Increased Soviet Expansionism In Asia in the Interwar Period

[Timmy811]

I was wondering how much the Soviets could get away with before the U.S. and Britain perceive an upset in the balance of power and react strongly.

They probably could have got away with annexing Xinjang and Mongolia without much protest, but if they followed that up with an invasion of Japanese Manchuria what would be the response? It would look like the USSR's devouring China bit by bit.

Would the West give Japan any material support?

 

[Namayan]

I was wondering how much the Soviets could get away with before the U.S. and Britain perceive an upset in the balance of power and react strongly.

They probably could have got away with annexing Xinjang and Mongolia without much protest, but if they followed that up with an invasion of Japanese Manchuria what would be the response? It would look like the USSR's devouring China bit by bit.

Would the West give Japan any material support?

This means timeline and pod is 1932-1939 due to your requirements, interwar period+Japanese Manchuria.

Manchuria can be invaded by the soviets in that time period and have success. Xinjiang is also a possibility. However, if the soviets do invade both Japanese Manchuria and Chinese controlled territories, they will be fighting two nations with a lot of resources. It is highly doubtful the soviets can win vs china and japan at the same time between 1932-1939 without withdrawing resources from Europe.

The soviets will lose the islands and coastal areas in Asia since their navy is not at par with IJN in 1932-39.

 

[Mirukī Hōmuzu]

This is going to make a lot of people very nervous. It's going to seem like Stalin has decided it's time to get the World Revolution underway and is starting by taking out his weakest neighbours. The US would be quite happy to keep supplying the Japanese with whatever they need if they're fighting the Great Communist Menace (tm), and the Japanese will be too busy trying to hold off the Soviets to bother invading any European holdings. The irony of a Japanese-Chinese alliance is incredible, but it might actually happen if the Russians invade Mongolia, Machuria and Xinjiang alike.

Meanwhile in Europe, Hitler may seem like a much less threatening guy and France and England might consider it a worthwhile sacrifice to just throw eastern Europe under a bus and hope Hitler will take out the Communists before the world turns Red. The allies backing a Barbarossa? Perhaps.

I think Socialism in One Country was one of Stalin's better ideas.

 

[Timmy811]

Mongolia was already a Soviet satellite wasn't it?

Doesn't have to be Stalin in charge, could be Trotsky or someone else.

 

[TFSmith121]

Be an interesting question if, rather than purging

I was wondering how much the Soviets could get away with before the U.S. and Britain perceive an upset in the balance of power and react strongly.

They probably could have got away with annexing Xinjang and Mongolia without much protest, but if they followed that up with an invasion of Japanese Manchuria what would be the response? It would look like the USSR's devouring China bit by bit.

Would the West give Japan any material support?

Be an interesting question if, rather than purging Tukhachevsky et al, Stalin sent the Red Army into Persia/Iran in response to a plea from the "workers and peasants of Iran" ... as it was, the Iranians collapsed when the Anglo-Soviets invaded in 1941; if the Soviets had mounted the same scale of operations in 1936, what would or could the European powers have done in response?

Best,

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Britain would absolutely have to militarily intervene in that case. It was absolutely reliant on Iranian oil, to a degree greater than the US is on Saudi oil now. The British would be shipping a lot of Indian troops there very quickly. To be honest, whilst Iran isn't the best terrain in the world, I think that the British and Iranian forces would be able to prevent the Red Army from taking major assets, as the Red Army wasn't in the best shape, even without the purges.

 

[Timmy811]

Britain would absolutely have to militarily intervene in that case. It was absolutely reliant on Iranian oil, to a degree greater than the US is on Saudi oil now. The British would be shipping a lot of Indian troops there very quickly. To be honest, whilst Iran isn't the best terrain in the world, I think that the British and Iranian forces would be able to prevent the Red Army from taking major assets, as the Red Army wasn't in the best shape, even without the purges.

Assured British intervention would likely make the Soviets averse to taking the risk of invading Iran, but what would be Britain's reactions to a Soviet-Japanese War over Manchuria?

 

[Timmy811]

Quick map I made of the territories in question.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Assured British intervention would likely make the Soviets averse to taking the risk of invading Iran, but what would be Britain's reactions to a Soviet-Japanese War over Manchuria?

Well I assume we're talking about the 1930s, since the Anglo-Japanese Alliance officially ended in 1923. I think that the British would probably support the Japanese diplomatically, but I don't think there would be much concern about Manchuria itself. The British have no vested interests there, and the biggest 'priority zones' for the British are Europe, the Middle East and India. Soviet attempts to expand East are the best possible scenario, if compared to Eastern Europe, Iran, Turkey or Afghanistan. So, in short, support for the Japanese, but nothing significant in real terms.

In terms of result, I assume that the Soviets will be able to defeat the Japanese in Manchuria. The Chinese will kick up a bit of a fuss, but Chiang's relationship with the USSR was complicated, to say the least. Manchuria will have the British (and other powers) more on-guard about future Soviet expansionism, though.

 

[Namayan]

Quick map I made of the territories in question.

The issue with this ATL Japan is its not fighting a multiple front war like OTL. That means resources were not wasted or lost vs the USA and other fronts which is vital to nation with a weaker industrial output compared to its peers.

I doubt the west would even bother to aid. The flowing Oil trade with USA should be sufficient for Japan to beat the Soviets with their intact air force, industry and navy.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

The issue with this ATL Japan is its not fighting a multiple front war like OTL. That means resources were not wasted or lost vs the USA and other fronts which is vital to nation with a weaker industrial output compared to its peers.

I doubt the west would even bother to aid. The flowing Oil trade with USA should be sufficient for Japan to beat the Soviets with their intact air force, industry and navy.

How are they supposed to beat them? I don't think it makes a major difference whether or not it was a two-front war, since a lot of the Pacific campaigns were mounted by the IJN.

Sure, there will be less pressure on the IJA, but I doubt that will really make a massive difference.

Manchuria is still excellent terrain for the Red Army. The Red Army at the time has its share of problems, sure, but the IJA at the time wasn't capable of standing up to the Red Army's immense superiority in tanks and artillery. Manchuria is largely flat ground. Superior Soviet firepower will crush the Japanese. Even with the purges, Soviet operation leadership such as Zhukov is still superior. At the lower echelons, the Japanese may have an advantage in leadership, but the popularity of banzai charges calls that into question. The material discrepancy more than makes up for that.

 

[LeX]

The Soviets don't have to attempt a full-scale invasion of Manchuria in order to exert influence on it. They can call the Japanese out on the 9-18 Incident and move in to "assist" the local Chinese forces*.The Japanese Kwantung Army was rather small at the time and it was feared that the Japanese civilian government would not give the invasion the needed reinforcement. A big enough engagement that ends in the rout of Kuantung forces might well be enough to send the IJA packing.

This would be an embarrassment to the impotent League of Nations which was all bark and no bite. Given Stalin's cautious approach to international affairs, he probably wouldn't do anything rash like break Manchuria off of the Republic of China or set up a communist government there. Zhang Xueliang, the local warlord, was already a KMT man. There would be nothing to gain from ousting him and a lot to lose. Like any self-respecting warlord, despite being nominally loyal to the KMT and Chiang Kai-shek, Zhang wanted more power for himself. By assisting him the Soviets could turn him into an ally of sorts. Keeping Zhang Xueliang in place as a strong semi-independent regional power would serve Soviet interests by providing a counter to Chiang Kai-shek.

For Stalin, the growth of the puny CCP wouldn't really factor into his plans for China, so assuming Zhang Xueliang doesn't prove totally incompetent in the long term, the communists probably won't find any easy ways to expand in Manchuria, unless after a few years the Soviets decide to destabilize Zhang's regime a bit. In any case, the CCP will likely be crushed by the KMT sometime in the late 30s, because...

...with the IJA having suffered a decisive defeat at the hands of the Soviet Union, and having its plans for Manchuria go down the toilet, there's no way they're going to try anything major in China proper. Some sort of "Strike South" plan might still be attempted in the hopes of securing land and resources for the Japanese empire**, but with some luck the Japanese may be able to weather the waves of the Great Depression for long enough until TTL's WWII, at which point it can do what it did in WWI and sell logistical goods to the Allies. With this economic upturn, the militarists would become less relevant as a viable political force and would slowly fade into the background. This would be a very good thing for Japan in the long term.

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*= IOTL, instead of resisting the Japanese, the Manchurian warlord army withdrew to south of the Great Wall to preserve its strength. One PoD for the Soviet intervention scenario could be that the decision to fight back against the Japanese is made instead.

**= If the Japanese military still plans and executes some variant of the "Strike South" plan to fulfill their imperial ambition, something akin to the OTL Pacific War is in order, with Japan being defeated and occupied by Americans.

 

[Namayan]

How are they supposed to beat them? I don't think it makes a major difference whether or not it was a two-front war, since a lot of the Pacific campaigns were mounted by the IJN.

Sure, there will be less pressure on the IJA, but I doubt that will really make a massive difference.

Manchuria is still excellent terrain for the Red Army. The Red Army at the time has its share of problems, sure, but the IJA at the time wasn't capable of standing up to the Red Army's immense superiority in tanks and artillery. Manchuria is largely flat ground. Superior Soviet firepower will crush the Japanese. Even with the purges, Soviet operation leadership such as Zhukov is still superior. At the lower echelons, the Japanese may have an advantage in leadership, but the popularity of banzai charges calls that into question. The material discrepancy more than makes up for that.

The Red Army can win battles but they cannot win a war. Dont expect them to replicate OTL Manchurian invasion. In this war, the Japanese have the capability to reinforce and support their troops unlike OTL.

You have to consider the fact of support of the Japanese Navy and Air Force which never existed by the time the Russians invaded in OTL because USA had already obliterated them. I dont know why you fail to consider that coastal areas of Manchuria and the Soviets are vulnerable are reinforceable to the IJN. Or that you need air superiority to be successful in these mass tactics.

Unless the Pod is around 1938-39, Zhukov isnt yet a General.

As per Op, This is a China+Japan vs the Soviets. The Soviets cannot put their best forces in just one place and expect to win in other places as well.

 

[pa_dutch]

How would they be incorporated and organized? Mongolia would be the Mongol SSR, maybe Xinjiang would be the Uyghur SSR, but what about Manchuria? Would it recieve its own or SSR, or would it be incorporated into the Russian SFSR? Apparently the Jewish Autonomous Oblast was planned to cross into Manchuria, so at least part of it would become part of Russia. On a more local level, the Koreans of the Soviet Union might finally have an ASSR, in the area of OTL's Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province of China. The ethnic Manchus might get an ASSR, and it would be interesting to see an ethnic Han Chinese ASSR, which would be huge (cue mass deportations).

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

The Red Army can win battles but they cannot win a war. Dont expect them to replicate OTL Manchurian invasion. In this war, the Japanese have the capability to reinforce and support their troops unlike OTL.

You have to consider the fact of support of the Japanese Navy and Air Force which never existed by the time the Russians invaded in OTL because USA had already obliterated them. I dont know why you fail to consider that coastal areas of Manchuria and the Soviets are vulnerable are reinforceable to the IJN. Or that you need air superiority to be successful in these mass tactics.

Unless the Pod is around 1938-39, Zhukov isnt yet a General.

As per Op, This is a China+Japan vs the Soviets. The Soviets cannot put their best forces in just one place and expect to win in other places as well.

The OP didn't say anything about China fighting the Soviets, just about Japan. And I know we aren't talking August Storm.

Okay, lets remove Zhukov from the picture. I still believe that the Soviets are in a stronger position. They had the largest air force in the world, and although Japanese pilots (and arguably their planes too) are better, that will change with combat experience, and the Soviet numerical superiority will likely make the skies over Manchuria contested airspace, effectively negating airpower as a factor in victory. The IJN can't do much beyond provide some air support, given that they were a battleship-based navy, and I assume many of their WWII aircraft carriers weren't active during most of the interwar period.

It isn't that I failed to consider the Japanese capacity to use naval support, it's just that I don't see it as being particularly significant. In terms of reinforcements, I assume that we are talking about the period before the militarists took control of the Japanese government. I don't believe there would be the political will to sink lots of troops into a losing battle. If the Soviets were to invade Korea, which I doubt, it would be a different story.

 

[Timmy811]

How would they be incorporated and organized? Mongolia would be the Mongol SSR, maybe Xinjiang would be the Uyghur SSR, but what about Manchuria? Would it recieve its own or SSR, or would it be incorporated into the Russian SFSR? Apparently the Jewish Autonomous Oblast was planned to cross into Manchuria, so at least part of it would become part of Russia. On a more local level, the Koreans of the Soviet Union might finally have an ASSR, in the area of OTL's Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province of China. The ethnic Manchus might get an ASSR, and it would be interesting to see an ethnic Han Chinese ASSR, which would be huge (cue mass deportations).

Manchuria would be an SSR, too big and too populated to be incorporated into Russia I think. Yanbian as an ASSR...maybe.