Inca Empire post-Pizarro?

[8Deer]

I love the idea of a surviving Inca Empire. I've been researching it for a while now on and off, reading as much as I can about the subject. While it is easy to speculate on a pre-Pizarro POD (the Inca discover how to create steel, Huayna Capac doesn't die, etc), I think a more interesting and far more difficult challenge is to get the Inca to survive after Pizarro arrives. Here are some of the PODs I have thought about:

1) Atawallpa isn't captured at Cajamarca. Maybe he manages to escape after the Spanish begin their attack, although it seems unlikely. Maybe he decides to try to wipe out the Spanish instead of meet with them. I doubt he would be successful, but the Inca could then flee to the Andes, where they can easily defeat the 180 Spaniards.

2) The Incas are victorious during the siege of Cuzco. There are probably several PODs that could lead to this. One I'm considering is this: when the Incas bomarded the city with flaming stones and arrows, the roof of the building that the Spanish were barricaded in caught fire, but it was put out. What if it hadn't been and the Spanish had been forced to make a last stand out in the open? Another one: what if during the failed Spanish counterattack at Ollantaytambo, Hernando Pizarro had been killed by a stray sling stone or arrow?

3) A final POD: WI Manco Inca doesn't throw General Quizo's life away in a hopeless assault on Lima? Quizo had previously ambushed and killed several battallions of Spaniards in the Andes, killing over 200 of them. However, on the flat ground around Lima, the Spanish cavalry had an overwhelming advantage and Quizo was killed in their first charge. So WI Manco Inca decides to have Quizo wait and ambush and kill any relieving forces that are sent to Cuzco?

The problem with the last two is that Diego de Almagro is still coming back from Peru with over 500 conquistadors...

So any thoughts on these or other post contact PODs for a surviving Tawantinsuyu?

 

[DaleCoz]

Manco not getting assassinated

Manco (leader of the Inca rebellions against Spanish rule) was assassinated by Spanish refugees from the civil wars of the conquistadors. He was still young and generally an effective leader. Having him around would have made things more difficult for the Spanish.

A major Inca figure (Paullu) sided with the Spaniards in the Inca revolts if he had joined the rebellion it would have helped enormously.

A longer series of wars between the conquistadors might have helped. The revolt of the last of the Pizzaro brothers could have lasted longer and kept the Spaniards from concentrating on the rump Inca state.

I've done a couple of scenarios on this sort of thing in my AH Newsletters if you're interested. I don't recall which issue.

 

[8Deer]

Manco (leader of the Inca rebellions against Spanish rule) was assassinated by Spanish refugees from the civil wars of the conquistadors. He was still young and generally an effective leader. Having him around would have made things more difficult for the Spanish.

IMHO, this is too late. By this point, the Spanish were too numerous for the Inca to defeat, and Vilcabamba would have probably still fallen. Maybe a bit later.

A major Inca figure (Paullu) sided with the Spaniards in the Inca revolts if he had joined the rebellion it would have helped enormously.

I like this one. Although there might be a power struggle between the two Incas...

I've done a couple of scenarios on this sort of thing in my AH Newsletters if you're interested. I don't recall which issue.

I'll be sure to check it out .

Another possibility is finding a way for Hernando Pizarro's Chachapoya and Canari auxillaries to mutiny against him and join Manco. I believe that at the beginning of his rebellion, Manco ordered no Indians or Black slaves to be killed. Later, he seems to have ignored this. What kind of incentive can he offer to make Hernando's auxilliary troops join the Inca? Without them, Hernando couldn't hold Cuzco.

 

[Atom]

Well, I think any of the ones you outline are plausible. They all lead to similar results: The Spanish retreat or are killed (but I think word will get back to the Spaniards in Mexico. It seems unlikely that none of the Spaniards or their auxiliaries will escape at all, or for rumors to come back). The major difference is that the first one will still have Atawalpa on the throne, and the second to will have Manco Inca. In the first, the Inca empire will still have a largely pre-Spanish functioning governmental structure, while in the second manco Inca will probably struggle to reassert his control.

The major result of all them, I think, is the fact that the Inca will now have experience in fighting the Spanish. The major lessons they can learn from these battles are (again, this is just my guess):
-never fight Spaniards on flat ground especially when they have Horses, they are much more vulnerable when in the mountains, particularly sections where there are steps on the road to mitigate the horses.
-try fighting Spaniards with slings that are covered in pitch and on fire. This is the only major way the Inca can harm the Spaniards without access to other weaponry.

Considering that Villacamba was able t hold out by itself 'till 1572, I think the Inca (if they're smart) can probably hold off the Spaniards for quite a while. They won't have Villacamba's isolation, but they will have a lot more resources. They may have to abandon the coastlines to the Spaniards, but the areas, particularly the area around Cuzco, can probably hod off the Spaniards.

After, that we'll have to deal with the long term effects of having a powerful native state in the New World, but we can deal with that later.

 

[8Deer]

The major difference is that the first one will still have Atawalpa on the throne, and the second to will have Manco Inca. In the first, the Inca empire will still have a largely pre-Spanish functioning governmental structure, while in the second manco Inca will probably struggle to reassert his control.

Indeed, but in the second the Inca have much more experience defeating the Spanish and access to Spanish horses. In OTL, Manco Inca made limited use of cavalry, so maybe ITTL, he actually manages to incorporate cavalry into the Incan army.

-try fighting Spaniards with slings that are covered in pitch and on fire. This is the only major way the Inca can harm the Spaniards without access to other weaponry.

How about if they make better use of bolas? Rather than just individual warriors using them, they could be used in coordination. They were extremely effective against cavalry because they could tangle up a horse's legs very easily.

 

[Cook]

How long do you want them to survive for?

 

[8Deer]

How long do you want them to survive for?

Dunno really. I think I'm going to write up a TL for this and just make it up as I go. They may survive to the present day, or they might fall when the next wave of Spanish arrive.

Something that I've seen mentioned on this site though is the Inca getting the backing of a foreign power. I'm thinking the English, so hopefully they can survive until they come around.

 

[Atom]

Indeed, but in the second the Inca have much more experience defeating the Spanish and access to Spanish horses. In OTL, Manco Inca made limited use of cavalry, so maybe ITTL, he actually manages to incorporate cavalry into the Incan army.

True. I think it really depends on how interested the Spanish are in retaliating. It's difficult to predict since the Spanish weren't defeated in OTL like they are in ATL, so we have no analogous situations.

How about if they make better use of bolas? Rather than just individual warriors using them, they could be used in coordination. They were extremely effective against cavalry because they could tangle up a horse's legs very easily.

This is true, but they won't allow them to get past Spanish armor. Really, I'd expect a combination of both tactics.

 

[Midas]

Haha, this is awesome I was wondering a similar sort of thing, though my PoD is way back (not even sure if the Inca will come around O_O). But some sort of surviving empire in the mountains hopefully for me.

This is really interesting I hope you keep it up. A post-Pizarro PoD is something I have not yet seen on here, there's a good pre-contact Inca-TL (Guns of Tawantinsuya)

 

[8Deer]

True. I think it really depends on how interested the Spanish are in retaliating. It's difficult to predict since the Spanish weren't defeated in OTL like they are in ATL, so we have no analogous situations.

I can't imagine that the Spanish wouldn't come back. I mean, if anything they will be more tempted since they know for sure that there is a rich Indian empire to the south.

This is true, but they won't allow them to get past Spanish armor. Really, I'd expect a combination of both tactics.

Didn't they use the flaming pitch strategy in OTL? Was it effective? I remember reading about it, but I don't the remember the results. I know it was used during the siege of Cuzco, but that was more to get the buildings burning.

This is really interesting I hope you keep it up. A post-Pizarro PoD is something I have not yet seen on here

There actually was one started a little while ago, but it didn't get very far which is a shame.

 

[DaleCoz]

Portugal

Wonder how long it would be before Portugal got involved if the Incas or part of them remained independent.

 

[DaleCoz]

Incas survive scenarios

Hmmm. I went through the online versions of my AH Newsletters and only found one sort of "Incas survive" timeline. I know I wrote at least two others, but I must not have put them online. One involved an extended civil war of the conquistadors which led to an Inca state and at least one other independent Indian state surviving into the 1700s, along with an independent Pizarro dynasty in lowland Peru. The other one was a "If you were in Atahualpa's shoes" challenge. I'll have to dig those out and post them here when I get unburied.

The one I did post online actually involved the Chimu, one of the major early competitors to the Incas. I should probably post that here too. In the meantime, here is a link:

http://www.dalecozort.com/AHNewsletter/Aug00/perumexico.htm

For the Incas to win they had to overcome several problems:

1) The division between the Huascar and Atahualpa factions. Atahualpa had the bulk of the professional troops, and by the time of the Spanish advent had destroyed the Huascar faction's military power. At the same time, they had little support in the Inca heartland and were looked on almost as invaders themselves, since they had been fighting in Ecuador for a prolonged period.

2) The inability of the Incas of any faction to kill Spaniards in any kind of quantities, even if odds were overwhelmingly in their favor. They could win in mountain passes and a few other favorable locations, but in general they were far less effective than the Aztecs at killing Spaniards. Part of the problem was lack of bows in most Inca armies. Mercenary bowmen from jungle tribes were often the Inca's most effective troops. The kind of obsidian swords that were in common use among the Aztecs would have helped. They wouldn't have made the Incas man for man a match for the Spanish, but the Incas didn't have to be.

3) The fact that the Spanish had a large reserve of want-to-be conquistadors in Mexico and the West Indies. As long as there was an independent Inca kingdom the Spanish would have kept coming.

4) Disease. It would keep reducing the Inca population, with or without conquest, though probably at a slower rate than it did historically, due to reduced exposure.

 

[8Deer]

1) The division between the Huascar and Atahualpa factions. Atahualpa had the bulk of the professional troops, and by the time of the Spanish advent had destroyed the Huascar faction's military power. At the same time, they had little support in the Inca heartland and were looked on almost as invaders themselves, since they had been fighting in Ecuador for a prolonged period.

Agreed there.

2) The inability of the Incas of any faction to kill Spaniards in any kind of quantities, even if odds were overwhelmingly in their favor. They could win in mountain passes and a few other favorable locations, but in general they were far less effective than the Aztecs at killing Spaniards. Part of the problem was lack of bows in most Inca armies. Mercenary bowmen from jungle tribes were often the Inca's most effective troops. The kind of obsidian swords that were in common use among the Aztecs would have helped. They wouldn't have made the Incas man for man a match for the Spanish, but the Incas didn't have to be.

Maybe they could get inspired by Spanish swords? They could take a piece of hardwood and put bronze blades along the edges or something similar.

3) The fact that the Spanish had a large reserve of want-to-be conquistadors in Mexico and the West Indies. As long as there was an independent Inca kingdom the Spanish would have kept coming.

Of course. I'm the next wave might conquer the coast but given that the Incas have some experience now, they might be able to hold the highlands.

4) Disease. It would keep reducing the Inca population, with or without conquest, though probably at a slower rate than it did historically, due to reduced exposure.

This is a huge obstacle, but most of the deaths probably actually came from the brutal treatment that the natives received at the hands of the Spaniards. Still, if 50+ percent of your population dies, that is going to put a hell of a lot of strain on the Empire.