Indian/Egyptian Cotton Crop Failure

How so?

Britain and France will still refuse to be blackmailed which is unsettlingly like how the South's offer comes across as.

The Southern diplomats can say that the CSA would love to help the British/French with their cotton shortage but all the cotton is sitting on the docks unable to be shipped due to the blockade. Waving food in front of a hungry man is very tempting!
 
The Southern diplomats can say that the CSA would love to help the British/French with their cotton shortage but all the cotton is sitting on the docks unable to be shipped due to the blockade. Waving food in front of a hungry man is very tempting!

Or the South can botch the opportunity to benefit by continuing its OTL policy.

One interesting question: How long will it take to reach the Confederates in a position to react to it?

I'm not sure the diplomats saying that on their own would mean very much particularly when the Confederacy has been avoiding trying to ship that cotton before this. Hard enough as an official reversal of policy.
 
Or the South can botch the opportunity to benefit by continuing its OTL policy.

One interesting question: How long will it take to reach the Confederates in a position to react to it?

I'm not sure the diplomats saying that on their own would mean very much particularly when the Confederacy has been avoiding trying to ship that cotton before this. Hard enough as an official reversal of policy.

Thanks Elfwine for the spirited discussion. I guess the bottom line here is does a cotton crop failure and subsequent shortage that damages Great Britain's economy leading to war with the US over the blockade seem plausible enough to do a timeline on?

I have a few timelines on the ASB thread but I have been looking to do one without the time travel theme I have been using. So is this a plausible way to go?
 
Thanks Elfwine for the spirited discussion. I guess the bottom line here is does a cotton crop failure and subsequent shortage that damages Great Britain's economy leading to war with the US over the blockade seem plausible enough to do a timeline on?

I have a few timelines on the ASB thread but I have been looking to do one without the time travel theme I have been using. So is this a plausible way to go?

I wouldn't say its entirely implausible, but I wouldn't wager on it.

Its more "This seems very unlikely." kind of implausible than "This would be counter to everything going on." however, so I think its worth a shot

Is Britain capable? Sure. Willing? That's where it gets complicated.

And I'm not familiar enough with the details of the British government to give a good answer on how they would treat the blockade in a situation where its a barrier between British mills and Southern cotton.

That being said, if the politics add up right, you have your war. And it will not end well for the US. Not necessarily destruction, but its at a disadvantage on many levels.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
In addition, war against the US means the end of US corn exports. I believe Europe had poor harvests in 1861 and 1862 and were dependent on US food exports. Plus both Britain and France has extensive investments in the US. All would be jeopardized by an intervention. Once the US issues the Emancipation Proclamation, it would create a lot of difficulties for Britain and France to politically continue any intervention.

This is incorrect. The US had a large surplus (which used to go down the Tennessee and Mississippi rivers and be consumed in the south) which it dumped cheap on the European market. What this did was drive prices down by undercutting domestic produce. 2-3% of calories consumed by the UK were from the American trade. If they don't dump grain then we can add 10 shillings a bushel (and still be 2/3rds of the 1842 price).

Edit: On second thoughts you are correct. Apologies for wasting your time.
 
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