Independent Poland with a Central Powers WWI Victory

Let me sketch you out a scenario.

Germany on the Western Front is able to defeat France after about 5 years of brutal trench warfare which cripples both countries.

In the East, a Brest-Litovsk happens and we see an Independent Baltic, Poland and Ukraine. The boundaries of Poland are same as OTL except no territory gained from Germany or Austria-Hungry. The reds are victorious in the Russian Civil War/Revolution and there isn't a Belarus.

Now, assume for the sake of argument that the boundaries of Poland remain fixed like this for a long time, no analogue WWII, no major invasion from Germany or the Soviet Union, no access to the sea. Plenty of minorities in the country, plenty of Poles outside of it, little industry.

Now, what would happen to Poland? How would it develop? Quite frankly I've no idea.
 
Under the right incentives (positive and negative), Austria-Hungary might be inclined to combine Galicia-Lodomeria with this Poland. A positive incentive could have been an archduke of Austria being elected as king of Poland.
 
Under the right incentives (positive and negative), Austria-Hungary might be inclined to combine Galicia-Lodomeria with this Poland. A positive incentive could have been an archduke of Austria being elected as king of Poland.
I disagree over it's likelihood.

But I am really interested in the scenario where the acquisition of Galicia-Lodomeria doesn't happen and there is not an Archduke as King. Principally because it is a scenario we don't discuss as much because everyone pretty much assumes what you did.
 
I believe Poznan would gradually become Posen, with the German Empire sponsoring Polish migration to independent Poland (what I believe would have the same bounduaries as Congress Poland OTL). Galicia-Lodomeria is an interesting question, as its wide size, multiethinic scenario (Jews and Ukranians), and strategical position would make possible a lot of different scenarios... I guess the "Galician question" would be one of the most tense problems of XX's Europe.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
It'd be a German finger puppet like everything else east of the Rhine would be in Europe in a CP victory. Economically, it has a good chance of being better off than OTL, if only because German companies while exploiting the resources, will be building infrastructure and schools so they can better, well, exploit them. Independence might be what they want, but it's arguable their economic condition would be far superior. It's not the prettiest picture, but I'd argue it'd turn out best for Poland this way. German rule will eventually loosen.
 
Poland still seems like it'd be small compared to the OTL Republic. Economically it'd still be dependent upon Mitteleuropa; I actually don't see it flourishing economically at all. The Junkers are going to want their agricultural estates and incomes protected against competition as they did before the war, despite agricultural prices probably falling throughout the twenties, we probably see some Wilhelmine form of the Osthilfe to pay out subsidies to bankrupt estates in Eastern Prussia.

Industrially, it's not going to be able to compete with the pseudo-Zaibatsu of Imperial Germany like Krupp, ect. Heavy Industry especially, considering many of Poland's major coal and oil deposits will ITTL still be in German and Austrian hands. The lack of a sea port will also be pretty harmful, thus Poland will probably only have Germany and possibly Austria as it's only trading partners, plus perhaps the other members of Mitteleuropa in the East. I don't see any positives where it's economy would be functional or anything more than a supplier to Germany, unless it develops some niche light industry that works to it's benefit and it can export abroad.

I don't see Austria giving up Galicia-Lodomeria. While an Archduke could be elected King of Poland, it seems likely that the Regency council established would be paralyzed over making a selection. If anything, it seems likely a member of the House of Wettin would be elected. I can't see the Habsburgs being too miffed, though: in Ukraine, the Germans probably support Pavlo Skoropadskyi and his Hetmanate. While he was pretty much a Slavophile and dedicated to a federation with Russia, when he sees the writing on the wall he would probably be willing to work with Central Powers.

He probably work quite well with the Archduke Wilhelm, or Vasyl Vyshyvanyi, whose father, Karl Stefan wanted his family to adopt a Polish identity to represent Polish interests in the Austrian Empire. Wilhelm sort of rebelled against that and was highly interested in Ukrainian culture, running away from the family estate and mingling amongst the common Ukrainians. At least in Galicia-Lodomeria, he was beloved by them and many considered him a potential candidate as King of the Ukraine, but that is a different subject entirely.
 
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Nietzsche

Banned
Poland still seems like it'd be small compared to the OTL Republic. Economically it'd still be dependent upon Mitteleuropa; I actually don't see it flourishing economically at all. The Junkers are going to want their agricultural estates and incomes protected against competition as they did before the war, despite agricultural prices probably falling throughout the twenties, we probably see some Wilhelmine form of the Osthilfe to pay out subsidies to bankrupt estates in Eastern Prussia.

Industrially, it's not going to be able to compete with the pseudo-Zaibatsu of Imperial Germany like Krupp, ect. Heavy Industry especially, considering many of Poland's major coal and oil deposits will ITTL still be in German and Austrian hands. The lack of a sea port will also be pretty harmful, thus Poland will probably only have Germany and possibly Austria as it's only trading partners, plus perhaps the other members of Mitteleuropa in the East. I don't see any positives where it's economy would be functional or anything more than a supplier to Germany, unless it develops some niche light industry that works to it's benefit and it can export abroad.

I don't see Austria giving up Galicia-Lodomeria. While an Archduke could be elected King of Poland, it seems likely that the Regency council established would be paralyzed over making a selection. If anything, it seems likely a member of the House of Wettin would be elected. I can't see the Habsburgs being too miffed, though: in Ukraine, the Germans probably support Pavlo Skoropadskyi and his Hetmanate. While he was pretty much a Slavophile and dedicated to a federation with Russia, when he sees the writing on the wall he would probably be willing to work with Central Powers.

He probably work quite well with the Archduke Wilhelm, or Vasyl Vyshyvanyi, whose father, Karl Stefan wanted his family to adopt a Polish identity to represent Polish interests in the Austrian Empire. Wilhelm sort of rebelled against that and was highly interested in Ukrainian culture, running away from the family estate and mingling amongst the common Ukrainians. At least in Galicia-Lodomeria, he was beloved by them and many considered him a potential candidate as King of the Ukraine, but that is a different subject entirely.
I think you're severely over-estimating Junker power...in a victory early in the game. Which I believe is what the man proposed. Your points are valid for a late CP win, I will not argue them(atleast no the meat of it).

I'm an admitted Prussophile, this is well known, and it colours my visions of the future of Poland under German guidence. It could be horrible, but I like to think that people tend to be reasonable, and won't exploint them to the point of poverty. Not in the long run, anyway. Excesses will certainly occur, but I genuinely think this is one of Poland's best chances at being a secondary power in Europe, especially if we can get a more liberal German parliament/chancellor who may cede parts of the Posen province. Not the whole thing. Posen itself is too German as a city, But some border era? Not out of the question. As for the Austrians...their voice will be small at best. Germany was the dominant power in the CPs before Austria started having problems, Austria post-war will be propped up entirely by German arms. They aren't getting a significant amount of Ukraine, and I don't see why they wouldn't put a Hohenzollern on the Romanian throne.What I think people are forgetting is that while German will recieve the lion's share of Mittleeuropa, there's so much wealth to exploit the natives are bound to get a boon from it. Not much of one, but you could very well see a sort of Autobahn system in MittelEuropa, or at the least a very advanced network of trains.

Hardships will occur in the beggining, but I honestly think that this would be best for Poland. Congress Poland plus some select parts of Galicia are all it deserves, they're the only areas with a Polish majority. It won't be as grand as the second republic, but it also won't be run by that madman, tyrant, and general scum of the earth Pillsudski. The Intermarium would be no more than Poland lite Nazi Germany. Trying to Polonifie the the conquered peoples and getting rid of the rabble. He was no better a person than Mussolini, and in Pilsduski's more unhinged moments, Hitler-lite.

Slow evolution is always preferable to Przestrzeń Zyciowa

Again there will be explotation under German rule, but it won't be some proto-nazi nightmare. It won't be perfect for a while, but with the advances in educated spurned on by the likes of Simiens, a Polish intelligentsia will grow leaps and bounds.

I'm not trying to paint this as rainbows and roses coming out the ass of Kaiser Bill, but I think the picture of the Junk class is sorely biased. They weren't all evil. They wanted concessions, but nothing -too- outrageous in most cases.
 
I think you're severely over-estimating Junker power...in a victory early in the game. Which I believe is what the man proposed. Your points are valid for a late CP win, I will not argue them(atleast no the meat of it).

I'm an admitted Prussophile, this is well known, and it colours my visions of the future of Poland under German guidence. It could be horrible, but I like to think that people tend to be reasonable, and won't exploint them to the point of poverty. Not in the long run, anyway. Excesses will certainly occur, but I genuinely think this is one of Poland's best chances at being a secondary power in Europe, especially if we can get a more liberal German parliament/chancellor who may cede parts of the Posen province. Not the whole thing. Posen itself is too German as a city, But some border era? Not out of the question. As for the Austrians...their voice will be small at best. Germany was the dominant power in the CPs before Austria started having problems, Austria post-war will be propped up entirely by German arms. They aren't getting a significant amount of Ukraine, and I don't see why they wouldn't put a Hohenzollern on the Romanian throne.What I think people are forgetting is that while German will recieve the lion's share of Mittleeuropa, there's so much wealth to exploit the natives are bound to get a boon from it. Not much of one, but you could very well see a sort of Autobahn system in MittelEuropa, or at the least a very advanced network of trains.

Hardships will occur in the beggining, but I honestly think that this would be best for Poland. Congress Poland plus some select parts of Galicia are all it deserves, they're the only areas with a Polish majority. It won't be as grand as the second republic, but it also won't be run by that madman, tyrant, and general scum of the earth Pillsudski. The Intermarium would be no more than Poland lite Nazi Germany. Trying to Polonifie the the conquered peoples and getting rid of the rabble. He was no better a person than Mussolini, and in Pilsduski's more unhinged moments, Hitler-lite.

Slow evolution is always preferable to Przestrzeń Zyciowa

Again there will be explotation under German rule, but it won't be some proto-nazi nightmare. It won't be perfect for a while, but with the advances in educated spurned on by the likes of Simiens, a Polish intelligentsia will grow leaps and bounds.

I'm not trying to paint this as rainbows and roses coming out the ass of Kaiser Bill, but I think the picture of the Junk class is sorely biased. They weren't all evil. They wanted concessions, but nothing -too- outrageous in most cases.

The OP in question proposes a German victory after a five year front in the West... that really doesn't seem like a quick victory IMO, but to each his own.

The Kingdom of Poland (that is, Congress Poland) would definitely fare better as part of Mitteleuropa compared to being part of Russia. At least the Russification policies will cease and the Sejm will actually be able to meet again once the war is over, so Poland will certainly have a semi-democratic government (I say semi merely because any constitution will surely have influences from the Constitution of the Empire -- although considering the war against France ends after five years, the German Constitution will probably get some amendments to curb the excessive powers of the executive branch).

I never said that Poland would suffer as part of Mitteleuropa, merely that Poland in it's borders minus the lands held by Germany and Austria and quite small... and lacks some of the key zones that could be economically prosperous. Aside from Poland, there's also the other portions in the East included in Brest Litovsk-- I'm assuming that means the Baltics, Lithuania, Belarus, and Ukraine. I don't believe I ever said the Junkers were evil either, but they certainly played a great role in Wilhelmine Germany whether you want to admit it or not. They definitely had political clout, given their great opposition to Caprivi's free trade policies against their own protectionist policies. Especially if Germany has a friendly Ukraine on it's side, a practical breadbasket on it's own, the German agrarian class is going to want some guarantees that they're not going to be undercut by cheaper foodstuffs coming out the east.

I also really cannot see Germany ceding border areas in Posen to Poland, even if the Empire manages to democratize to an extent. Even that small piece of land still leaves Poland quite small, and not to mention still leaves Poles within the German Empire in areas like Danzig. If they cede portions of Posen province, what is to stop Poland from demanding other border areas where Poles are in the majority?

And yes, Austria is a junior member of the Central Powers Alliance, that much is obvious. The OP doesn't specify what happens to the Habsburg empire -- does it collapse? Does it survive and shaky ground and undergo change into a federation -- or perhaps more likely, a confederation where Emperor Karl remains head of state and there remains a common army and navy, but the respective kingdoms, Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia, Galicia-Lodomeria have more extensive autonomy? If anything, the inclusion of Galicia-Lodomeria into Poland would be way more useful than some border territories in Posen. Austria would even probably be willing to let it go if Poland elects Karl Stefan as their King, as he essentially raised his family to identify with Poland, spoke Polish, and even had connections to the Raditzwills IIRC. A Poland with that territory would have a chance to be a good junior partner to the German Empire. But not in the rump form that's just the Congress Kingdom and some pieces of Posen and a few bits in the east.

I'm hardly painting a picture of the Junker class... I'm not sure where you're getting that from. You said they wanted concessions... the exact same thing I said. They're going to want assurances that their products won't be undercut by cheap eastern foodstuffs. That hardly sounds evil or outrageous to me.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Poland was quite an enigma for the Germans, they had promised Pilsudski some form of independence, but keeping that promise would be hard. But on the other hand, the last thing the Germans wanted was more Poles inside their borders, so annexing Russian Poland was impossible. But creating a Polish state would be the same as creating a future enemy. All in all the Germans had no idea what to do with Poland. Neither Berlin nor Vienna would want to secede territory, so really what can be discussed as "Poland" is the Russian parts of the Polish territory.

A solution could be permanent German- Austrian occupation of Poland without any annexations, but neither a proclamation of a Polish State, making Poland a territory that really isn't a part of any nation. Wouldn't work in the long term though.
 
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