Independent Finland (1742)

Apparently after the 1741 war between the Russian Empire and Kingdom of Sweden, the Finnish Estates gathered under Russian occupation and elected Duke Peter of Holstein-Gottorp to be king of an independent Finland. Receiving the blessings of the Scottish general occupying Finland, they prepared to ask the Russian Empire for the creation of a Kingdom of Finland.

For various reasons the whole 'Finnish independence' thing didnt really pan out. The Russian Empire did technically say that they would give Finland independence if the soundly beat the Swedes, which they did. However negotiations between Sweden and Russia ended before negotiations between Finland and Russia could start and it was agreed to let Sweden keep Finland.

What if alternate history powers worked here though and the Russian Empire approved of an independent but Russian friendly Finland with Duke Peter as the king?

Several consequences here. First the obvious one is a Finland, independent in 1742 (or slightly later due to butterfly effect). Second is that the newly elected King of Finland was designated as heir to the throne of Russia in OTL. As Peter III he was known for (majorly) screwing up the Seven Years War. Assuming as part of this scenario he isnt appointed heir, who would be the next Tsar/Tsarina or Russia?

Thoughts or comments?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
It would be interesting, Finland at this point was dominated by a Swedish speaking elite and a quarter of the population spoke Swedish. Peter himself also spoke Swedish having learned it when he was a candidate for the Swedish throne, interesting he never learned Russian. Beside that Peter was a Prussian fanboy and had a intense hatred of the Oldenburg dynasty (the king of Denmark) and a deep wish to be Duke of Schleswig-Holstein, but this happens before Prussia have won the War of Austrian Succession, and while Peter is only 14. He was not stupid, even if he did some moronic things. So his personality may change a lot, he will likely still hate Denmark, but with him getting his own throne (likely at his majority in 1746) so early instead of waiting decades, will likely keep him from develop his hero worship of Frederick the Great.
He will likely rule Finland as a standard enlightening monarch.

I imagine he will push reform for building up the army, agricultural (introduction of the potato) and mercantile reforms to increase his income. Maybe we will see a earlier introduction of universal or semi-universal education (in Swedish of course), trying to get immigrants to the country. In fact I could see him adopt a great deal of tolerance for non-Lutheran Protestants and Jews as the Prussians did. It's important to remember that he's also duke of Holstein-Gottorp while this happens. In OTL Holstein was in this period centre for several waves of agricultural advancements which spread to Denmark, while Finland is a lot less well-fitted to import these advancements, I could see the potato being quite a success in Finland both as animal and human food. Linguistic I imagine we will see some immigration of Germans and Jews, where the Germans integrate into the Swedish population in a generation or two, while the Jews stay linguistic distinct. With earlier introduction of a more general eduction, I expect the use of Swedish to be more widespread.

Peter will likely keep Finland separated from Russia at least until his crowning and quite likely afterward. If he still get couped, I could see the Finns electing his son king, which could create the precedence that the Russian heir rule Finland. A interesting aspect is that Paul I would be raised his first 8 years in Finland in a Swedish court and Peter may let him stay when he's crowned Tsar. In fact for Elizabeth it may also be preferable that her son stay in Åbo, where he's away from the court intrigues of Russia and a weaker symbol for potential rebels against her regime. Of course it's going to be interesting how the Russians is going to react to generations of Swedish speaking Tsars raised in a Lutheran court.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
A interesting aspect is the effect on the wider world. Sweden now is no bigger than Denmark-Norway, and a Russian vassal are just on the other side of the Gulf of Bothnia from Stockholm. This will likely create some panic in Sweden, I expect that we will see a increased investment in the army and navy, centralisation and general plans for either reconuest of Finland or other conquests (Norway or in Germany). Of course increased Swedish naval and military investments will push the Danes to do the same. As such both countries will begin a race of reforms and military build up. Of course Sweden do get a oppotunity in 1756 with the 7YW. Sweden will likely look at it as a oppotunity to regain the losses in Germany from the Great Northern War plus maybe Hinterpommern, with a bigger army and a greater focus on gaining land than in OTL, where it was halfhearted, I could see the Swedes make a difference. The Danes won't join, they know that any gain they make from Sweden will almost certainly be lost in the peace treaty and reparation wouldn't even cover the cost of the War, so they will make money of being neutral. So maybe we see the Prussians collapse in 1760 with Frederick commiting suicide and the Hohenzollern domain being cut down to Brandenburg and maybe Magdeburg. Hanover will likely keep Bremen-Verden, while Sweden gain the entire Pommern instead.
When Peter become Czar he may still get OTL insane idea of invading Denmark, while Sweden may be positive toward joining, it will likely be exhausted and not wish risking the loss of their new territories or the strengting of Russian control of the Baltic. This will likely lead to the same coup as OTL.
 
Just a question: 1742 was the year that Peter became the heir apparant the Russian throne. But in the same year the Swedish tried to make him the heir of Frederick I too (without knowing that Elizabeth of Russian had declared him her successor). So, any chance that ITTL the Swedish proposal could arrive to Peter before Elizabeth's one? And could Peter, now living in Finland and not under the eyes of Elizabeth, try to play with both sides, in hope of gaining both thrones?
 
Just a question: 1742 was the year that Peter became the heir apparant the Russian throne. But in the same year the Swedish tried to make him the heir of Frederick I too (without knowing that Elizabeth of Russian had declared him her successor). So, any chance that ITTL the Swedish proposal could arrive to Peter before Elizabeth's one? And could Peter, now living in Finland and not under the eyes of Elizabeth, try to play with both sides, in hope of gaining both thrones?

How can the Swedes actually accept a peace where Peter becomes King of an independent Finland, under Russian protection AND heir to Russia....Simply put they wouldnt.. Elizabeth would have to find a new heir that she finds acceptable from Anna Leopoldovnas Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel descendents. Its not like she cannot pick and choose you know given the Petrine inheritance laws of Russia. Perhaps some national reconciliation between the junior Petrine Romanovs and the more Senior Ivanovich Romanovs could be acheived.

Its probably one of the reasons he never got that Finnish crown Elizabeth was rather set on him as heir. Its not like she doesnt have alternatives though, she may for instance specify that he cannot be made heir to Sweden either if she has to forgoe him as heir to Russia as part of the peace ending the Hats War. If she has to do with someone else, then the Swedes can go to their alternate Holstein-Gottorp heir as well. Finland becoming effectively a neutral buffer between them. With ties into both houses, while Elizabeth lives of course.. After that his ties may be more directly with his more junior Swedish cousins.
 
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yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
It was really more about not becoming Russian. The Finnish elite feared Russia would annex all of Finland and tried to find another solution. However whne it became clear that Sweden would retain most of Finland, very few Finns were interested in separation.
 
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