Independent Brazil without Pedro?

This is something I have struggled deeply with. How would Brazil achieve Independence without the Portuguese royal family fleeing to Brazil?

Admittedly I'm not very good at Brazilian or Portuguese history, so that's partly my own fault.

Anyways, so, how would Brazil get Independence? POD is no Peninsular War and such.
 
Brazil was developing a regional identity at that time (see the Minas Gerais conspiracy of 1789, led by now-national-hero Tiradentes), so, even if the royal family stays in Lisbon, i still expect an "Ausgleich" of sorts to happen. Not to mention the increasing "tail wagging the dog" situation.
 
Brazil was developing a regional identity at that time (see the Minas Gerais conspiracy of 1789, led by now-national-hero Tiradentes), so, even if the royal family stays in Lisbon, i still expect an "Ausgleich" of sorts to happen. Not to mention the increasing "tail wagging the dog" situation.
So a sort of Portuguese-Brazilian Empire? How long would that last?
 
This is something I have struggled deeply with. How would Brazil achieve Independence without the Portuguese royal family fleeing to Brazil? Admittedly I'm not very good at Brazilian or Portuguese history, so that's partly my own fault. Anyways, so, how would Brazil get Independence? POD is no Peninsular War and such.

I wrote a TL on the subject some time ago - you can see in my signature. It got quite extensive with a Republican (and somewhat anti-Lusitanian) Brazil arising from a coalition between the elites of the Southeastern and Northeastern regions, heavily influenced by Great Britain. ITTL, the coming of the Braganças to Brazil is avoided altogether, and a fledling movement for autonomy increasingly becomes a movement for independence after the blundered attempts of the Portuguese of restoring the status quo ante provoke the Brazilians into rebellion.

My POD is pre-Peninsular War, actually, but the divergences are nonetheless heavily affected by the Peninsular War and by the French occupation of Spain.

I find the Peninsula War is actually a good POD, because IOTL it was a very important (not the only one, obviously) catalyst for the independence of Hispanoamerica, notably in Argentina and in Mexico, and then on Colombia. I figured that with some "tweaks" we could have Brazil come as a Republic much like what happened in Argentina or in Chile.
 
I wrote a TL on the subject some time ago - you can see in my signature. It got quite extensive with a Republican (and somewhat anti-Lusitanian) Brazil arising from a coalition between the elites of the Southeastern and Northeastern regions, heavily influenced by Great Britain. ITTL, the coming of the Braganças to Brazil is avoided altogether, and a fledling movement for autonomy increasingly becomes a movement for independence after the blundered attempts of the Portuguese of restoring the status quo ante provoke the Brazilians into rebellion.

My POD is pre-Peninsular War, actually, but the divergences are nonetheless heavily affected by the Peninsular War and by the French occupation of Spain.

I find the Peninsula War is actually a good POD, because IOTL it was a very important (not the only one, obviously) catalyst for the independence of Hispanoamerica, notably in Argentina and in Mexico, and then on Colombia. I figured that with some "tweaks" we could have Brazil come as a Republic much like what happened in Argentina or in Chile.

I've read your TL, and may I say it's quite great! Not sure how accurate it is, but I really liked it.

Although, I think my Brazil of my TL may split up into different states.
 
Yes, Brazil would achieve independence eventually, but there would be no Brazil. Expect a wide array of successor states, e.g. Pernambuco, Bahia, Rio de Janeiro (maybe including Minas Gerais and São Paulo) and Rio Grande do Sul, at the least. The Portuguese might be able to hold onto Grão Pará (the Amazon).
 
I've read your TL, and may I say it's quite great! Not sure how accurate it is, but I really liked it. Although, I think my Brazil of my TL may split up into different states.

I know that in my TL Brazil only survived intact due to some contrived and very peculiar circumstances (and, indeed, I put the POD early as the 1790s to guarantee some degree of plausibility), but I agree with @ByzantineCaesar here, I think it would have been likely for Brazil to fragment if we take off the "central" unifying element of OTL Brazilian Empire, which was the monarchy. I do think that we might have some later attempts of reunification (like what happened to Peru and Bolivia), depending on the circumstances - especially if one of these minor states, such as Rio de Janeiro + Minas Gerais + São Paulo gets some irredentist sentiment in the onset of the nationalism -, but this being the age of the Great Powers, once an European colonial empire intervenes to secure its hold over one of the "successor states", the state of disunity will tend to become permanent.
 
Top