Does he? What if the Soviets get no farther west than the Vistula?
They don't get to loot Eastern Europe, probably unable to help Mao as OTL, much poorer nation, longer to rebuild with more war deaths and less infrastructure from LL. Uncle Joe will be seen as a far weaker figure than OTL, a horrific War, and little to show for it.
Bomb will be delayed, as it was, took years to go from Joe-1 to a deployable bomb, in this ATL, it's likely the UK does a Test first, and this changes the dynamic of the Cold War, ontop less Soviet adventurism in influencing CP around the globe
There's a lot of butterfly handwaving going on in this thread.
First off, Lend Lease peaked in 43 and 44, which means Soviet offenses are less effective. If you really want to argue the Ukraine is more devastated because it takes a year longer to reconquer it, ok.
Second, once the allies land, the Germans need to move divisions from the eastern front to the western and they'll probably have to pull back to shorten their lines. On a percentage basis, the US and UK are much worse off than the Russians in terms of casualties. Fighting through the bocage is 10x more difficult let alone crossing France.
Third, there were a lot of communist sympathizers in the US during this time. I can easily imagine a situation where they are more apt to provide more assistance than OTL if the Soviets are hung out to dry.
Finally, OTL, Stalin was fairly accommodating - let Greece and Turkey go to the West. Stayed out of Korea. Pulled out of Iran, with a nudge. He's going to be far less accommodating ATL. And given the relative weakness, he will make obtaining the Bomb a much bigger priority. Yes, he doesnt get to loot East Germany but he might stick around in northern Iran and I have a feeling Turkey goes communist. Finland might not get the kid gloves either in this scenario. Asia is a lot harder to game. But I bet the Soviets are even more aggressive with asymmetric in the post war climate in South Asia and Africa. The resources to aid these places arent great and the Soviet Union is going to be a lot more brutal and less accommodating to the West in 45-49.
Finally, we're all ignoring the elephant in the room. Both sides feared the other would make a separate peace. Let's say the Soviets make peace with the Germans in 1944 - give us Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Finland. By this time the Soviets have modernized their military and industrial infrastructure to protect against a future German attack. And now the Wehrmacht can turn west against the US and UK. Even if you think this is ASB in hindsight, the fear of it at the time made this debate absurd.