In my new TL, Napoleon wins ... What happens next? (Maps included)

[Saramello]

Every now and then I think up a new Napoleon victory scenario with a little more knowledge then before, and a different goal. This time I wanted to get Napoleon’s maximum (and extremely generous) somewhat-plausible victory based on avoiding his worst mistakes and making some good ones, and setting them up as the British equivalent in the 19th Century.

There are 4 main changes:
1. Prussia dismantled after 4th Coalition. = No treacherous ally.
2. The Continental System is more a trade league than outright embargo. = Better economy and happier allies.
3. No Peninsular War = Napoleon keeps ally and 200k soldiers alive.
4. Less costly Russian invasion = Grand Armee survives and Napoleon keeps land above.

Short version of lore: Napoleon dismantled Prussia after the 4th Coalition, but salvaged the Franco-Russian alliance by promising support against the Ottomans. In 1808, Austria launched the 5th coalition while Napoleon was occupied in the Balkans, but was badly defeated. The Ottomans collapsed from invasions from France, Russia, and Egypt and was partitioned. Conflict over the Duchy of Warsaw led to Russia breaking the alliance and starting the 6th coalition in 1812. Napoleon defeated Russia and occupied Vilnius. The 7th coalition was launched in 1815, but was a disaster and ended in 100 Days. The ensuing Treaty of Vienna marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars.

Additional details:
1. Balkans were divided according to the Greek Plan. Hilariously Ironic after France drove Russia out.
2. Napoleon seized Brabant to punish Louis' insubordination (and to make France have a perfect Rhine Border).
3. Russia's humiliation meant the Decembrist revolt was a full-scale civil war. While the revolt was crushed, Russia lost Finland and the Caucuses in the chaos.
4. Napoleon II still dies of TB and Napoleon III still inherits the throne, because he's just a fun guy to speculate with.

Full version and lore found here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/11u1l7h

So with all that said, what happens from here? I want to make more maps but am out of ideas. What plausible butterfly effects happen from this?

Bonus points given for:
1. How can the U.K. be weakend so they are more like IRL France than a direct equal power?
2. Diverging background and outcomes of 19th century events that happened IRL such as the Concert of Europe, 1848 Revolutions, Sepoy Mutiny, the Taiping/Chinese rebellions, US Civil War, Meiji Restoration, and Scramble for Africa (and others)?
3. How (not when) do the Balkans disintegrate? And into what pieces?
4. How does the Independence Movements in the Americas turn out with a stronger Spain?

Also, here's a link to a blank template if you want to show your ideas through visuals:

https://imgur.com/a/QbIxyKN

 

[WheelyWheelyLegsNoFeely]

1. How can the U.K. be weakend so they are more like IRL France than a direct equal power?

Maybe losing the Napoleonic Wars and a worse Regency period push Britain over the edge into republican revolution, weakening British power as they are forced to deal with internal strife. They might also end up losing Canada to the United States, although I could see them holding on to their other colonies, with this leading to Britain taking a similar role to OTL France in terms of geopolitics.

2. Diverging background and outcomes of 19th century events that happened IRL such as the Concert of Europe, 1848 Revolutions, Sepoy Mutiny, the Taiping/Chinese rebellions, US Civil War, Meiji Restoration, and Scramble for Africa (and others)?

An Indian rebellion like the Sepoy Mutiny would probably be much more successful with a weaker British Empire. Whether this leads to India remaining independent or falling under the influence of another European power depends on what else happens. If Canada goes to the U.S., expect this to have a profound impact on the balance between free and slave states, which in turn would impact how the Civil War goes. Insofar as there's still a Scramble for Africa, it will probably be a series of negotiations between the French and British since most of continental Europe is made up of French client states. Perhaps this leads to more native states surviving due to there not being a direct equivalent to the Berlin Conference.

 

[Enigmajones]

Did Napoleon plan to recreate the Byzantine Empire? I know Catherine the Great's Greek Plan, but Ive never heard of Napoleon planning it. If anything I remember him planning to establish a Jewish homeland, but after the failure in Egypt and the Levant he abandoned the concept.

 

[EWHM]

I suspect that a Napoleonic Europe with a clear hegemon is going to have huge implications for US politics. My guess is that the US will realize it's holiday from having to maintain a significant military is over, and its statesmen will realize that it can't afford ruinous levels of national division. This has a better chance than OTL of a peaceful ending to slavery. Let's see:

The US maintaining a stronger military means that the Nat Turner rebellion is butterflied away, and the Virginia movement to end slavery isn't derailed. As a result, Virginia ceases to be a slave state in practice around 1850 or so. Delaware goes with a buyout plan that they couldn't get to work OTL. The deep South sees that a military solution isn't in the cards and accordingly turns down its rhetoric compared to OTL. It's possible that the Mexican American war is butterflied away.

 

[Concerned Brazilian]

View attachment 826995

Every now and then I think up a new Napoleon victory scenario with a little more knowledge then before, and a different goal. This time I wanted to get Napoleon’s maximum (and extremely generous) somewhat-plausible victory based on avoiding his worst mistakes and making some good ones, and setting them up as the British equivalent in the 19th Century.

There are 4 main changes:
1. Prussia dismantled after 4th Coalition. = No treacherous ally.
2. The Continental System is more a trade league than outright embargo. = Better economy and happier allies.
3. No Peninsular War = Napoleon keeps ally and 200k soldiers alive.
4. Less costly Russian invasion = Grand Armee survives and Napoleon keeps land above.

Short version of lore: Napoleon dismantled Prussia after the 4th Coalition, but salvaged the Franco-Russian alliance by promising support against the Ottomans. In 1808, Austria launched the 5th coalition while Napoleon was occupied in the Balkans, but was badly defeated. The Ottomans collapsed from invasions from France, Russia, and Egypt and was partitioned. Conflict over the Duchy of Warsaw led to Russia breaking the alliance and starting the 6th coalition in 1812. Napoleon defeated Russia and occupied Vilnius. The 7th coalition was launched in 1815, but was a disaster and ended in 100 Days. The ensuing Treaty of Vienna marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars.

Additional details:
1. Balkans were divided according to the Greek Plan. Hilariously Ironic after France drove Russia out.
2. Napoleon seized Brabant to punish Louis' insubordination (and to make France have a perfect Rhine Border).
3. Russia's humiliation meant the Decembrist revolt was a full-scale civil war. While the revolt was crushed, Russia lost Finland and the Caucuses in the chaos.
4. Napoleon II still dies of TB and Napoleon III still inherits the throne, because he's just a fun guy to speculate with.

Full version and lore found here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/11u1l7h

So with all that said, what happens from here? I want to make more maps but am out of ideas. What plausible butterfly effects happen from this?

Bonus points given for:
1. How can the U.K. be weakend so they are more like IRL France than a direct equal power?
2. Diverging background and outcomes of 19th century events that happened IRL such as the Concert of Europe, 1848 Revolutions, Sepoy Mutiny, the Taiping/Chinese rebellions, US Civil War, Meiji Restoration, and Scramble for Africa (and others)?
3. How (not when) do the Balkans disintegrate? And into what pieces?
4. How does the Independence Movements in the Americas turn out with a stronger Spain?

Also, here's a link to a blank template if you want to show your ideas through visuals:

https://imgur.com/a/QbIxyKN

Excellent post. France would probably take a softer approach towards China and India.

 

[Enigmajones]

Also wasn’t Warsaw in a personal Union with the Kings of Saxony? If so I don’t know if they would join as a United Germany. I assume that could cause some trouble down the line.

 

[athgtq16129]

Did Napoleon plan to recreate the Byzantine Empire? I know Catherine the Great's Greek Plan, but Ive never heard of Napoleon planning it. If anything I remember him planning to establish a Jewish homeland, but after the failure in Egypt and the Levant he abandoned the concept.

Quoting this post for posterity, I also really want to know that.

 

[Saramello]

Quoting this post for posterity, I also really want to know that.

Did Napoleon plan to recreate the Byzantine Empire? I know Catherine the Great's Greek Plan, but Ive never heard of Napoleon planning it. If anything I remember him planning to establish a Jewish homeland, but after the failure in Egypt and the Levant he abandoned the concept.

He didn't. I wanted Napoleon to own the Balkans but had absolutely no idea how he would divide it. So I used Catherine's idea. The land was conquered during the Franco-Russian Alliance, it was Alexander's idea to use his beloved grandmother's Greek Plan. After Alexander fell out with Napoleon over Warsaw, Napoleon seized the territory and kept the borders.

 

[Saramello]

Also wasn’t Warsaw in a personal Union with the Kings of Saxony? If so I don’t know if they would join as a United Germany. I assume that could cause some trouble down the line.

Germany isn't united. It's still the confederation of the Rhine.

Probably still a PU but upon the Saxon King's death the Polish Assembly will probably elect Napoleon's famous Polish General as the next king.

 

[Saramello]

Excellent post. France would probably take a softer approach towards China and India.

Thanks!

That's what I'm thinking too. France's colonies are their European holdings.

 

[Saramello]

Some ideas I'm toying with, that I want feedback on.

1. As Napoleon is never defeated, the British can never send their navy and army to the US during the war of 1812 like they did in 18148 IRL, for fear of French incursion. Without British backup, Canada eventually falls, and the British are forced to accept it but issues crippling trade restrictions (to the outrage of both peoples).
2. With Europe secured, Napoleon launches a massive invasion of Hispaniola, seizing the island and re-enslaving the inhabitants so the sugar trade can fund his national and international projects and military. (I'm so sorry Haiti). Also, give me a good excuse for Spain to let Napoleon keep the Dominican half of the Island (maybe in exchange for aide crushing some LA revolts?)
3. Which Spanish American Independence Movements fail with a less devastated Spain? The British still would still offer aide to rebels. Likely more-so than IRL considering the Franco-Spanish alliance.
4. The US still wars with whoever owns Mexico in the 1840s and seizes everything Polk wanted IRL to balance free and slave states.
5. Civil war still happens, but since the US is more hostile to the British (no "era of good feeling" after 1812), and despite the ongoing Sepoy Mutiny and MASSIVE popular disaproval, the British help the CSA win Independence.
6. Diverting troops and resources to the US Civil War and to crush low-level anti-slave revolts at home, the British can't sufficiently aide the British East India Co. in fighting the Sepoy Mutiny, which has been HEAVILY funded by Napoleon III (yes that one, fucking love him.