Hey! Welcome to my first real attempt at a plausible ATL. The POD is around 1917 to 1919, or so... The POD is probably not some single event that you can really put your finger, but, instead, a whole lot of different things. I have written this timeline in terms of general trends, and not as a linear progression of events. I expect to receive kudos from some, and criticism from many, for this approach. I also intend to carry it along without any really tangible idea of what it will be like when I finally get back to this point in history.
Although, as I said, I am not wedded to any ideas as to how things develop so far, I have some general ideas. I'd like to see a powerful Japanese empire in control of much of the Far East. It will be neither a particularly benevolent nation, nor a particularly monstrous one - instead, I intend to portray it as a very flawed country with both is strengths and its weaknesses. I want to portray it as very complex, with multiple political, societal, economic, religious, geographical, ethnic, ideological, and other divisions. I would also like to portray Japan not simply in terms of how Western nation-states operate: although quite Westernized, a Japan that is throwing off an inferiority complex vis-a-vis the West and which is coming up with alternate forms of government, and so on, will do things differently, I like to think.
So, this is it so far. I'd like to have all sorts of criticism, please. Be brutal. My style of writing is probably rather atrocious, but it was more along the lines of inkshedding - getting the idea down, not necessarily making it sound good. It jumps around quite a bit, and is perhaps too long-winded.
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The Japanese administration of its new territories in northeastern Asia varies from region to region, and from time to time. The two priorities are: to hold the new territories from aggressive powers, be they the Bolsheviks, the Chinese, the Occidental powers, or the Bloody Baron; and to make the regions suitable and desirable for Japanese settlement.
The situation in Korea remains the same until the conclusion of Japanese-American War, and even for some time after.
In Manchuria, a puppet state is established under leadership of a "high council" of Manchus. The Manchu language is promoted, as well as Japanese. This Manchukuo is a protectorate of Japan, and, therefore, its military answers to the leadership of the Imperial Japanese Army. The high council is theoretically independent, but really answers to Army officials, as well. They maintain a high degree of autonomy, though, and promote an idea of Manchu nationalism, which includes the expulsion of Chinese men and women, the maintenance of tribal Manchu culture, the arming and peaceful coexistence with nomads, and more. The notion of restoring the Qing Emperor to the throne is maintained, but not possible until after the Japanese-American War. The Imperial Japanese Army considers the risk of losing the territory high, and by arming and maintaining good relations with the nomads, they believe they will have a powerful ally in the future. Long-term plans for the region include annexation and rural settlement. Certain vanguard Japanese families are brought in to expropriate agricultural land. It is agreed, though, that friendly relations with the nomads will be possible, even including the shared use of land. In the meantime, though, many Chinese suffer.
In the cities of Manchuria, Chinese are openly discriminated against by the Manchukuo government; many leave for the south. Anti-Bolshevik Europeans are permitted to remain, but a lot of the main infrastructure is expropriated by Japanese corporations with government and yakuza ties. This includes railways, medical facilties, farms, and more. Churches, synagogues, and smaller businesses remain. Many Japanese businessmen move into the cities, too.
A similar situation takes place in the Amur region of Siberia, although the White Russian military forces are permitted autonomy and control of certain districts. Vladivostok undergoes a total Japanese occupation, however, as does all of Sakhalin; this is subject to strong criticism from some Whites. However, because the Japanese are providing extensive military resources, this is mostly kept quiet. There are fears, though, that the Japanese intend to annex the region. Japanese settlement is held off, except in Vladivostok, where a great deal of infrastructure falls into Japanese hands, and in Sakhalin. The Whites under Grigori Semenov are conducting a war against the Bolsheviks in the region of eastern Mongolia and the Transbaikal, with some third-party swing in the form of the Bloody Baron's "empire," which also receives military support from Japan.
Vladivostok, Sakhalin, and Kamchatka have Japanese governors. The Japanese government insists that, until the Bolshevik threat can be eliminated, they need to maintain control of these territories so that the Whites can focus their attacks on the Bolsheviks. The White military commanders can only grumble at this. Certain Whites even revolt, but the White movement itself usually weeds these people out, seeing the bigger picture; there is no meaningful White Russian revolt until the Japanese-American War.
In the far north, in regions outside of the control of any of the major forces in the area, the Republic of Magadan is declared, centred on the city of Magadan. The state is not recognized by anyone. It claims large borders, most of which are certainly outside of its actual control, but which are often outside of the control of other countries, as well. It claims to represent the social well-being of the people of the region, regardless of their race, creed, or social standing. Its objective is to represent "the citizens of Magadan" in a time of great crisis.
The Japanese economy is booming during this period. Military expenditure and good returns on the colonies are very useful, and the standard of living is rising, both among the already wealthy and the poor. Trade with Europe, the Americas, Australia, New Zealand, colonies in South and Southeast Asia, and China is all on the rise. The liberal democracy is functioning, although the Emperor holds theoretically absolute power. There is some social concern about the areas outside of the Home Islands, where the domestic government has little to no sway; instead, the Imperial Japanese Army, which answers directly to the Emperor, is in charge. There is a growing rivalry between the Navy and the Army, as well, because naval commanders are becoming jealous of the amount of prestige and power that the Army is gaining, via its favourable position on mainland Asia. The Imperial Japanese Navy becomes very possessive of Taiwan and the Pacific territories, and it successfully lobbies the Japanese government for total mandate in coastal Chinese cities, like Shanghai.
Japan's domestic politics s shaped by three dichotomies: the rivalry between the largely autonomous military arms of the government, the Navy and the Army; the relatively non-partisan and amicable divide between Westernizing liberals (favouring capitalism, industrialization, and trade) and patriotic conservatives (advocating religiosity, rural values, and a simple and traditional way of life); and the divide between the police establishment (in particular, the Tokko) and the various revolutionary organizations preaching the Western ideologies of anarchism, Marxism, and socialism. There are some elements of Keynesian interventionism and a limited welfare state, which both liberals and conservatives tend to agree with; there are some elements of Japanese nationalism, which very favourably views a strong targeting of Christianity and "undue foreign influence." Japanese men and women are losing some of their inferiority complex with the West, and many explain that modernization does not mean Westernization, necessarily. Many anarchists, communists, and socialists, under sustained attack during Japan's own red scare, take advantage of government resettlement programs, going to Manchuria and Sakhalin (in Japanese, Kurafuto) to start their own communities. Most Japanese are enjoying the new prosperity, but it is not as if there are no victims at this time.
Relations between the British and Japanese empires are very favourable, as the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is still very strong. The British are conducting very favourable trade with the Japanese, they are appreciative of Japan's vehement opposition to Bolshevism, and the navies of the two nations are cooperating more and more. Although a minority of British legislators forewarns about cooperating with the yellow peril, there are a lot of favourable views of the Japanese as "the good Orientals." The foreign intervention in Russia, aiming to snuff out the Russian revolution before it could spread, had failed miserably, and the British viewed it as in their interests to keep down the Red threat - if this meant cooperating with the mot industrious, the most clever, and the most British nation in Asia, than so be it. With many British politicians viewing the Americans as a growing threat to the British Empire's dominant status in the world, the Japanese were appreciated as a counterweight to increasing American influence in the Far East.
Japanese-American relations are becoming more and more abysmal. The Japanese government is upset that, in the Treaty of Versailles, an anti-racist clause was not included, and they decry the situation of Japanese emigrants in the United States, as opposed to emigrants in Canada or elsewhere, who are doing relatively well. Considering the proposals made to the Republic of China in 1915 by the Japanese government, which would have reduced China into a protectorate more favourable to Japanese business than others; while these proposals to Nanking were vehemently opposed by Occidental powers, there remained certain elements within the Army and Tokyo that would have liked to see them about. This was a threat to the corporate elite of the United States. At the same time, Japanese markets were largely protected from American goods and investment, and there is a very real attitude among the American business elite that the Japanese business elite poses a threat. While capital in Europe and America was largely intertwined, with huge investments across borders and in the colonies, the Japanese business establishment - while intertwined through yakuza families, corrupt government, and each other - was an entity largely unto itself with Japan. Western capital could compete with itself, but also advance the interests of the whole; however, the Japanese were an other in the world of international capitalism. Japan was willing to trade, but only on its own terms. For those beginning to view the world in terms of their economic and class interests, and less in terms of nation-states, this was worrisome. Japan was a very competitive nation, with a very competitive yakuza-business elite - and they had differing objectives, as capitalists, than the capitalists of the West. In the United States, where corporate interests were particularly influential in government - having influenced the Spanish-American War, the conquest of Hawaii, and various commercial-military adventures around "the American Lake" - these things came to the fore. In Britain, on the other hand, some of these views were not quite as evident, even among the rich; the Japanese were seen as partners in the business of empire.
The average American was also in a position to be more easily manipulated into supporting a war on Japan. The West, in particular, was seeing the problem of "the yellow peril," and it was easy to manipulate popular opinion against the Japanese. The Chinese and the Koreans began to be largely portrayed as suffering from the cruel excesses of Japanese conquerors. The American media paid attention to everything wrong that the Japanese could have possibly done. Many opinions come out, equating the Japanese to the Mongols that terrorized Asia in past centuries, and portraying Japanese military commanders like Genghis Khan, or Emperor Taisho to Fu Manchu. The Japanese are portrayed as evil, calculating, bent on world domination, alien, and surreptitiously gaining the trust of the West to subvert it, even as they commit horrible crimes and arrive as immigrants. Points of contention among lobbyists include Japanese occupation of Korea and Manchuria, taking undeserved advantages from China, the insanity of Ungern von Sternberg, and even supposed cooperation with Bolsheviks.
The Japanese, for their part, are committing many atrocities, but not to the extent that is claimed. They are also giving limited support to the excessive regime of Roman Ungern von Sternberg, who has become the Buddhist-Christian "emperor" a fluid area in eastern Outer Mongolia. He grants weapons and power to just about anyone who swears fealty to him, and he gives his followers a common enemy: the Bolsheviks. The White Russians, and some Mongol and Chinese warlords, also suffer, however. It is a time of great rape, violence, mass murder, and more in the region. The Kempeitai are supplying Ungern von Sternberg with weaponry, informing that he can do anything, so long as he does not threaten areas under Japanese control, and so long as he sufficiently keeps others at bay.
Grigori Semenov's White Army comes into conflict with Ungern von Sternberg's forces occasionally; units often defect to Ungern von Sternberg, because they are promised more power. There is a drive to get those rogue back into the fold against Bolshevism. Ungern von Sternberg is mostly under sustained attacked from Bolsheviks and, to a lesser extent, Chinese republican forces.
The Japanese have amicable relations with other European powers, although there are certainly many Occidental positions concerned with their power. The Japanese are committed to anti-Bolshevism. In regards to China, relations are necessarily tense. Western support for China prevents the Japanese from bullying too much, but the Chinese cannot be too confrontational either.
Prelude to the Japanese-American War
On June 1, 1922, the American government, in the interests of restoring the sovereignty of China to the Chinese government, and in order to protect the people of China from further atrocities, concludes that it is only proper to declare war on the Empire of Japan, with the objective of forcing the Japanese into a bind where they are willing to withdraw from Shandong, Taiwan, and Manchuria by themselves. Many speak of putting down "an uppity Oriental nation", or "nipping the problem in the bud." American influence is expected to increase, and there is an implication that Japanese markets should open up to Westerners in the same way that Chinese markets already have.
The American military strategy is to take Taiwan (as a colony, potentially), the Pacific islands, Okinawa, and to launch simultaneous invasions of Kyushu and the Kanto plain, in order to quickly take out the Japanese government. There is also to be a seizure of the Kurils in the north. It should be a quick and easy victory; the American top military brass is aware of the Russo-Japanese War, but they believe that the incompetence of the tsarists was the source of European catastrophe there.
Anglo-American relations immediately take a hit. It is implied, as in the Russo-Japanese War, that the British will enter the war on the side of Japan if anyone else joins in on the side of the Americans. American capital suffers from increased tariffs in British realms.
At this time, the territorial situation in East Asia is as follows: the Japanese control their Home Islands, the Kurils, and Okinawa. Sakhalin has also been incorporated as a full prefecture, named Kurafuto - it is, however, temporarily under a military governor. Korea is a special territory of Japan - it is under control of the domestic government, and is policed by the oppressive Tokko, which seeks to prevent Korean independence movements as well as revolutionary organizations across the Home Islands and Korea. Taiwan and the Pacific Mandate are considered colonies, and are under Navy rule; things are generally less oppressive for the local people there than in other areas, because the Imperial Japanese Navy is a little bit more enlightened. The Navy builds infrastructure, and allows limited local democratic government in Taiwan. So long as people do not rebel, they are allowed a measure of freedom.
Manchuria has a 'transitional government', under actual Army control. The Kempeitai are operating widely. Much of Transbaikal is under White Russian control, under the leadership of Grigori Semenov, with Japanese Army units embedded and actually commanding things. The Magadan Republic has little control over its territory, and is seeing little interest by anyone else. Kamchatka has a military governor, but remains legally Russian.
China's north is increasingly under warlord control - including Ungern von Sternberg, who has managed to remain in power, despite the chaos of his realm, and has established a capital or base-of-operations at Urga. The south, around Nanking, maintains its sovereignty as best as it can. Business continues as usual in the European concessions on the coast. Tibet has established a degree of independence, and regions of East Turkestan are under Bolshevik control. The Kempeitai and, to a lesser extent, the Tokeitai are operating in China, as well as the foreign services of other countries.
THE WAR BEGINS...