Independent Austria in World War Two?

Is there a way that the Austrofascists could retain power and Austrias independence? In the case of World War Two, would Austria be invaded by Germany, join the Axis Powers or remain neutral in the conflict and end up like Spain?
 
Is there a way that the Austrofascists could retain power and Austrias independence? In the case of World War Two, would Austria be invaded by Germany, join the Axis Powers or remain neutral in the conflict and end up like Spain?

No, there is no way that could have happened.
 
Well I was once working on the draft of a TL where Englebert Dolfuss survives his assassination attempt in 1934. He reacts rather badly when he discovers the Nazi complicity in the assassination attempt and the associated July Putsch. The whole thing escalates into a war between Germany and Austria, with Mussolini's Italy joining on the side of Austria (in OTL they had troops on the Italo-Austrian border ready to go in case Germany tried anything in Austria). In 1934, Germany is absolutely NOT ready for war (which is why they didn't press the issue when their coup failed in OTL) and would have dificulty against a Italy-Austria alliance. Of course, this completely butterflies World War Two as we know it, but it would keep Austrofascists in power and Austria independent.
 
Well I was once working on the draft of a TL where Englebert Dolfuss survives his assassination attempt in 1934. He reacts rather badly when he discovers the Nazi complicity in the assassination attempt and the associated July Putsch. The whole thing escalates into a war between Germany and Austria, with Mussolini's Italy joining on the side of Austria (in OTL they had troops on the Italo-Austrian border ready to go in case Germany tried anything in Austria). In 1934, Germany is absolutely NOT ready for war (which is why they didn't press the issue when their coup failed in OTL) and would have dificulty against a Italy-Austria alliance. Of course, this completely butterflies World War Two as we know it, but it would keep Austrofascists in power and Austria independent.

What are the odds that France jumps in on this war? Is it likely that they would want to take a stab at Germany at this stage? As you said, Germany is unprepared for a major conflict, and with three different countries ganging up on it, it could be dismantled for good. This might also discredit fascism in Germany and result in a massive swing left - interesting butterflies for a Cold War scenario (if said scenario comes into play).
 
What are the odds that France jumps in on this war? Is it likely that they would want to take a stab at Germany at this stage? As you said, Germany is unprepared for a major conflict, and with three different countries ganging up on it, it could be dismantled for good. This might also discredit fascism in Germany and result in a massive swing left - interesting butterflies for a Cold War scenario (if said scenario comes into play).

I'm not sure if France would get in or not. Keep in mind that the Germans hadn't actually done anything aggressive up until the POD. They hadn't even re-militarised the Rhineland yet. The French will definitely be aiding the Italians and Austrians with materiel and such, but I don't think they'll go beyond that. Direct intervention is a possibility, but not an extremely likely one IMHO.

See the way I had it happening in my draft was that Fascism was not discredited (since it was Italian Fascists and Austrian Fascists that defeated them) but rather Nazism in particular that went out the window. I got up to the point where the war went badly and the military couped Hitler to set up a more Italian-style Fascist state but then I got stuck.
 
The Cold War was bound to happen in some way since it requires one of two things:

1. 'Dem nukes so people are unwilling to actually directly fight their enemies.

2. The USSR and the USA diverging from each other.

So in regards to this scenario, we may well have either butterflied WWII to a series of regional conflicts (i.e. Japan vs. Western powers in Asia, Soviets vs. Germans and other states, etc.) rather than any one overarching war. The Soviets are very likely, in the absence of a strong or expansionistic Germany (which will probably cease to be either of the above for a time if the Nazi regime disintegrates and a German successor state is left to pick up what's left) to take up the role of "Totalitarian State that scares everyone" in that great play that was European politics of the time. And of course, being Russians, they're old hands at such a role. WWII was an aberration of Soviet-American relations, in that they were good and not either tense, hostile, or jockeying for power in some manner. With no WWII, there is even less reason to work with the Soviets than OTL and we promptly have a repeat of the fallout between the two camps of nations.

Nuclear weapons will come along into the fray sooner or later, there will be a longer time that the Soviets do not have any weapons however, their spying efforts were brilliant, but the Americans also helped them willingly with some research.
 
I'm not sure if France would get in or not. Keep in mind that the Germans hadn't actually done anything aggressive up until the POD. They hadn't even re-militarised the Rhineland yet. The French will definitely be aiding the Italians and Austrians with materiel and such, but I don't think they'll go beyond that. Direct intervention is a possibility, but not an extremely likely one IMHO.

But if they catch wind that Germany was attempting to unite with Austria in the first place, would it not be as good as an excuse as any? Not thinking that France wanted war, but they have a fairly good chance of winning and they don't have to keep looking over their shoulder at Germany.

See the way I had it happening in my draft was that Fascism was not discredited (since it was Italian Fascists and Austrian Fascists that defeated them) but rather Nazism in particular that went out the window. I got up to the point where the war went badly and the military couped Hitler to set up a more Italian-style Fascist state but then I got stuck.

I meant fascism in Germany :). No doubt the fascist ideology will get itself the glamourous image of militancy, strength and ultimate success, but in Germany the extreme right-wingers will be completely discreditted, and probably replaced with socialists.

For instance, if France does get involved, they might hack apart what's left of Germany. Socialists (/communists) might be the ones to reunite the country in the place of the Nazis.
 

Cook

Banned
Is there a way that the Austrofascists could retain power and Austrias independence?

An independent Austria changes literally everything.

Hitler, rather than having some vast strategic plan, was looking for opportunity targets and the best target was Austria. Unless he has that his capabilities and his opportunities will both be so severely restricted that anything beyond a small land grabbing border dispute would threaten to overwhelm the Germans.

In 1938 Germany was desperately short of capital, Austria had double the capital reserves that Germany had, which is one of the reasons the Nazis were desperate to get their hands on it. Take the Anschluss out of the equation and the German economy is going to face a crisis well before the end of 1938.

While the German economy was in no fit state for a war of any length, the Austrian Army was almost completely unprepared for war. Unless the Italians, French or Czechoslovakians come to their aid they will be shortly overwhelmed. Just the threat of war any of these three would be enough to prevent a German invasion and during the crisis of ’38 Hitler was very careful to ensure that Italy was onside and the other two remained indifferent. That this was achieved says something of the skill of German diplomacy prior to Ribbentrop’s appointment as well as the suicidal short-sightedness of the democracies, particularly Czechoslovakia’s.

With Austria independent of Germany, Czechoslovakia is secure. The Little Maginot Line defences run the length of the German-Czech border and are the strongest fortifications in Europe. More importantly, while the French Army of the time was pessimistic verging on defeatist, the Czech army was extremely confident, well equipped by the best armaments industry in Europe and with a plan for aggressive counterattacks on any German breaches in the Czech line. Moreover the Czechs had an alliance with France which required each party to act in the event of an attack from Germany on the other; this alliance was the one that France subsequently betrayed at Munich.

Without the mining and industry of Czechoslovakia, as well as its capital reserves and the enormous increase in strategic depth that it gave the Germans, the Poles are reasonably secure. They were also on good terms with the Germans, despite German hopes regarding the Danzig corridor, and the need for a strong, friendly buffer between them and the Bolsheviks would necessitate the Germans maintaining these good relations. Indeed, in 1938 Hitler had been hoping that a dispute between Poland and Lithuania would flare up into conflict so that he could join in on the Polish side and pick up some Lithuanian territory north of Prussia.

So take the Anschluss out of the equation and not only does the geostrategic situation change enormously and entirely to Hitler’s detriment but it necessitates different relationships with Germany’s other neighbours.

The referendum for Anschluss may have been actually 'legit' I heard, and lost... so...

Neither plebiscite was in any way legitimate. The one planned and abandoned by Schuschnigg would have been every bit as rigged as the one held by the Nazis following the Anschluss. Had Schuschnigg held the referendum as planned the result would have been a win for Austrian independence but the country would have torn itself apart in civil war and faced invasion at the same time.
 
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