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While re-reading Tom Clancy's "Debt of Honor" recently, a rather odd idea the author had stuck in my mind. According to TC, India was looking outward for territory to expand in, since she was badly overpopulated and short on resources. India has no options in expanding north, west, or east... too many mountains, enemies, or heavy populations already. Thus, India looks out across the Indian Ocean with covetous eyes on Sri Lanka and, of all places, Australia. "A big empty continent", I think the book said. This seems to me a really daffy idea. Is there any basis in fact behind this?
But, since this is AH, let's play with the idea. Background POD: in the wake of the end of the Cold War, the US makes even more cuts in it's military than in OTL. One victim of this is the US base at Diego Garcia, which is mothballed and turned back over to the Brits. With the sudden vaccuum of power, India builds up it's navy far more than in OTL... they already have two VTOL-only carriers from Britian.. maybe they can buy more from Russia or build their own, and some frigates and other support ships. Because of a couple of disastrous harvests that didn't happen in OTL, India's problems with overpopulation is suddenly foremost in their minds. A rather radical expansionist party comes to power, with the secret goal of conquering Sri Lanka and Australia. They build up India's navy and armed forces, publicly to counter Pakistan, but secretly to invade Australia....
OK, let's take it from here. Does India have any chance at all to build up enough forces to invade Australia and hope to win? To be sure, Australia and the US have a defense alliance, but if the USN has been cut back severely, can they hope to intervene? OK, let's hear it....
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