In His Own Right

[DMA]

Germany always wanted the war more than did Austria, but would Austria persue such negotiations?

Ah! But which war? Germany wasn't pleased with what Austria was doing. And it certainly never wanted a war on two fronts. Now Austria's mucking around with Serbia would bring that. This was something Germany was not at all happy about & Germany did attempt overtunes of peace towards Russia.

 

[LacheyS]

Who has said that, in TTL, Roosevelt will negotiate a successful peace between Russia and Japan?

 

[DMA]

Who has said that, in TTL, Roosevelt will negotiate a successful peace between Russia and Japan?

So we've spoken too soon eh?

 

[LacheyS]

So we've spoken too soon eh?

I am just trying to work out if peace can be avoided.

 

[DMA]

I am just trying to work out if peace can be avoided.

Excellent!

And I've got to say you're doing very well with your timeline. Lots of "global" influences going on as well as the more local things. It's a nice mix that's reflective of reality.

 

[LacheyS]

Thanks, DMA! And here, just for you, the Portsmouth Peace Conference. It very nearly failed in OTL, and I have just given it a little push :


The Russo-Japanese War
Chapter 27 (abridged)
by Theodore Roosevelt Jr
Published by Harvard University Press, 1922


The orders from the Japanese Prime Minister, Viscount Katsuro, reached the Embassy in Washington, on 4 June, 1905. The naval attaché, Commander Takashita, who had previously liaised with the President in regard to admission of Japanese students to Annapolis Naval College, was chosen to convey the sympathy of the government in Tokyo to a negotiated peace.

The President’s note to the Tsar offering his personal services as a mediator arrived in the midst of a crisis in St Petersburg. German Chief of Staff Schlieffen had made an assessment that Russia’s military was on the verge of collapse. The unrest in Odessa had turned into widespread rioting and the massacre of thousands. Two battleships, the Potemkin and George the Conqueror, had mutinied. The leader of the union movement, Milyukov, was preparing for a general strike.

In the United States, leading Jews were concerned about the growing pogrom of their nation (marginally worse in OTL due to the loss of the immigration valve). Leading New York banker, Jacob Schiff, had already offered the Tokyo government another loan, driven by his desire to see the Russian Empire destroyed. In England, forces were gathering to demand British intervention. The French attaché told the Russian Chief of Staff, General Sakharov, that “if that happens, there will be nothing more for you to do but kneel down and beg for mercy.” Russia was left with no choice but to seek peace.

Prior to the opening of talks on Wednesday, 9 August, President Roosevelt and Japanese Foreign Minister Jutaro Komura met in secret. Komura was a Harvard graduate, like the President. The two school friends agreed that it was in their mutual interest that Japan establish suzerainty over Korea and for Russia to be removed from Manchuria. Komura was the head of the Japanese delegation at the talks. However, the Tsar had enormous difficulty convincing anyone to represent him. The task eventually fell to Sergius Witte, the former Finance Minister who the Tsar had done his best to disgrace over past disagreements.

Formal demands were made by the Japanese on 10 August and the Russians responded on 12 August, agreeing to two of the twelve demands, agreeing to negotiate on a further six, but refusing outright to consider four contested terms. These were:

1. Japan wanted to keep all Russian warships interred in neutral ports.
2. Japan wanted limitations on the size of the naval force Russia could maintain in the Far East.
3. Japan wanted Russia to pay its costs of war.
4. Japan demanded the full cession of Sakhalin Island.

Roosevelt suggested that the disagreements be left to last and that the issues of control of Manchuria and Korea, on which parties were willing to negotiate be dealt with immediately.

On 14 August, the two parties agreed that Korea would be ceded to Japan and that both forces would demilitarize Manchuria. Negotiations appeared to be going well. The only hiccup was the meeting between Ambassador Witte and Jacob Schiff, in which Witte suggested that the restrictive anti-Jewish laws in Russia were for the betterment of Jews. Schiff was outraged and immediately began arranging further finance for the Japanese to continue the war.

The fourth formal session, 15 August, saw agreement over an open door policy for Manchuria and the transfer of the leases at Port Arthur to the Japanese. The status of Sakhalin was deferred. However, the talks bogged down on the topic of indemnities. The Tsar had instructed Witte that he would not surrender one piece of Russian soil and would not pay one ruble. Komura knew the Japanese people would be outraged if Russia was not made to pay for her provocation. Again, the difficult issues were deferred.

On 16 August, fishing rights were agreed upon. There was full agreement of the transfer of the South Manchurian Railway to Japan and a prohibition on its use for military activities. The evening was a grand social occasion. But each of the diplomats knew that the four outstanding issues lay ahead. Messages had been dispatched to the individual capitals. Witte recommended to the Tsar the surrender of Sakhalin, arguing that the Japanese already had control and that costs might be avoided. Komura was likewise thinking, proposing to give up demands on interned ships and fleet limitations.

18 August was the day of the Komura compromise. The Japanese team offered to return half of Sakhalin to Russia and drop all further demands, in return for an indemnity of ¥1,200 million (£105.8 million or US$515.3 million). Note: in 2005 terms (OTL), this equates to roughly US$13.2 billion. Both parties agreed to consult further with their respective governments, as President Roosevelt moved to contact both governments directly as well. He suggested to the Tsar, via his ambassador in St Petersburg, George Meyer, that he could halve the indemnity if Russia was prepared to concede the south of Sakhalin island. However, the Tsar, faced with his own internal crisis, refused to budge an inch (in OTL, he agreed to cede the south of Sakhalin but no more, and withdrew on that a few days later but peace was concluded before the news reached Portsmouth).

On August 15, the government had arrested union leader, Milyukov. The Russian Minister of the Interior, Alexander Bulygin, resigned in protest and called for strikes to bring down the Government. Violent and bloody riots erupted in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Bialystok, north of Brest-Litovsk, victim of recent pogrom attacks, was in uproar and the unrest had spread to Warsaw. In the Far East, units were disbanding and returning home in protest over conditions. On Tuesday, August 22, the Tsar sent a telegram rejecting all compromises and calling Witte home. He reluctantly obeyed. (Each of these events are a few days ahead of OTL schedule).

 

[LacheyS]

Just a running note:

Secretary of State John Hay has shuffled off this mortal coil to meet his Maker on 1 July, 1905. Elihu Root, popular in this timeline for proposing a solution to the Philippines War, is promoted into the spot with an even greater credibility than in OTL. In TTL, he is keen to find a way to integrate the Northern Philippines, San Domingo and Puerto Rico into the US political and economic system and to assist their development. He is also keen to determine whether Japanese migration can continue unabated (many educated Japanese speak English quite effectively, thus bypassing the immigration restrictions), wants to resolve the border on Alaska and establish a framework for promoting global peace.

Secretary of the Navy Paul Morton has also been removed and replaced by a professional civil servant, Charles J Bonaparte. He is a grandson of Jerome, King of Westphalia (1807-1813) and Marshal of France, cousin of Napoleon III and grand-nephew of THE Napoleon. His driving ambition is to completely end appointments based on political allegiance, having served as Chairman of the National Civil Service Reform League.

 

[Wendell]

Ah! But which war? Germany wasn't pleased with what Austria was doing. And it certainly never wanted a war on two fronts. Now Austria's mucking around with Serbia would bring that. This was something Germany was not at all happy about & Germany did attempt overtunes of peace towards Russia.

The Germans did not want a war on two front, but, arguably, their approach worsened things instead of improved them. It was German wrangling that delayed the start of the war.

 

[DMA]

The Germans did not want a war on two front, but, arguably, their approach worsened things instead of improved them. It was German wrangling that delayed the start of the war.

Granted, but arguably the attempts at "German wrangling" were efforts, even if half-hearted, to stop the war spreading from a spat between Serbia & Austria to a full blooded war involving most if not all of Europe.

Even at the last minute, in a little known fact, the Germans & Russians agreed to stop mobilising. Alas the Germans sent their orders out via telegraph/telephone, where the Russian army still used couriers, meaning the Russian orders didn't reach their units in time before the Germans thought the Russians were planning a trap, & so they went back to mobilising again.

 

[Wendell]

Granted, but arguably the attempts at "German wrangling" were efforts, even if half-hearted, to stop the war spreading from a spat between Serbia & Austria to a full blooded war involving most if not all of Europe.

Even at the last minute, in a little known fact, the Germans & Russians agreed to stop mobilising. Alas the Germans sent their orders out via telegraph/telephone, where the Russian army still used couriers, meaning the Russian orders didn't reach their units in time before the Germans thought the Russians were planning a trap, & so they went back to mobilising again.

Timing was everything...

 

[DMA]

Timing was everything...

Indeed, which is why the Germans feared a trap coming from the Russians.

 

[Wendell]

Indeed, which is why the Germans feared a trap coming from the Russians.

Timing was bad from the start. Maybe if Austria did not wait a month to strike at Serbia...

 

[DMA]

Timing was bad from the start. Maybe if Austria did not wait a month to strike at Serbia...

Well, from what I understand, Germany didn't want Austria to strike Serbia at all, because the Germans well knew that that would bring Russia into the mess, followed shortly thereafter by France. That's Germany's nightmare war scenario & they knew it.

In fact if anyone was keen for a war involving Germany, it was France. The Germans weren't. Sure there were tensions in Europe, but if war could be avoided by most countries then they'd avoid it. France, on the other hand, wanted revenge for the 1870-1 disaster. Britain would have been happy to keep out of a major war in Europe. I'd say Italy wouldn't want a war either. Russia wasn't overly keen on the idea as a whole, and nor was Germany.

 

[LacheyS]

The Russo-Japanese War
Chapter 28 (abridged)
by Theodore Roosevelt Jr
Published by Harvard University Press, 1922

As it became clear that negotiations in Portsmouth had failed, Japan had dispatched three thousand troops from Port Arthur toward Vladivostok on 24 August. A naval flotilla, led by the Mikasa and containing twenty-three other vessels, carried three thousand Japanese troops. The battle for Russia’s eastern jewel would, in the view of Admiral Togo Heihachiro, bring the peace which his government had long sought.

The failure of Portsmouth had placed enormous stress on the Japanese government. Admittedly, it had prevented the crowds from demanding the dismissal of the Government and had poured water on the flames of ultra-nationalism which had threatened to engulf the genro administration of Viscount Katsura. Some of the major papers even praised the failure of negotiations, arguing that Foreign Minister Komura had protected the honour of Japan. However, the finances of the nation were distinctly unhealthy, and the best experts were estimating that Japan had until April to finalise the war in its favour. After that, its debt would produce an economic panic that could engulf not only Japan, but spread beyond.

In Russia, the sense of crisis was palpable. Demonstrations were growing by the day and before the end of August, the Standart, the imperial yacht, was being prepared in St Petersburg harbour for the evacuation of the Imperial family to Denmark. (It is generally believed that the Tsar was unaware of this at the time, as his sense of duty would not have allowed him to have ordered this. The family’s annual trip on the Baltic was near at hand, but the provisions being stored on board were for more than a two-week pleasure cruise.) The universities and schools were shutting down due to student strikes and raids were being made by revolutionaries on the prisons.

When the Japanese fleet arrived in Vladivostok on 28 August, they reached a city in anarchy. The streets were littered with debris as panicked Russians had gathered their belongings and fled. A rancid stench filled the air, source unknown, and the local garrison was fighting in the streets against their own citizens. The two remaining Russian cruisers ran up the white flag as soon as the fleet was sighted. The Japanese put ashore virtually without resistance, the hill-top fortress the target of shelling on the first day and the local garrison surrendering the following. Reconnaissance had advised that there was 5,000 Russian troops rushing through the Ussuri Valley toward the city, but, with a further five thousand Japanese troops on their way, and due to arrive in six days, it appeared as though the city would be held and the Japanese strategists began to turn their attention toward a potential assault upon Khabarovsk.

When news of the fall of Vladivostok reached the heartland of the Empire on September 13-14, the long-threatened general strike broke out in Moscow. Cossacks and demonstrators fought outside the Kremlin, the latter quickly arming themselves and becoming violent mobs. The Tsar was concerned, but assured that the Okhrana had the violence in check, the Tsar and his family left for their annual Baltic cruise (the Standart, regrettably, did not have a radio). By 23 September, while the Imperial family played frivolously, the violence had spread throughout most of the major cities of the Empire. The railways came to a grinding halt. Communications ceased to operate, except where being used by strikers and revolutionaries. Hospitals were closed. Russia was paralyzed.

When Witte arrived back from Portsmouth on 22 September, he was horrified. He immediately called a meeting of top rank officials. As the violence and troubles spread, talks continued at the Winter Palace with union leaders and zemstvo groups present. On 25 September, Witte called upon Grand Duke Nicholas, titular commander of the Imperial armies. He outlined to the Grand Duke how the Tsar had sabotaged reform time and again, placing Russia in this crisis. He demonstrated how the Tsar had failed the nation in canceling peace talks, meaning the loss of Vladivostok. And he issued the demands upon which the meeting had agreed.

Late in the evening of 28 September, a naval vessel bearing the two pulled aside the Standart on the Baltic Sea. The Tsar greeted his military chief and the ambassador with alarm and took them into his private study. There, among the dark leather and simple wooden furniture, they presented him with a letter for his signature. It announced his abdication and renounced any claim for all his descendants. The Emperor was clearly shaken and angry, but it soon became clear these men had not arrived to negotiate or argue – merely to enforce a fait accompli. There are rumours that the Grand Duke pulled him weapon during discussions, but this has never been confirmed. For Witte, the moment was sweet as he finally revenged himself for the numerous disgraces the Tsar had visited upon him. For the Grand Duke, he believed it the only chance of saving the Empire.

The last day of September marked a new era in Russian history. Tsar Michael II signed a letter to Emperor Meiji, offering Sakhalin and reparations in return for peace. He also signed a new constitution for Russia, establishing Witte as caretaker Prime Minister until elections could be held. On 4 October, the telegram from Tokyo confirmed that the Russo-Japanese War was over.

 

[LacheyS]

THE CONSTITUTION ACT Of RUSSIA
1905

ARTICLE ONE – The Basic Rights of Citizens

1. All citizens, irrespective of sex, religion or nationality, are equal before the law. All class distinctions and all limitations of personal and property rights of Poles, Jews and all other groups of the population, are hereby repealed.

2. Every citizen is guaranteed freedom of conscience and religion. No persecution for religious beliefs or convictions, or for change or refusal to change religious belief, can be allowed. The celebration of religious and church ceremonies and the spread of beliefs is free, provided these activities do not include any transgressions contrary to the criminal code of law. The Orthodox Church is hereby disestablished.

3. Any person who wishes to express his thoughts orally or in writing has the right to publish and spread them through printing or any other media. Censorship, both general and special, regardless of its form or name, is hereby abolished and cannot be reinstated. However, incitement to perform criminal acts will be regarded as an offence to be tried before the courts under the criminal code of law.

4. All citizens have the right to organise public or private meetings, in dwelling as well as in the open air, to examine any problem they wish.

5. All citizens have the right to organise unions or societies without needing permission to organise the same.

6. The right to petition representatives and the Tsar is hereby extended to all citizens and organisations, such as trade unions and community gatherings and so forth.

7. The person and home of every individual is inviolable. Entry into a private dwelling, search, seizure and opening of private correspondence is allowed only in cases permitted by law and on order of the court. Individuals detained where courts are located must be brought before a court within twenty-four hours; in other localities, not later than seven days. Any detention undertaken without proper grounds or without court representation at the earliest available time is illegal and shall give the detained person the right to compensation by the state.

8. No person may be subjected to persecution or punishment except on the basis of law by authorities in a legally constituted court. All extraordinary courts are hereby abolished.

9. Every citizen has freedom of movement and travel, both within the Empire and abroad. The passport system is hereby abolished.

10. All nations inhabiting the Empire are entitled to full civil and political equality, the right of cultural self-determination, the full freedom to use various languages and dialects in public, the freedom to found and maintain educational institutions to preserve their culture, the freedom to hold any meeting having as its aim the preservation and development of the language, literature and culture of their nationality.

11. The Russian language shall be the official language of the central administration, army and fleet. The use of local languages is permitted alongside the official language in state and public institutions or educational establishments supported by the state or organs of local self-government or in any other institution where competence allows the same. The population shall be guaranteed education in Russian and in their native language elementary schools.

ARTICLE II – Government Apparatus

12. The system of governance of the Russian Empire will be determined solely by the Constitution.

13. There shall be a chamber of Representatives of the people, elected by a general, equal, direct and secret ballot of all citizens, irrespective of their religion, nationality or sex. There shall be a second chamber of representatives of the local organs of self-government, organised on the basis of a general vote as described and spread throughout all of Russia.

14. The chambers are jointly empowered in the realisation of legislative power, in determination of all government revenues and expenditures and in control of the legality and expedience of all actions by higher and lower organs of administration.

15. Any decision, decree, ukaz, order or similar act not based on the legislative measure of national representation, regardless of its name, source or location, shall not have the force of law.

16. A government inventory, which should include all revenues and expenditures of the state, should be established by law, every year. No taxes, dues, and collections for the state, as well as state loans, can be established other than by legislation.

17. All members of national representative assemblies should have the right of legislative initiative.

18. All Ministers shall be members of the national assembly and responsible to the representatives of the national assembly, and the latter have the right of questioning and interpellation.

ARTICLE III - Local Self-Government and Autonomy

19. Local self-government is hereby extended throughout the entire Russian state.

20. Representatives in the organs of local self-government, being close to the population by virtue of the organisation of small self-governing units, shall be elected on the basis of universal, equal, direct, and secret ballot, regardless of sex, religion, and nationality, while the assemblies of higher self-governing units can be selected by lower assemblies. Guberniia zemstvos have the right to enter into temporary or permanent unions among themselves.

21. The competence of the organs of local self-government shall include the entire field of local administration, including police, but excluding only those branches of administration which, under the condition of present state life, must be located in the hands of the central government. Organs of local self-government shall receive appropriate partial support from sources which now go to the budget of the central government.

22. The activity of representatives of the central government in relation to organs of local self-government shall be limited to supervision of the legality of acts; where there is dispute or doubt, the final decision is reserved for the courts.

23. Following the establishment of rights of civil freedom and proper representation with constitutional rights for the entire Russian state, there shall be opened a legal way within the framework of state legislation for the establishment of local autonomy and oblast representative assemblies, with the right to participate in the realisation of legislative authority on familiar matters in accordance with the needs of the population.

24. There shall be established, in the Polish kingdom, an autonomous administration with a seim elected on the same basis as the state parliament of Russia, preserving its state unity and participation in the central parliament on an equal footing with other parts of the Empire. Frontiers between the Polish kingdom and neighbouring guberniias shall be established in accordance with the desires of the native and local populations. In the Polish kingdom there shall be instituted national guarantees of civil liberty and of the rights of nationalities to cultural self-determination as well as protection of the rights of minorities.

25. The Constitution of Finland, which safeguards its special state status, is hereby fully reinstated. All future measures common to the Empire and the Grand Duchy of Finland should be solved by an agreement between the legislative branches of the Empire and the Grand Duchy.

ARTICLE IV – The Courts

26. All departures from the bases of the Judicial Statute of November 20 I864, which separated judicial from administrative power (non-removability of judges, independence of courts, and equality of all citizens before the law) as well as the introduction of subsequent new laws are abolished. Courts with class representatives are abolished. Matters of volost' justice are subject to the competence of an elected justice of the peace. The volost' and the institution of zemskii nachal'niks are abolished. The demand for property qualifications to perform the functions of a Justice of the Peace as well as that of a sworn deputy is abolished. The principle of the unity of appellate court is re-established. Advocacy is organised on the basis of true self-administration.

27. In addition to this, the aim of penal policy shall consist of:
(a) unconditional abolition forever of the death penalty;
(b) introduction of conditional conviction;
(c) establishment of protection during preliminary investigation; and
(d) introduction into court proceedings of controvertible rule.

28. There shall be a full examination of the criminal code, and any decrees contrary to the foundations of political freedom are hereby annulled.

ARTICLE V - Financial and Economic Policy

29. The redemption payments system is hereby repealed.

30. Direct taxes should be favoured over indirect taxes and, where decreases in taxation may occur, the indirect taxes shall be lowered first. The government should seek to repeal whenever possible any indirect tax.

31. Direct taxes on income, inheritance and property shall be progressive.

32. In conformity with the condition of individual industries, there should be a lowering of custom duties in order to cut down the cost of products of general consumption and to improve the technical level of industry and agriculture.
33. Saving banks shall be established for the development of small loans.

ARTICLE VI - Agrarian Legislation

34. There shall be an increase of arable land for that part of the population which works the land with its own labour, namely landless and poor peasants - as well as other peasants - by state, princely, cabinet, monastery, and private estates at the state's expense, with private owners being compensated at a fair (not market) price for their land.

35. Expropriated land shall be transferred to a state and land reserve. Rules by which the land from this reserve should be given to a needy population (ownership, or personal or communal use, and so forth) should be determined in accordance with peculiarities of land ownership and land usage in different parts of Russia.

36. There shall be broad organisation of government aid for migration, resettlement, and arrangement of the economic life of peasants. There shall be reorganisation of the Boundary Office, termination of surveying, and introduction of other measures for bringing prosperity to the rural population and improving the rural economy.

37. Legislation dealing with the lease relationship shall be promulgated in order to protect the right of tenants and the right to re-lease.

38. The existing rules on hiring of agricultural workers is hereby repealed and labour legislation extended to agricultural workers.

ARTICLE VII - Labour Legislation

39. There shall be freedom of labour unions and assemblies.

40. The right to strike is granted. Punishment for violations of law which occur during or as a result of strikes shall be determined in general terms and under no circumstances should be extreme.

41. Labour legislation and independent inspection of labour shall be extended to all forms of hired labour; there shall be participation of workers' elected representatives in inspections aimed at safeguarding the interests of workers.

42. An eight-hour working day is hereby established. Where possible, this must be immediately realised everywhere, and systematically introduced in other industries in accordance with law. Night work and overtime work is hereby prohibited except where technically and socially indispensable.

43. Where female persons or children are employed in labour, there must be measure established to protect them. The same shall apply for male labour when operating in dangerous enterprises.

45. There is hereby established arbitration offices, consisting of an equal number of representatives of labour and capital, to regulate all matters of labour which are not regulated by labour legislation, and solving of disputes which may arise between workers and employers.

46. There shall be established an obligatory state medical care (for a defined period) for all accident and work-connected illness compensations, which are to be contributed to by the employers in accordance with law.

47. All persons of old age or suffering disability of mind or body shall be granted allowances to enable them to make a living by their own work.

48. Where there are violations of laws dealing with the protection of labour, it shall be a criminal offence.

ARTICLE VIII - Education

49. All restrictions on school admission based upon sex, origin or religion are hereby abolished and declared illegal.

50. It is hereby established that any person or group of persons is free of their own initiative to found and organise any sort of educational institution. However, there shall be established an office to liaison between various institutions, for which institutions shall be required to pay a fee, to organise transfer of students between one school and another.

51. All universities and institutions of higher learning shall have complete autonomy and freedom of instruction. Students are free to organise themselves to represent their views to the authorities of such institutions.

52. The government is compelled to expand the number of institutions of secondary learning in accordance with reasonable public need and local public institutions should have the right to participate in the formulation of the education curriculum.

53. Elementary education shall be free, universal and obligatory, with material aid extending to those who require it to ensure attendance.

54. Local self-government shall be responsible for the organisation of institutions for the education of the adult population, such as public libraries and public universities.

 

[G.Bone]

That's...rather specific reforms...

I'm not too sure if the heavy Orthodox Church presence there will like being de-established. Furthermore, I don't think that the reforms will go for great lengths, considering that democracy is sort of a waifish thing in Russian history. Are you going to do a civil war in Russia from this point?

 

[Wendell]

Well, from what I understand, Germany didn't want Austria to strike Serbia at all, because the Germans well knew that that would bring Russia into the mess, followed shortly thereafter by France. That's Germany's nightmare war scenario & they knew it.

In fact if anyone was keen for a war involving Germany, it was France. The Germans weren't. Sure there were tensions in Europe, but if war could be avoided by most countries then they'd avoid it. France, on the other hand, wanted revenge for the 1870-1 disaster. Britain would have been happy to keep out of a major war in Europe. I'd say Italy wouldn't want a war either. Russia wasn't overly keen on the idea as a whole, and nor was Germany.

I disagree. I think the Germans were paranoid, and much of the General Staff wanted a war to show German power. The Possibility of Britain sitting out is reason enough for France NOT to want a war in my view. Poincare certainly did not desire a war with Germany.

 

[Wendell]

That constitution is far too radical...

 

[DMA]

I disagree. I think the Germans were paranoid, and much of the General Staff wanted a war to show German power.

Not in the context of the situation we're talking here. Fighting just France, sure, but Germany would have avoided war if it could if fighting both France & Russia at the same time. Otherwise, as I said earlier, they'd be facing their nightmare scenario of a war on two fronts. I don't think any of the German generals thought that victory was certain under such conditions, regardless of their plans.

The Possibility of Britain sitting out is reason enough for France NOT to want a war in my view. Poincare certainly did not desire a war with Germany.

Britain would have avoided war with Germany given a choice. Note that the only serious plans Britain had for a war in Europe involved war with France

France wanted revenge for 1870-1. Now fair enough, they may have avoided war if they could, but nevertheless they were paranoid far more so than Germany was. French military intelligence (now there's a real oxymoron) constantly said Germany's army was much larger than it was, which scared the Hell out of the politicans who then kept increasing the size of France's military. Then there was all the nonsense of Napoleonic elan, which oozed out of the French army, clearly indicating dreams of grandure. Oh no, France was wanting a war with Germany. I don't doubt it.

 

[Wendell]

Not in the context of the situation we're talking here. Fighting just France, sure, but Germany would have avoided war if it could if fighting both France & Russia at the same time. Otherwise, as I said earlier, they'd be facing their nightmare scenario of a war on two fronts. I don't think any of the German generals thought that victory was certain under such conditions, regardless of their plans.

I think the General Staff (wrongly) felt that Germany was on its last limb as a power, and would cease to exist within a few years, unless it was victorious in a major war. So, in their view, war was no certain win, but they felt Germany had a better change of greatness-or even existence-with a war, rather than without one.