Independent Xinjiang

With any PoD after 1911, have Xingjiang be a fully independent country in the present day. How would this Xinjoang intetact with its neighbors and play a role in geopolitics? What would be the effects? What if?
 
Best changes:

1. Strong support of USSR on 1920's and 1930's and Xinjiang (or Uyhguria) becomes puppet of Soviet Union.

2. Border clashes with China escalate as Sino-Soviet War and USSR captures Xinjiang and create Democratic People's Republic of Uyghuria.
 
In order for that to work, you have to integrate it into the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. :p (j/k, but in reality there are areas of the Tarim Basin which have a large Kazakh-speaking population which could theoretically be part of Kazakhstan in TTL)
 
Barbarossa is delayed to 1942 and as a result the Soviets are able to handily beat it off before going over to the offensive. This means Chiang is never able to convince Roosevelt to convince Stalin, in his moment of distracted desperation, to give up Soviet de-facto control over it. Hence, it ultimately winds up as another Mongolia.

The tough part here is how to avoid the Soviets handing over the region if/when Mao comes to power. Butterfly away CPC victory in the Civil War perhaps?
 
First POD: Stalin doesn't stop the Ili National Army when it's on the verge of capturing Urumqi in 1945. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11115746&postcount=3 He also intervenes in the power struggle between the pro-Soviet "progressive" wing of the Ili rebels (led by Ahmadjan Qasim, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehmetjan_Qasim who had spent a decade in the USSR) against the "Turkic/Islamic" wing so that the "progressive" elements dominate all of Xinjinag, not just the "Three Districts" as in OTL. Then, when Chiang wins the Chinese Civil War (that's the other POD), the East Turkestan Republic declares itself independent and asks for Soviet support...

(Incidentally, in OTL some people find Qasim's death in a plane crash in 1949 a little too convenient for Mao.)

This is not very likely: I do not think Stalin will want to alienate China--even a GMD China--to that extent, though he will try to maneuver to keep some Soviet influence in the "Three Districts."
 
Top