Independent Phillipines in WW2

You can pick either Independence in the early 1900's [ Spain grants independence pre Spanish/American or Philippines defeats US 1900~1901]
Or US Scheules Philippines Independence in 1930's~1940, instead of OTL's 1945.

?What affect would a Independent Philippines have on US Planning pre WW2?
 
Are you aware that an independent Philippines was in the middle of being set up during WW2? The US government was in the middle of creating the organization for an independent Philippines, such as a Philippine defense force, when the Japanese invaded.
 
Even before that the Phillipines were already nominally independent. Except for the US military being there they basicly ran their own affairs.

And yes, the Phillipine Constabulary did ah... assist the US during the Japanese invasion.
 
Are you aware that an independent Philippines was in the middle of being set up during WW2?
Wekk not during the War, IIRC the formal independce ceromony was scheduled for July 4 1945.
And the Japanese set up a Formally independent Government during the war.

I'm talking about the Formal Ceremony being before 1941.

Or whe never took it in 1900.
 
You can pick either Independence in the early 1900's [ Spain grants independence pre Spanish/American or Philippines defeats US 1900~1901]
Or US Scheules Philippines Independence in 1930's~1940, instead of OTL's 1945.

?What affect would a Independent Philippines have on US Planning pre WW2?

On the low end of the spectrum, little changes, as the Phillipines are still a de facto US protectorate come the war, so policy sees little difference.

However, let's say that the Islands are independent between 1930 and 1940. They have a decent (american advised and run) military, but some American troops on the ground still. Let's also assume that Pearl Harbour and the japanese offensive still happen as in OTL, for simplicity.

Anyways, the Phillipines still fall roughly as they did in our timeline. I dont see how their independence can meaningfully change that outcome. However, when the US rebuilds in the South Pacific and begins driving north, there will be a different set of priorities. Since the US has less interests in the Phillipenes (and likely MacArthur is gone or doesn't have a vested interest in retaking them), so the US can relegate the Central Pacific thrust to a sideshow, and focus more on Island Hopping through micronesia and the Marianas. There are offensives to roll back the Japanese all along the extent of the Co-Prosperity sphere, but the Allies are generally content to let Japanese troops in the Phillipenes wither on the vine, with landings coming once the war's outcome has been decided once and for all by the presence of American bombers hitting Japanese cities from Saipan.

All in all, a probably shorter Pacific theatre, less Allied Casualties as they do not have to lose troops retaking the Phillipenes and teaching the Japanese how to fight amphibious landings.
 

Markus

Banned
However, let's say that the Islands are independent between 1930 and 1940. They have a decent (american advised and run) military, but some American troops on the ground still.

Anyways, the Phillipines still fall roughly as they did in our timeline. I dont see how their independence can meaningfully change that outcome.

It changes everything. In OTL the Philippine military was largely existing on paper. They had a decent number of virtually untrained and very poorly equipped troops, like one BAR per company, whole battalions that never even visited a shooting range, WW1 mortars with ammo that had a 75% dud rate, artillerymen who never even saw a gun being fired and so on.

A mere three to six month more time would have fixed much of that making it impossible for the Japanese to take the Philippines with the miniature invasion force they send in OTL.
 
It changes everything. In OTL the Philippine military was largely existing on paper. They had a decent number of virtually untrained and very poorly equipped troops, like one BAR per company, whole battalions that never even visited a shooting range, WW1 mortars with ammo that had a 75% dud rate, artillerymen who never even saw a gun being fired and so on.

A mere three to six month more time would have fixed much of that making it impossible for the Japanese to take the Philippines with the miniature invasion force they send in OTL.
MacArthur was also an advocate of giving Japan a brown water navy: PT boats with torpedoes, rather than cruisers, to give the Philippines a defensive porcupine.
 
You can pick either Independence in the early 1900's [ Spain grants independence pre Spanish/American or Philippines defeats US 1900~1901]
Or US Scheules Philippines Independence in 1930's~1940, instead of OTL's 1945.

?What affect would a Independent Philippines have on US Planning pre WW2?

What WW2? Without US forces based in the Philippines, there would be no attack on Pearl Harbor. Without US control of the Philippines earlier, there would be much less tension between Japan and the USA because the USA would not have anything to protect/worry about.

However, there might be tension between the Philippines and the Dutch if the Philippines supported Asian independence movements. The Japanese might have supported the Philippines while the British might support the Dutch.
 

Markus

Banned
?Any Ideas for the other possibility -- Independent in 1900, without any [continuing] US presence?


What Mostlyharmless said. I´m assuming the US is still pissed off because of China and does not like Japanese expansion in SEA on general principles and one way or another goes to war with Japan. With no US bases anywhere near the are Japan was intered in, they´ll probably stick to their original war plans and try to lure the US Fleet into their defensive perimeter.
 
It is certainly possible that Japan attacks Malay and the Dutch East Indies in 1941 after a similar embargo of sales of oil etc. The Japanese are slightly better off if they can still buy chrome from the Philippines but not significantly. However, they are not threatened by forces on the Philippines across their communications. If they are sensible :D, they will thus not attack America in the hope that there will be no American declaration of war. The problem is that we would like to understand Japanese decision making in 1941 in order to predict their probable plan. This is difficult! I gave my very limited understanding in a previous thread and if I repeat it here hopefully someone can explain all.

The two official top commanders of the Navy were Admiral Shimada, the Navy Minister, and Admiral Nagano, the Chief of Staff. Fukudome Shigeru suggested that Shimada did not want to attack America (The Japanese Navy in World War II, ed. David C. Evans, page 6). Parshall and Tully state on page 24 of "Shattered Sword" that Nagano did not want to attack America but they do not give a source. I found descriptions of Nagano's answers to Hirohito in Toland's The Rising Sun: The Decline and Fall of the Japanese Empire. Unfortunately, Nagano seems to have been able to state apparently inconsistent ideas within five minutes. I think that it is possible that Nagano wanted to attack the Philippines but not Pearl Harbor (because of military rather than political risk) but Parshall and Tully clearly disagree. Moving to the Army, they proposed ignoring the Philippines and attacking only via Malay but were persuaded by "the Navy" (Akira Iriye references Daihonei rikugunbu 2: 410,418 but I don't read Japonese :(). Thus you could argue that everyone important wanted to avoid attacking America, which only leaves the question why did they!

Rear-Adm. Maeda Minoru, head of General Staff Intelligence Bureau, believed that operations in the East Indies would inevitably lead to war with the USA (interview, 19 June 1962, Boeicho Senshibu Archives). His argument was that they were the same race. However, Maeda was only a Rear-Admiral. The conclusion that America would fight seems to have been reached in a war game involving the Combined Fleet, who's commander was Admiral Yamamoto, in early 1941 but I do not know who played America (Maeda?). Yamamoto fell in love with the Pearl Harbor idea and we know that he threatened to resign if the Pearl Harbor plan was not accepted.

Would Nagano have accepted
Yamamoto's resignation if the Philippines had not threatened his communications? I have little idea!

p.s. I assumed in my initial post that the Philippines had been independent since shortly after the war of 1898.
 
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