Incas meet the French instead of Spanish

[Catspoke]

Lets say instead of meeting the conquest minded Spanish first, lets say the Incas somehow manage to meet someone of the the French colonial mindset first.

i.e. Someone, willing to make a fortune selling steel axes for gold goblets. You set up a fort, put on some display of your military prowess to let them know you can't be messed with, nominally you are under French control but otherwise the Inca empire/culture/religion can remain as it is as long as trade is forthcoming and the incursion of other foreigners is resisted.

How long would it take for the Incas to catchup/compete with the Europeans. Obvously the Incas are a stone age people compared to something like 1500s Japan or India, but its a large well organized empire with thousands of warriors, even if your technology is lower you have vast superiority in numbers (as long as its not clubs vs. cannons).

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

There are a couple of other threads like this but assuming the Inca survive for whatever reason even with a Japanese style modernization plan it would take several generations at minimum. The Inca's largest advantage against European conquest is their remoteness but that also works against them. All of their contact with Europeans is going to be through missionaries and traders with a vested interest in keeping them in the stone-age and sowing strife in the Empire.

Things like gunpowder and firearms are very complicated specialist industries and they're not going to be able to replicate them without detailed instructions and expert help. Cannons would be next to impossible. Basically the Inca have to receive a crash course on four thousand years of military and technological advances. And all of this assumes that the very new and kind of unstable Inca Empire would have everything go their way. A rapid overhaul of the entire way of life is going to cause a huge amount of upheaval and all of that is if France doesn't finally decide a few years in that they'll just take all of that gold instead of trading.

 

[Just a Rube]

You also have to remember that the different French and Spanish colonial patterns aren't built into their national DNA. Any European nation that encounters the massive wealth of the Inca is going to want a piece of it.

 

[TheNordicBrit]

You also have to remember that the different French and Spanish colonial patterns aren't built into their national DNA. Any European nation that encounters the massive wealth of the Inca is going to want a piece of it.

Indeed, let's be frank about it, the reason the French never did any kind of huge 'conquering campaign' in North America was because there wasn't a single, relatively unified 'state' against them with a big-ish population.

 

[Mr.brightside]

There are a couple of other threads like this but assuming the Inca survive for whatever reason even with a Japanese style modernization plan it would take several generations at minimum. The Inca's largest advantage against European conquest is their remoteness but that also works against them. All of their contact with Europeans is going to be through missionaries and traders with a vested interest in keeping them in the stone-age and sowing strife in the Empire.

Things like gunpowder and firearms are very complicated specialist industries and they're not going to be able to replicate them without detailed instructions and expert help. Cannons would be next to impossible. Basically the Inca have to receive a crash course on four thousand years of military and technological advances. And all of this assumes that the very new and kind of unstable Inca Empire would have everything go their way. A rapid overhaul of the entire way of life is going to cause a huge amount of upheaval and all of that is if France doesn't finally decide a few years in that they'll just take all of that gold instead of trading.

Four thousand years is a little harsh but I agree with you on most things. In all likelihood any European nation that stumbles upon the inca are going to conquer it for the precious metals. And we have yet to even bring up disease.

 

[Mr.brightside]

The population advantage of the Inca doesn't really matter when there are plenty of disgruntled peoples for Europeans to ally with.

 

[Dorozhand]

4000 years? Do you think the Inca were idiots who needed the white man to teach them everything about the basics of war? They founded an empire which expanded at an amazing rate in a very small amount of time. They were doing something right and obviously possessed a level of technological and tactical know-how beyond that of Old Kingdom Egypt

Pizarro wouldn't have been a problem for Inca in its prime. The reason he succeeded was the ongoing civil war.

Not that an initial victory can be maintained for long, but the Inca as a unified empire aren't programmed to just keel over either.

 

[Lord Grattan]

You also have to remember that the different French and Spanish colonial patterns aren't built into their national DNA. Any European nation that encounters the massive wealth of the Inca is going to want a piece of it.

Indeed, let's be frank about it, the reason the French never did any kind of huge 'conquering campaign' in North America was because there wasn't a single, relatively unified 'state' against them with a big-ish population.

Spot on guys. If they, rather than the Spanish had caught "gold fever", they would have built and deployed a conquering army to secure it. Regarding the northern part of the continent, the French didn't mount a North American conquering campaign for the simple reason that such a force wasn't needed. They did an excellent job of exploiting the native fauna and spreading the Roman Catholic/Christian faith without one.

 

[Niko Malaka]

Four thousand years is a little harsh but I agree with you on most things. In all likelihood any European nation that stumbles upon the inca are going to conquer it for the precious metals. And we have yet to even bring up disease.

I would say that any european nation that stumbles upon the Tawantinsuyu would TRY to conquer it. Wether they are successfull or not is another matter. Certainly the odds are against the Inca in the technological field and the impact of diseases would be another problem for them. Still, they have the edge in manpower. On the other hand, Pizarro had the luck to find the empire involved in a civil war, a luck other powers/adventurers in a ATL wouldn't have necessarily. Also, any other european power would send their expeditions from even further bases than OTL Spain, which is another problem. And finally, Spain herself probably wouldn't be happy with the intervention of another power in an area considered to be part of the spanish sphere under the Inter Caetera bull and could try to intervene or at least interfere if they get notice.

 

[Catspoke]

I'm thinking the Inca with a little time to figure out these new Europeans might learn new tactics, I.e picking battles in rough terrain and choke points vs open plains.

Once the fright factor of the gunpowder weapons is overcome. Sheer numbers can overcome much.

In the 1500s you have to figure European forces can be only hundreds. 1600s thousands, 1700s 10s of thousands. So there is some time to tech up.

You would have to figure European rivalries might lead one power to supply the Inca with expertise and some weapons.

 

[juanml82]

4000 years? Do you think the Inca were idiots who needed the white man to teach them everything about the basics of war? They founded an empire which expanded at an amazing rate in a very small amount of time. They were doing something right and obviously possessed a level of technological and tactical know-how beyond that of Old Kingdom Egypt

Pizarro wouldn't have been a problem for Inca in its prime. The reason he succeeded was the ongoing civil war.

Not that an initial victory can be maintained for long, but the Inca as a unified empire aren't programmed to just keel over either.

And it's amazing they've managed to build and sustain that empire without inventing writing.
Yes, they were backwards compared to the European (or Arabic or Eastern) nations.

 

[Dorozhand]

And it's amazing they've managed to build and sustain that empire without inventing writing.
Yes, they were backwards compared to the European (or Arabic or Eastern) nations.

4000 years is ridiculous. They were more advanced than the like of ancient Egypt. They built cities in the mountains and mastered terrace agriculture. They built a civilization on oral transition, and although they didn't invent writing as we would recognize it, they did invent an intricate method of recordkeeping which essentially functioned for the same purposes the peoples of old world antiquity used writing for (records and astronomy).

 

[DominusNovus]

Its also worth noting that the French likely adopted a relatively peaceful trading policy with the natives because the fur trade required people who could operated independently and knew the land, fauna, flora, and people intimately. Outsourcing that work to the natives was simply good economics.

 

[dead_wolf]

Let's also consider the disease-edge that the Europeans will have. The whole reason the Spanish were able to conquer the Inca so quickly, much like with the Aztec, was the result of an outbreak of smallpox.

Even with a more conciliatory colonial attitude towards the Inca their state and society is going to fall apart as 90% of the population simply falls over dead.

 

[Dorozhand]

Let's also consider the disease-edge that the Europeans will have. The whole reason the Spanish were able to conquer the Inca so quickly, much like with the Aztec, was the result of an outbreak of smallpox.

Even with a more conciliatory colonial attitude towards the Inca their state and society is going to fall apart as 90% of the population simply falls over dead.

The Aztecs were weakened by disease, but it by no means collapsed their society. There were numerous points at which Cortez could have been decisively crushed and the Aztecs given time to recover.

 

[dead_wolf]

The Aztecs were weakened by disease, but it by no means collapsed their society. There were numerous points at which Cortez could have been decisively crushed and the Aztecs given time to recover.

Granted... the Siege of Tenochtitlan is a great example of such. But we're talking about a peaceful colonial policy in regards to the Inca. That implies something that sticks around and lasts for decades. Which means decades of disease exchange from the Europeans to the Inca; the latter are almost all going to be dead within a half century.

 

[Umbral]

Yes. Disease is the Incas biggest problem by a very big margin. They only fell because they were in the middle of a civil war triggered by disease killing their ruler.

However, the Incas do have a few advantages on the other mesoamerican civilizations.

Their core territory is exceptionally defensible.

And I believe they ran a policy of incorporating conquered peoples, rather than dominating them. There would be less opportunity to ally with disgruntled subject peoples. Newly conquered territories still allied with Spain. Further, the climate of their mountainous territories would blunt the impact of some diseases. Although by no means all.

Things like gunpowder and firearms are very complicated specialist industries and they're not going to be able to replicate them without detailed instructions and expert help. Cannons would be next to impossible. Basically the Inca have to receive a crash course on four thousand years of military and technological advances. And all of this assumes that the very new and kind of unstable Inca Empire would have everything go their way. A rapid overhaul of the entire way of life is going to cause a huge amount of upheaval and all of that is if France doesn't finally decide a few years in that they'll just take all of that gold instead of trading.

I agree with everything you've said except the bit about the huge amount of upheval. The Inca empire, at the time it encountered the Spanish were still new enough to have citizens born pre-empire. Unlike old and established powers "New Stuff" was the norm there, not the exception.

Even without a military upgrade, actually conquering the Incas would be exceptionally difficult if the Incas maintained political continuity. Spain was freakishly lucky in capturing the Inca himself through sheer luck.

What the Incas really needed was falling back to the mountains and embarking on a program of learning the strangers powers. A strong, competent and long-lived ruler could have accomplished that.

The diseases would probably have been too much for them anyway. Smallpox had a lethality between 60-94 % in the Inca territories, and thats just one disease.

 

[juanml82]

4000 years is ridiculous. They were more advanced than the like of ancient Egypt. They built cities in the mountains and mastered terrace agriculture. They built a civilization on oral transition, and although they didn't invent writing as we would recognize it, they did invent an intricate method of recordkeeping which essentially functioned for the same purposes the peoples of old world antiquity used writing for (records and astronomy).

Is it that off the mark? The Iron Age in the Old World started by 1,300 BC. By 1,500 AC they Incas weren't there. Writing is even older by millenia.
Maybe we have to cut it to 3,000 years. 2,000 if we're generous, but that's how badly behind they were.

 

[Max Sinister]

I wonder whether the French could learn something from the Inca, about governing an empire.

 

[Elfwine]

I wonder whether the French could learn something from the Inca, about governing an empire.

That would be interesting. Not sure how many Europeans would want to learn from the natives, but what did the Inca know about this sort of thing that might be worth learning?

I'm not sure their notion of "this is our empire" was comparable to European expansion - I just don't know enough about how they saw things. They might have thought of it as more like how Louis XIV saw expansion of France directly.

Still something worth asking about, hope someone knows.