Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)
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154: The Upside Of Being Underestimated
20th January 2002:
Before President Try Sutrisno could make his move, he did not feel well. His doctors, First Lady Tuti Setiawati, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat all told him to take a rest because it was a Sunday anyway. The President complained that the timing was great to make his move but Edi said that there will be better timing.
21st January 2002:
The Presidential Palace played host to a full cabinet meeting chaired by the President and attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin, the ministers, and the heads of the agencies. In his opening address, the President welcomed those in attendance to their final full calendar year of the term saying that he will still be asking for their best and calling on them not to be distracted by the election, saying that if they are doing good work, this good work will be reflected in the results of the election.
There were a lot of items on the agenda:
*The first order of business was to discuss the after effects of the fuel price adjustment. Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja reported small increases in transport fares while Minister of Trade Anthony Salim also reported small increases in prices of basic commodities due to the fuel price adjustments but that these are very small adjustments.
Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti said that this was due to the timing of the fuel price adjustment, conducted when inflation is low and currency is strong and with completed infrastructure projects pushing costs down.
*The second item on the agenda, with Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad as the speaker, was the Draft 2002/2003 Budget which the President will present to the DPR the next day and got the cabinet’s general approval.
The President invited Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita to make some comments about a budget measure that will have an impact on other nations in the region. Ginandjar said that the nations in question are aware of it, they welcome it, and are asking what “quid pro quo” Indonesia will be asking for.
*Wiranto reported on the third issue which was that Thailand’s Military Contingent had arrived in the Philippines to join the the Filipino-led operations against Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah. Wiranto also reported that President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada had authorized for operations to start this coming week. The President approved of these developments.
*Ginandjar spoke next about developments between India and Pakistan. The situation had deteriorated over there after a terrorist attack by Pakistani Terrorist Group Lashkar E-Toiba. When India had demanded action by the Pakistan Government, President/Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf was on the verge of taking decisive action just as suggested by President Try. Instead Musharraf was overthrown in a soft coup with Chief of Army Staff Aziz Khan now holding de facto power there as the Chief Executive. Aziz Khan has now gone on and asked Russia and China to mediate.
Ginandjar explained that Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee had asked for Indonesia to be involved in the talks considering that Southeast Asia is the “region next door” and that Indonesia is the “leader there”. But China vetoed this saying Indonesia is “unsuitable”, Pakistan agreed reflecting the worry that Musharraf will be a “Try” while Russia does not have a strong stance but tagged along with China and Russia. Ginandjar then produced a letter from Vajpayee which he gave to the President and which he in turn passed to Sumarlin. Sumarlin read it, it was an apologetic letter saying that Indonesia was not going to be part of the talks despite India’s desire that the President use his influence on Musharraf and that a strong Indonesia in Southeast Asia was still in India’s interest.
“How nice of China to have that opinion of us”, muttered Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo as everybody murmured in agreement.
“Where’s the United States in all this?” asked Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas.
“They’re busy bombing the hell out of Afghanistan after failing to capture Bin Laden at Tora Bora”, said Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar “It seems like that McCain’s forgotten about Russia and China for now.”
The President read Vajpayee’s letter again and then asked his Aide-de-Camp to handed it to Ginandjar.
“Please tell Prime Minister Vajpayee that we understand his position and that we know he doesn’t mean any harm by it”, he told Ginandjar before turning to the rest of the meeting “The best thing for us to do is to take advantage of our not being part of the equation. Speaking from personal experience, the upside of being underestimated is that they will never see you coming until you land your punch on them.”
When the cabinet meeting broke up with Junior Minister of Finance Marzuki Usman was shaking hands effusively with his colleagues, this being the last cabinet meeting he will attend.
22nd January 2002:
With Chairman of the DPR Harmoko presiding and in the presence of DPR members, the President today delivered the 2002/2003 Draft Budget the highlights of which are the following:
Revenue:
-There is extra revenue available for the government as a result of the 10 year debt moratorium approved by the Paris Club and backed by the United States as part of Indonesia becoming a strategic partner in the War of Terror. This debt moratorium means that the Indonesian Government does not have to pay back debt for 10 years.
-The number of individual registered taxpayers continues to increase from year to year owing to improving and good economic conditions. 1,26 million taxpayers as of 1 January 1998, 1,45 million as of 1 January 1999, 1,77 million as of 1 January 2000, 2,32 million as of 1 January 2001, 3,01 million as of 1 January 2002.
“I thank all of you for your awareness towards your obligations as citizens”, said the President as he bowed his head for the camera “I pledge to make best use of the extra revenue that you all have and continue to generate for the nation.”
-An amendment to the Value Added Tax Law will be introduced. At present the maximum rate of taxes on luxury goods that can be paid is 50%, the amendment will increase this maximum rate to 100%.
-The Government will gradually abolish exit taxes for Indonesians travelling overseas. As a first step, the government will abolish exit taxes for Indonesians travelling to Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam.
Spending:
-Electrification in villages to be the priority of the rural development budget. Where villages are already electrified, the priority will be given to the tiling of floors and roofs.
-Development of Toll Roads along the Northern Coast of Java to be prioritized to achieve the target of linking the Western and Eastern Coasts of Java by 17th August 2004.
-As of 1st April 2002, the Government’s PNPM Program will take effect and will take the place of the Left Behind Villages. There were some murmurs of disapproval from the direction of the PKPB DPR members forcing Harmoko to call for silence.
-As of 1st April 2002, the Government will be abolishing the Presidential Instruction on Primary Schools and instituting two Presidential Instructions in its place:
The first is a Presidential Instruction on Kindergartens. This Presidential Instruction will provide funding for the construction of kindergartens. This will involve the construction of an additional classroom in existing 6-roomed primary school blocks for kindergarteners, tables and chairs, visual aids, and playground equipments. The instruction will also seek to increase training places for those studying to be kindergarten teachers.
The second is a Presidential Instruction on Junior High Schools. This Presidential Instruction will provide funding for the construction of junior high school blocks comprising of 3 classrooms, a laboratory and a library.
23rd January 2002:
The Presidential Palace held a ceremony that afternoon. First, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Albert Hasibuan, in the presence of the President, administered oaths of office to the following:
*Drs. Marzuki Usman MA as Chairman of the BPK
*Gen. Luhut Panjaitan as Vice Chairman of the BPK
*M. Syaifuddin Kartasasmita SH as Deputy Chief Justice of the Supreme Court
Once this ceremony was done, it was the President’s turn as he swore in the following:
*Gen. TB Hasanuddin as Army Chief of Staff
Appearing on a television interview, the Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto was asked about the PKPI-PPP Coalition which is now approaching its first week anniversary. Prabowo downplayed the significance of the coalition. He said that while the coalition has made the PKPB rethink its election strategy, he feels that it hasn’t changed the dynamic that was at play before the coalition was formed, namely that the PKPB was gaining ground on both the PKPI and the PPP. Prabowo said that the election was still the PKPI’s to lose.
When asked about what he thought about the Draft Budget, Prabowo said that 4 months out from the election, the President has finally realized that villages, not just cities, need to be developed.
He added that people in rural areas can’t be blamed for being disillusioned with the government because while they are still living in houses with dirt floors, the government has thrown a lot of money towards the construction of an MRT in Jakarta as well as a bus network system imported from Latin America in Surabaya.
24th January 2002:
Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Mar’ie Muhamad, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, and Edi Sudrajat had their first session with PT. Freeport Indonesia.
Edi assured CEO of PT Freeport Indonesia Adrianto Machrabie that they will no have to pay money directly to the Irian Jaya Regional Military Command but that it would have to be a two-way street, the Irian Jaya Regional Military Command must not accept or ask while Freeport must not offer or give. Machrabie asked that this provision be put as an amendment in the contract. Djiteng agreed.
The negotiations however ran into a dead end when Djiteng asked for more royalties from Freeport. Machrabie said that he thought the Indonesian Government did not have anymore requests to make from Freeport other than the divestment of its shares. Djiteng shrugged and said that if Freeport wanted to settle some issues, there were other issues that the government would like to settle as well.
25th January 2002:
After a meeting with the President, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones Jusuf Kalla, Governor of BI Boediono, Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu held a joint press conference to announce the following policy package:
Credit Policies:
The following are designated as priority business activities of the economy and to be given more lenient conditions for credit and financing by state banks:
-Real estate more specifically the construction of very simple houses, simple houses, and apartments not defined as luxurious.
-Animal husbandry and fish farming especially those involving the breeding of cows, chickens, and fish.
-Sago plantations
-Derivatives of coffee, tea, corn, and fruits
-Iron ore, bauxite, and nickel smelters
-Enterprises producing electronics and automotive components
-Budget hotels close to tourist destinations
Special Economic Zones:
BKPM Offices in the Special Economic Zones are authorized to issue the following licenses simultaneously with an investor’s Business License:
-The investor’s deed of incorporation
-The Taxpayer Number (if not already obtained)
-Temporary Stay Visa and Utilization of Foreign Workers License (if a foreign investor)
-A Company Registration Certificate
-Importers’ Identification Number
In his announcement, Dorodjatun said that the government is using its authority to direct economic activity to priority areas and simplifying investment procedures in Special Economic Zone to generate economic activity there as well.
26th January 2002:
The President’s lunchtime was with businessman Sofyan Wanandi. Sofyan spoke about how the business world was reacting to the PKPI-PPP Coalition. The general consensus in the business world is the same as that of Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri: that the President has improved his odds of regaining control regardless of how the PKPI would fare in the elections.
Those who were for the President in the business industry welcomed this development because as it stands, they knew it would be a hard fight against Tutut and the PKPB. Sofyan classified business sectors which were for the President as including those in manufacturing consumer goods, exporting consumer goods, the tourism and hospitality industries, some elements of the media sector, and small and medium enterprises.
Those who were against the President see this as meaning that they have to divert more money Tutut’s way. Those in the business sector who are against the President include those with forest concessions, some elements of the banking sector who had not enjoyed paying their BLBI repayments, some elements of the media, and government contractors who find it harder to bribe themselves into lucrative contracts. As Sofyan said, anyone whose lost money in the last few years is not interested in “another 5 years of Try”.
Sofyan’s concern is the Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie. Bakrie is now heading in the direction of neutrality and he has not shown regret that he had tried to derail the PKPI-PPP Coalition from happening at the last minute.
“If we’re talking about Ical”, began Sofyan referring to Bakrie by his nickname “Then we’re talking about Ginandjar: I don’t know what his game is Mr. President, but he’s not such a good minister of foreign affairs, I’d call for his replacement.”
The President smiled.
“What would your advice be?” he asked “Whose support should I be getting?”
“Get the property sector behind you, Mr. President”, replied Sofyan “That’s a lot of money you can throw into the campaign with them behind you. Mining, oil, and gas are staying neutral so don’t bother. They don’t want to give you a reason to go after them the way you’re going after the forest concessionaires. Go with the property sector, each time you complete a piece of infrastructure near their project, said project increases in value. They should be in your pocket and supporting you except for the fact that they’re still a bit miffed that you reshuffled Enggartiasto last year.”
27th January 2002:
The President, under orders once again by the First Lady to take Sunday of, managed to convince her to allow him to gather his Four Horsemen around him Edi Sudrajat, Harsudiono Hartas, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto. They discussed the Chairman of ICMI Nurcholish Madjid’s petition.
“It is gaining ground, gaining signatures and it will be brought to you soon”, reported Harsudiono.
“Which organizations has signed it?” asked Try.
“There are those who genuinely want to sit this one out: ICMI obviously, the Indonesian Cooperatives Council (Dekopin), the Indonesian Muslim Scholars Assembly (MUI), the Indonesian Doctors’ Association (IDI), the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) and the like…these organizations have signed on. Of course the Republic of Indonesia Civil Servants’ Corps (KORPRI) are neutral because civil servants are required to be neutral by law.
Religious organizations have also signed on: the Indonesian Bishops’ Conference (KWI) for the Catholics, the Alliance of Churches in Indonesia (PGI) for the Protestants, the Representatives of Indonesian Buddhists (WALUBI) for Buddhists, the Indonesian Hindus Association (PHDI) for Hindus, and the Indonesian Supreme Council for Confucianism (MATAKIN) for the Confucians”, said Harsudiono.
“The big ones will be asking for your permission to sign the petition soon because they’re too big not to have any interactions with whoever is in government after the 2003 MPR Session. The Indonesian Farmers Harmony Association (HKTI), the All-Indonesian Fishermens’ Association (HNSI), the All-Indonesian Workers’ Union (SPSI), the Republic of Indonesia Teachers’ Union (PGRI), the Indonesian Journalists’ Union (PWI), the Indonesian Womens’ Congress (Kowani)…Kadin in the most recent days are pledging neutrality.
The ones going through internal divisions are also signing on because their organizations would not be able to survive it if they declared their support for a party. The Indonesian Young Businessmen’s Association (HIPMI), the Indonesian Engineers’ Association (PII), the Islamic Students Association Alumni Corps (KAHMI), the Indonesian Youths National Committee (KNPI) and of course the the Children of Retired ABRI Members Communications Forum (FKPPI)”, reported Ari Sudewo.
“How should I play it with them when this petition comes?” asked Try.
“Play nice, don’t do what your predecessor did when a petition came to him” said Harsudiono.
“These are some of the most prominent organizations in the country, Mr. President”, added Ari “It’s very likely they will end up being represented in the MPR.”
Try nodded his head thoughtfully at that. It was by the mandate of the constitution that the MPR has always represented not just political parties and the regions but literally the various groups that exists in society such as businesses, labor, the press, those in the cultural sector, and religious officials.
“Who is unreservedly on the President and the PKPI’s side?” asked Sugeng Subroto.
“The Indonesian Businessman’s Association (Apindo) which is led by Sofyan Wanandi, the Indonesian Exports Businesses Federation (GPEI), the Retired ABRI Officers Association (Pepabri), the Indonesian Economic Scholars’ Association (ISEI) and of course, the Nahdlatul Ulama and the Muhammadiyah”, said Harsudiono “Though in Muhammadiyah’s case, a sizeable section of that organization supports the PKPB though they are not in the majority.”
The conversation moved on next to the vacant Junior Minister of Finance’s position. Try explained what he had intended to do the previous week and the calculation that went behind it. The Four Horsemen supported them in this.
“It’s the timing of when to do this that confuses me”, said Try “This week it was the Draft Budget, next week it will be the Conference of Cooperation with Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam.”
“You’re the incumbent, Mr. President”, said Sugeng with a smile “You don’t have spare time to plot the way Tutut and Megawati do.”
“If he goes ahead with it, will he still have the element of surprise?” asked Edi to no one in particular.
“He will”, said Ari “Everybody else is focusing on election preparations, the vacant position to be filled is “just” the junior ministry of finance, they think you have finished making your final preparations, there’s less than 120 days to go to the election, nobody would ever expect a reshuffle.”
---
It’s only January and it’s already a busy year.
Aziz Khan the new ITTL de facto most powerful man in Pakistan and his wanting Chinese and Russian mediation is based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Khan_(general) . What I wanted to convey mostly about Indonesia in this situation is that even though it’s done a lot better than OTL, it’s still at a stage where even big nations friendly towards it (like India) is saying “Sorry, you can’t sit at the big boys’ table now”.
The number of registered individual taxpayers on 1st January 1998 is based on https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...h+wajib+pajak+1997&pg=PA3&printsec=frontcover
The exit tax mentioned here will be remembered by Indonesian readers, if they’re old enough, as the “fiskal” paid at the airport prior to departing overseas. The significance that it’s been abolished for those going to Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam is that these 4 nations are supportive of Indonesia playing a more decisive role as leader in Southeast Asia.
The Presidential Instruction on Primary Schools (SD Inpres) was a program initiated by Soeharto in OTL. While responsible for improving access to primary school education through rapid construction of school buildings, teacher training, and textbooks, the program was prone to being taken advantage of by corrupt bureaucrats who would receive bribes from contractors bidding to build the school buildings. As a result of money going into the pockets of these corrupt officials, there’s less money to actually build durable school buildings and there are endless cases of these SD Inpres buildings collapsing around Indonesia. Somehow the OTL Indonesian Government never graduated to a Presidential Instruction on Junior High Schools so I thought it was a natural progression.
Lenient credit conditions for priority economic activities are ripped off from OTL South Korea under Park Chung Hee giving low-interest loans to businesses wanting to export its products. The simplified procedures in special economic zones based on OTL simplified procedures in special economic zones https://kek.go.id/kemudahan-perizinan
Before President Try Sutrisno could make his move, he did not feel well. His doctors, First Lady Tuti Setiawati, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat all told him to take a rest because it was a Sunday anyway. The President complained that the timing was great to make his move but Edi said that there will be better timing.
21st January 2002:
The Presidential Palace played host to a full cabinet meeting chaired by the President and attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin, the ministers, and the heads of the agencies. In his opening address, the President welcomed those in attendance to their final full calendar year of the term saying that he will still be asking for their best and calling on them not to be distracted by the election, saying that if they are doing good work, this good work will be reflected in the results of the election.
There were a lot of items on the agenda:
*The first order of business was to discuss the after effects of the fuel price adjustment. Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja reported small increases in transport fares while Minister of Trade Anthony Salim also reported small increases in prices of basic commodities due to the fuel price adjustments but that these are very small adjustments.
Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti said that this was due to the timing of the fuel price adjustment, conducted when inflation is low and currency is strong and with completed infrastructure projects pushing costs down.
*The second item on the agenda, with Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad as the speaker, was the Draft 2002/2003 Budget which the President will present to the DPR the next day and got the cabinet’s general approval.
The President invited Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita to make some comments about a budget measure that will have an impact on other nations in the region. Ginandjar said that the nations in question are aware of it, they welcome it, and are asking what “quid pro quo” Indonesia will be asking for.
*Wiranto reported on the third issue which was that Thailand’s Military Contingent had arrived in the Philippines to join the the Filipino-led operations against Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah. Wiranto also reported that President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada had authorized for operations to start this coming week. The President approved of these developments.
*Ginandjar spoke next about developments between India and Pakistan. The situation had deteriorated over there after a terrorist attack by Pakistani Terrorist Group Lashkar E-Toiba. When India had demanded action by the Pakistan Government, President/Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf was on the verge of taking decisive action just as suggested by President Try. Instead Musharraf was overthrown in a soft coup with Chief of Army Staff Aziz Khan now holding de facto power there as the Chief Executive. Aziz Khan has now gone on and asked Russia and China to mediate.
Ginandjar explained that Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee had asked for Indonesia to be involved in the talks considering that Southeast Asia is the “region next door” and that Indonesia is the “leader there”. But China vetoed this saying Indonesia is “unsuitable”, Pakistan agreed reflecting the worry that Musharraf will be a “Try” while Russia does not have a strong stance but tagged along with China and Russia. Ginandjar then produced a letter from Vajpayee which he gave to the President and which he in turn passed to Sumarlin. Sumarlin read it, it was an apologetic letter saying that Indonesia was not going to be part of the talks despite India’s desire that the President use his influence on Musharraf and that a strong Indonesia in Southeast Asia was still in India’s interest.
“How nice of China to have that opinion of us”, muttered Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo as everybody murmured in agreement.
“Where’s the United States in all this?” asked Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas.
“They’re busy bombing the hell out of Afghanistan after failing to capture Bin Laden at Tora Bora”, said Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar “It seems like that McCain’s forgotten about Russia and China for now.”
The President read Vajpayee’s letter again and then asked his Aide-de-Camp to handed it to Ginandjar.
“Please tell Prime Minister Vajpayee that we understand his position and that we know he doesn’t mean any harm by it”, he told Ginandjar before turning to the rest of the meeting “The best thing for us to do is to take advantage of our not being part of the equation. Speaking from personal experience, the upside of being underestimated is that they will never see you coming until you land your punch on them.”
When the cabinet meeting broke up with Junior Minister of Finance Marzuki Usman was shaking hands effusively with his colleagues, this being the last cabinet meeting he will attend.
22nd January 2002:
With Chairman of the DPR Harmoko presiding and in the presence of DPR members, the President today delivered the 2002/2003 Draft Budget the highlights of which are the following:
Revenue:
-There is extra revenue available for the government as a result of the 10 year debt moratorium approved by the Paris Club and backed by the United States as part of Indonesia becoming a strategic partner in the War of Terror. This debt moratorium means that the Indonesian Government does not have to pay back debt for 10 years.
-The number of individual registered taxpayers continues to increase from year to year owing to improving and good economic conditions. 1,26 million taxpayers as of 1 January 1998, 1,45 million as of 1 January 1999, 1,77 million as of 1 January 2000, 2,32 million as of 1 January 2001, 3,01 million as of 1 January 2002.
“I thank all of you for your awareness towards your obligations as citizens”, said the President as he bowed his head for the camera “I pledge to make best use of the extra revenue that you all have and continue to generate for the nation.”
-An amendment to the Value Added Tax Law will be introduced. At present the maximum rate of taxes on luxury goods that can be paid is 50%, the amendment will increase this maximum rate to 100%.
-The Government will gradually abolish exit taxes for Indonesians travelling overseas. As a first step, the government will abolish exit taxes for Indonesians travelling to Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam.
Spending:
-Electrification in villages to be the priority of the rural development budget. Where villages are already electrified, the priority will be given to the tiling of floors and roofs.
-Development of Toll Roads along the Northern Coast of Java to be prioritized to achieve the target of linking the Western and Eastern Coasts of Java by 17th August 2004.
-As of 1st April 2002, the Government’s PNPM Program will take effect and will take the place of the Left Behind Villages. There were some murmurs of disapproval from the direction of the PKPB DPR members forcing Harmoko to call for silence.
-As of 1st April 2002, the Government will be abolishing the Presidential Instruction on Primary Schools and instituting two Presidential Instructions in its place:
The first is a Presidential Instruction on Kindergartens. This Presidential Instruction will provide funding for the construction of kindergartens. This will involve the construction of an additional classroom in existing 6-roomed primary school blocks for kindergarteners, tables and chairs, visual aids, and playground equipments. The instruction will also seek to increase training places for those studying to be kindergarten teachers.
The second is a Presidential Instruction on Junior High Schools. This Presidential Instruction will provide funding for the construction of junior high school blocks comprising of 3 classrooms, a laboratory and a library.
23rd January 2002:
The Presidential Palace held a ceremony that afternoon. First, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Albert Hasibuan, in the presence of the President, administered oaths of office to the following:
*Drs. Marzuki Usman MA as Chairman of the BPK
*Gen. Luhut Panjaitan as Vice Chairman of the BPK
*M. Syaifuddin Kartasasmita SH as Deputy Chief Justice of the Supreme Court
Once this ceremony was done, it was the President’s turn as he swore in the following:
*Gen. TB Hasanuddin as Army Chief of Staff
Appearing on a television interview, the Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto was asked about the PKPI-PPP Coalition which is now approaching its first week anniversary. Prabowo downplayed the significance of the coalition. He said that while the coalition has made the PKPB rethink its election strategy, he feels that it hasn’t changed the dynamic that was at play before the coalition was formed, namely that the PKPB was gaining ground on both the PKPI and the PPP. Prabowo said that the election was still the PKPI’s to lose.
When asked about what he thought about the Draft Budget, Prabowo said that 4 months out from the election, the President has finally realized that villages, not just cities, need to be developed.
He added that people in rural areas can’t be blamed for being disillusioned with the government because while they are still living in houses with dirt floors, the government has thrown a lot of money towards the construction of an MRT in Jakarta as well as a bus network system imported from Latin America in Surabaya.
24th January 2002:
Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Mar’ie Muhamad, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, and Edi Sudrajat had their first session with PT. Freeport Indonesia.
Edi assured CEO of PT Freeport Indonesia Adrianto Machrabie that they will no have to pay money directly to the Irian Jaya Regional Military Command but that it would have to be a two-way street, the Irian Jaya Regional Military Command must not accept or ask while Freeport must not offer or give. Machrabie asked that this provision be put as an amendment in the contract. Djiteng agreed.
The negotiations however ran into a dead end when Djiteng asked for more royalties from Freeport. Machrabie said that he thought the Indonesian Government did not have anymore requests to make from Freeport other than the divestment of its shares. Djiteng shrugged and said that if Freeport wanted to settle some issues, there were other issues that the government would like to settle as well.
25th January 2002:
After a meeting with the President, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones Jusuf Kalla, Governor of BI Boediono, Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu held a joint press conference to announce the following policy package:
Credit Policies:
The following are designated as priority business activities of the economy and to be given more lenient conditions for credit and financing by state banks:
-Real estate more specifically the construction of very simple houses, simple houses, and apartments not defined as luxurious.
-Animal husbandry and fish farming especially those involving the breeding of cows, chickens, and fish.
-Sago plantations
-Derivatives of coffee, tea, corn, and fruits
-Iron ore, bauxite, and nickel smelters
-Enterprises producing electronics and automotive components
-Budget hotels close to tourist destinations
Special Economic Zones:
BKPM Offices in the Special Economic Zones are authorized to issue the following licenses simultaneously with an investor’s Business License:
-The investor’s deed of incorporation
-The Taxpayer Number (if not already obtained)
-Temporary Stay Visa and Utilization of Foreign Workers License (if a foreign investor)
-A Company Registration Certificate
-Importers’ Identification Number
In his announcement, Dorodjatun said that the government is using its authority to direct economic activity to priority areas and simplifying investment procedures in Special Economic Zone to generate economic activity there as well.
26th January 2002:
The President’s lunchtime was with businessman Sofyan Wanandi. Sofyan spoke about how the business world was reacting to the PKPI-PPP Coalition. The general consensus in the business world is the same as that of Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri: that the President has improved his odds of regaining control regardless of how the PKPI would fare in the elections.
Those who were for the President in the business industry welcomed this development because as it stands, they knew it would be a hard fight against Tutut and the PKPB. Sofyan classified business sectors which were for the President as including those in manufacturing consumer goods, exporting consumer goods, the tourism and hospitality industries, some elements of the media sector, and small and medium enterprises.
Those who were against the President see this as meaning that they have to divert more money Tutut’s way. Those in the business sector who are against the President include those with forest concessions, some elements of the banking sector who had not enjoyed paying their BLBI repayments, some elements of the media, and government contractors who find it harder to bribe themselves into lucrative contracts. As Sofyan said, anyone whose lost money in the last few years is not interested in “another 5 years of Try”.
Sofyan’s concern is the Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie. Bakrie is now heading in the direction of neutrality and he has not shown regret that he had tried to derail the PKPI-PPP Coalition from happening at the last minute.
“If we’re talking about Ical”, began Sofyan referring to Bakrie by his nickname “Then we’re talking about Ginandjar: I don’t know what his game is Mr. President, but he’s not such a good minister of foreign affairs, I’d call for his replacement.”
The President smiled.
“What would your advice be?” he asked “Whose support should I be getting?”
“Get the property sector behind you, Mr. President”, replied Sofyan “That’s a lot of money you can throw into the campaign with them behind you. Mining, oil, and gas are staying neutral so don’t bother. They don’t want to give you a reason to go after them the way you’re going after the forest concessionaires. Go with the property sector, each time you complete a piece of infrastructure near their project, said project increases in value. They should be in your pocket and supporting you except for the fact that they’re still a bit miffed that you reshuffled Enggartiasto last year.”
27th January 2002:
The President, under orders once again by the First Lady to take Sunday of, managed to convince her to allow him to gather his Four Horsemen around him Edi Sudrajat, Harsudiono Hartas, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto. They discussed the Chairman of ICMI Nurcholish Madjid’s petition.
“It is gaining ground, gaining signatures and it will be brought to you soon”, reported Harsudiono.
“Which organizations has signed it?” asked Try.
“There are those who genuinely want to sit this one out: ICMI obviously, the Indonesian Cooperatives Council (Dekopin), the Indonesian Muslim Scholars Assembly (MUI), the Indonesian Doctors’ Association (IDI), the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) and the like…these organizations have signed on. Of course the Republic of Indonesia Civil Servants’ Corps (KORPRI) are neutral because civil servants are required to be neutral by law.
Religious organizations have also signed on: the Indonesian Bishops’ Conference (KWI) for the Catholics, the Alliance of Churches in Indonesia (PGI) for the Protestants, the Representatives of Indonesian Buddhists (WALUBI) for Buddhists, the Indonesian Hindus Association (PHDI) for Hindus, and the Indonesian Supreme Council for Confucianism (MATAKIN) for the Confucians”, said Harsudiono.
“The big ones will be asking for your permission to sign the petition soon because they’re too big not to have any interactions with whoever is in government after the 2003 MPR Session. The Indonesian Farmers Harmony Association (HKTI), the All-Indonesian Fishermens’ Association (HNSI), the All-Indonesian Workers’ Union (SPSI), the Republic of Indonesia Teachers’ Union (PGRI), the Indonesian Journalists’ Union (PWI), the Indonesian Womens’ Congress (Kowani)…Kadin in the most recent days are pledging neutrality.
The ones going through internal divisions are also signing on because their organizations would not be able to survive it if they declared their support for a party. The Indonesian Young Businessmen’s Association (HIPMI), the Indonesian Engineers’ Association (PII), the Islamic Students Association Alumni Corps (KAHMI), the Indonesian Youths National Committee (KNPI) and of course the the Children of Retired ABRI Members Communications Forum (FKPPI)”, reported Ari Sudewo.
“How should I play it with them when this petition comes?” asked Try.
“Play nice, don’t do what your predecessor did when a petition came to him” said Harsudiono.
“These are some of the most prominent organizations in the country, Mr. President”, added Ari “It’s very likely they will end up being represented in the MPR.”
Try nodded his head thoughtfully at that. It was by the mandate of the constitution that the MPR has always represented not just political parties and the regions but literally the various groups that exists in society such as businesses, labor, the press, those in the cultural sector, and religious officials.
“Who is unreservedly on the President and the PKPI’s side?” asked Sugeng Subroto.
“The Indonesian Businessman’s Association (Apindo) which is led by Sofyan Wanandi, the Indonesian Exports Businesses Federation (GPEI), the Retired ABRI Officers Association (Pepabri), the Indonesian Economic Scholars’ Association (ISEI) and of course, the Nahdlatul Ulama and the Muhammadiyah”, said Harsudiono “Though in Muhammadiyah’s case, a sizeable section of that organization supports the PKPB though they are not in the majority.”
The conversation moved on next to the vacant Junior Minister of Finance’s position. Try explained what he had intended to do the previous week and the calculation that went behind it. The Four Horsemen supported them in this.
“It’s the timing of when to do this that confuses me”, said Try “This week it was the Draft Budget, next week it will be the Conference of Cooperation with Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam.”
“You’re the incumbent, Mr. President”, said Sugeng with a smile “You don’t have spare time to plot the way Tutut and Megawati do.”
“If he goes ahead with it, will he still have the element of surprise?” asked Edi to no one in particular.
“He will”, said Ari “Everybody else is focusing on election preparations, the vacant position to be filled is “just” the junior ministry of finance, they think you have finished making your final preparations, there’s less than 120 days to go to the election, nobody would ever expect a reshuffle.”
---
It’s only January and it’s already a busy year.
Aziz Khan the new ITTL de facto most powerful man in Pakistan and his wanting Chinese and Russian mediation is based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Khan_(general) . What I wanted to convey mostly about Indonesia in this situation is that even though it’s done a lot better than OTL, it’s still at a stage where even big nations friendly towards it (like India) is saying “Sorry, you can’t sit at the big boys’ table now”.
The number of registered individual taxpayers on 1st January 1998 is based on https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...h+wajib+pajak+1997&pg=PA3&printsec=frontcover
The exit tax mentioned here will be remembered by Indonesian readers, if they’re old enough, as the “fiskal” paid at the airport prior to departing overseas. The significance that it’s been abolished for those going to Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam is that these 4 nations are supportive of Indonesia playing a more decisive role as leader in Southeast Asia.
The Presidential Instruction on Primary Schools (SD Inpres) was a program initiated by Soeharto in OTL. While responsible for improving access to primary school education through rapid construction of school buildings, teacher training, and textbooks, the program was prone to being taken advantage of by corrupt bureaucrats who would receive bribes from contractors bidding to build the school buildings. As a result of money going into the pockets of these corrupt officials, there’s less money to actually build durable school buildings and there are endless cases of these SD Inpres buildings collapsing around Indonesia. Somehow the OTL Indonesian Government never graduated to a Presidential Instruction on Junior High Schools so I thought it was a natural progression.
Lenient credit conditions for priority economic activities are ripped off from OTL South Korea under Park Chung Hee giving low-interest loans to businesses wanting to export its products. The simplified procedures in special economic zones based on OTL simplified procedures in special economic zones https://kek.go.id/kemudahan-perizinan
I wonder how Try can punch Aziz and company. I dont think he will reach the point of banning Pakistan exports/imports, but maybe inducing other pro-Try countries to have a say on the situation, regardless of how much relevance they have on the global stage (SEA, Nigeria, South Africa and so on).
Oh, I don’t think Pakistan is the country Try is most interested in “landing a punch” on.
155: The Bromo Talks
28th January 2002:
President Try Sutrisno and his delegation touched down in Ambon, Maluku where he was welcomed by Governor of Maluku Saleh Latuconsina. The President’s first stop was a Joint Department of Agriculture and Bulog Work Meeting for officers in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku which he opened accompanied by Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna.
In his keynote address the President called on the Department of Agriculture officers in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya to place the same emphasis on sago production in the future that had been put on rice in the past. Bulog Provincial offices in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya to work hard as they make the three year transition from securing rice stocks to securing sago stocks in these three provinces.
At lunch, the President sat with Sarwono, Adang, and Saleh Latuconsina as they ate papeda, a sago-based dish. Afterwards, Sarwono spoke to the press saying that the President was looking to the future by the focus he’s placing sago unlike others who just want to “copy and paste” from the past with rice, rice, rice. Sarwono laughed when asked if sago farmers will support the PKPI by saying that it must be real close to the elections to get these kinds of questions.
After departing the Department of Agriculture and Bulog, the President had a meeting with Saleh and the upper echelons of the Maluku Provincial Government. After that, accompanied by State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno and Saleh, the President inaugurated Pattimura Park. The park was named after Pattimura, a National Hero of Maluku origin and whose statue was at the center of the park. The President made a speech calling for all cities in Indonesia to not only become economic centers but also cultural centers.
29th January 2002:
After spending the night at Ambon, the President and his delegation flew in the morning to Sumbawa Island, West Nusa Tenggara. Accompanied by Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar and Governor of West Nusa Tenggara Burhan Magenda, the President inaugurated the Batubulan Dam, a dam which will provide irrigation to 5,000 hectares of land used for agriculture.
The President then toured the dam, shaking hands with locals and those who had worked on the dam along the way. He took the opportunity to ask them whether or not they have electricity in their homes, this being a rural area. He was happy to note that most of them got electricity within the last 5 years while still noting that there were those did not have electricity yet.
From Batubulan, the President and his entourage headed back to Sumbawa City from where they flew to Surabaya, East Java. As he was on his way to his hotel, the President could see that the city was ready for the Conference of Cooperation with banners around the city containing images of the Indonesian, Thai, Filipino, Laotian and Vietnamese flags.
30th January 2002:
The first to arrive that morning, the first to arrive for the conference, and which was using the occasion for a visit was the Vietnamese Delegation led by Prime Minister of Vietnam Phan Van Khai. Conveying General Secretary Nong Duc Manh’s greetings, Khai said that Vietnam is thankful that Indonesia is “stepping up”. Khai, who was accompanied by Vietnam Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyen Dy Nien, said that in recent times the interests of the United States, Russia, and China are contrary to that of Vietnam’s.
Try, accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, said that Indonesia did not approve of the attempted interference of the Vietnamese Communist Party’s National Congress because if such interference was allowed to stand it would not be good for Southeast Asia. Try said Vietnam’s participation and support counts a lot towards Southeast Asia’s strategic goals.
Try and Khai discussed various issues. Khai said that Vietnam was not able to bring up the question of the Cam Ranh Naval Base at the ASEAN Summit due to the acrimonious atmosphere. Try said that Russia also did not bring it up with Indonesia at the APEC Summit but will be keeping an eye on developments, mindful that Russia being present in a Southeast Asian Naval Base while aligned to China was not ideal. Ginandjar said Indonesia would broached the issue once Russia completes delivery of weapons Indonesia has purchased from it.
Khai moved on to another meeting to discuss economic issues where the Indonesian delegation included Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Economics and National Development Dorodjatun Kunjtoro-Jakti, and Minister of Trade Anthony Salim.
Try, Ginandjar, and Edi meanwhile moved on to welcoming other guests. Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada, and Prime Minister of Laos Bounnhang Vourachith. There was no opening dinner, instead all of the presidents and prime ministers departed at night from Surabaya to Probolinggo.
31st January 2002:
It was still dark when all of the special guests were woken up and with instructions to bring warm clothing. When asked where they were going, the conference’s officials told their guests “to the top of the mountain”. By the time they were at the top of Mt. Bromo, all of the presidents and prime ministers were on jeeps. Everyone looked on in awe as they watched the sun rise over the mountain and applauded when President Try proudly said “Welcome to Indonesia!”
The five leaders sat a table eating instant noodles as they discussed the situation. Try thanked the “like-minded leaders” for coming along to this conference. He said that the conference is not to undermine ASEAN but to strengthen it saying that the goal is to realize the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality which ASEAN agreed to in 1971. Try reminded all that one of the tenets of ZOPFAN is that ASEAN should be “free from any form or manner of interference by outside powers” but that at the present time an outside power is trying to intervene in Southeast Asian affairs and that at the same time Southeast Asia should prevent from taking sides in what is being called the “New Cold War”.
“What I am proposing is not the Warsaw Pact, Indonesia does not have the desire or the capability to turn nations in the region into satellites”, Try said “What I am proposing is to act as a bloc, to consult each other on matters that may have an effect on the region and to coordinate our responses; Laos on its own may not have the strength to stand up to China but it might just have a chance if everyone throws its support behind Laos.”
The topic then moved on to other Southeast Asian Nations who were not there at the conference. Cambodia, according to Try, was rapidly drifting in China’s orbit after China had supported Hun Sen’s coup in 1997. Thaksin said that Cambodia “was not lost” and urged other nations in the conference to invest in and trade with Cambodia in a bid to counter Chinese economic influence citing the fact that he still had business interests there. Khai also shared Thaksin’s sentiments that Cambodia was not lost yet saying that President of the Cambodian National Assembly and Leader of Funcinpec Norodom Ranariddh is putting pressure on Hun Sen.
Malaysia was next. Thaksin commented that Malaysia’s only interest seems to be preventing Indonesia’s increasing prominence in the region and that was why it was looking in China’s direction. Estrada agreed but said that there was nothing Malaysia can do saying that Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand surround it on three sides. Vourachith said was that Malaysia was big enough and strong enough to exert pressure on Brunei and Singapore, Brunei because it is surrounded on all sides by Malaysia and Singapore because its water is controlled by Malaysia although the Singaporeans are rapidly trying to decrease its dependence on Malaysia for water. Try agreed, saying this was why Malaysia is crucial for China’s interests in Southeast Asia.
Thaksin said that Myanmar will be key for the bloc. Thaksin thought that he was making progress on Chairman of the SPDC Than Shwe and said that if Try paid him a visit or invited him to come to Indonesia, the general would join the bloc and give it control of 6 seats the next time ASEAN meets in a summit. Estrada said that it was not only because of Thaksin’s work but also because the Indians are actively encouraging Myanmar to join “Indonesia’s bloc”. Try smiled and thought to himself that the Indians were keeping their word.
The discussion then revolved to the major world powers how the United States and its coalition grows unpopular around the world with their bomb-happy approach in Afghanistan, how Russia is trying to take advantage of nations starting to fee disillusioned with the United States, and then of course China. On China, the debate was how China would respond to this conference especially since this group of 5 southeast Asian nations has rejected its participation in ASEAN by refusing to participate in ASEAN+3.
The debate came down to whether or not China underestimated Indonesia but the conclusion was something that all agreed on: China had larger targets it should be focusing on but it could not just ignore Indonesia and Southeast Asia; because how could China see itself as a rising power when it could not even secure its position in the region close to it. As Khai said that in response to the very conference that is being held now, China will have to do “something” in response though they may not know what shape this “something” will take the shape of.
The five leaders held a joint press conference with Try standing in the center, and then they headed back to Surabaya. There was a dinner attended by the five delegations and with some singing of national songs involved.
1st February 2002:
The morning saw the Conference on Cooperation brought to a close. A communiqué was issued. Thaksin had lobbied for and gained the support of conference that the communiqué should use the words Try had used for what was becoming known as the Bromo Talks; that the way for ASEAN to be “free from any form or manner of interference by outside powers” is for the nations within it to act as a bloc, consult, and coordinate with each other on matters with “regional implications”.
At a press conference in the morning, Ginandjar said that aside from the communiqué there was one specific agreement signed during the conference. In exchange for the abolition of exit taxes for Indonesian travelers going to Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam, the governments of Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam has agreed to import soap opera Si Doel Anak Sekolahan and Dono, Kasino, and Indro’s series of comedy movies. The governments will subsidize the dubbing and/or subtitling of Si Doel and Dono Kasino Indro into Thai, Tagalog, Lao, and Vietnamese and secure primetime slots for the broadcasting of these “Indonesian cultural treasures”. Ginandjar said that this means that Indonesia is beginning to export its culture into other Southeast Asian countries.
Ginandjar denied protests, already being issued by Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak, that this conference undermines ASEAN. What undermines ASEAN is if its members are not guarding the regional interests.
After one final photo-op after lunch, the leaders departed for Djuanda International Airport and then back home.
Then it was the President’s turn to depart for Jakarta, thanking Governor of East Java Haris Sudarno for helping with the conference and arranging for the trip to Mt. Bromo.
As he settled on the airplane, the President watched the news. In addition to his talks with fellow leaders on Mt. Bromo, the other main news item was the Chairman of the KPU HBL Mantiri announcing that the Provisional DPR Candidates’ List has now been upgraded to a Final DPR Candidates’ List.
“Whatever you do now, Mr. President, there’s nothing they can do to respond”, said Edi as he joined the President “Everything’s been locked in, there’s no more chopping and changing of DPR candidates by the PKPB or the PNI to gain advantage.”
“Then it’s time”, said Try as he pulled out a list of names from his pocket “Contact them and make sure that I can start meeting with them just as soon as I can arrive in Jakarta.”
---
The Conference of Cooperation is something that happens in ITTL only. It was agreed at the end of the 2001 ASEAN Summit and it's attended by nations which has thrown its backing behind Indonesia in the region. Try takes another step forward here as a regional leader.
President Try Sutrisno and his delegation touched down in Ambon, Maluku where he was welcomed by Governor of Maluku Saleh Latuconsina. The President’s first stop was a Joint Department of Agriculture and Bulog Work Meeting for officers in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku which he opened accompanied by Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna.
In his keynote address the President called on the Department of Agriculture officers in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya to place the same emphasis on sago production in the future that had been put on rice in the past. Bulog Provincial offices in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya to work hard as they make the three year transition from securing rice stocks to securing sago stocks in these three provinces.
At lunch, the President sat with Sarwono, Adang, and Saleh Latuconsina as they ate papeda, a sago-based dish. Afterwards, Sarwono spoke to the press saying that the President was looking to the future by the focus he’s placing sago unlike others who just want to “copy and paste” from the past with rice, rice, rice. Sarwono laughed when asked if sago farmers will support the PKPI by saying that it must be real close to the elections to get these kinds of questions.
After departing the Department of Agriculture and Bulog, the President had a meeting with Saleh and the upper echelons of the Maluku Provincial Government. After that, accompanied by State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno and Saleh, the President inaugurated Pattimura Park. The park was named after Pattimura, a National Hero of Maluku origin and whose statue was at the center of the park. The President made a speech calling for all cities in Indonesia to not only become economic centers but also cultural centers.
29th January 2002:
After spending the night at Ambon, the President and his delegation flew in the morning to Sumbawa Island, West Nusa Tenggara. Accompanied by Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar and Governor of West Nusa Tenggara Burhan Magenda, the President inaugurated the Batubulan Dam, a dam which will provide irrigation to 5,000 hectares of land used for agriculture.
The President then toured the dam, shaking hands with locals and those who had worked on the dam along the way. He took the opportunity to ask them whether or not they have electricity in their homes, this being a rural area. He was happy to note that most of them got electricity within the last 5 years while still noting that there were those did not have electricity yet.
From Batubulan, the President and his entourage headed back to Sumbawa City from where they flew to Surabaya, East Java. As he was on his way to his hotel, the President could see that the city was ready for the Conference of Cooperation with banners around the city containing images of the Indonesian, Thai, Filipino, Laotian and Vietnamese flags.
30th January 2002:
The first to arrive that morning, the first to arrive for the conference, and which was using the occasion for a visit was the Vietnamese Delegation led by Prime Minister of Vietnam Phan Van Khai. Conveying General Secretary Nong Duc Manh’s greetings, Khai said that Vietnam is thankful that Indonesia is “stepping up”. Khai, who was accompanied by Vietnam Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyen Dy Nien, said that in recent times the interests of the United States, Russia, and China are contrary to that of Vietnam’s.
Try, accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, said that Indonesia did not approve of the attempted interference of the Vietnamese Communist Party’s National Congress because if such interference was allowed to stand it would not be good for Southeast Asia. Try said Vietnam’s participation and support counts a lot towards Southeast Asia’s strategic goals.
Try and Khai discussed various issues. Khai said that Vietnam was not able to bring up the question of the Cam Ranh Naval Base at the ASEAN Summit due to the acrimonious atmosphere. Try said that Russia also did not bring it up with Indonesia at the APEC Summit but will be keeping an eye on developments, mindful that Russia being present in a Southeast Asian Naval Base while aligned to China was not ideal. Ginandjar said Indonesia would broached the issue once Russia completes delivery of weapons Indonesia has purchased from it.
Khai moved on to another meeting to discuss economic issues where the Indonesian delegation included Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Economics and National Development Dorodjatun Kunjtoro-Jakti, and Minister of Trade Anthony Salim.
Try, Ginandjar, and Edi meanwhile moved on to welcoming other guests. Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada, and Prime Minister of Laos Bounnhang Vourachith. There was no opening dinner, instead all of the presidents and prime ministers departed at night from Surabaya to Probolinggo.
31st January 2002:
It was still dark when all of the special guests were woken up and with instructions to bring warm clothing. When asked where they were going, the conference’s officials told their guests “to the top of the mountain”. By the time they were at the top of Mt. Bromo, all of the presidents and prime ministers were on jeeps. Everyone looked on in awe as they watched the sun rise over the mountain and applauded when President Try proudly said “Welcome to Indonesia!”
The five leaders sat a table eating instant noodles as they discussed the situation. Try thanked the “like-minded leaders” for coming along to this conference. He said that the conference is not to undermine ASEAN but to strengthen it saying that the goal is to realize the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality which ASEAN agreed to in 1971. Try reminded all that one of the tenets of ZOPFAN is that ASEAN should be “free from any form or manner of interference by outside powers” but that at the present time an outside power is trying to intervene in Southeast Asian affairs and that at the same time Southeast Asia should prevent from taking sides in what is being called the “New Cold War”.
“What I am proposing is not the Warsaw Pact, Indonesia does not have the desire or the capability to turn nations in the region into satellites”, Try said “What I am proposing is to act as a bloc, to consult each other on matters that may have an effect on the region and to coordinate our responses; Laos on its own may not have the strength to stand up to China but it might just have a chance if everyone throws its support behind Laos.”
The topic then moved on to other Southeast Asian Nations who were not there at the conference. Cambodia, according to Try, was rapidly drifting in China’s orbit after China had supported Hun Sen’s coup in 1997. Thaksin said that Cambodia “was not lost” and urged other nations in the conference to invest in and trade with Cambodia in a bid to counter Chinese economic influence citing the fact that he still had business interests there. Khai also shared Thaksin’s sentiments that Cambodia was not lost yet saying that President of the Cambodian National Assembly and Leader of Funcinpec Norodom Ranariddh is putting pressure on Hun Sen.
Malaysia was next. Thaksin commented that Malaysia’s only interest seems to be preventing Indonesia’s increasing prominence in the region and that was why it was looking in China’s direction. Estrada agreed but said that there was nothing Malaysia can do saying that Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand surround it on three sides. Vourachith said was that Malaysia was big enough and strong enough to exert pressure on Brunei and Singapore, Brunei because it is surrounded on all sides by Malaysia and Singapore because its water is controlled by Malaysia although the Singaporeans are rapidly trying to decrease its dependence on Malaysia for water. Try agreed, saying this was why Malaysia is crucial for China’s interests in Southeast Asia.
Thaksin said that Myanmar will be key for the bloc. Thaksin thought that he was making progress on Chairman of the SPDC Than Shwe and said that if Try paid him a visit or invited him to come to Indonesia, the general would join the bloc and give it control of 6 seats the next time ASEAN meets in a summit. Estrada said that it was not only because of Thaksin’s work but also because the Indians are actively encouraging Myanmar to join “Indonesia’s bloc”. Try smiled and thought to himself that the Indians were keeping their word.
The discussion then revolved to the major world powers how the United States and its coalition grows unpopular around the world with their bomb-happy approach in Afghanistan, how Russia is trying to take advantage of nations starting to fee disillusioned with the United States, and then of course China. On China, the debate was how China would respond to this conference especially since this group of 5 southeast Asian nations has rejected its participation in ASEAN by refusing to participate in ASEAN+3.
The debate came down to whether or not China underestimated Indonesia but the conclusion was something that all agreed on: China had larger targets it should be focusing on but it could not just ignore Indonesia and Southeast Asia; because how could China see itself as a rising power when it could not even secure its position in the region close to it. As Khai said that in response to the very conference that is being held now, China will have to do “something” in response though they may not know what shape this “something” will take the shape of.
The five leaders held a joint press conference with Try standing in the center, and then they headed back to Surabaya. There was a dinner attended by the five delegations and with some singing of national songs involved.
1st February 2002:
The morning saw the Conference on Cooperation brought to a close. A communiqué was issued. Thaksin had lobbied for and gained the support of conference that the communiqué should use the words Try had used for what was becoming known as the Bromo Talks; that the way for ASEAN to be “free from any form or manner of interference by outside powers” is for the nations within it to act as a bloc, consult, and coordinate with each other on matters with “regional implications”.
At a press conference in the morning, Ginandjar said that aside from the communiqué there was one specific agreement signed during the conference. In exchange for the abolition of exit taxes for Indonesian travelers going to Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam, the governments of Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam has agreed to import soap opera Si Doel Anak Sekolahan and Dono, Kasino, and Indro’s series of comedy movies. The governments will subsidize the dubbing and/or subtitling of Si Doel and Dono Kasino Indro into Thai, Tagalog, Lao, and Vietnamese and secure primetime slots for the broadcasting of these “Indonesian cultural treasures”. Ginandjar said that this means that Indonesia is beginning to export its culture into other Southeast Asian countries.
Ginandjar denied protests, already being issued by Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak, that this conference undermines ASEAN. What undermines ASEAN is if its members are not guarding the regional interests.
After one final photo-op after lunch, the leaders departed for Djuanda International Airport and then back home.
Then it was the President’s turn to depart for Jakarta, thanking Governor of East Java Haris Sudarno for helping with the conference and arranging for the trip to Mt. Bromo.
As he settled on the airplane, the President watched the news. In addition to his talks with fellow leaders on Mt. Bromo, the other main news item was the Chairman of the KPU HBL Mantiri announcing that the Provisional DPR Candidates’ List has now been upgraded to a Final DPR Candidates’ List.
“Whatever you do now, Mr. President, there’s nothing they can do to respond”, said Edi as he joined the President “Everything’s been locked in, there’s no more chopping and changing of DPR candidates by the PKPB or the PNI to gain advantage.”
“Then it’s time”, said Try as he pulled out a list of names from his pocket “Contact them and make sure that I can start meeting with them just as soon as I can arrive in Jakarta.”
---
The Conference of Cooperation is something that happens in ITTL only. It was agreed at the end of the 2001 ASEAN Summit and it's attended by nations which has thrown its backing behind Indonesia in the region. Try takes another step forward here as a regional leader.
Ooh nice exporting tv series. I remember a time when we imported pinoy and thai series, dubbed in indonesian. Think only lasted 1-2 years
Indowood is good for the Indonesian movie industry. Indonimation for an Indonesian animation industry?
I remembered the Latin American soap operas but never realized we had some Thai and Pinoy series.
Btw
Harmoko died today around 8PM Jakarta - another of the orba generation key players gone
Harmoko died today around 8PM Jakarta - another of the orba generation key players gone
Closed down Tempo, accepted money from people who applied for permits to publish newspapers and magazines, and is the most prominent backstabber of Soeharto in May 1998.
I always think he's pretty unique and always think he had a populist touch. In a regime where officials called each other and prefer to be called "Pak" (Father), he still wanted to be called "Bung" (Brother). Without spoiling anything, this is the aspect of him I want to play up in the TL.