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It seems to me that given the density and complexity of the conquered societies in Mesoamerica, given a less competent Spanish crown an ambitious Spanish governor might be able to break away, and the wealth from the gold mines hire them any number of mercenaries from Europe (that could get over, anyway). The Viceroy in Mexico was able to control a continent and globe-spanning empire, after all. But my knowledge of the immediate post-conquest period is sadly lacking. Is this plausible? What's the earliest possible divergence point?
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