Independent Philippines Before World War II

FDR was against the colonization of the Philippines and had agreed to give it independence on July 4, 1946. What if he did so earlier, before WWII had happened?

Would there still have been a Pacific War?
 

Markus

Banned
FDR was against the colonization of the Philippines and had agreed to give it independence on July 4, 1946. What if he did so earlier, before WWII had happened?

Would there still have been a Pacific War?

The Philippines sit on top of the sea line of communication between Japan and the territorries in South East Asia Japan intended to conquer. The Philippines will be invaded unless they make an alliance with Japan OR have their Army in shape by 1941. There had been calls for raising strong Philippine forces as early as the 1920´s, precisely to counter the threat from Japan.

If these proposals had been accepted, Japan would have had to come up with a vastly stonger invasion force than IOTL to succeed.
 
Indeed, an independent Philippines with a strong military - possibly augmented with U.S. forces a'la modern day South Korea - could go a long way towards screwing up Japan's invasion plans, especially since Japan's OTL invasion was done on a shoestring as it was. Like Markus said, at the very least the forces allocated against the Phillippines would have to be considerably bigger, to the detriment of other operations. This could give more breathing space to Malaya and Singapore, among others.
 
The Japanese cannot afford to have the Philippines in anyone's hands but their own, simply because it sits upon their supply lines.
 
But why would they attack the U.S. if the islands standing in their way (the Philippines) are not politically related to the U.S.?

Are you presuming that an independent Philippines and the USA would not have established some sort of defense treaty? Also, why would the existance of an independent Philippines translate into a "we can ignore the American military" among the members of the Imperial High Command?
 
Are you presuming that an independent Philippines and the USA would not have established some sort of defense treaty?

At this point in time, the USA hasn't made a military alliance since the one made with France in the 1700s. Would an isolationist Congress really be willing to promise to defend the Philippines now that it is no longer an American territory?

In OTL, there was a defense agreement in 1951, but that is due to the Cold War and the USA was willing to get into military alliances since they just joined NATO. We are talking about isolationist pre-WWII America here.

Also, why would the existance of an independent Philippines translate into a "we can ignore the American military" among the members of the Imperial High Command?

Because America won't be defending it and can therefore be taken with American interference. The American public would just be thinking "thank God the Philippines aren't our problem anymore" rather than wanting to do anything.

Japan can get the the Dutch East Indies without passing American territory.
 
The US will certainly maintain military presence in the Philippines after independence. While US was prepared to grant it independence, it was none the less dependent on Philippino bases to protect its economic interests in East Asia. US didn't have military bases in South Korea, Japan and Okinawa at the time, the Philippines was all there was. Japan would perforce have to invade just as it did in OTL.

Besides it was important for America to create a Christian, English speaking democracy in Asia. That was something Americans were quite proud of and wanted to see more of in Asia, not less.

The only thing a pre-war independent Philippines would mean is the Japanese excuse of invading the place to liberate it from America would ring even more hollow than it was.
 
Not to mention that the Japanese were afraid of the US intervening when they attacked the DEI and Malaysia, regardless of the lack of formal ties. That's why they attacked the Philippines and Peal Harbor (and Wake and Guam)--to keep us out while they got their hands on the good stuff. I find it hard to believe that an independent Philippines (which will almost certainly retain a lot of links to its former overlord at the very least in terms of business) will change that much.
 
The US will certainly maintain military presence in the Philippines after independence. While US was prepared to grant it independence, it was none the less dependent on Philippino bases to protect its economic interests in East Asia. US didn't have military bases in South Korea, Japan and Okinawa at the time, the Philippines was all there was. Japan would perforce have to invade just as it did in OTL.

Besides it was important for America to create a Christian, English speaking democracy in Asia. That was something Americans were quite proud of and wanted to see more of in Asia, not less.

The only thing a pre-war independent Philippines would mean is the Japanese excuse of invading the place to liberate it from America would ring even more hollow than it was.

Yeah, but if it becomes independent before the war, wouldn't Spanish still be the main language? (Modern Pilipino is actually a recent phenomenon)
 

Cook

Banned
Indeed, an independent Philippines with a strong military - possibly augmented with U.S. forces a'la modern day South Korea...

Who would be paying for this strong independent Philippines Army?
A Philippines Republic in the 1930s could hardly be expected to be overflowing with excess cash.

Since the Army of the Philippines Commonwealth that Macarthur was a Field Marshal of was still being built up when war broke out I’d say it would be more realistic to expect a fully independent Philippines to be no better off militarily and that the P.I. independence would be seen as a chance for the US to relocate forces away from the Islands, weakening their defence further.

 
FDR was against the colonization of the Philippines and had agreed to give it independence on July 4, 1946. What if he did so earlier, before WWII had happened?

Would there still have been a Pacific War?

Resistance have nothing to do with independence. Pacific war will still happen regardless if Philippines participated or not.

Philippines must Industrialized and Militarized. Philippines must be lead and these leaders must make the right decisions regardless if it was the Americans, The OTL defunct Philippine Malolos Republic or any other super power in control of Philippines before WW2.

For those who are misinformed, the Philippine commonwealth government under President Quezon did offer Japan and U.S.A by 1941 neutrality of the Philippines by both USA and Japan withdrawing all their military presence from the Philippines. Japan agreed on such terms, USA did not.

As admitted by the Japanese, they only invaded the Philippines because of American military presence. I would understand why the USA would reject such an offer since there are a lot of military and political consequences of such an agreement. As USA would look like an abusive Philippine colonial master who was freed by the Japanese plus considering that USA will lose bases in the Philippines as well as delaying Japan by putting 300,000 Japan man army during its occupation.

Just imagine where those 300,000 Japanese army would go if it weren't pinned down in the Philippines. Guadacanal? Australia? Hawaii? California?
 
What a necro! But while we're on the topic, might I add that the most expedient POD would be having the US not be a total dick when it comes to negotiating the post-Spanish-American War settlements with Aguinaldo? Maybe the Anti-Imperialist League gets on McKinley's case and he fulfills pre-war promises of complete Filipino independence once the Spanish are dealt with.
 
tThere were bills in Congress giving the Phillipines independence before the Tydings McDufffy Act. IIRC Cooldge vetoed one. sSo an earler independent Phillipines is very possible . mMaybe get rid of the transition period. I would imagine that the US would make a deal with the independent Phillipines to keep its military bases. jJapan has to attack these bases so they attack Pearl Harbor and Guam. The big question is since Paul V McNutt can't be High Commissioner. to the Phillipines what job does he get in 1937.
 
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