Independent Ukraine after WW1?

[Scarecrow]

Great minds think alike. Although I think a changed general feeling throughout the British and Dominion ruling classes would be even more important that a single person's opinion. (Unless that person is at the height of power, i.e. the British PM).

I am in favour of the 'British PM Changing his opinion' POD. a large scale general feeling change is a bit to far-fetched methinks, when compared with Lloyd George waking up one morning and thinking, you know, those Ukrainians arents such bad chaps after all

The Poles will push for as much as they can get. It really depends on whether or not the displeasure of the Brits and / or Americans is enough to keep them from making war on their neighbours. We briefly touched on Belarus and the Balts, but all the same things that applies to the Ukrainians applies to them too. (i.e. too many enemies, too few allies). Although, OTL the Balts faired much better than the Belarusians.

I was wondering the fate of the Belarusians earlier. Perhaps what i have on my latest map? they dont get free, but divided between Poland and the USSR

Assuming you can unite all the ethnic Ukrainian territories, and create a stable government with outside friends, then Ukraine will be an important nations based on it's large population (bigger than the Poles, making them the largest nation between the Germans and the Russians), and many resources (oil, coal, and black earth soil).

then the Ukraine could be a major headache for Russia/Germany and good potential ally for Poland. perhaps some sort of allience between Poland and the Ukraine in the between the war period, or an expanded Little entente? I think WW2 may be changed rather drasticly...

OTL the Romanians occupied the whole of the ex-Austrian province of Bukovina, despite the fact only the southern half was majority Romanian. The northern half was majority Ukrainian, but again, it was all very mixed. Again, you need some reason, some power that will scare the Romanians off. Or you need it as a plot device, you can still give Bukovina to the Romanians and make it a join of tension with Ukraine.

probibly give it to Romania, methinks, spoils of war, etc, but Romania doesnt get Bessarabia? there is always the plebicide option, the lazy AH authers option

 

[Namor]

BTW, we haven't even talked about how to get ethnic Ukrainian lands back from Czslk, Hungary, or Romania.

Or Russia... Kuban would be nice, although Don area would probably be pushing it too far...

 

[Namor]

Eastern Ukraine was Russian speaking even before Stalin and Hitler.

No it wasn't... in Eastern Ukraine, Kuban and parts of Don region, dialect of Ukrainian with heavy Russian influence was spoken by most population... Only nobles and civil service in the cities spoke Russian... However, those regions, even though they spoke Ukrainian, historically been loyal to Russian government, even helpins supress other Ukrainian rebellions in the west...

 

[Namor]

OTL the Romanians occupied the whole of the ex-Austrian province of Bukovina, despite the fact only the southern half was majority Romanian. The northern half was majority Ukrainian, but again, it was all very mixed. Again, you need some reason, some power that will scare the Romanians off. Or you need it as a plot device, you can still give Bukovina to the Romanians and make it a join of tension with Ukraine.

And than when Ukraine goes to war against Romanie they occupy ALL of Bukovina, Moldava and Bessarabia...
Count me in with those who like strong Ukraine...

 

[Sir Isaac Brock]

I am in favour of the 'British PM Changing his opinion' POD. a large scale general feeling change is a bit to far-fetched methinks, when compared with Lloyd George waking up one morning and thinking, you know, those Ukrainians arents such bad chaps after all

Okay then you need to decide what action he can take that would help the Ukrainians the most. He could lean on the Poles to not go around seizing land, he could officially recognise the Ukrainian People's Republic when it declares independence, he can spend British surplus supplies to the new government, and he can spend British / Dominion military personnel to Kiev to aid the new government.

I was wondering the fate of the Belarusians earlier. Perhaps what i have on my latest map? they dont get free, but divided between Poland and the USSR

It's harsh but consistent with OTL. However there WILL be a Belarusian SSR. The Soviets created that and the UkSSR so that they would be able to a) allay minority fears of Russian dominance, and b) use those ethnic groups as the basis of irredentist claims against Poland. If there are as many Belarusians in Poland as your Map suggests (more than OTL), then the Soviets will want to use them.

then the Ukraine could be a major headache for Russia/Germany and good potential ally for Poland. perhaps some sort of allience between Poland and the Ukraine in the between the war period, or an expanded Little entente? I think WW2 may be changed rather drasticly...

You have to settle the Uk-Pol border in a peacefully and amicable way before they can be close allies.
But you are certainly right about a huge change. Imagine a USSR that has lost much of its oil, coal, and factories, and it's richest agricultural land. The Soviets without Ukraine will be dramatically weaker.

probibly give it to Romania, methinks, spoils of war, etc, but Romania doesnt get Bessarabia? there is always the plebicide option, the lazy AH authers option

If Ukraine is distracted fighting the Bolsheviks, and dealing with the Poles, they will probably have to accept whatever borders the Romanians claim for the moment (unless they have near-ABS level of outside help). But eventually that will have to change.

 

[Scarecrow]

Okay then you need to decide what action he can take that would help the Ukrainians the most. He could lean on the Poles to not go around seizing land, he could officially recognise the Ukrainian People's Republic when it declares independence, he can spend British surplus supplies to the new government, and he can spend British / Dominion military personnel to Kiev to aid the new government.

Yes! got our POD

Can he do all of them? I wonder though, if the British forces used in the intervention force in the Russian Civil War could be used to prop up the Ukrainian government. the French did occupy Odessa for a while, but if the British forces dont go to Murmansk and are sent to the Ukraine instead, that could change the RCW. Or the British could just deploy two different sets of troops, although Im not sure if that would be feasable...

You have to settle the Uk-Pol border in a peacefully and amicable way before they can be close allies.

I am inclined to think that Wilson will push for a plebicide. another thought about Wilson, perhaps to get American aid the Ukrainian government could try to comply with the 14 points, and promise some kind of democracy?

But you are certainly right about a huge change. Imagine a USSR that has lost much of its oil, coal, and factories, and it's richest agricultural land. The Soviets without Ukraine will be dramatically weaker.

well, it was called the Breadbasket of Russia or somesuch notion...
just reading the wikipedia article on the Ukrainian Peoples Republic, and I must say the Hetmandate looks interesting. maybe if it isnt overthrown? they seemed to do some interesting things, especialy Pavlo Skoropadsky he carnt do anything to the Ukraine that is worse then Stalin

If Ukraine is distracted fighting the Bolsheviks, and dealing with the Poles, they will probably have to accept whatever borders the Romanians claim for the moment (unless they have near-ABS level of outside help). But eventually that will have to change.

thats what I was thinking to. Skoropadsky is just going to have to bite the bullet on that one, but it will raise its head again later, say the 1920's. the Ukrainians could claim that the Romanians are illegaliy occupying good, honest Ukrainian land...

btw, here is the flag that they will most likely use

 

[Scarecrow]

Yevhen Konovalets is an interesting character, and no doubt useful, perhaps as between the wars leader of the Ukraine?

 

[Max Sinister]

I could somehow imagine that an independent Ukraine would see strong immigration from Russia who're looking for work & bread, and the Ukrainians may prefer the Russian immigration compared to immigration from Southern Europe, Turkey or elsewhere... this could lead to a point when there live so many Russians in the Ukraine, that people will start to talk about reunification. Of course, that might be a reason for Ukrainian politicians to cut immigration from Russia, fearing dominance.

 

[Wendell]

hmm. something like this?

EDIT: Woops! that Polish Ukraine border is wrong

ah, thats better

Yes, like that. I could see an alternate M-R Pact based largely on river borders, assumng those factors stayed the same...

 

[Scarecrow]

I could somehow imagine that an independent Ukraine would see strong immigration from Russia who're looking for work & bread, and the Ukrainians may prefer the Russian immigration compared to immigration from Southern Europe, Turkey or elsewhere... this could lead to a point when there live so many Russians in the Ukraine, that people will start to talk about reunification. Of course, that might be a reason for Ukrainian politicians to cut immigration from Russia, fearing dominance.

eh? doesnt realy apply to the time period, methinks, esp. since Russia is communist...

 

[Sir Isaac Brock]

Yevhen Konovalets is an interesting character, and no doubt useful, perhaps as between the wars leader of the Ukraine?

Yes, but that mean you're throwing Ukraine way over to the Right side of the spectrum. The OUN were quite found of Il Duce and der Fuehrer. Of course there's nothing unusual about that in the 1920s, but it changes the dynamic in E. Europe. And the question is can he get along with the likes of Jozef Pilsudki's Poland?

I could somehow imagine that an independent Ukraine would see strong immigration from Russia who're looking for work & bread, and the Ukrainians may prefer the Russian immigration compared to immigration from Southern Europe, Turkey or elsewhere... this could lead to a point when there live so many Russians in the Ukraine, that people will start to talk about reunification. Of course, that might be a reason for Ukrainian politicians to cut immigration from Russia, fearing dominance.

That would depend on the new government’s views on things like official languages, citizenship, and education. I would think Ukraine would also become a popular stopping-over point for Russian émigrés on their way to the West, as well. There could also be some Diaspora Ukrainians returning home, but I think that would be very few. I think it would be more likely that in the first few unstable, impoverished years, Ukraine will experience net emigration.

eh? doesnt realy apply to the time period, methinks, esp. since Russia is communist...

Yes they have to be able to get out of their prison – I mean country, or it’s a moot point. OF course during the Civil War, the Bolshies won’t be strong enough to stop them, but after that…

Yes! got our POD

Can he do all of them? I wonder though, if the British forces used in the intervention force in the Russian Civil War could be used to prop up the Ukrainian government. the French did occupy Odessa for a while, but if the British forces dont go to Murmansk and are sent to the Ukraine instead, that could change the RCW. Or the British could just deploy two different sets of troops, although Im not sure if that would be feasable...

The British are pretty exhausted at this point, so let’s not have them bite off more than they can chew. They should still to Ukraine, and Ukraine alone, if we want it to work.

I am inclined to think that Wilson will push for a plebicide. another thought about Wilson, perhaps to get American aid the Ukrainian government could try to comply with the 14 points, and promise some kind of democracy?

That goes without saying.


More latter…

 

[Scarecrow]

Yes, but that mean you're throwing Ukraine way over to the Right side of the spectrum. The OUN were quite found of Il Duce and der Fuehrer. Of course there's nothing unusual about that in the 1920s, but it changes the dynamic in E. Europe. And the question is can he get along with the likes of Jozef Pilsudki's Poland?

perhaps a bit of realpolitiking with the rise of Hitler?

Although, a fascist Ukraine... fuck! thats a brilliant idea! I didnt say the timeline had to be all nice and pretty...

That would depend on the new government’s views on things like official languages, citizenship, and education. I would think Ukraine would also become a popular stopping-over point for Russian émigrés on their way to the West, as well. There could also be some Diaspora Ukrainians returning home, but I think that would be very few. I think it would be more likely that in the first few unstable, impoverished years, Ukraine will experience net emigration.

intresting. were there cases of white Russian diaspora in Poland between the wars?


Yes they have to be able to get out of their prison – I mean country, or it’s a moot point. OF course during the Civil War, the Bolshies won’t be strong enough to stop them, but after that…

The British are pretty exhausted at this point, so let’s not have them bite off more than they can chew. They should still to Ukraine, and Ukraine alone, if we want it to work.

yeah. someone else will have to take Murmansk...or it can fall into Soviet hands. dont know how much of a change a little bit more muntions would do for the Reds in the RCW though...

 

[Andrei]

I think Romania and Ukraine could have been allies ( "Russian" Ukraine , not "Austrian Ukraine" ).

The Romanian goverment was afraid of the Bolsheviks and would have liked to have a buffer between Romania and the USSR. IIRC the government was willing to send 10 divisions to help the Ukrainians fight the Bolsheviks if France had supported this action.
Indeed Northern Bukovina had a larger Ukrainian population , so that area could have been given to the Ukrainian state by the great powers.

There were few Ukrainians in Besserebia , but there were some Romanians east of the Dneister , in Ukraine. Another option to solve the disputes between the two countries could have been a popoulation exchange , with the Ukrainians from Northern Bukovina going to Ukraine and the Romanians from Transnistria being moved to Romania.

 

[Sir Isaac Brock]

perhaps a bit of realpolitiking with the rise of Hitler?

Since Germany doesn't share a border with Ukraine, but both countries would share the same potential enemies (Poland, Russia) it would be a natural fit. However, if we do that, we're reversing the previous pro-British stance we had established before.

Although, a fascist Ukraine... fuck! thats a brilliant idea! I didnt say the timeline had to be all nice and pretty...

Would be especially bad news for the minorities. At this time L'viv had the largst Jewish population in Europe, Kiev had many too. Will be bad, bad, news for them

intresting. were there cases of white Russian diaspora in Poland between the wars?

No idea.

 

[Scarecrow]

Since Germany doesn't share a border with Ukraine, but both countries would share the same potential enemies (Poland, Russia) it would be a natural fit. However, if we do that, we're reversing the previous pro-British stance we had established before.

But how important would British support be past the mid-1920's, once the Ukraine starts to get up on its feet

Would be especially bad news for the minorities. At this time L'viv had the largst Jewish population in Europe, Kiev had many too. Will be bad, bad, news for them


No idea.

Its twisting my heart this decisian, fascist Ukraine or good Ukraine? 'good' Ukraine is probibly going to be squished by nazi germany and the USSR, while a 'bad' Ukraine may lend towards a far worse world war. perhaps even a Nazi victory, esp. if the Ukraine sends resources to nazi germany...

Personaly, i want a 'good' Ukraine, but a bad Ukraine is more fun to write

 

[Verence]

well?

after the Treaty of Brest-Livosk (yay! ) what kind of POD would lead to a free Ukraine that is powerful enough to resist Soviet invasion?

perhaps if the Polish-Ukrainian war had been won by the Ukrainians

so what would be the effects of an independent, non-Communist Ukraine be?

Bearing in mind what a chaotic state Ukraine was in during the Russian Civil War, I would think that very soon after Ukraine became independent there would be a Ukrainian Civil War, maybe something between ethnic Ukrainians, ethnic Russian and Cossacks???

 

[Sir Isaac Brock]

But how important would British support be past the mid-1920's, once the Ukraine starts to get up on its feet

You could be right. It certainly didn't help Czechoslovakia, did it?

Its twisting my heart this decisian, fascist Ukraine or good Ukraine? 'good' Ukraine is probibly going to be squished by nazi germany and the USSR, while a 'bad' Ukraine may lend towards a far worse world war. perhaps even a Nazi victory, esp. if the Ukraine sends resources to nazi germany...

First you have to get Hitler to agree to work with these Slavic sub-humans he's advocated enlslaving in the past. Tough to do. But if you think it's a good story, well then by all means...

Personaly, i want a 'good' Ukraine, but a bad Ukraine is more fun to write

Whatever floats your boat.

 

[oberdada]

Would Trotzky immigrate into an independent Ukraine in 1928?
Would the Ukrainian Government let him live there?

 

[Scarecrow]

You could be right. It certainly didn't help Czechoslovakia, did it?


First you have to get Hitler to agree to work with these Slavic sub-humans he's advocated enlslaving in the past. Tough to do. But if you think it's a good story, well then by all means...


Whatever floats your boat.

Thats true. I have an idea of Hitler "using" the Ukraine as a springboard into Russia and as a source of food and raw materials. If Russia can bounce back (may take a bit longer ITTL, I have decided that an Independent Ukraine isnt going to lead to a victorious Nazi Germany with out MAJOR buttiflies) without the Ukraine IOTL, then no problems ITTL, right?
If Russia has to deploy troops to occupy, not liberate, then maybe the western allies could get a larger area of Germany?

Although I wouldnt like to be living in Soviet occupied Ukraine in the aftermath of WW2
would it be directly assimilated into the USSR, or suffer the fate of Poland, all of western Europe, and just loose land and become a satilite?

 

[Max Sinister]

Fascist isn't 100% nationalsocialist. Mussolini's Italy was a horrible dictature, but he didn't build gas chambers. (That's admittedly the only good thing you can say about him.)