Independent Okinawa after WWII

Let's say that because of FDR/Chiang diplomatic buffoonery after V-J Day, Okinawa and the Ryukyus are made independent of Japan. How does it then develop? What strategic role could it have played in the Pacific during the Cold War?
 
Maybe it will be viewed as mean-spirited for the U.S. to break up Japan, or maybe it will be readily accepted as just a fact of life?
 
It's very possible, actually - but if the U.S. wants it to happen, the price will be having to greatly reduce its military footprint in Okinawa, and greatly increase the political autonomy during the postwar occupation.

Butterflying away the Korean War - and its economic transformation of Japan (which makes Japan more desirable to reintegrate with) - will also help a lot.

Why? Here's a good read on this topic.
 
The islands would likely be under the same form of independence like the Mariana islands. With them being a commonwealth of the United States
 
I don't know... Okinawa had been part of Japan for centuries... And Okinawa was pretty much Japanese.

Okinawa was part of independent Ryukyuan Kingdom some centuries. And I think that Japan conquered Ryukyu on 19th century.
 
Okinawa was part of independent Ryukyuan Kingdom some centuries. And I think that Japan conquered Ryukyu on 19th century.

Okinawa was only absorbed during the Meiji period, yes. Prior, it had the dubious distinction of a being a dual vassal of the Qing and the Satsuma domain. In effect, it was independent.
 
Let's say a Republic of the Ryukyus is established. The motivation is so the U.S. could essentially have military bases indefinitely, dealing with a less powerful government than Japan, and also to punish that country for WWII (especially on behalf of the native Okinawans, what with the terrible war they waged on behalf of Imperial Japan). Shō Hiroshi and members of the previous Ryukyuan royal family return to Okinawa. Economically it still of course develops strong ties with Japan, which are codified through special agreement diplomacy. It also has good relations with Nationalist China.

Wonder what would happen next?
 
Love this topic - in some ways, an independent Ryukyu is my personal equivalent of "Cool Airships!" :)

It's very possible, actually - but if the U.S. wants it to happen, the price will be having to greatly reduce its military footprint in Okinawa, and greatly increase the political autonomy during the postwar occupation.

Indeed.

One question is if the Tokaras and Amamis get given to Kagoshima in 53? That will depend on exactly when the Ryukyus get their independence (that date will almost certainly be earlier than OTL), but is much less likely the earlier it happens. If they do, it'll be nice little sticking point...

Butterflying away the Korean War - and its economic transformation of Japan (which makes Japan more desirable to reintegrate with) - will also help a lot.

Why? Here's a good read on this topic.

Yep. Good find, BTW.

Butterflying the Korean War will have many major effects on both the Ryukyus and Japan. It almost certainly means actually keeping Artcle 9 in effect longer and butterflying the JSDF, possibly out of existence. It will also mean slowing down the Miracle. The economic effects on the Ryukyus are going to be less clear. Long term, the US bases have arguably held back the economy. Without as heavy a US baseing footprint, there will certainly
be less of the social ill's associated with being what largely amounts to a giant R&R station for US forces. And, OTL, Okinawa was of strategic import for the Vietnam War, but won't be ITTL if there even is a Vietnam War (unlikely, but possible) or some other equivalent.


Well, while Okinawans speak a Japonic language (Ryukyuan languages), they are still distinct from the Japanese, historically and culturally.

I love the linguistic can of worms here - how many languages are there in the Ryukyuan dialect continuum? UNESCO recognizes 6. Ethnologue lists 11. I recall another source (that I can't seem to lay a hand on now) saying that it was 4.

The cultural butterflys will be interesting. Assuming a decreased US military presence, there's less American influence on foodways - less likely to have SPAM be important and no takoraisu. Orion will be a much stronger brand of brewery.

I expect that an interesting relationship develops with the US - something along the lines of an exotic Pacific Island setting friendly to the US, but not a colony like the Phillipines or Hawaii.

Teahouse of the August Moon may not be made, or will be very different. I kind of like the idea of having a contrasting story to Japanese War Bride and Sayonara, instead of a satire of the American occupation of Japan. Maybe something more akin to Diamond Head. I could see a whole genre of films set in Okinawa a la a more exotic Hawaii.

There will also be big impacts of Japanese culture. Lots of the big pop stars of the 90s and 2000s are Okinawan, for example.

Hmmm... I'm sure I can think of more stuff...
 
I dunno if something as major as butterflying away the Korean War is necessary. The status of Okinawa could be something that changes because of Allied pique, it was on the historical list of territories that FDR weirdly offered Chiang. Instead of something quite so fanciful as that, they instead decouple the islands from Japan.

I'm very curious as to how the U.S. and the Ryukyus perceived each other, especially since the Battle of Okinawa was so fierce and bloody that it was one of the reasons why the a-bomb was used instead of an attempted land invasion. I wonder if that would color how the islands are treated in the postwar, even as an independent state. Maybe the Allies view Okinawa, like Taiwan, as a victim of Japanese imperialism and brainwashing, and instead of blaming the locals for the war, decide to throw off Japanese influence. Maybe the State Department allocates aid for "re-Ryukyuanification" cultural programs that would allow the new republic to study its past and reclaim native cultural aspects that was suppressed since the Meiji takeover.

I'm also curious how eventually Ryukyu would relate to China. The Okinawans and Taiwanese might find some shared experiences as places both previously ruled by Imperial Japan, and with cultures that are different from their respective mainland origins, and as allies in the Cold War.
 
Let's say a Republic of the Ryukyus is established. The motivation is so the U.S. could essentially have military bases indefinitely, dealing with a less powerful government than Japan, and also to punish that country for WWII (especially on behalf of the native Okinawans, what with the terrible war they waged on behalf of Imperial Japan).
The problem with this is that it being a part of Japan actually makes it easier for the US to maintain large military bases on Okinawa. If Okinawa was independent then whilst small and potentially less powerful they also won't be carrying any guilt over WWII, the opposition to such a large American presence will also make up a very large percentage of the country's population. As part of Japan however the Okinawan population make up just over one percent of the national population so the Japanese government are perfectly happy to have the US bases located well out of the way and distant from the mainland so can merrily ignore the locals attitudes.
 
Having worked with a woman whose Grandmother and mother came from Okinawa I had her tell me some stories about the island during the second World War. The people were attempting to hide from the bombardment and the Japanese military. The Japanese military was brutal to the population. Two of her mothers brothers who were only children were taken by the Japanese army to fight the Americans. They were brutally killed by the Japanese Army.
 
Alright, well what if the U.S. just decides to make the Ryukyus independent as a punitive measure against Japan and to make the Nationalist Chinese happy. And I feel like the Battle of Okinawa should be relevant somehow, maybe the sheer atrocities against civilians there influence the U.S. policy for shaping the postwar, maybe viewing the place as an exploited and colonized territory. So instead of military bases on Okinawa, the U.S. has some sort of embassy for a development program there, instead, with more bases in Japan proper instead?

At any rate, I don't think an independent Republic of the Ryukyus (or to piss off the Japanese even further, a revived Empire of the Ryukyus or Ryukyu Kingdom) would alter the Korean War by much. But it could shape East Asian politics from the Cold War and onwards.
 
I really can't see a US decision to make the islands independent would have any real impact on the Korean war beyond what it did in our time line. What the was is going to do is result in the rearming of Japan.
 
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