1776 was the worst year for the rebels, not only had New York been lost to the enemy but by the end of the year the Continental Army was rife with desertion, had lost several major battles, and IIRC enlistments were about to run out. Thomas Paine famously summed things up in The American Crisis with the opening phrase "These are the times that try men's souls." George Washington himself thought that the game was up and defeat was all but certain by the end of 1776, prompting a desperate attack on the vulnerable Hessian garrison in Trenton that completely reversed the course of the war despite its meager scale and gains. If the Trenton attack fails or even does not take place, the British mop up what's left of the rebellion once spring arrives in 1777.