Independent Abaco? War in the Bahamas?

So I was reading about artificial islands, and an article came up about Michael Oliver, who supported the establishment of a Libertarian society and government. His initial plan was to build an artificial island on Minerva Reef but faced opposition from the Tongan government who annexed the reef before building could commence.

But basically Im asking about Oliver's second plan, support for the independence of the Abaco Islands and support for the Abaco Independence Movement (AIM), who gained support from white Bahamians who feared living in majority Black rule. They gained financial support from both Michael Oliver and arms dealer/mercenary Mitchell WerBell. So the question is, if a war started in the Bahamas between AIM and the Bahamian government could it have resulted in independence of Abaco? Or would the Bahamians crush the rebellion? And if they did defeat Abaco, what would be the aftereffects on the White population in the Bahamas? (At least the ones who fought for and supported AIM.
 
Or would the Bahamians crush the rebellion?
Whilst the Bahamas might have become independent a short while beforehand they were still a Commonwealth realm so even if the Bahamians weren't able to nip things in the bud I'd fully expect the British government to send a frigate with a complement of Royal Marines onboard along in short order or fly some troops in directly to help take care of things.


And if they did defeat Abaco, what would be the aftereffects on the White population in the Bahamas? (At least the ones who fought for and supported AIM).
Depends what you mean by 'supported'. Those who fought or actively supported the endeavour are going to be tried, most likely convicted, and sentenced to long spells in prison. Any of them, and even those who merely spoke in favour of it, who aren't Bahamian citizens likely get declared unconducive to the public good and deported as soon as possible. In general it probably doesn't do wonders for inter-racial relations on the islands.
 
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