Independent Korea

Ok, so I asked this before and it got buried under everything else. What could have allowed for the Empire of Korea to survive into the 20th or maybe even the 21st century? What would the effects be? Would independence be possible even with a Japanese victory against Russia in 1905?
 
Korea successfully modernizing at the same time as Japan?
It would be interesting if it happened, and Korea and Japan became roughly equal powers in the region; would they unite in an alliance against the West, or violently fight each other for regional dominance? Certainly wouldn't be good news for China.
 
The later seems more likely to me. I believe Korea's beef with Japan goes back further than Japan' imperial expansion and their spheres of interest will likely overlap quite a bit, although on the other hand Korea's interests I would guess would be in Manchuria and they would obviously be more of a land power than Japan was, so if Japan mostly looks south their interests wouldn't overlap as much, and they might see each other as plausible allies against China or whichever European power has the strongest interests in the region (France out of Indochina? Germany gets the Philippines and becomes a strategic rival to the two East Asian powers?).
 
You would have to open Korea up earlier, and by a power without the means to colonize them; France, possibly, or the US? Both of them sent unsuccessful expeditions to Korea. This gives Korea some time to build up and modernize, maybe take some chunks out of China.

Korea seems like they would be in a more secure position than Japan to be a Great Power, given their substantial natural resources and lack of vulnerability to naval blockade.
 
You would have to open Korea up earlier, and by a power without the means to colonize them; France, possibly, or the US? Both of them sent unsuccessful expeditions to Korea. This gives Korea some time to build up and modernize, maybe take some chunks out of China.

Korea seems like they would be in a more secure position than Japan to be a Great Power, given their substantial natural resources and lack of vulnerability to naval blockade.

Do you think they would have to compete with Japan to be a great power? Or would the two be able to tolerate each other (or *gasp* work together)?
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
May I ask what scenario would make this possible?

And wouldn't Britain also have interests in the Far East? Or even the Netherlands?

A Hohenzollern nearly got on the Spanish throne OTL prior to the Franco-Prussian War but the French kicked up too big a stink about it. They might sell to Germany (or at least have a development lease with Germany) under those circumstances or if Spain just doesn't want to suffer the humiliation of losing it in a war to Japan or America.

You would have to open Korea up earlier, and by a power without the means to colonize them; France, possibly, or the US? Both of them sent unsuccessful expeditions to Korea. This gives Korea some time to build up and modernize, maybe take some chunks out of China.

Korea seems like they would be in a more secure position than Japan to be a Great Power, given their substantial natural resources and lack of vulnerability to naval blockade.

France tried first, so I would go with their attempt.



Korea's problem would not be the UK or DEI or some other European colony in maritime Asia, it would be Russia, since that's who it's competition for Manchuria would be. This could possibly butterfly away Russo-Japanese antagonism and lead to a partition of Korea between them. Unless Korea became a Russian or Japanese proxy used against the other.
 
Probably the easiest way to do so is to make the Russians a bit more successful and maybe the Chinese a bit more as well (lessen the impact of the Taiping Rebellion?) so that Korea can survive by each of the China/Russia/Japan triad deciding that they don't want any of the others to have Korea and not anyone else (like the French) either. Unless you kick the POD pretty far back, Korea's best best is to turn out like Thailand for similar reasons.
 
Is there any way Russia would want to keep Korea as a buffer state?

If they won the Russo-Japanese War, perhaps. The Russians were never going to annex the place like Japan did, given the distance from their power base and the fact that they can't be easily assimilated or colonized as Siberia or Central Asia could. Russia didn't need more minorities. If Russia won, Korea would likely end up as a Russian protectorate, with Russian dominance of the economy but significant local autonomy; similar to the banana republics of Central America of the time. Then, if there's a Russian Revolution of a similar magnitude to OTL, Korea could break free.
 
Do you think they would have to compete with Japan to be a great power? Or would the two be able to tolerate each other (or *gasp* work together)?
It really depends on when Korea modernizes. If it's a little later than Japan, I could see Japan acting superior to it. If it's about the same time, or even a little earlier, which is possible, then the two likely act as equals.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
If they won the Russo-Japanese War, perhaps. The Russians were never going to annex the place like Japan did, given the distance from their power base and the fact that they can't be easily assimilated or colonized as Siberia or Central Asia could. Russia didn't need more minorities. If Russia won, Korea would likely end up as a Russian protectorate, with Russian dominance of the economy but significant local autonomy; similar to the banana republics of Central America of the time. Then, if there's a Russian Revolution of a similar magnitude to OTL, Korea could break free.

A Russian puppet Korea is the best bet I think. Russia might throw some territory in Manchuria to them because it can't incorporate the land themselves, but Korea can only expand in that direction so far before it stops being Korean and starts being another Chinese state.
 
A Russian puppet Korea is the best bet I think. Russia might throw some territory in Manchuria to them because it can't incorporate the land themselves, but Korea can only expand in that direction so far before it stops being Korean and starts being another Chinese state.

That could happen, possibly. However, though, I do believe it could go the other way around as well; maybe Manchuria instead annexes some of the northernmost parts of Korea, in exchange for independence? That way, in the long term, the Koreans wouldn't be nearly as likely to worry about becoming a Chinese vassal. Just my take, really, feel free to debate if you'd like.
 
I doubt you could get Korea to 'pull a Meiji' without a POD quite far back, at least as far back as the early 19th century. 'Pull a Rattanakosin' is much more possible with a later POD.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The best way would be a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War. This more likely than not gives Korea enough time to modernize and be able to hold its own against any future Japanese adventurism.
 
The best way would be a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War. This more likely than not gives Korea enough time to modernize and be able to hold its own against any future Japanese adventurism.

But what would protect it against Russian adventurism? And would this create any qualms between Russia and China?
 
But what would protect it against Russian adventurism? And would this create any qualms between Russia and China?

A Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War would see Russian economic control over a large portion in Korea. As for political matters, a protectorate status is a potentiality, though de facto Russian influence on par with that exerted when the King (later Emperor) of Korea resided within the Russian legation is quite likely.

China is in a fairly weakened state, and after being beaten by the Japanese in the first Sino-Japanese war I really doubt they'd care about Korea.
 
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