th August 2000.

At the Filipino State of the Nation Address, President Joseph Estrada publicly thanked “President Try Sutrisno and the people of Indonesia” for their moral support for the government as they went after the secessionists in Mindanao.

25th July 2000:
Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar and Chairman of BPIS Sintong Panjaitan, announced that the President has revoked distribution of explosives licenses belonging to PT Multi Nitrotama Kimia and PT Tridaya Esta. Distribution of commercial explosives will now be taken over by PT Dahana, the state-owned explosives company. Sintong added that PT Dahana will be looking to buy back explosives already sold to the two companies.

The two companies belongs to Tommy Soeharto and Bambang Trihatmodjo. Behind the scenes, the decision came down to a consensus that it was probably not the wisest idea to put Tommy and Bambang in a situation “where they’ve got their hands on explosives”.

Speaking in response to these policies on behalf of the Soeharto Family, Prabowo Subianto said that all of this is “okay” since everybody knows that the President has always had his eyes set on taking down the Soeharto Family.

26th July 2000:
At the Presidential Palace today, President Try welcomed Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei Darussalam to Indonesia. In their initial meeting, Bolkiah expressed his interest for closer economic ties with Indonesia and expressed his interest in investing in infrastructure projects. Try, accompanied by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, welcomed this.

In the President and the Sultan’s joint press conference, Bolkiah was asked (by a foreign reporter as was always the case with such sensitive questions) about whether his close personal relationship with President Soeharto would negatively effect his relationship with Try. Bolkiah dismissed this saying that it was his goal to develop as close a relationship with Try as he did with Soeharto because that would be in the best interest of Brunei.

That night, Try held a state dinner for Bolkiah.

27th July 2000:
Bolkiah spent the morning visiting the Beautiful Indonesia Miniature Park, Cendana Street and meeting with Tutut. When greeting the Sultan on the porch of her father’s house, Tutut made sure that there were as many well-positioned cameras as possible and held the pose for as long as possible. Tutut hailed Bolkiah as a friend of Indonesia and a friend of Soeharto.

Later on Bolkiah and his delegation had a working lunch with the President and his delegation where they signed an MOU committing Brunei to investment in Indonesian infrastructure projects, access to Bruneian markets for Indonesian cement, and closer cultural exchanges. Once this was concluded, Bolkiah said his farewells and departed Jakarta to go on holiday at Bali.

28th July 2000:
The President met with Head of BKKBN Nafsiah Mboi; the latter reporting on developments in the field of family planning. Nafsiah reported that 61% of all fertile married couples have access to family planning information and contraceptives. An improvement over the 57.4% at the beginning of Try’s presidency in 1997 but still much to be improved upon. The President asked Nafsiah to focus on the following priorities:

*Setting a target that 70% of all fertile married couples having access to family planning information and contraceptives by March 2003.

*Increase male participation in family planning (ie. encourage them to have vasectomy) because male participation is still negligible (3% in 1997 figures)

* Coordinate with the Minister of Education about having sex education in schools so people are more aware of family planning from an early age.

31st July 2000:
Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto held a press conference to announce that starting from 1st August 2000, all fishing vessels in the process of obtaining or renewing their sailing permits must have a Vessel Monitoring System installed on board. This was so that the Department of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries could trace the movement of fishing vessels in Indonesian waters.

Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo reported to the President that the textile industry is rapidly approaching full capacity and is beginning to struggle to meet demand. He said that the problem that most machines in textile factories in Indonesia are older than 5 years old.

1st August 2000:
For the second time in less than two months, the President touched down in Bengkulu where an earthquake struck nearly two months prior. This time the populace was happier to see Try and Try was even happier to see that things had become more organized. The spread of communicable diseases had been stopped, school classes were being held in temporary buildings, and the management of the disaster’s after effects were better coordinated. Almost to a person, all told Try that this was due to the hard work of Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta. Meutia herself had been staying in a budget hotel over the past month in Bengkulu and all her work had been flown there every day from Jakarta.

Touring around the city, Try visited Fort Marlborough where he chatted with the foreign tourists visiting the former British fort.

2nd August 2000:
Flying in the morning from Bengkulu, the President and his delegation landed in Medan, North Sumatra. They were immediately taken to Belawan Harbour. There, with Governor of North Sumatra Syamsir Siregar by his side Try inaugurated a terminal dedicated to handling fruits and vegetables. In his speech, Try called on Medan more specifically and North Sumatra more broadly to become an engine of Indonesian economic gowth. He challenged Medan and Ujung Pandang to compete with each other. After the ceremony was over, he walked around and talked with the terminal’s workers as well as passengers.

From Medan, Try went to the City of Binjai not far from Medan. Try toured the toll road that was still under construction. He also inspected the markets there. As he bought rambutan fruit, Try found that interest was still low in doing anything with agricultural produce other than selling them or exporting them raw. By mid-afternoon, Try was already back in Medan and he flew back to Jakarta.

3rd August 2000:
Tutut Soeharto hands out gift hampers to the cleaning staff and security guards at Golkar’s National Headquarters at Slipi, Jakarta. Speaking to the media gathered there, Tutut said that things are very much wrapping up for Golkar. She also announced that there will be a ceremony on 9th August at Slipi.

The DPR passed unanimously passed the new Political Parties Law. The law allows for the formation of new political parties though the conditions for this formation are stringent.

4th August 2000:
The President met with Harsudiono Hartas. The latter reported that as of that day, all of the Golkar branches in the provinces, regencies, and municipalities had closed down. Only the Golkar National Headquarters remain.

Trucks arrive at the National Archives (ANRI) building today carrying reams of paper in folders from Golkar’s files. On behalf of Golkar, ZA Maulani handed these over to Head of ANRI Maftuh Basyuni so that “future generations” may know about Golkar.

6th August 2000:
The TVRI Broadcast a 3-hour documentary entitled “The History of Golkar” which focused on Golkar’s road from its foundation in 1964, its victories in elections from 1971 to 1997, and finally its spectacular collapse earlier in the year. Head of LIPI Taufik Abdullah provided the conclusion to the documentary where he said the following:

“This was an organization which had won 6 elections, the last of which was only 3 years ago…(shakes head). It really blows the mind to think that Golkar will soon have something in common with the Indonesian Communist Party and that that something in common is that they will no longer exist.”

7th August 2000:
In a three-way telephone conversation, Try and President Joseph Estrada advised Prime Minister of Malaysia Abdullah Ahmad Badawi not to pay ransom to Abu Sayyaf radicals to secure the release of Malaysian hostages kidnapped at Sipadan. Estrada said that it would only encourage them to kidnap more Malaysians, Filipinos, or whatever national which happened to draw close. Estrada said he’s considering a military option. Try said he would like to put more thought on this issue but said he wanted “bury my political party first”.

At the Department of Legal Affairs, Tutut officially changed the purpose of Dakab Foundation from “supporting Golkar’s struggle” to “providing social aid to the regions”.

8th August 2000:
At a ceremony at the Department of Home Affairs, the KPU officially receives control of Golkar’s national, provincial, and regency/municipality headquarters. Chairman of KPU HBL Mantiri publicly thanked Golkar for its contribution. Maulani, handing things over on behalf of Golkar, said that he hopes Golkar will be remembered well.

Former Vice President Sudharmono held a special press conference at his house saying that he had visited the President and the Chairwoman of Golkar separately that day. Sudharmono said that the two had agreed to sign a short statement which he will now read on their behalf.

“Beloved Golkar members,

In accordance with the agreement we have signed on 9th June 2000, Golkar will cease its activities once and for all tomorrow on 9th August 2000.

We thank all Golkar members who have taken up the cause of Golkar in its 36 years of existence. We call on them to continue serving the nation in Golkar’s successor organizations, in other political parties, and in whatever capacity and situation they found themselves in.

We thank the Indonesian people for trusting Golkar in the 1971, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992, and 1997 Elections. Our deepest apologies for not being able to allow you to trust us again at the 2002 Elections.

This letter will function as the collective resignations of the Council of Patrons and the National Leadership Council. It has been submitted to the Department of Home Affairs and the Department of Legal Affairs for the sake of recordkeeping.

May God always protect the Republic of Indonesia.

Gen. (Ret.) Try Sutrisno
The Chairman of the Golkar Council of Patrons

Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana
The Chairwoman of the Golkar National Leadership Council.”

Sudharmono was weeping openly as he finished reading the statement.

9th August 2000:
In the United States, the two presidential and vice presidential pairings from the Republican and Democratic Party were now completed. In Russia, the new President of Russia takes office.

In Indonesia, the nation’s top political elite gathered at Golkar’s National Headquarters for a ceremony. It was not a long ceremony though all of the nation’s eyes were trained on it as it happened. The highlight of the ceremony was the sight of Harmoko, Wahono, Sudharmono, and Amir Murtono being entrusted with the duty of lowering the Golkar flag for the final time. All were former chairmen of Golkar. All had tears in their eyes.

There were many tears in the audience and those present gathered that at least for a few moments, Golkar was united once again. But the moment passed with all knowing that Golkar’s time was at an end.

Try and Tutut stood stoically as the Golkar flag was being lowered, not shedding a single tear. It was said that perhaps they knew better and earlier than most that Golkar’s demise was inevitable considering the nature of their rivalry to feel sorrow at what was happening.

Golongan Karya
20th October 1964-9th August 2000​

---
Muhammadiyah’s Chairman selection process comes from https://nasional.tempo.co/read/688363/begini-mekanisme-pemilihan-ketua-umum-muhammadiyah

Stats regarding Family Planning comes from the Wahid’s Government National Development Program https://luk.staff.ugm.ac.id/atur/UU25-2000Propenas.pdf p. 141

Up next, we go around the world to various countries to see how the world looks ITTL.

 

[Unknown]

Wonder who the GOP nominee is in the US ITTL...

 

[Pilatypus]

And now Golkar is officially 6 feet under. This whole Golkar arc was amazing. Who would have thought that in less than a presidential term, the strongest party that won so thoroughly would not see another election. Not through the will of the people, but because of it's own members.

 

[GSD310]

And now Golkar is officially 6 feet under. This whole Golkar arc was amazing. Who would have thought that in less than a presidential term, the strongest party that won so thoroughly would not see another election. Not through the will of the people, but because of it's own members.

Thanks for the kind words.

I had a bit of trouble conveying it, but you’re absolutely correct. The role of the Golkar members, be they Try or Tutut supporters, was vital in Golkar’s demise.

These members essentially gave up on Golkar. The Try supporters felt they were going to get driven out by the Tutut supporters, the Tutut supporters felt they were going to get driven out by Try. At the end of the day both felt that the best way to continue their political struggle was outside of Golkar. They all cried when the Golkar flag got lowered but they knew it was hard to avoid the split.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa August 2000 (Southeast Asia)​

Southeast Asia:
Singapore:
Indonesia’s recovery from the economic crisis and the visits of President Try Sutrisno to Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia in February and March 2000 were interpreted by the Singaporean government that a shift was occurring. After the crisis, Indonesia was now ready to focus on foreign policy. The way in which the Indonesian Government wanted to rejuvenate sub-regional cooperation and was openly backing the Filipino Government in the latter’s campaign against the MILF was also well-noted in the Singaporean establishment.

It was with this background that in late April 2000, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong reshuffled his cabinet. The most notable reshuffle involved Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong who was moved from his position as Chairman of Monetary Authority Singapore to his new post as Minister for Foreign Affairs. Insiders said that Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew gave a ready approval to this reshuffle; wanting his son in the “thick of things” whilst also preparing for his eventual rise to the prime ministership sometime in the future.

Malaysia:
Just as the Malaysian economy began to gain traction, it lost momentum on 23rd April 2000 when 21 locals and foreigners on a resort at Sipadan Island Resort were kidnapped. The tourism sector was faced with foreigners suddenly cancelling holidays to Malaysia. It was difficult to avoid the notion that Malaysia was unstable.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was in an unenviable position of having to request assistance from President Joseph Estrada, who had expressed his desire that Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim be victorious in the previous election. Seeing the delicacy of the situation, Indonesian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita offered to become the middle man between the Malaysian and the Filipino governments. Badawi accepted the offer but looked like he was relying on Indonesia to do his communicating and appealing for him. That the hostage situation dragged on only made the situation worst for Badawi.

Even though all assistance was being rendered by the Indonesian and Filipino governments, Badawi had not formally declared his support for the Philippines in its campaign against the MILF but instead continued to maintain an ambivalent attitude. Originally taking office as someone who was moderate in his stance, Badawi increasingly looked indecisive as though there was pressure for him to get his decisions right.

Badawi is indeed a man under pressure. Despite the opening of such landmarks as the Petronas Tower and the new Kuala Lumpur International Airport, the economy had not recovered fully. The nation became insecure and one way this insecurity expressed itself was through the downplaying of Indonesia’s economic recovery, by arguing that Malaysia was still more prosperous than Indonesia and that Malaysia’s economic recovery had come about without the assistance of the IMF. Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar, visiting Malaysia in March 2000 on a study tour of Malaysian Highways, instructed his delegation to bite their tongue because they were there to learn not to make the hosts feel even more insecure.

A year after his election victory in July 1999, Badawi began to come under criticism from within UMNO and the Barisan Nasional Coalition. Once hailed for being able to stop the UMNO’s decline in the polls, it was now an almost favorite pastime of Badawi’s critics to point out that he had lost seats. Badawi still has his defenders around him though it was undeniable that his power was showing signs of fading. The alternative candidate whose name was beginning to be mentioned as a possible replacement for Badawi was Najib Razak, who is presently Minister of Trade and Industry.

Najib Razak, son of Malaysia’s Second Prime Minister Tunku Abdul Razak, sensed something in Try Sutrisno’s visit to Kuala Lumpur in February 2000 and then his visits to mainland Southeast Asia in March 2000. From around the cabinet table he called on the government not to be dragged into Indonesia’s “maneuverings” and that any relationship with Indonesia should be conducted on an “equal” basis and not with Indonesia adopting a more superior position. Najib said that ASEAN should focus on implementing the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement rather than getting involved in Indonesia’s “adventures”.

Brunei Darussalam:
Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah is due to visit Jakarta in July 2000 en route to holidaying in Bali. Though Try’s Four Horsemen remained wary of his close relations with the Soeharto Family, Try said that Brunei has continued to accept migrant workers from Indonesia and had not put a moratorium on accepting them the way Malaysia had and that it was important to maintain good relations with Brunei. Bolkiah’s visit was by all accounts a success and it was said that the Sultan and Try Sutrisno had gotten along well.

Philippines:
Estrada’s campaign against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was completed on 9th July 2000 when personnel from the Armed Forces of the Philippines successfully took over Camp Abubakar, the largest of the MILF camps. Estrada had planned a celebration which included bringing beer and pork into the camp to feed to the troops. He let slip of these plans during a phone call to Try and was advised against it. Estrada heeded the advice, settling for merely planting the Filipino flag. Though Indonesia’s involvement in the campaign against MILF was limited to patrolling close to the Indonesian-Filipino maritime border, Estrada was most grateful for the moral support given by Try and Indonesia. At his State of the Nation Address in July 2000, Estrada publicly thanked Try for his support.

Now with the successful campaign against the MILF at an end, Estrada turned to the matter of Abu Sayyaf which in April 2000 had taken hostages from the Island of Sipadan and brought them to Jolo Island, which was in Filipino territory. He was frustrated with how the Malaysian government refused to contact him directly but settled for letting Indonesia handle Malaysia.

Much as Indonesia’s other immediate neighbors, the government kept tabs on what policies the Filipino Government were working on. In March 2000, Estrada signed a bill which liberalized the retail sector in order to attract foreign investment. It was something which caught the eye of Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti.

Thailand:
Now ensconced in his position as Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra sought to implement his policies. He immediately put a moratorium on rural debt and went about trying to implement his One Tandon One Product policy. All this in addition to a deficit spending program to stimulate economic growth. The populist policies were widely regarded by the populace and were seen as a nice contrast to Chuan Leekpai’s IMF-style austerity programs.

Where Thaksin intended to continue on Chuan’s policies was in foreign policy especially in terms of relations with Indonesia. Thaksin was not without his own ambitions in foreign policy, envisioning an economic forum that would integrate all of Southeast, Northeast, and South Asia to be spearheaded by Thailand. But Thaksin had to deal with the cards that had been dealt to him and those cards pointed to Indonesia reasserting itself on Southeast Asia after two years of looking inward to settle the Asian Financial Crisis. In discussions with his young Minister of Foreign Affairs Surakiart Sathirathai, Thaksin said if Indonesia wanted to lead Southeast Asia, Thailand should position itself as Indonesia’s lieutenant in mainland Southeast Asia.

Within weeks of his assumption of office, Thaksin had had a chance to visit the United States, with whom Thailand traditionally had close ties. Thaksin told President Bill Clinton that it was mistake to put Indonesia in a position of having to choose between getting out of the IMF program and using its influence on the IMF Managing Director Election because it risks Indonesia drifting closer to China. Clinton asked if Indonesia was drifting closer to China. Thaksin said on the contrary, what Indonesia is doing now has the potential of checking China’s influence if it plays its card correctly.

Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia:
In the wake of Try Sutrisno’s visit in March 2000, there were some soul searching to be done in Rangoon, Vientiane, and Phnom Penh.

At Rangoon, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) debated the issue. Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt, Secretary of the SPDC, questioned Indonesia’s capacity to match up to China or India. Gen. Maung Aye, the Vice Chairman of the SPDC who had fought Chinese-backed Burmese communists in his road to the top, said that China’s not to be trusted but wonders whether Try could be trusted considering that “he’s positioning himself to play a leading role in Southeast Asia”. Chairman of SPDC Than Shwe kept his own counsel.

There were of course internal political dynamics at work. Khin Nyunt aspired of one day replacing Than Shwe to not say anything about the fact that he favored better relations with China. Khin was backed by former military strongman Ne Win.

At Laos, President Khamtai Siphandone was satisfied with Laotian-Indonesian relations after Try’s visit in May 2000. The Asian Financial Crisis had effected in Laos; partly due to their currency losing its value and partly because Thailand had been their largest trading partner. Laos wanted Indonesian cooperation and investment to get the feeling that they’re not to overly reliant on one source of investment whether that be China, Vietnam, or Thailand and that was what they got. Khamtai did not think too much about strategic implications.

One person in Laos who did about the strategic implication of what Try was doing was Minister of Finance Bounnhang Vourachith. Bounnhang’s question was how Vietnam responded to seeing Try’s visits to Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia.

One man who placed considerable thought on development was Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen. Though China had been the first to recognize the regime which he now led in 1997, Indonesia had played a part in ensuring there was peace in Cambodia in the aftermath of the Indochina War and had also had a role in Cambodia’s entrance to ASEAN. King Norodom Sihanouk of course wanted Cambodia to be close to China. Hun Sen wanted to wait and see.

Vietnam:
The two questions that General Secretary Le Kha Phieu liked to ask to Politburo colleagues after Try’s visits to Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia was why didn’t Try visit Vietnam and why should Vietnam therefore consider Indonesia as a friend. Le also doubted Indonesia’s capacity to stand up to China saying that Indonesia could not feed itself considering it still imported rice from Vietnam. Rather defiantly, Le Kha Phieu said that he would not make Indonesia a priority for Vietnam.

The answer grumbled back by Le Kha Phieu’s comrades in reply was because the General Secretary was taking Vietnam further and further into China’s orbit. This was quite an “achievement” considering Vietnam’s traditionally hostile stance towards China. The settling of all land border disputes in early 2000 caused further uproar when it was revealed that parts of Vietnam’s northernmost provinces now lay within Chinese territory.

With less than a year left until the 9th Party Congress, there is now talk of unseating Le Kha Phieu at that event. Though who exactly will replace him is still under consideration, Le Kha Phieu is now beginning to fall under criticism from within the Vietnamese Communist Party for many things during his leadership, one of which was the way in which Vietnam is getting too close to China. Le Kha Phieu himself is beginning to make preparations for a second term as general secretary.

April 2000 saw Chairman of the National Assembly Nong Duc Manh return from a visit to Indonesia to see his counterpart Chairman of the DPR Harmoko. When asked by his fellow Le Kha Phieu what he thought of Try Sutrisno, Nong said that if Vietnam wants to check China’s influence, it would do well to side with Try.

---
One of the consequences of the Asian Financial Crisis OTL is that Indonesia lost its status in the region and in ASEAN because it focused its attention inward on the various crises it faced. OTL, Thailand under Thaksin and Malaysia under Mahathir aspired to fill the gap left behind by Indonesia.

The interesting part of this Alternate History exercise both for ITTL’s Southeast Asia and the wider ITTL world is this: what happens when you throw an Indonesia that is the first out of the economic crisis in its region into the mix? Openly supporting the Philippines in its campaign against MILF and Abu Sayyaf and then visiting Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia to gently urge them to turn to Southeast Asia as their source of security were things that OTL Indonesia could not afford to do as it went through political transition.

ITTL’s Southeast Asian countries circa mid-2000 are still recovering as opposed to having made full recovery and it’s now wondering what the only nation that has made full recovery in the region is going to do next.

 

[GSD310]

Oceania:
Papua New Guinea:
In the aftermath of the bilateral trade agreement signed with Indonesia in November 1999, Papua New Guinea began to play host to investments and imports from its western borders. Prime Minister Mekere Morauta, overseeing the effort at economic recovery of Papua New Guinea, began to entertain notions that Indonesia would be Papua New Guinea’s gate to Southeast Asia.

Australia:
With the Good and Services Tax (GST) taking effect on 1st July 2000, it was time for Prime Minister John Howard to hand over his position as he had promised. Privately, Howard was loath to do this but he had made a commitment to handover. At the last minute, there was talk among Howard’s supporters, perhaps acting with Howard’s secret blessing, of putting forward Minister for Employment and Small Business Peter Reith as an alternative leadership candidate. But this was nipped in bud by leaked revelations that Reith had allowed his son to rack up large bills on his ministerial phone card. Faced with these revelations, Reith backed out. Thus it was that the leadership of the Liberal Party and the office of prime minister passed into the hands of Treasurer Peter Costello.

Costello’s commitment to good relations with Indonesia was tested within days when demonstrators in Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne, taking their cue from their New Zealand counterparts, demonstrated on the anniversary of East Timor’s official incorporation into Indonesia in 1976. Prime Minister Costello accompanied by Minister for Foreign Affairs Phillip Ruddock held a press conference stating that they acknowledged that East Timor is part of Indonesia and that good relations with Indonesia is conducted on a bipartisan basis. Opposition Leader Kim Beazley joined Costello in issuing this statement.

New Zealand:
Though there were other priorities on her table when she had assumed office in 1999, Prime Minister Helen Clark made good on her promise to make an issue of human rights with Indonesia. On 17th July 2000, the anniversary of East Timor’s official incorporation into Indonesia in 1976, pro-East Timor independence protesters demonstrated in front of Indonesia’s Embassy in New Zealand in Wellington. Clark issued a statement which, although couched in diplomatic terms, expressed sympathy for the content of what was protested.

Within the Department of Foreign Affairs in Jakarta, there was a debate over what to do. Recalling the ambassador the way the Indonesian Ambassador to the Netherlands was recalled last year was considered but then rejected. Instead an official diplomatic complaint was sent to the Prime Minister via the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. There was an argument over what to do next at Cabinet. Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Phillip Goff advocated free trade with Asian nations. He argued that that whilst it is fair to call on Indonesia to improve its human rights record as a condition of aid, it is not wise to pick a fight like this. Deputy Prime Minister Jim Anderton, leader of the left wing The Alliance with whom Clark’s Labor Party had built a coalition to win government, supported the protests. Clark said that the stance of the government would remain.

Northeast Asia:
Japan:
Prime Minister Koichi Kato spent the first 4 months of his premiership consolidating his power with the aim of holding an election in October 2000. While going about implementing policies to structurally reform Japan’s economy, Kato also reiterated his foreign policy which called for a “trilateral” relationship between Japan, the US, and China meaning that Japan should be as close to China as it is to the US. This only confirmed Kato’s reputation as one of Japan’s most pro-Chinese politicians. Kato further announced that he would forego the Prime Minister of Japan’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine.

In a memo to President Try Sutrisno, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita advised that if Kato was successful it could mean more trade with Japan. Being a follower of Japan, Ginandjar also advised that unless Kato could establish undisputed ascendancy, there will be some check to his China-oriented foreign policy from even within his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

South Korea and North Korea:
The winds of change are arriving at the Korean Peninsula. In North Korea, the most welcome good news in the first months of 2000 was Prime Minister of Russia Yevgeny Primakov and his candidacy for the Russian presidency. Primakov had already signaled that if elected as president, he would change President Boris Yeltsin’s policy of favoring South Korea and renew relations with North Korea. Thus it was General Secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party/Chairman of the National Defence Commission Kim Jong Il felt confident to rebuff President of South Korea Kim Dae Jung’s overture for a summit. The official news of Primakov’s election to the presidency only further strengthened Kim Jong Il’s resolve.

Despite the fact that he had guided South Korea through and out of the Asian Financial Crisis, President Kim Dae Jung was struggling in foreign policy. His Sunshine Policy was to be the centerpiece of his foreign policy. North Korea, however, was not responsive to his approaches. This failure quickly effected his standing domestically. In April 2000’s South Korean Legislative Elections, Kim’s Millenium Democratic Party (MDP) failed to gain a majority even when coalescing with minor parties. The dominant party in the National Assembly, in no small part taking advantage of Kim’s failures in South Korea, remained the Grand National Party led by former Prime Minister Lee Hoi Chang, a conservative with presidential aspirations.

Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar and Navy Chief of Staff Indroko Sastrowiryono visited South Korea in June 2000. The two inspected work conducted to convert a ferry ship into a naval personnel carrier with a helipad at Pusan by the Dae Sun Shipbuilding and Engineering. Wismoyo met with Minister of National Defense Cho Song Tae to discuss closer defense ties with South Korea.

China:
The year of the Dragon has been good for China and good for General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party/President/Chairman of the Central Military Commission Jiang Zemin. Domestically, the economy remained growing and strong and Jiang further consolidated power by promoting his theory of Three Represents. On the international front, a Prime Minister of Japan with pro-Chinese leanings to not mention a President of Taiwan with pro-mainland leanings. Things could not be better.

The only flaw in this picture is the archipelago to the south, the first in its region to emerge out of the Asian Financial Crisis, beginning to assert itself in its region. A Politburo Standing Committee meeting in March 2000 revealed that the President of Indonesia’s visits to Myanmar and Cambodia had already been enough to make the two nations think about being dragged further into China’s orbit. There was a sentiment within the Politburo Standing Committee that Southeast Asian nations, such as Indonesia, owed China its road to recovery because China could have devalued its currency so that its exports could remain cheaper than that of the Southeast Asian countries but it had not. Regarding Indonesia, Chairman of NPC Li Peng said that perhaps Indonesia should be reminded that it was Jiang who first called Try and unconditionally recognized that the East Timor issue has been settled once and for all.

Though Indonesia caused China to think twice about its immediate region, Jiang ultimately concluded that there were bigger fish for China to fry. Russia was holding its Presidential Election in June 2000, the United States of America with its Presidential Election in November 2000, and Jiang wondered how one would impact the other. Jiang also asked for China to continue extending its plans to cast its influence over Africa through the holding of the Forum of China-Africa Cooperation set for October.

South Asia and Central Asia:
India:
As it entered the year 2000, India was trying to gear its economy for growth though it was weighed down by its fiscal difficulties. The 2000 Budget presented by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee proposed cuts to subsidies which did not go down well with the public.

Even as subsidies were being slashed, military spending continued to increase for Vajpayee continued to look warily at Pakistan. A plane hijacking in December 1999 was claimed by Vajpayee to be supported by the Pakistani government. As if to make India feel even more insecure, Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf conducted a visit to China in January 2000. Vajpayee countered with a visit of his own, to Indonesia in April 2000 both to fulfill an invitation of the Indonesian government and also in fulfillment of his strategy that Indonesia could be used as a counterweight to stand up against China. Even before Thailand’s Thaksin, Vajpayee was already telling the United States that Indonesia could be used as a counterweight against China and that the way the United States was treating the United States was not productive. This he did when President Bill Clinton visited India in March 2000.

India itself however was being fought over. When Clinton came to visit India, he lifted some of the sanctions imposed in the wake of India’s nuclear testing in 1998. At the same time, Russia was also interested in establishing a closer relationship in India; it being Prime Minister of Russia Yevgeny Primakov’s vision to establish a Russia-China-India triangle to counter the United States’ dominance in international politics.

Pakistan:
“I’m still not sure how comfortable we should be with the Musharraf Regime in Pakistan. On the one hand, one common aspect that we’ve got going for this relationship is that he’s a general and you’re a general too. On the other hand, based on the intel I’m getting, there’s a chance that that military’s been compromised by elements in Afghanistan. Do we really want closer ties, especially military to military and risk these elements infiltrating into our country as well?”- Memo by Chief of Bakin Ari Sudewo to President Try Sutrisno in April 2000

Central Asia:
In July 2000, Tajikistan hosted the Shanghai Five Summit, an organization consisting of China, Kazahkstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The Summit issued a statement opposing intervention in other countries’ internal affairs under the guise of trying to upholding ‘human rights’.

As Indonesia’s economy began to pick up pace throughout 2000 and demand, both domestic and foreign, began to pick up for Indonesian textile, Uzbekistan was identified as a possible source for cotton import. To this end Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo conducted a visit to Uzbekistan. An MOU to facilitate textile imports to Indonesia was signed.

Iran:
The internal jockeying for power continued in Tehran with the 2000 Legislative Elections turning into a battleground. The elections saw the 2nd Khordad Front, a coalition of moderates and reformists supportive of President Mohammad Khatami, emerge with the majority of the seats. With a stronger position, Khatami immediately went about looking to build political momentum.

Afghanistan:
“Southeast Asia is an important front in our Jihad. The world’s largest Islamic nation is located there but I wonder how feasible it is to make a dent there. Its economy is prosperous and there is not enough discontent there for people to want to turn to our case. Not to mention the fact that this Try guy is a tough customer…

Focus our resources on more certain and more impactful operations. Our plans in Yemen must go ahead and our guys already infiltrating United States must continue their flying lessons. Let’s strike at that Great Satan that is otherwise known as the United States of America.”- Emir of Al Qaeda Osama Bin Laden June 2000.