Is there a way that the Austrofascists could retain power and Austrias independence? In the case of World War Two, would Austria be invaded by Germany, join the Axis Powers or remain neutral in the conflict and end up like Spain?
Is there a way that the Austrofascists could retain power and Austrias independence? In the case of World War Two, would Austria be invaded by Germany, join the Axis Powers or remain neutral in the conflict and end up like Spain?
Well I was once working on the draft of a TL where Englebert Dolfuss survives his assassination attempt in 1934. He reacts rather badly when he discovers the Nazi complicity in the assassination attempt and the associated July Putsch. The whole thing escalates into a war between Germany and Austria, with Mussolini's Italy joining on the side of Austria (in OTL they had troops on the Italo-Austrian border ready to go in case Germany tried anything in Austria). In 1934, Germany is absolutely NOT ready for war (which is why they didn't press the issue when their coup failed in OTL) and would have dificulty against a Italy-Austria alliance. Of course, this completely butterflies World War Two as we know it, but it would keep Austrofascists in power and Austria independent.
What are the odds that France jumps in on this war? Is it likely that they would want to take a stab at Germany at this stage? As you said, Germany is unprepared for a major conflict, and with three different countries ganging up on it, it could be dismantled for good. This might also discredit fascism in Germany and result in a massive swing left - interesting butterflies for a Cold War scenario (if said scenario comes into play).
I'm not sure if France would get in or not. Keep in mind that the Germans hadn't actually done anything aggressive up until the POD. They hadn't even re-militarised the Rhineland yet. The French will definitely be aiding the Italians and Austrians with materiel and such, but I don't think they'll go beyond that. Direct intervention is a possibility, but not an extremely likely one IMHO.
See the way I had it happening in my draft was that Fascism was not discredited (since it was Italian Fascists and Austrian Fascists that defeated them) but rather Nazism in particular that went out the window. I got up to the point where the war went badly and the military couped Hitler to set up a more Italian-style Fascist state but then I got stuck.
Is there a way that the Austrofascists could retain power and Austrias independence?
The referendum for Anschluss may have been actually 'legit' I heard, and lost... so...