Independent Poznan

I see no reason why would Prussians cede Posen/Poznań? They were wiling to left it in Russian sphere IOTL but in exchange they demanded whole Saxony. They would not give up Posen for nothing.
 
Why isn't the subject of thread, what happens afterward is.

I suspect that Poznan will develop in different manner from OTL, while the Grand Duchy in OTL was dominated by large estates and agricultural production. I think a competent monarch, who only control Poznan, he will likely push a major land reform, this will serve to create a major rural middle class, beside that he will develop industry in the territory, Poznan should have a lot of lignite, so we likely see that fuel the local industrialisation. So we will likely see a increased urbanisation, while the agricultural output goes from basic agricultural products (cereal) to higher value ones (milk, meat, sugar etc.). Poznan will be closely oriented toward Prussia, which will be its main trading partner. We will likely see Poznan serving as centre of the Polish national movement, which will likely have a pro-Prussian view of the extent of the Polish state.
 
I suspect that Poznan will develop in different manner from OTL, while the Grand Duchy in OTL was dominated by large estates and agricultural production. I think a competent monarch, who only control Poznan, he will likely push a major land reform, this will serve to create a major rural middle class, beside that he will develop industry in the territory, Poznan should have a lot of lignite, so we likely see that fuel the local industrialisation. So we will likely see a increased urbanisation, while the agricultural output goes from basic agricultural products (cereal) to higher value ones (milk, meat, sugar etc.). Poznan will be closely oriented toward Prussia, which will be its main trading partner. We will likely see Poznan serving as centre of the Polish national movement, which will likely have a pro-Prussian view of the extent of the Polish state.
Assuming this Poznan does well, if/when Poland is reunited (which would be expected should Russian lose a war against the Prussians at some point) could there be a internal dispute about the capital? Or is Warsaw too entrenched as the polish capital at this point?
 
Assuming this Poznan does well, if/when Poland is reunited (which would be expected should Russian lose a war against the Prussians at some point) could there be a internal dispute about the capital? Or is Warsaw too entrenched as the polish capital at this point?

Well I expect that the capital will be Warsaw, but Poznan will keep some special status. Beside that I also expect German having some kind of Finland style co-official position, because of the large German minority in Poznan (ironic the Jewish population will likely be the main benefactors of this policy outside Poznan). The Poznan (and later Polish) Lutheran Church will likely also enjoy a similar status as the Bavarian Lutheran Church did in OTL.
 
Well I expect that the capital will be Warsaw, but Poznan will keep some special status. Beside that I also expect German having some kind of Finland style co-official position, because of the large German minority in Poznan (ironic the Jewish population will likely be the main benefactors of this policy outside Poznan). The Poznan (and later Polish) Lutheran Church will likely also enjoy a similar status as the Bavarian Lutheran Church did in OTL.
I wonder if that would be a one way street or if poles that do still reside inside of Prussia would have a similar kindness extended to them.
Now the major way this effects politics is it makes it a lot harder for Russia and Prussia to be friends and has the potential to become the flash point for a conflict between the two, do you have any idea when this might be most likely to occur, when such a conflict would most favour Russia and visa versa
 
I wonder if that would be a one way street or if poles that do still reside inside of Prussia would have a similar kindness extended to them.
Now the major way this effects politics is it makes it a lot harder for Russia and Prussia to be friends and has the potential to become the flash point for a conflict between the two, do you have any idea when this might be most likely to occur, when such a conflict would most favour Russia and visa versa

It have nothing to do with kindness, and everything to do with pure practicality, Poznan need the Prussians as protectors and as export market, and the local Germans serves to develop the Grand Duchy. As for Poland it need continued Prussian support and access to the Prussian markets. Prussia on the other hand need little from Poland, so in best case they will ignore the Prussian Poles, in worst case we will see a assimilation policy. I lean toward the former, but with Posen outside Prussia, I expect the Poles of the corridor to assimilate into a Kashubian identity, while the Silesian Poles will trade a Polish ethnic identity for a class-based identity, where they identifies as part of the German Labour Movement more than as Poles.
 
It have nothing to do with kindness, and everything to do with pure practicality, Poznan need the Prussians as protectors and as export market, and the local Germans serves to develop the Grand Duchy. As for Poland it need continued Prussian support and access to the Prussian markets. Prussia on the other hand need little from Poland, so in best case they will ignore the Prussian Poles, in worst case we will see a assimilation policy. I lean toward the former, but with Posen outside Prussia, I expect the Poles of the corridor to assimilate into a Kashubian identity, while the Silesian Poles will trade a Polish ethnic identity for a class-based identity, where they identifies as part of the German Labour Movement more than as Poles.
Makes sense, could the Kashubians end up much like Masurians? Adamantly opposed to germanizatiom but also loyal to the Prussian state?
How do you think this polish state would effect the various polish uprisings of the time period?
 
Makes sense, could the Kashubians end up much like Masurians? Adamantly opposed to germanizatiom but also loyal to the Prussian state?
How do you think this polish state would effect the various polish uprisings of the time period?
The Masurian pretty much assimilated in the 19th century, there was nothing weird about them keeping their language for so long, as they was isolated from the German Prussians by the swamps, but they had a clear identity as non-Poles since the Reformation, and had been loyal subject of their dukes. As such it was natural that they assimilated into a German identity. The Kashubian on the other hand was Catholics and had survived thanks to a high degree of isolation. I think they will keep a distinct identity, and as long as Germany treat them as they always have, I expect them to simply accept status quo.

As for Polish revolts, I expect unless Poznan get Prussian support, theGrand Duchy will keep low profile, while also opening their border for refugees when the Russian beat the revolt down.
 
The Masurian pretty much assimilated in the 19th century, there was nothing weird about them keeping their language for so long, as they was isolated from the German Prussians by the swamps, but they had a clear identity as non-Poles since the Reformation, and had been loyal subject of their dukes. As such it was natural that they assimilated into a German identity. The Kashubian on the other hand was Catholics and had survived thanks to a high degree of isolation. I think they will keep a distinct identity, and as long as Germany treat them as they always have, I expect them to simply accept status quo.

As for Polish revolts, I expect unless Poznan get Prussian support, theGrand Duchy will keep low profile, while also opening their border for refugees when the Russian beat the revolt down.
So it's likely that as long as poznan keeps it's head down events are likely to go similar to otl?
 
So it's likely that as long as poznan keeps it's head down events are likely to go similar to otl?

It depend, Prussia without having to worry about it own Polish minority, may be more likely to support the Poles. The Poles will likely also have a pro-German attitude with less Poles living under Prussian overlordship.
 
None of those are very significant in terms of population
Eh, Upper Silesia and West Prussia had Polish majorities. A large portion of the Polish population of Prussia lived in Poznan but it wasn't quite half. Wiki says that, in 1819, about 2/3 of a million lived in West Prussia (52% of the ~630,000) and Upper Silesia (67.2% of the ~560,000) alone. Pretty significant, seeing as the total population of Prussia was about 10 million (6% of the population lost is pretty harsh) at the time.
 
Eh, Upper Silesia and West Prussia had Polish majorities. A large portion of the Polish population of Prussia lived in Poznan but it wasn't quite half. Wiki says that, in 1819, about 2/3 of a million lived in West Prussia (52% of the ~630,000) and Upper Silesia (67.2% of the ~560,000) alone. Pretty significant, seeing as the total population of Prussia was about 10 million (6% of the population lost is pretty harsh) at the time.
West Prussia had a German majority overall I believe
 
West Prussia had a German majority overall I believe
https://books.google.pl/books?id=31DMAJgQV28C&pg=PA42#v=onepage&q&f=true

"Die Prov. Westpreußen: 630,077 für 1819, Deutsche 290,000, Polen 327,800"

Might want to find another source to double check but cursory glance regarding Prussia's easternly parts say West Prussia and Upper Silesia had Polish majorities in 1819 (perhaps not later but this is Congress of Vienna era POD after all and 1819 demographic information seems more relevant than 1900 ones here).
 
https://books.google.pl/books?id=31DMAJgQV28C&pg=PA42#v=onepage&q&f=true

"Die Prov. Westpreußen: 630,077 für 1819, Deutsche 290,000, Polen 327,800"

Might want to find another source to double check but cursory glance regarding Prussia's easternly parts say West Prussia and Upper Silesia had Polish majorities in 1819 (perhaps not later but this is Congress of Vienna era POD after all and 1819 demographic information seems more relevant than 1900 ones here).
No, I'm sure your source is fine im probably just am thinking of 1900s but the congress of Vienna numbers probably arnt actually all that relevant, by the time poles are in a place to start raising a fuss about the areas they are probably even more germanized than otl since Prussia will have concentrated on them more.
 
No, I'm sure your source is fine im probably just am thinking of 1900s but the congress of Vienna numbers probably arnt actually all that relevant, by the time poles are in a place to start raising a fuss about the areas they are probably even more germanized than otl since Prussia will have concentrated on them more.
You sure? The Krakow Uprising took place in 1846, which is only 26 years after the source's date. Can't imagine 26 years is enough to Germanize the population thoroughly enough (plus, increasing germanization is just going to aggravate the situation earlier if done poorly or too extremely like Bismarck's Kulturkampf). It's over a million, even without Poznan, and getting 10% of the population to stop speaking their native language is a bit difficult in that short a span.

Aside from just Prussia, Poznan's going to be a center of that sort of nationalism and the Austrians and Russians will not be happy to let it stay that way while they have millions of Poles living in their borders (Galicia Lodomeria was about 1/8 of the Austro-Hungarian population, I believe, and Congress Poland had several millions in its borders). Having a Polish state extent in the 1800s is going to cause diplomatic friction and nationalistic conflict, one way or another. Mind you, Napoleon's actions and the Congress of Vienna more or less ensured that liberal and nationalistic tendencies would be suppressed and thus build up over the decades until they exploded in some fashion (Springtime of Nations). Even if the Prussians ones aren't too upset, the Austrian and Russian ones will be and a Polish state is definitely where they will be meeting.
 
You sure? The Krakow Uprising took place in 1846, which is only 26 years after the source's date. Can't imagine 26 years is enough to Germanize the population thoroughly enough (plus, increasing germanization is just going to aggravate the situation earlier if done poorly or too extremely like Bismarck's Kulturkampf). It's over a million, even without Poznan, and getting 10% of the population to stop speaking their native language is a bit difficult in that short a span.

Aside from just Prussia, Poznan's going to be a center of that sort of nationalism and the Austrians and Russians will not be happy to let it stay that way while they have millions of Poles living in their borders (Galicia Lodomeria was about 1/8 of the Austro-Hungarian population, I believe, and Congress Poland had several millions in its borders). Having a Polish state extent in the 1800s is going to cause diplomatic friction and nationalistic conflict, one way or another. Mind you, Napoleon's actions and the Congress of Vienna more or less ensured that liberal and nationalistic tendencies would be suppressed and thus build up over the decades until they exploded in some fashion (Springtime of Nations). Even if the Prussians ones aren't too upset, the Austrian and Russian ones will be and a Polish state is definitely where they will be meeting.
They won't need to germanize them that fast, any polish uprising that occurs in a Prussia that doesn't have Posen has 0 chance of success, The polish population centres are either 1 far apart or 2 loyal to the Prussian crown anyway, I doubt there even would be an uprising in their territory.

Yes the poznan duchy could well cause friction with Austria and Russia but that looks a lot worse on paper for Prussia than I think it would turn out to be the November uprising was already a handful for the Russians, if the poles suddenly have a major power as an ally in their conflict the poles are going to be that much harder to deal with, The Italians are also simmering away at the time and if the Austrians are engaged else where a certain king and an ambitious duke might not loose their nerves
 
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