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Indigo Revolution: A Conservative Canada
Prologue: Missed Rendezvous with Destiny
Author’s Briefing: During the Canadian federal election of 2004 (when yours truly first became a political junkie), initial predictions were that Paul Martin’s Liberals would win a landslide majority, with some pollsters predicting over 200 seats of 308 in the 38th Parliament (2004-6 IOTL). Due to the sponsorship scandal causing massive political upheaval in Quebec (where most of the crimes took place) and continuing skirmishes within the Liberal Party after Martin’s ouster of Jean Chretien in 2002-3, predictions were revised to a weakened majority, perhaps a strong minority at best. Stephen Harper’s Tories were at 34% to the Liberals’ 32% in mid-June, but then a series of gaffes made by socially conservative Tory MPs on the polarizing issues of abortion, same-sex marriage and bilingualism cost them their lead, and ultimately the election, with 135 Liberals to 99 Tories. Now, let’s see what happens when Stephen Harper imposes his now-notorious message discipline at the campaign’s outset…
Chapter One, Stopped by Sound: Campaign ‘04
“At the beginning, no one thought we could win it. And I mean no one: even the Post, usually our biggest media backer, felt the best that could be done was a minority government. Nowhere was this more apparent than in Quebec, where the Liberals were being hit badly due to the sponsorship scandal. How was a Conservative leader from Alberta supposed to understand Quebec, supposedly its antithesis in political values? Those were only some of the obstacles we faced.”
Witness to the Revolution: Doug Finley, 2007
PARL’T DISSOLVED FOR JUNE 28 ELECTIONS, MARTIN PREDICTS LIB MAJORITY
- Kelowna, B.C. May 23 “Prime Minister Paul Martin has dissolved Parliament for a June 28 federal election, saying the choice is “your type of Canada.” Earlier today Conservative leader Stephen Harper unveiled the Tory TV ads, which attack the Liberals on foreign policy, interference in provincial jurisdiction, and excessive spending on healthcare. “Prime Minister Martin’s entire domestic program consists of federal spending and intrusion into Constitutionally-defined provincial jurisdiction, such as healthcare and urban spending. If elected, we will respect provincial rights, not trample on them in an orgy of domestic spending.”
LAYTON: NDP WOULD REPEAL CLARITY ACT
Thursday, May 28, 2004
- Regina “In Regina today, NDP leader Jack Layton said that a NDP government would repeal the Clarity Act, enacted under the Chretien government in 1999. Requiring a clear ballot question in the event of another referendum with a qualified, not a bare majority, this legislation has long been denounced by Quebec nationalists. Former Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Stephane Dion attacked Layton’s proposal as a “Christmas present intended to appease potential NDP voters in Quebec.” Both Prime Minister Martin and Tory leader Stephen Harper also denounced Layton’s “reckless brinkmanship” and “pure politicking”. This gesture does not seem to have moved NDP support in Quebec beyond single digits according to the latest CROP-CBC polls, which show the Liberals at 37%, the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 15%, and the Bloc at 11%.”
HARPER ANNOUNCES $50 BILLION IN DEFENCE SPENDING, PROCUREMENT. ENDORSED BY LEGION
Tuesday, June 1, 2004
- HALIFAX, N.S.
In a speech at Halifax’s Legion Hall, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper announced the Conservative defence plank, which includes procurement of new weapons for all three service branches. Harper called the lack of modern supply ships “a national disgrace” and the elderly Sea King helicopters “death traps which endanger the lives of the members of our armed forces.” The speech was well-received by the Legionnaires, who responded with a standing ovation…”
REAGAN DEAD AT 93, MULRONEY, THATCHER, BOTH PRESIDENTS BUSH TO DELIVER EULOGIES
Saturday, June 5, 2004
- WASHINGTON, D.C. Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan died today aged 93 after a long battle with Alzheimer’s disease dating back to 1994. Among those delivering eulogies will be former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, former President Bush and President George W. Bush. All party leaders will be taking a moratorium from campaigning, and Prime Minister Martin will be attending the 60th anniversary of D-Day commemoration in Normandy, France. President Bush, French President Jacques Chirac, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will also be in attendance.
FRENCH DEBATE CONSIDERED DRAW, NO MAJOR HITS SCORED
Wednesday, June 12, 2004 - OTTAWA
None of the four party leaders scored a knockout blow in last night’s televised leaders debate at the National Arts Centre here in Ottawa. Sharp words were exchanged between Prime Minister Martin and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe over the Clarity Act and the sponsorship scandal. Duceppe often referred to “Quebec votes bought with dirty money, just like Team Canada in 1995” which caused an outraged Prime Minister to challenge Mr. Duceppe “to meet me on any street corner in Quebec to debate national unity.”
“As we headed into the home stretch, we went on the offensive in Quebec. Harper’s “open federalism” speech in April had clearly helped our cause. More importantly, we began to see a breakthrough in Ontario due to suburbanites’ outrage at being further taxed to fund Martin’s costly social spending. However, I reminded the team on numerous occasions not to be over-optimistic.” Finley, Witness to the Revolution, p. 211
PHILIPPINES’ ARROYO RE-ELECTED WITH 44% OF VOTE, INAUGURATION JUNE 30
“We are now in the CBC Election Centre, awaiting the polls to close at 8 p.m. Eastern time before we can start making projections… Now we are projecting that the Conservatives will do well in Nova Scotia. In Ontario, the Conservatives are leading in 44 and the Liberals in 62, though these are still early returns. Out of Quebec, some truly remarkable news: the Conservatives are poised to win as many as 10 seats. Josee Verner, the Conservative candidate in Louis St-Laurent, has been declared elected with a 2,300 vote margin over Bloc incumbent Bernard Cleary…”
BREAKING NEWS: CBC, CTV PROJECT CONSERVATIVE MINORITY GOVERNMENT
“CBC can now project that the Conservatives will form the next government, and we’re awaiting a concession speech from Prime Minister Martin. Standby for a statement from Prime Minister-designate Stephen Harper…”
Canadian federal election, June 28 2004
Conservative: 131 seats (+52), 37.2% Liberal: 105 seats (-67) NDP: 20 seats (+7) BQ: 47 seats (+11) Incumbent Prime Minister: Paul Martin (Lib) Prime Minister-designate: Stephen Harper (Con)