In His Own Right

[eschaton]

Interesting TL.

I agree that Jews would still disproportionately find their way into America. While there were a great deal of Jewish peasants, generally the literacy rate for Jews was far higher than, say, Poles or Italians, due to the increased emphasis on reading the Torah as part of religious practice. I'd almost say literacy was required, but I don't know enough about the Jewish religion to say that for certain.

As an aside, I presume this only holds for male heads of housholds, not women and children? Female literacy was far lower at this point after all.

 

[1940LaSalle]

If Teddy could hang around for long enough, & reason why he couldn't considering cousin FDR did, it would certainly mean WWI would turn out differently.

Not at all: there wouldn't have been a war in Europe beginning in late July 1914. TR enjoyed enormous international prestige in the chancelleries of Europe. I maintain he could/would have offered mediation of the Austro-Serbian crisis, similar to his offer to mediate an end to the Russo-Japanese war, which would have avoided a war altogether.

All this is, of course, predicated on TR beating Wilson in 1912. I maintain he could have done so by either persuading Taft to accept a Supreme Court appointment earlier (the subject was broached in 1902, for example), or had Taft heeded medical advice given in 1910 to not seek another term. In the first instance, Elihu Root might well have succeeded TR, but could easily have decided to step down after a single term based on his own health. In the second instance, TR would have been the clear-cut choice of the rising progressive wing. In either case, however, TR would have defeated Wilson.

 

[DMA]

Not at all: there wouldn't have been a war in Europe beginning in late July 1914. TR enjoyed enormous international prestige in the chancelleries of Europe. I maintain he could/would have offered mediation of the Austro-Serbian crisis, similar to his offer to mediate an end to the Russo-Japanese war, which would have avoided a war altogether.

All this is, of course, predicated on TR beating Wilson in 1912. I maintain he could have done so by either persuading Taft to accept a Supreme Court appointment earlier (the subject was broached in 1902, for example), or had Taft heeded medical advice given in 1910 to not seek another term. In the first instance, Elihu Root might well have succeeded TR, but could easily have decided to step down after a single term based on his own health. In the second instance, TR would have been the clear-cut choice of the rising progressive wing. In either case, however, TR would have defeated Wilson.

Well doesn't all that qualify under my original statement:

...it would certainly mean WWI would turn out differently.

And that's IF the Austro-Hungarians wanted mediation. Like it's not as if other countries didn't offer to do the same thing in the OTL.

 

[Wendell]

Let's see if some of those white areas on your map become green

 

[DMA]

Let's see if some of those white areas on your map become green

Those white areas being to the north &/or south of the big mass of green in the middle?

 

[Wendell]

Those white areas being to the north &/or south of the big mass of green in the middle?

South. But, hey, going north would connect Alaska....

 

[DMA]

South. But, hey, going north would connect Alaska....

Not to mention all that Maple Syrup

 

[Wendell]

Not to mention all that Maple Syrup

And moose

 

[LacheyS]

World Guide 2000

BANGSAMORO
The Federated States of Bangsamoro

Bangsamoro is located in the southern Philippino Archipelago and northern Borneo and has a total land area of 167,130 square kilometres. It is divided into seven states. It is part of a Western Pacific arc characterized by volcanic activity, which has most notably affected Bangsamoro in the 1969 eruption of Mt Hibokhibok. The most notable peak is Mt Apo, which rises to a height of 2,954m metres. Its most notable river systems are the Pulangi Rio Grande – Mindanao and the Agusan.

Climate

Bangsamoro has a tropical marine climate characterized by a rainy season and a dry season. The summer monsoon brings heavy rains from May to October, while the winter monsoon brings cooler and drier air from December to February. Fortunately, it is located south of the typhoon belt. Close to 45% of the land area is covered in forests and woodland.

Cities and Towns

Davao 1,261,828
Zamboanga 661,973
Cagayan de Oro 508,065
Dadiangas 453,004
Iligan 313,567
Jolo 96,798 (capital)

Population

Total population (2000 est.) is 20,701,637, of which 63.8% live in urban areas. Population density is 1.6 person per square kilometer. The majority of the population identifies as Moro (59%), but there remain significantly minorities, the most noticeable being the following: Lumad 17%, Maranoa 5%, Tausug 5%, Mestizos 4%, Kadazan 3%, Chinese 3%, Butuan 2%, Bajau 2%. The population is relatively young, with two out of five persons under the age of 15.

Religion

In reply to an option question on religion in the recent census, 48.2% of the population is Roman Catholic; 41.8% is Muslim; 5.2% is Protestant; 2.0% is Buddhist. The remainder of respondents did not reply or marked “non-affiliated”.

Language

There are many indigenous languages, but the major languages are Manobo (a blend of a number of indigenous dialects) and English.

HISTORY

Anthropology fails to agree on a date of Moro colonisation, but it is generally believed their invasion of the islands occurred around 100 CE and that the Moro peoples made their way from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Following conquest, they settled to become traders and are recorded in the annals of China, Nippon, Abyssinia, Arabia and Madagascar. Trade with China continued from the 5th century and ancient Chinese artifacts, including vases, metal ware and jade, have been found on Mindanao dating from this time. From about 1330, war occurred between the Moro and the Javanese empire of Madjapahit. In 1511, d’Albuquerque, the Portuguese administrator of Malacca, records the presence in his harbour of two Molo trading ships.

The first missionary to reach Bangsamoro was the noted Arabian judge, Makdum, but his work was continued by Baguinda and Kabungsuwan. Sulu and Mindanao were converted to Islam, where the sincerity and altruism of the missionaries won over converts. In 1450, it was the influence of Islam led to the declaration of a sultanate.

Initial contact with the Spanish was violent, and the Moro were unable to maintain their northern holdings. The most violent attack occurred in 1570, against the Moro fort in Manila, which cost the life of Sultan Soliman. The Moro retreated to their strongholds in Mindanao and Sulu. Assaults against the Sultanate began in 1578, with the capital, Jolo, being burnt to the ground. The city would likewise be destroyed in 1638, 1731 and 1851, between which there were eleven unsuccessful attacks upon the fortress. In 1878, the Sultan struck a deal with the Austro-Hungarian consul-general in Hong Kong, leasing North Borneo, in return for modern weapons to equip his troops against the Spanish.

The Spanish failure to conquer Bangsamoro did not prevent a shorter American attempt in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but US President Roosevelt agreed to a peace treaty in 1905. Under an agreement with the US shortly thereafter, the Moro ended the practice of slavery, receiving from Washington a payment of twenty dollars for each slave freed. It was also agreed that the United States would handle the foreign affairs of Bangsamoro, and that the Sultan would be obliged to follow the advice of the American ambassador. Bangsamoro became a primary agricultural producer on an unprecedented scale.

Upon the death of Sultan Jamal-ul Kiram II in 1936, the throne was passed to Esmail Kiram I. His right to title was contested in the courts, but he was confirmed by a British arbiter, Lord Macasckie, in 1939. Entering into the rule of his country at a difficult time, he pledged his opposition to Japanese imperialism. The Japanese Imperial Army invaded Bangsamoro on 8 December, 1941, making amphibious attacks on the western coast. The Moro had virtually no air force and not a single tank. The traditional warriors drew their Kris but were struck down by modern weapons. Slowly, the retreat to Jolo continued until the last Allied forces reached the city on 1 February, 1942, The Bangsamoro Royal Navy kept off attacks from Jolo for over two weeks and the city formally surrendered on 16 February.

In 1946, the Moro bought back the lease and interests of the British North Borneo Company with the support of the United States. However, the growth of the Communist Party and an increased feeling among the young about the irrelevance of the datu and the sultan led to estrangement from the US and a distinct chill in relations with the Philippines. In 1968, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos executed 70 Moro commandos, who he claimed were in the Philippines in preparation for an invasion. At the same time, tensions between the Christian and Muslim communities were at a peak.

Civil war broke out on the eve of the 1968 elections, with Christian and Muslim factions fighting each other. Over four years of conflict, over 100 thousand were killed and a further 250 thousand made homeless. In 1970, Sultan Esmail Kiram I was assassinated by the Ilagas, a Christian terrorist organisation. Eventually, the Moro National Front, supported by Sultan Mahakutta Kiram, formed a government of national unity to bring the war to an end. The MNF has won every election since that time.

Constitution and Government

Bangsamoro is a constitutional monarchy. The Sultan appoints a Cabinet headed by a Prime Minister, the head of Government. The Majlis consists of: a 72-member Senate, serving a six year term, elected by the individual state Majlis or Parliaments; a 144-member House of Representatives, elected every three years by universal adult suffrage according to single member constituencies. It has a federal form of government, with some powers resting with the states. The ruling party is the multi-racial, multi-religious Moro National Front.

Head of State: Sultan Muedzul Lail Kiram (since 1986)
Prime Minister: Benjamin B. Bautista

Defence

The Royal Defence Forces have 52,500 personnel, with a reserve force of 20500. The Moro Army are equipped with 70 light tanks (Scorpion). The Royal Moro Navy is equipped with 68 vessels including 13 frigates and 6 submarines. The Royal Moro Air Force is equipped with four squadrons of F/A-18 Hornets and two squadrons of F-111’s.

Economy

The peso, divided into 100 cents.
45.68 pesos = $US1

Budget: Revenue $60.36 billion; Spending $57.06 billion
Balance of Payments: $5.03 billion surplus
Inflation: 3.1%
GDP: $217.56 billion, per capita: $10,509

 

[LacheyS]

South. But, hey, going north would connect Alaska....

North - hmmmmm, unlikely. South, well, one might need to preserve stable environments for American business.

 

[LacheyS]

The case of Lochner v New York, 198 U.S. 45 (1905) was perhaps one of the most controversial decisions in the history of the Supreme Court, stating that right of free contract was not implicit in the 14th Amendment. Many have argued since that the Supreme Court's new industrial role may have influenced the judges in the 5-4 decision, particularly Justice Joseph McKenna, whose opinion was uncertain until the final judgment was issued on April 7. And it marked the beginning of new age in US labor relations.

The city of New York had enacted regulations forbidding bakers from working more than ten hours per day or sixty hours per week. In 1899, Lochner had been fined for overworking an employee. When he was convicted a second time, in 1901, he appealed to the New York Supreme Court and then the New York Court of Appeals, losing both times. After his defeats, he went on to the Supreme Court.

Under Allegeyer v Louisiana (1897), the Court had held that the due process clause, although substantive in limiting government authority over individuals, did not provide an absolute right, but was subject to the police powers of the state. In the judgment by Justice John Marshall Harlan, writing for the Court, it was contended that the statute by New York was enacted to protect the physical well-being of workers and thus would not be overturned. Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jnr stated, in his concurrence, that the Constitution did not guarantee freedom of contact at all.

This judgment marked the beginning of a series of rulings, called the Lochner era, in which the right of workers to join unions would be protected and minimum wages would be upheld. In 1908, the Court would be asked to prescribe its view as to what was meant by "fair and reasonable wages", the wording of the federal legislation. It ruled that it must be "sufficient to support the wage earner and his dependents in reasonable and frugal comfort" and settled on $10.70 per week or $3.40 per day.

At the time, those figures were unacceptable to industry, driving the minimum wage from $438 per annum (1900) to $556 per annum (1908). However, they were tolerated due to the recent increases in tariffs, passed by the Congress in 1905. Many of the tenement houses in the major cities could no longer attract customers, or when they did, they were people seeking to combine three apartments into one residence. Lodging hotels renovated and began to provide almost luxurious suites to single men at $1 per night. Outlying suburbs began to really develop, with modern conveniences like flush toilets, bathtubs, electric lights, telephones and heating.

 

[Wendell]

This is getting interesting...

 

[LacheyS]

This is getting interesting...

Ta muchly!

 

[1940LaSalle]

And that's IF the Austro-Hungarians wanted mediation. Like it's not as if other countries didn't offer to do the same thing in the OTL.

As I said before, TR enjoyed enormous prestige in the capitals of Europe. I don't doubt for a minute that the combined weight of Whitehall, Unter den Linden, et. al. would have been placed on the Habsburg monarchy to accept mediation. After all, nobody else at the time had the peace-making credentials and experience that TR had.

 

[DMA]

As I said before, TR enjoyed enormous prestige in the capitals of Europe. I don't doubt for a minute that the combined weight of Whitehall, Unter den Linden, et. al. would have been placed on the Habsburg monarchy to accept mediation. After all, nobody else at the time had the peace-making credentials and experience that TR had.

Yeah, but TR's peace credentials were from the Russo-Japanese war of the 1905 period. We're talking ten years later in 1914. And that still doesn't take into account the motivations for Austria in the first place, which was to force Serbia to become part of the A-H Empire. And this was A-Hs position at the time. Having the Arch Duke assassinated merely played right into A-Hs hands.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Yeah, but TR's peace credentials were from the Russo-Japanese war of the 1905 period. We're talking ten years later in 1914. And that still doesn't take into account the motivations for Austria in the first place, which was to force Serbia to become part of the A-H Empire. And this was A-Hs position at the time. Having the Arch Duke assassinated merely played right into A-Hs hands.

True, eight years elapsed from the end of the Russo-Japanese War in 1906 until Sarajevo in 1914. But read "Theodore Rex" by Edmund Morris and you'll have a better feel for the extremely high regard in which Roosevelt was held in Europe in 1910 and 1911. It's a small extrapolation from that to assume that he'd have been able to wield the same clout and charisma in 1914, especially with the general support of Sir Edward Grey and Kaiser Wilhelm II, to coax the Habsburg Empire to mediation.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Yeah, but TR's peace credentials were from the Russo-Japanese war of the 1905 period. We're talking ten years later in 1914. And that still doesn't take into account the motivations for Austria in the first place, which was to force Serbia to become part of the A-H Empire. And this was A-Hs position at the time. Having the Arch Duke assassinated merely played right into A-Hs hands.

True, eight years elapsed from the end of the Russo-Japanese War in 1906 until Sarajevo in 1914. But read "Theodore Rex" by Edmund Morris and you'll have a better feel for the extremely high regard in which Roosevelt was held in Europe in 1910 and 1911. It's a small extrapolation from that to assume that he'd have been able to wield the same clout and charisma in 1914, especially with the general support of Sir Edward Grey and Kaiser Wilhelm II, to coax the Habsburg Empire to mediation.

 

[DMA]

True, eight years elapsed from the end of the Russo-Japanese War in 1906 until Sarajevo in 1914. But read "Theodore Rex" by Edmund Morris and you'll have a better feel for the extremely high regard in which Roosevelt was held in Europe in 1910 and 1911. It's a small extrapolation from that to assume that he'd have been able to wield the same clout and charisma in 1914, especially with the general support of Sir Edward Grey and Kaiser Wilhelm II, to coax the Habsburg Empire to mediation.

Oh I accept what you're saying in this regards. And I don't doubt TR may at first try this approach, especially if he can get the British & Germans on side.

The trouble is the Austrians. In the OTL they seemed to lose all context of the bigger picture. They ignored the Russians; they wouldn't listen to the Germans either (who weren't overly pleased with what the Austrians were doing): so even though the Serbs agreed to most of the Austrian demands, the Austrians went to war anyway.

As a result, you'll need a POD to take place in Austria IMHO, rather than having TR getting involved in a peace process.

 

[Wendell]

Oh I accept what you're saying in this regards. And I don't doubt TR may at first try this approach, especially if he can get the British & Germans on side.

The trouble is the Austrians. In the OTL they seemed to lose all context of the bigger picture. They ignored the Russians; they wouldn't listen to the Germans either (who weren't overly pleased with what the Austrians were doing): so even though the Serbs agreed to most of the Austrian demands, the Austrians went to war anyway.

As a result, you'll need a POD to take place in Austria IMHO, rather than having TR getting involved in a peace process.

Germany always wanted the war more than did Austria, but would Austria persue such negotiations?

 

[LacheyS]

14 May, 1905
The White House

“Thanks for the game, Bert. Now, why don’t you tell me why you’re really here?”

The two tennis players had vacated the court, rackets in hand, and moved to a nearby table where refreshments awaited.

“Well, I had the meeting with Ted yesterday. It wasn’t what I would call a slam dunk,” Bert replied, smiling at his own joke.

“Why not?”

“He isn’t prepared to back down.” Bert’s face scrunched in frustration. “But Sherman won’t allow it – it just won’t allow it.”

“The target?”

“Western Union. By adding it to his holdings, he can control all telegraph and telephone services in the United States and he was ready to do anything to get our approval.”

“Anything?” The face of President Roosevelt broke into a smile. “I think it’s time that the two of us met for discussions.”

Bert, known to the general public as Herbert Knox Smith, Commissioner of the Bureau of Corporations, knew that smile only too well. He also knew from experience that the enforcement of the Sherman Anti-trust Act by this Administration rested on the President’s decision as to whether you were a good monopoly or a bad monopoly. The meeting with Theodore Vail, Chairman of AT&T, may not have been a disaster after all.

The Sherman Anti-trust Act had been passed only as a tool to clear the way for the enactment of higher tariffs. As Roosevelt would say in later years, “provided it is not a coercive monopoly, provided it is a natural monopoly, provided the principles of the free market are not violated, Sherman should not apply.” He developed the Doctrine of Public Utility, meaning that US Administration would choose not to prosecute under Sherman where the formation and continued existence of monopolies served a useful purpose in expansion of services and low cost of services to the consumer. (In OTL, he developed this idea about seven years later.)

At the time, it was figured that the doctrine was a temporary measure that would be killed by the next Democrat Administration. However, nobody realised just how long the Republicans would remain in control of the Oval Office.