It is certainly possible that Japan attacks Malay and the Dutch East Indies in 1941 after a similar embargo of sales of oil etc. The Japanese are slightly better off if they can still buy chrome from the Philippines but not significantly. However, they are not threatened by forces on the Philippines across their communications. If they are sensible

, they will thus not attack America in the hope that there will be no American declaration of war. The problem is that we would like to understand Japanese decision making in 1941 in order to predict their probable plan. This is difficult! I gave my very limited understanding in a previous thread and if I repeat it here hopefully someone can explain all.
The two official top commanders of the Navy were Admiral Shimada, the Navy Minister, and
Admiral Nagano, the Chief of Staff. Fukudome Shigeru suggested that Shimada did not want to attack America (The Japanese Navy in World War II, ed. David C. Evans, page 6). Parshall and Tully state on page 24 of
"Shattered Sword" that Nagano did not want to attack America but they do not give a source. I found descriptions of Nagano's answers to Hirohito in Toland's The Rising Sun: The Decline and Fall of the Japanese Empire.
Unfortunately, Nagano seems to have been able to state apparently inconsistent ideas within five minutes. I think that it is possible that Nagano wanted to attack the Philippines but not Pearl Harbor (because of military rather than political risk) but Parshall and Tully clearly disagree. Moving to the Army, they proposed ignoring the Philippines and attacking only via Malay but were persuaded by "the Navy" (Akira Iriye references Daihonei rikugunbu 2: 410,418 but I don't read Japonese

). Thus you could argue that everyone important wanted to avoid attacking America, which only leaves the question why did they!
Rear-Adm. Maeda Minoru, head of General Staff Intelligence Bureau, believed that operations in the East Indies would inevitably lead to war with the USA (interview, 19 June 1962, Boeicho Senshibu Archives). His argument was that they were the same race. However, Maeda was only a Rear-Admiral.
The conclusion that America would fight seems to have been reached in a war game involving the Combined Fleet, who's commander was Admiral Yamamoto, in early 1941 but I do not know who played America (Maeda?). Yamamoto fell in love with the Pearl Harbor idea and we know that he threatened to resign if
the Pearl Harbor plan was not accepted.
Would Nagano have accepted Yamamoto's resignation if the Philippines had not threatened his communications? I have little idea!
p.s. I assumed in my initial post that the Philippines had been independent since shortly after the war of 1898.