The 1837 revolts last longer and are bloodier, The US stays out, but many Americans unofficially get involved.
In the end "Quebec" still looses the war but not without gains.
The Commonwealth of Canada is established, basically independent in all but name. This Canada is rather different than its otl version. They are given basically the area of otls Quebec, and even granted control over its own immigration policy.
Separated from the rest of British North America early on Canada grows as something of a Francophone wedge between the Eastern Maritimes and Western British North America.
The Dominion of Canada never forms here, rather we see the establishmnt of four nations out of what we know to be one. The Dominion of Victoria, (Canada everything west of otls Quebec, to British Columbia) The Commonwealth of Canada, and the Maritime Commonwealth. *here pod the name commonwealth is used more in favor of the term Dominion
Americas neighbors to the north are orderly friendly states, with varying degrees of shared heritage all based on the principal of responsible government. Except Canada, the most independent minded of them all, it officially cut all links with the crown in 1973, and established a republican form of government. The first to do so, but Victoria has toyed with the idea of doing the same. British Columbia and the Maritime Commonwealth are fiercely proud of their heritage and are the most vocal about their shared link to the crown.