Independent Ukraine after WW1?

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well?

after the Treaty of Brest-Livosk (yay!:D ) what kind of POD would lead to a free Ukraine that is powerful enough to resist Soviet invasion?

perhaps if the Polish-Ukrainian war had been won by the Ukrainians:p

so what would be the effects of an independent, non-Communist Ukraine be? :D
 
Scarecrow said:
well?

after the Treaty of Brest-Livosk (yay!:D ) what kind of POD would lead to a free Ukraine that is powerful enough to resist Soviet invasion?

perhaps if the Polish-Ukrainian war had been won by the Ukrainians:p

so what would be the effects of an independent, non-Communist Ukraine be? :D
Try as I might I can't seem to make this work in my head without a Central Powers victory (or better peace at least) in WWI. The the question is how do you avoid it being a German satelite state?
 
Sir Isaac Brock said:
Try as I might I can't seem to make this work in my head without a Central Powers victory (or better peace at least) in WWI. The the question is how do you avoid it being a German satelite state?
well in any CP victory, then satelite state status is guarenteed:D

I was hoping for an independent Ukraine after the CP loose, as per OTL:cool:
 
Well this is a Russian civil war thing and not a WW1 thing I'd say.
You'd need that to go a different way...

Part of the problem with the Ukraine is that the greens by their very nature were anarchists. Maybe if they stayed closer to their nationalist routes and you get increased western support through the black sea the Ukraine could be held whilst the rest of the country falls to the reds.
 
what if other countrys sent more troops to help the white russian and secured the ukriane and let it break away from red russia
 
Interesting. I have an initial feeling that the Ukraine will end up a member of the Little Entente and share a fate similar to other Central European countries both pre-WWII and post.
 
David S Poepoe said:
Interesting. I have an initial feeling that the Ukraine will end up a member of the Little Entente and share a fate similar to other Central European countries both pre-WWII and post.

Without Stalin's horrors, Ukraine's population would be 7 million larger. That should count for something.
 
In Wikipedia in the article about Polish-Ukrainian war at the end is written:

"On April 21, 1920, Józef Piłsudski and Semen Petlura signed a Polish-Ukrainian alliance, in which Poland promised the Ukrainian People's Republic the military help in the Kiev Offensive against the Red Army in exchange for the acceptance of Polish-Ukrainian border on the river Zbrucz."

A possible interesting POD instead a ukraine victory in the war against the polish could be that this alliance between poles and ukraines manages to defeat the Red Army (could be because the allies potencies send more military help to Poland and this get some more great victories against the soviets in West Ukraine than in OTL and having far more success in desstroying more entire red units).

So at the end the Soviet Union makes peace because the same that happens in OTL after his defeat in Warsaw he needs his troops to attack the whites but in this case is not Warsaw is Kiev the city that they could not conquest and after some failed attempts they sign the peace with Poland and Western Ukraine.
 
No US entry. Germans do better in 1918 taking Amiens but still peter out long before they reach Paris. Entente counteroffensive in late 1918 make some progress but the war enters 1919 and everyone is weary. Negotations start and then there is an armistice.

The resulting peace modifies instead of abrogates Brest Litovsk. Ukraine is to be neutral and not a German satellite. Same for Poland and Lithuania.
 
Originally posted by Max Sinister
Could they become a leading power in Eastern Europe, in an alliance both against Germany and Russia?

It would be interesting, although I have a lot of doubts about both having the sufficent force to equilibrate the power of Germany and Russia. it would be interesting if Poland and Ukraine joint in TTL the Little Entente, apart of this the "Cordon Sanitaire" against Soviet Union would be far more effective.

It is very possible with adequate circunstances that France that in OTL shows his weakness during the 1930´s and his dependence diplomatically of Great Britain, in TTL with a Little Entente reinforced by Poland and Ukraine could have a far more strong position against Germany.

Naturally this could also provoke a sooner Non Agression-pact between Germany and Soviet Union (because Ukraine and Poland not would be great fans of the Soviet Union -and it seems that in TTL Stalin would be also the leader-)

So It is possible that in TTL if Hitler gets the power could have far more difficulties in making his politics of annexations.
 
The Little Entente was an alliance formed by Romania , Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia to counter Hungarian revanchism , it was not aimed at the Soviet Union.

Poland did have an alliance with Estonia and Latvia against the SU ( but not with Lithuania , because the Poles annexed Vilnius ) and a similar alliance with Romania.

In order to have a more effective "Cordon Sanitaire" , the POD should solve the issues between the Eastern European countries , especially between Poland and Czechoslovakia and Ukraine.
Also , it would have been better if all the Eastern European Alliances ( The Balkan Alliance , The Little Entente , The Polish-Romanian alliance )had been merged into one , aimed at any aggresion .
 
I'm sure WW2 as we know it would be drastically altered with a independant Ukraine- the effects this would have on the Russian civil war....Quite huge.
The bolcheviks may not come out on top, if they do it may not be to the extent of OTL, by the time we get far enough down the line to where Stalin would take over I'd think things would be sufficiently altered so he wouldn't.
 
Originally posted by Andrei
The Little Entente was an alliance formed by Romania , Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia to counter Hungarian revanchism , it was not aimed at the Soviet Union.

You are correct althoug respect to Little Entente I was thinking in the future in referrence to Germany not Soviet Union, I was thinking in 1938 and the Czech crisis, with a stronger little Entente and a France more strong because this stronger Little Entente it could be possible to save Czechoslovakia.

Also altough initially it was aimed against Hungary, France see it as an ally to make possible a two front war against Germany if this country in the future seeks revanchist politics, and France makes close bounds with Triple Entente so the alliance that in the beginning was only aimed to confront Hungary develops later in an ally of France against possible agressive politics of Germany.

Also the poles never enter the alliance but makes some collaborations with it because this evolution as ally of France.

From encyclopedia quote in Infoplease:

"The overall aims of the Little Entente and the Balkan Entente, taken together, were the preservation of the territorial status quo, established by the treaties of Versailles, Saint-Germain, Trianon, and Neuilly, against the efforts of Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Bulgaria to have those treaties revised; the prevention of Anschluss, or union, between Germany and Austria; and the encouragement of closer economic ties among its members. The Little Entente was successful in its aims until the rise of Hitler in Germany, when French prestige was gradually displaced by German economic penetration and political pressure. It began to break apart in 1936 and was effectively ended when Czechoslovakia lost its membership by the formation of the Munich Pact (1938)."

Originally posted by Andrei
In order to have a more effective "Cordon Sanitaire" , the POD should solve the issues between the Eastern European countries , especially between Poland and Czechoslovakia and Ukraine.

Yes it is a great problem altough the POD that I say could erase some problems between Kiev and Warsaw because the poles help the ukrainians to defend against the soviets (although surely the irredentism of Ukraine poles will continue) the principal problem will be the zone of Teschen between czechs and poles (and during the 1938 crisis the poles more than help czechs prefer to joint the vultures when the division of Czechoslovakia occupying the zone of Teschen).

Originally posted by Andrei
In order to have a more effective "Cordon Sanitaire" , the POD should solve the issues between the Eastern European countries , especially between Poland and Czechoslovakia and Ukraine.
Also , it would have been better if all the Eastern European Alliances ( The Balkan Alliance , The Little Entente , The Polish-Romanian alliance )had been merged into one , aimed at any aggresion .

It would be the ideal, no doubt that the principal problem is Czechoslovakia and poles because although no doubt of the problems between Ukraine and Poland they both have a common enemy the Soviet Union and Ukraine knows that needs Poland to survive against the Soviet Union (and if this Soviet Union is as in OTL is leaded by Stalin more motives will have Ukraine to strengthen his alliance with Poland despite the problems with ukraine population in Poland -although some measures could be made by Poland to give ukraines poles some degree of autonomy as a gesture to his ally Ukraine-).

Respect Czechoslovakia and Poland the principal problem is the zone of Teschen, in this case possibily this problem could be made less important if the pressures of France and the rise of Hitler Germany makes clear two both nations that they have a common enemy: Germany, in this case some butterflies could happen in a Europe with Ukraine independent, in this case the poles could not accuse so hard than in OTL the czechs of occupying a polish region because the poles are making the same with Ukraine.

Apart of this could be Czechoslovakia could made some gestures as made an special autonomy status to Teschen.

No doubt that the diplomatic affairs would be very interesting in TTL and is France surely the nation that have the capacity to show all these nations the dangers about Soviet Union and France and solve these territorial problems to make the Little Entente and other alliances work far better than in OTL.
 
Hmm. I suppose if Ukraine became a Tsarist stronghold during the Russian Civil War, they could hold out long enough to establish the Empire of the Ukraine.
 
David S Poepoe said:
Interesting. I have an initial feeling that the Ukraine will end up a member of the Little Entente and share a fate similar to other Central European countries both pre-WWII and post.
Actually, Ukraine might survive, and be given part(s) of Poland, until an alternate Barbarossa, or so. Ukraine ends up a Soviet Republic after the war due to FDR's affinity for (or ignorance of) Moscow.
 
Evil Opus said:
Hmm. I suppose if Ukraine became a Tsarist stronghold during the Russian Civil War, they could hold out long enough to establish the Empire of the Ukraine.
Or, a Cossack "Prussia" of sorts, with the "Kievan Rus" restored?
 
Hm, if Hitler's rise isn't butterflied away by that... maybe he decides that it's enough for Germany if they "just" conquer Poland, the Baltic states and the Ukraine and then defend the new status quo? Of course, France and the Soviet Union still won't like it...
 
Max Sinister said:
Hm, if Hitler's rise isn't butterflied away by that... maybe he decides that it's enough for Germany if they "just" conquer Poland, the Baltic states and the Ukraine and then defend the new status quo? Of course, France and the Soviet Union still won't like it...
Actually, maybe the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact will be applied to dividing an independent Ukraine, leading to the indefinite postponement of Barbarossa...
 
Wendell said:
Actually, maybe the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact will be applied to dividing an independent Ukraine, leading to the indefinite postponement of Barbarossa...
or perhaps the Soviets get the Ukraine along with thier half of poland, and the Germans take the Baltic states?

Would German-Poland even share a border with the Ukraine? the Baltic/Ukraine thing may be a better deal, and would lead towards some interesting Barbarossa...
 
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