In His Own Right, Part II

[LacheyS]

The Mexican War

There was enormous political turmoil in Mexico City when it became clear that US Secretary of War, William Taft, was there to purchase more land, not to offer compensation for past conflict as had been suggested. It stirred up considerable anti-American feeling, which President Diaz was confident he could control. The growing threat from democratic forces in Mexico was threatening his military rule of the country and, by raising the spectre of further American aggression, he hoped to unify his people behind him for the coming fraud of an election. If the result was questionable, he would win.

President Diaz instructed that the Secretary should stay at the US Embassy until the Palace was ready to receive him. And so Taft waited. And waited. And waited. In the Embassy, it was clear that Mexico's leader was trying to make a point. Deliberately insulting and belittling the US representative was certainly a way of making the point clear to America. In reality, there was little they could do about it.

However, the tension between American and Mexican troops on the border was a matter that needed some dire attention. The charade that Mexico City was playing was one that required an enormous amount of restraint and professionalism by the soldiers inserted into the bit parts. Unfortunately, many of these soldiers were conscripts.

On 23 July, the officers at Camp Elliot in San Diego, acting on a "tip-off", gave an order to investigate the abandoned Adamson Ranch east of the city. What precisely happened after that point is unclear. It has undoubtedly been clouded over due to a century of propaganda, half truths and great exaggerations by both sides. What was clear is that over two thousand Mexican troops had made their way across the border and stationed themselves on US soil in preparation for the war they believed was coming. A quick strike and capture against San Diego in the early days of the war would cover these soldiers in glory. In the meantime, they could live on the secluded property and nobody on either side would be any the wiser.

The firefight at the Adamson Ranch saw the Americans vastly outnumbered and the scout team quickly surrender, losing eleven soldiers in the process.
The Mexican soldiers now knew that they (and their sixty plus prisoners) had to get back across the border. If the Americans found out what had happened here, Mexico would be blamed for starting the war. If the Mexican generals found out they had pre-empted orders, they would be probably be shot by Mexican guns rather than American ones. So they prepared to withdraw, unaware that one American soldier had avoided capture and was on his way back to Camp Elliot.

On 27 July, President Roosevelt ordered Secretary Taft to come home. He further demanded the release of American prisoners by Mexico and gave the Mexicans seven days to cede Magdalena Bay and its surrounds as sovereign US territory. President Diaz had been backed into a corner from which he could not escape. On 2 August, a Mexican force numbering over five thousand crossed the Californian border and the Mexican War had begun.

 

[G.Bone]

Arrr.....

A Second North American War?

Arg.

Let's hope that the Mexicans will be stronger TTL...

(The First N.A.W. is what the Mexicans call the Mexican-American War)

 

[LacheyS]

The new Chief of Staff

At the start of war, General Arthur MacArthur, Army Chief of Staff since 1906, had already announced his retirement. In his place, the President had appointed Lieutenant General Leonard Wood, who, with Roosevelt, was an avid promoter of the Preparedness Movement. They argued that there needed to be steady and sizable increases in the American military capability to prepare for future intervention beyond America's immediate sphere of influence if required. With the arrival of the Mexican War, President Roosevelt's desire for a comprehensive boost to military expenditure was achieved. Congress approved the declaration of war on 7 August.

US forces struck across two fronts, the Rio Grande in Mexico and Baja California, reinforced by the Pacific Fleet. On 22 August, as troops began to cross the border, those who opposed the Diaz regime rose up to declare their independence from Mexico. Wealthy businessman Francisco Madero and cattlerancher Venustiano Carranza were among those who announced the neutrality of Coahuila and sought American protection. In Chihuahua, three days later, wealthy miner Pascual Orozco used American supplied arms to stage a coup against the Governor and declare himself interim President. In the south, the head of Anenecuilco village, Emiliano Zapata, declared himself the General of the Liberation Army of the South and commenced a guerrilla campaign to overthrow President Diaz.

In Baja California and "the Sur", American nationals actively supported the invasion forces. Rear Admiral Cameron Winslow took temporary control of Magdalena Bay, governing it from the bridge of the battleship New Hampshire, although control would later be transferred to Admiral William Cowles (retd.), former CINC, Asiatic Fleet and the President's brother-in-law.

Considering the forces raised against him, President Diaz had little chance of survival. The fall of Hermosillo on 6 November sealed his fate and, two weeks later, Acting President Madero offered an unconditional surrender to the United States. Under the armistice signed at Matamoros, the United States claimed the new Territory of Southern California, retained the right to occupy Sonora, Sinaloa and Durango until their status was decided by negotiation and both countries agreed to recognise the defacto independence of the Republic of Chihuahua until such time as a peace treaty was reached. General Wood would get his fourth star for his efforts.

 

[LacheyS]

The Home Front

The Mexican War of 1909 represented a major point of fracture for the Republican Party. The ongoing arguments that had threatened to destroy party unity for over five years, and the "emergency" created by the conflict moved the President to launch a new vision for the country - one that threatened to destroy the status quo. Roosevelt had constantly ignored and sidelined his "anti-conservative" Secretary of War, William Taft, who was sacked in September for his public disagreement with the new direction of the Administration.

The reason for the fracture was not solely the war itself. The President had stumbled upon a new theory: New Nationalism. He argued that there were two basic strands in American political thought, which he termed Hamiltonian and Jeffersonian. The former, he argued, had become identified in the public mind with strong government, aristocracy and special privilege, while the Jeffersonian dogma of weak government had become identified with democracy, equal rights and equal opportunity. He called for an amalgam of the two, the use of Hamiltonian means to achieve Jeffersonian ends. Americans had to do this, he argued, because of the new facts of industrial life.

"The old nationalism is the nationalism of sinister special interests," he said. "In the long struggle for the uplift of humanity, this great Republic means nothing unless it is the triumph of a real democracy, the triumph of popular government and, most important of all, an economic system under which each person is guaranteed the opportunity to show their best.

It is of little use for us to pay lip loyalty to the mighty men of the past unless we sincerely endeavor to apply to the problems of the present precisely the qualities which in other crises enabled the men of that day to meet those crises. It is half melancholy and half amusing to see the way in which well-meaning people gather to do honor to the men who faced and solved the great problems of the nineteenth century, while, at the same time, these same good people nervously shrink from, frantically denounce, those who are trying to meet the problems of the twentieth century.

I hold that it is the duty of all people not only to improve their own condition, but to assist in ameliorating all humankind. Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed without labor. Labor is thus the superior of capital and deserves much the higher consideration."

President Roosevelt was strongly denounced by members of the Republican Party as a socialist agitator, before he kindly pointed out that large swathes of his speech had been quoting Abraham Lincoln. At a speech to a military base in Topeka, he said,

"I stand for the square deal. But when I say that I am for the square deal, I mean not merely that I stand for fair play under the present rules of the game, but that I stand for having those rules changed so as to work for a more substantial equality of opportunity and of reward for equally good service. One word of warning, which, I think, is hardly necessary in Kansas. When I say I want a square deal for the poor man, I do not mean that I want a square deal for the man who remains poor because he has not got the energy to work for himself. If a man who has had a chance will not make good, then he has got to quit. And you men of the Grand Army, you want justice for the brave man who fought, and punishment for the coward who shirked his work. Is not that so?"

He also attacked his fellow Republicans for opposing his efforts by calling them "untrue to the principles of conservatism". Again, in a speech in New Mexico Territory to the troops, he said,

"The absence of effective state, and, especially, national, restraint upon unfair money getting has tended to create a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power. The prime need is to change the conditions which enable these men to accumulate power which it is not for the general welfare that they should hold or exercise. We grudge no man a fortune which represents his own power and sagacity, when exercised with entire regard to the welfare of his fellows. Comrades, we grudge no man a fortune in civil life if it is honorably obtained and well used. It is not even enough that it should have been gained without doing damage to the community. We should permit it to be gained only so long as the gaining represents benefit to the community. This, I know, implies a policy of a far more active governmental interference with social and economic conditions in this country than we have yet had, but I think we have got to face the fact that such an increase in governmental control is now necessary."

He projected that he would ask Congress for more centralisation of power. He wanted the power to regulate tariffs independent of Congressional oversight. He wanted the restoration of his Labor Court. He wanted the formation of a National Investigations Bureau to ensure "compliance by those who resist the complete and effective public control of private affairs." He also projected the formation of "public service monopolies to control the necessities of life".

The anger within the Republican Party was palpable. With the dismissal of Taft, the President had asked each of his Cabinet to consider their position and ask themselves whether they could stay the course with his new agenda. They each agreed to do so. However, the Republican Party was now irreparably split and the question was asked in the halls of power as to who would win in this battle of wills - the White House or the Congress. There was also the question as to who would control the future of the Republican Party. The President who answer that question later in the year when, in October, he ordered his loyal party chairman to begin proceedings to expel his vocal opponents, Speaker Joseph Cannon and William Taft, from the Republican Party.

 

[Wendell]

The President wants the Speaker expelled fromn the Party?

 

[LacheyS]

The President wants the Speaker expelled fromn the Party?

Cannon was a LONG-TIME Representative (1873-1891, 1893-to date). He had been Speaker at this point for over six years. Many have claimed that he was perhaps the most powerful Speaker in the history of the United States, as he was also Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee and Chairman of the Committee on Rules. He also used to regularly veto members of committees of whom he did not approve. He also regularly refused to recognise people from the Speaker's chair that whose voice he didn't wish heard.

However, he and Roosevelt regularly clashed. Cannon, in TTL, even considered a bid at the Presidential nomination in 1908. His most famous remark regarding Roosevelt was that he had "no more use for the Constitution than a tomcat has for a marriage license".

The Democrats loathed him with a passion and, between 1910 and 1912, as the Republican Party fell apart, the enemies within his own party and the Democrats combined to bring him down. They also targeted his Congressional district to throw him out of the House. This is the level of venal displeasure he engendered as Speaker.

So, yes, Roosevelt does wish to expel the Speaker. Effectively, from here until the 1910 Congressional elections, Roosevelt will be working to "clean out" the "special interests" in the Republican Party. Ultimately, the growing number of targets will quit to form a new party and the Republican Party will need to find new candidates to contest those seats against sitting members of the new Constitution Party.

 

[Wendell]

Cannon was a LONG-TIME Representative (1873-1891, 1893-to date). He had been Speaker at this point for over six years. Many have claimed that he was perhaps the most powerful Speaker in the history of the United States, as he was also Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee and Chairman of the Committee on Rules. He also used to regularly veto members of committees of whom he did not approve. He also regularly refused to recognise people from the Speaker's chair that whose voice he didn't wish heard.

However, he and Roosevelt regularly clashed. Cannon, in TTL, even considered a bid at the Presidential nomination in 1908. His most famous remark regarding Roosevelt was that he had "no more use for the Constitution than a tomcat has for a marriage license".

The Democrats loathed him with a passion and, between 1910 and 1912, as the Republican Party fell apart, the enemies within his own party and the Democrats combined to bring him down. They also targeted his Congressional district to throw him out of the House. This is the level of venal displeasure he engendered as Speaker.

So, yes, Roosevelt does wish to expel the Speaker. Effectively, from here until the 1910 Congressional elections, Roosevelt will be working to "clean out" the "special interests" in the Republican Party. Ultimately, the growing number of targets will quit to form a new party and the Republican Party will need to find new candidates to contest those seats against sitting members of the new Constitution Party.

An earlier (and different) Constitution Party should be interesting. If there was ever a time and person to have a Prime Minister for the U.S., it would have been during Canon's duration as Speaker, had it not been for the fact that he served under strong presidents.

 

[LacheyS]

An earlier (and different) Constitution Party should be interesting. If there was ever a time and person to have a Prime Minister for the U.S., it would have been during Canon's duration as Speaker, had it not been for the fact that he served under strong presidents.

I am inclined to agree with that assessment.

I have two questions for our intrepid audience. Firstly, how much is the Presidency and party name worth when it comes to elections? How much of a bump will it give Roosevelt? You see, I have started working on election outcomes for the Congressional elections in 1910, assuming a three-way contest. I am assuming a marginal swing in the Congressional elections toward the Republican Party, due to the tendency of people to not change their voting patterns. This will mean that some Democrat and Constitution districts will go back to the Republicans, including probably, at current trends, Cannon's district.

However, I am also not really certain that, long term, the new style of split will necessarily play into strong support for Roosevelt. I think it will result in higher turnout, and much of that from Constitutional and Democrat supporters. So the the Presidential election of 1912 may well end up in the House of Representatives. So another query, is the House that decides the election the one that came to power in the 1910 elections, or the one that is elected in 1912? Oh, and don't forget the growing power of the Socialists.

Thanks for your inputs.

 

[LacheyS]

The Pledge of Prince Ito

The Resident-General of Korea, Okuma Shigenobu, had been involved in the talks in Tokyo from the beginning. The Emperor Gwangmu had proven suprisingly cooperative over the last few years during Prince Ito's administration, dismaying expectations of the Japanese Government, but, as Masatake assured them, this would all cease unless agreement was reached soon on the future of the peninsula. Korea's debt had fallen by 45% and was continuing to drop. The commitments that had been made by the Koreans had been kept. At current rates, they will have repayed every loan from Japan by 1912 and wiped out the justification that Japan held for its "sphere of influence".

Hirobumi's stern advice to the Imperial Court on his retirement was that, if they wished to hold on to Korea into the future, without the use of expensive military exercises that would prompt Russia to renewed action, now was the time to reach such an agreement. He had pledged to represent the Korean cause in Tokyo and had now fulfilled his honour. Shigenobu, the former Prime Minister and president of Waseba University, agreed with his predecessor - a rare event in Japanese politics considering their past history. As one of the nation's most beloved leaders, his opinion held a heavy weight and the fact that Ito and Okuma had been such rivals in the past made the matter a fait accompli.

So the question that confronted Japan was how to resolve the Korean situation without losing this valuable asset. One clear precondition of any arrangement was that Emperor Gwangmu must renounce his 1897 declaration of the Empire and recognise Meiji as his sovereign. That, clearly, was not going to occur, so is was decided early on that Gwangmu must abdicate. And voluntarily, when it was made clear to him that the only hope of autonomy by Korea was as a dominion of the Japanese Empire. Instead, the title of King of Korea must be offered to his 35-year-old son, Crown Prince Cheok, along with the hand of Princess Masako, the 21-year-old daughter of Emperor Meiji, who would adopt a Korean name.

There was considerable debate as to whether or not Cheok would accept the terms. And so, the deal was "spiced up". Japan would return to Korea its debt repayments to date as an investment in building the empire and cancel the outstanding payments. In addition, Emperor Meiji offered to divide the realm. While he would retain the title of Emperor of Japan, there would be two equal realms. The new Kingdom of Naichi would have King Yoshihito and Queen Sadako, ruling from Tokyo. The Kingdom of Korea would have King Yungheui and Queen Yi, ruling from Hanseong. Both would rule in their respective kingdoms under the sovereignty of the Emperor, who would return the imperial residence to Kyoto, which would be legally defined as being neither Naichi nor Korean.

The offer was formally presented for consideration to the Imperial Court of Korea on 26 October, 1909, with an answer to be received the close of the year 1911 of the Gregorian calendar, also known as Meiji 43.

 

[Neroon]

I'm glad to see that you're updating again far sooner than you'd announced.

And i like to think that i pointed you into the direction you went vis - a -vis Korea and Japan by giving you the link about Ito Hirobumi.

BTW.: I'm probably not telling you anything you don't already know, but: Korea was a Vassal of China during the Ming & Qing dynasties. So there would be historical precedent for Korea being a Vassal Kingdom of an Empire. Should make popular acceptance a lot easier in Korea.

 

[G.Bone]

There was considerable debate as to whether or not Cheok would accept the terms. And so, the deal was "spiced up". Japan would return to Korea its debt repayments to date as an investment in building the empire and cancel the outstanding payments. In addition, Emperor Meiji offered to divide the realm. While he would retain the title of Emperor of Japan, there would be two equal realms. The new Kingdom of Naichi would have King Yoshihito and Queen Sadako, ruling from Tokyo. The Kingdom of Korea would have King Yungheui and Queen Yi, ruling from Hanseong. Both would rule in their respective kingdoms under the sovereignty of the Emperor, who would return the imperial residence to Kyoto, which would be legally defined as being neither Naichi nor Korean.

So this snuffs out Korean nationalism?

.....there might be a difficulty on this proposal on the account that Korea is just standing up as a nation...

 

[LacheyS]

I'm glad to see that you're updating again far sooner than you'd announced.

And i like to think that i pointed you into the direction you went vis - a -vis Korea and Japan by giving you the link about Ito Hirobumi.

BTW.: I'm probably not telling you anything you don't already know, but: Korea was a Vassal of China during the Ming & Qing dynasties. So there would be historical precedent for Korea being a Vassal Kingdom of an Empire. Should make popular acceptance a lot easier in Korea.

Yeah, me too. Much more fun doing this than working.

Yes, and thank you. Many ideas have flowed into this timeline from message chats with other people and comments left here. It is why when I moved Chapter One to the Timelines forum I noted a number of co-authors. I notice that people are still reading (nearly 200 in the last few days), but that less and less people are commenting, so I don't know whether I am getting boring and predictable, or covering all bases, or what. When I am teaching, diversionary conversations can often be more interesting and helpful than the lesson plan. So I really do value other people's input, but I understand that sometimes I just think of anything to say.

From my understanding of the subject, Korea actually declared itself to be an Empire to separate itself from the Qing. However, I can't really see the Korean Emperor taking a step back on this: he was incredibly persistent and strong-willed in our timeline. However, if enough pressure is brought to bear, he may be inclined to step aside. But the people themselves had less than a decade of real independence, so yes, I agree with your assessment that the sale of the proposal "on the ground" won't have any substantial hitches.

 

[LacheyS]

So this snuffs out Korean nationalism?

.....there might be a difficulty on this proposal on the account that Korea is just standing up as a nation...

I don't think it completely snuffs it out. I am looking at the British dominion system as a kind of example of how it would operate. Think of the Kings as Governors-General and the Emperor as the Crown, and you get the idea for which I am aiming.

On that basis, it does not actually suppress nationalism, but rather provides it with an acceptable legal context in which it can operate.

And now on to research for the last post of 1909 - the Summer of Blood.

 

[G.Bone]

ooooooooooo

The Summer of Blood

Sounds something from a George R.R. Martin Book.

 

[LacheyS]

ooooooooooo

The Summer of Blood

Sounds something from a George R.R. Martin Book.

Tragedy, yes! Science fiction, no!

Let's just say that there will be quite a few American citizens killed and I am thinking of tossing in a state of emergency under a force of Special Agents, with the army called in to establish martial law in a few of the Southern states.

Great fun for the whole family.

 

[Wendell]

I am inclined to agree with that assessment.

I have two questions for our intrepid audience. Firstly, how much is the Presidency and party name worth when it comes to elections? How much of a bump will it give Roosevelt? You see, I have started working on election outcomes for the Congressional elections in 1910, assuming a three-way contest. I am assuming a marginal swing in the Congressional elections toward the Republican Party, due to the tendency of people to not change their voting patterns. This will mean that some Democrat and Constitution districts will go back to the Republicans, including probably, at current trends, Cannon's district.

However, I am also not really certain that, long term, the new style of split will necessarily play into strong support for Roosevelt. I think it will result in higher turnout, and much of that from Constitutional and Democrat supporters. So the the Presidential election of 1912 may well end up in the House of Representatives. So another query, is the House that decides the election the one that came to power in the 1910 elections, or the one that is elected in 1912? Oh, and don't forget the growing power of the Socialists.

Thanks for your inputs.

I am not sure that Presidents have that sort of pull in these days that they do today.

And on the Japan sections:

It is Waseda University, not Waseba

Would the Japanese really have Princess Masako change her name?

 

[LacheyS]

I am not sure that Presidents have that sort of pull in these days that they do today.

And on the Japan sections:

It is Waseda University, not Waseba

Would the Japanese really have Princess Masako change her name?

Thanks for that. I couldn't find anything about the value of the incumbency prior to the 1960's, but wasn't sure if that was because it wasn't significant prior to that, or just because nobody had done any reserach on the subject.

Thanks for the spelling correction.

I had Princess Masako change her name because it was traditional, at that time in Korea and Japan, for monarchs to take new names upon ascension to the next aristocratic rank. For example, Prince Michi became Emperor Hirohito became Emperor Showa in death. So, it would have been traditional practice for Masako to change her name upon becoming Queen. I have given her a Korean name as part of the compromise being offered.

 

[LacheyS]

The Summer of Blood

The issue of segregation as promulgated by the brethren of the Supreme Court was always destined to be problematic. The recent appointment of a progressive Democrat who staunchly criticised big business and greater government power in economic regulation, Louis Brandeis, to replace the late Justice Peckham was indicative of the fact that nothing was about to change in short order. Despite the cries of the rebel Republican factions, those loyal to the President combined with the Democrats to achieve the appointment.

However, it did not stop those opposing the doctrine from using every instrument available to them to delay what the Administration viewed as inevitable. Some of the state congresses passed laws which cancelled funding for desegregated school districts. Others referred decisions as to student allocations to all-white Boards of Education, who then selectively sent African Americans to one school and whites to another. Others decided to allow African American children into the established schools and opened new all-white academies in the nearby vicinity. In Virginia, one school district completely closed all operations rather than allow "niggers".

In the Congress itself, various congressional delegations voiced their anger at desegregation policies. Six states declared themselves unanimously in opposition to the new deal: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas. The tension resulted in a degree of civil disobedience and protests arranged by Dubois' National Negro Committee. Dubois stated that "The New Negro will not tolerate segregation and discrimination as a necessary reality." In Alabama and Mississippi, there was established a joint commission to protect the sovereignty of the state from the "encroachment and usurpation of the rights and powers of the states" and to investigate secession.

It was perhaps inevitable that the hostility and anger would eventually spill over into violence. On November 18, 1909, a young Missouri schoolboy was lynched by two whites, who proudly proclaimed that had taught the "uppity" African American child a lesson when he presumed to attempt to enter a whites-only school. The two stood trial before an all-white jury, who prompted acquitted them. The politicians and police authorities in Missouri did not act for two reasons: the populace of St Louis was strongly behind the acquittal and most of the police force were in favour of perpetuating the segregation. The Socialist Labor Party had also entered the fray, publicly agitating in favour of "the liberation of the Negro" and funding public demonstrations across the country.

The day of the acquittal, 16 December, violence broke out in St Louis and quickly spread across the country. Cincinnati, New York, Memphis, New Orleans, Wilmington, Charleston, Houston, Philadelphia, Omaha, Tulsa, Miami, Detroit, Los Angeles, Jacksonville, Rochester, Newark - one by one, major cities across the country were brought to a standstill by race riots where white and black murdered each other in escalating levels of violence. Before the Administration intervened, it is estimated that over 1700 people were killed.

The President's first action was to send in the National Guard to break up the violence, followed by his newly established National Intelligence Bureau. They were authorised to infiltrate activist groups, conduct psychological warfare to discredit and undermine them, harass dissidents through the legal system and conduct "extralegal activities", including vandalism, assaults, beatings and, when absolutely necessary, assassinations. The program was kept largely secret until 1924, when there was a leak from NIB offices to Congress. A subsequent 1929 Congressional inquiry concluded that the NIB had conducted "a sophisticated vigilante operation aimed squarely at the prevention of the exercise of First Amendment rights of speech and association with techniques that were intolerable to a democratic society".

However, even the National Guard was insufficient to control the violence in some areas of the nation. Violence continued in Arkansas, Nebraska, Sth Carolina, Tennessee and Texas and, eventually, the President declared martial law in parts of those states. However, the Constitution of Tennessee outlawed the use of martial law and, as far as Senator Robert Taylor of Tennessee was concerned, the US Administration had violated the terms of their continued membership of the Union.

Standing at the Nashville Parthenon, Senator Taylor declared his intention to resign in protest, waving a copy of the Declaration of Independence and declaring the country had come under the rule of a "mad King George". He declared that Tennessee had now become "a conquered and occupied province like unto those in Mexico subjugated by the Emperor in Washington". Claiming the principle of popular sovereignty, he declared Tennessee independent of the United States. As he had performed this act in a region under martial law, he was immediately arrested by the military. The Union was now facing its greatest crisis since the Civil War.

 

[Shadow Knight]

Interesting. Still a Senator can declare Tennessee independent all he wants but I believe a plebiscite would really be needed for that to occur.

 

[LacheyS]

Interesting. Still a Senator can declare Tennessee independent all he wants but I believe a plebiscite would really be needed for that to occur.

Don't worry, the Senator will not ultimately resign. The split of the Republican Party is about to follow hot on the heels of that speech and the balance in the Congress will fundamentally shift.