Independent South Mozambique?

Hi AHers,

So I don't know a great deal about Mozambique, but I was wondering:

-How big the white population of Mozambique was during the Portuguese colonial war of the 1970s?
-Could the remnant European population, fearful of majority-rule upon the withdrawal of the Portuguese army, announce their own state in the southern part of the country, which I understand had a higher proportion of whites than north of the Zambezi?

Thanks in advance for the input!
 
It's entirely possible, but not sure how realistic at that point. The ethnic Portuguese, with the help of the homeland Portugal army could strike a deal with the African rebels, giving the rebels full control of the majority of the land while the European segment kept the Maputo region. While some Europeans did live outside the Maputo region, common sense would suggest they would all quickly move to Maputo. Maybe a large scale population exchange would take place. But if Portugal wanted to keep a permanent slice of Africa, that's how it would be done, they would never be able to have all of Mozambique
 
I remember reading somewhere that there were proposals to partition Mozambique into three states - Mozambique, Zambezia, and Portuguese Mozambique (south of the Zambezi river) between 1970 and 1975.

The first state was supposed to include Niassa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado provinces, and be given to FRELIMO. Zambezia would include Zambieza province, and maybe Tete, and would go to RENAMO or COREMO. The Portuguese would have held everything else (including Lourenco Marques, the most important port). The white population was 259,300 (according to the map below).

EDIT 1 - found a map with White population percentages for Mozambique in 1970. The map came from Viriato

EDIT 2 - Found the thread it came from, link is here

Mozambique White Population 1970.gif
 
Hi AHers,

So I don't know a great deal about Mozambique, but I was wondering:

-How big the white population of Mozambique was during the Portuguese colonial war of the 1970s?
-Could the remnant European population, fearful of majority-rule upon the withdrawal of the Portuguese army, announce their own state in the southern part of the country, which I understand had a higher proportion of whites than north of the Zambezi?

Thanks in advance for the input!

Such a scenario is quite possible.

IOTL, a number Portuguese settlers in Lourenço Marques tried to set up a minority ruled state (they seized a radio station and flew a new flag). There was some speculation that South Africa and Rhodesia would invade Mozambique to prop up the Portuguese Settlers. Prime Minister Vorster ultimately wasn't interested in the idea (if you had Prime Minister Verwoerd not be assassinated in 1966, he seems like the kind of guy who would have intervened). Businessman Jorge Jardim would probably be the likely leader of such a state.

mz%5E1974.gif


In terms of population, Southern Mozambique in 1975 would have the following breakdown:

Population 4 million (7% White, 1% Mestiço, 0.5% Asian)

If we assume that the Whites, Asians, and Mestiço's from the remainder of Mozambique relocate to this state, it would be something like this:

Population 4.2 Million (9.5% White 1.5% Mestiço 0.5% Asian)

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It's entirely possible, but not sure how realistic at that point. The ethnic Portuguese, with the help of the homeland Portugal army could strike a deal with the African rebels, giving the rebels full control of the majority of the land while the European segment kept the Maputo region. While some Europeans did live outside the Maputo region, common sense would suggest they would all quickly move to Maputo. Maybe a large scale population exchange would take place. But if Portugal wanted to keep a permanent slice of Africa, that's how it would be done, they would never be able to have all of Mozambique

If such a population exchange occurred, you could probably get Lourenço Marques to be plurality White, though I can't imagine this would be attempted unless the Portuguese settlers got really desperate. Large scale population movements would be incredibly disruptive to the economy (and leave many important assets, such as the Cahorra Bassa Dam) within the African state.

Incidentally, I do wonder if such a population exchange might have worked in Angola - whereby Luanda, Bengo, Zaire, and Cabinda Provinces (perhaps with Uige and Cuanza Norte) become a majority or plurality White petrol state.
 
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There were some talks (not by government officials) that Mozambique should be partitioned with the area north of the Zambezi being a separate country. Below is a breakdown of the territory's population by race in 1960.

In 1960 the territory's four southern districts had 2,368,518 Africans or 37% of the total African population.
Manica & Sofala 751,491
Gaza 664,566
Inhambane 577,495
Lourenco Marques 374,966

In 1960 the territory had a total 97,268 whites, of these 77,185 or 80% were located in the four Southern Districts:
White Population in 1960:
Lourenco Marques 48,182
Manica & Sofala 19,668
Gaza 7,422
Inhambane 1,913
Total: 77,185

67% of the Mixed-Race Mestico Population lived in the Southern districts
Lourenco Marques 9,631
Manica & Sofala 5,150
Inhambane 3,565
Gaza 2,676
Total: 21,022

73% of the Indian Population lived in the South
Lourenco Marques 7,592
Manica & Sofala 3,734
Inhambane 752
Gaza 483
Total: 12,561

99% of the Chinese population lived in the South, overwhelmingly in Beira and Lourenco Marques
Chinese Population in 1960
Manica & Sofala 1,027
Lourenco Marques 992
Inhambane 47
Gaza 3
Total: 2,069

In the North the White Population was as follows:
Mocambique (Nampula District) 8,074
Zambezia 7,436
Tete 2,169
Cabo Delgado 1,482
Niassa 922
Total: 20,083

The Mestico Population
Zambezia 4,337
Mocambique 2,593
Tete 1,806
Cabo Delgado 1,458
Niassa 249
Total: 10,443

The Indian Population
Mocambique 2,179
Zambezia 1,325
Cabo Delgado 683
Tete 356
Niassa 139
Total: 4,682

The Chinese Population
Cabo Delgado 10
Mocambique 8
Zambezia 8
Tete 3
Niassa 0
Total: 29


When FRELIMO began its guerilla operations against the Portuguese in September 1964 they were launched from Tanzania with operations in Niassa and Cabo Delgado districts. These regions were the furthest from white settlement, making the regions easy to infiltrate. These regions had few roads or infrastructure of any kind. To counter FRELIMO, the Portuguese began paying attention to this neglected region, building roads, airfields, railways and purposely settling thousands of peasants from the Azores and Madeira in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Nacala to Vila Cabral railway was completed in 1969 and it was hoped that this would stimulate development in the region. The growing investment and spending in the region attracted a large number of Portuguese settlers, particularly poorer ones as many went into business selling supplies to the Portuguese military. Nampula in particular experienced a boom in population as it surpassed Beira in population by 1970.

In 1970 the Portuguese military launched its largest offensive ever, known as Operation Gordion Knot. It was largely successful in removing FRELIMO from Niassa and Cabo Delgado, however their forces were only temporarily weakened as they slipped through Zambia and began operations in Tete district. Here their primary objective was the Cabora Bassa dam on the Zambezi River. FRELIMO failed to thwart the completion of the dam, however they did manage to tie down Portuguese troops in the region. In addition, troops were needed in the North to prevent FRELIMO incursions from Tanzania.

Those who proposed dividing Mozambique did so because it would keep the vital Beira and Lourenco Marques rail corridors along with the principal European settlements. Most of the industry was also located in these regions, keep in mind that the country had Africa's fourth largest industrial output in 1974. In addition, it would be protected by Rhodesia and South Africa to the West. The hostile frontier would be far more limited.

By 1974, there were around 250-300,000 Europeans in Mozambique, perhaps 100,000 Mesticos and 35,000 Indians and Chinese out of a total population of 9 million. In the four districts South of the Zambezi there were some 3.2 million Africans in 1970. If you include the Tete district south of the Zambezi to include the strategic Cabora Bassa generators, there would be a population of 4 million by 1974.
 
Can't see any possibility of Frelimo agreeing to this in 1974, so the only possibility of survival would be South African support, which they were not going to get. SA had enough trouble with world opinion; they were pressing the Rhodesians to come to a settlement. An extra burden like this they would not want.
 
I think we would need an earlier POD, given the chaotic Portuguese decolonisation process.

Apparently Jan Smuts was keen to purchase the southern half of Mozambique from the Portuguese after World War I.

Perhaps this happens and Southern Mozambique is incorporated in South Africa. Maybe we see greater white immigration into Southern Mozambique.

This probably butterflies away the 1948 National Party win, but perhaps the whites in Southern Mozambique agitate for independence. Depending on what is happening in South Africa, maybe a looser form of government is implemented, rather than the pretty centrist control that South Africa had in OTL.
 
Yay!

I'm actually really happy not only that this thread now has some replies, but that they were so detailed and interesting, it's great and I'll definitely use the info gained here!
 
-Could the remnant European population, fearful of majority-rule upon the withdrawal of the Portuguese army, announce their own state in the southern part of the country, which I understand had a higher proportion of whites than north of the Zambezi?
AFAIUI, white Africa would only be successful via black labour for the farms.
 
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