So almost all that French investment will still find its way to Russia. It was private capital seeking private returns after all.
My mistake, since it tends to just be referred to as "French Investment" I had assumed that a substantial portion of it had been from the French government. Sorry about that.
Yes, let's.
Now there are a few contradictions you've made.
The Russians are going to save far more by reduced army spending and trade advantags with Germany than they will lose in investment income- which can come from many other sources anyway. French investment in Russia was done by private individuals seeking private gain. The worse that can happen is that Russia would have to pay a slightly higher interest rate.
I don't think you own a bridge in China and no, the Austrians aren't going to last more than a few weeks. In August 1914, the Russians sent four armies against the Austrians They drove they back behind the San river by the first week in September. If they sent the two northern armies south they would have been at the passes and beyond.
You're arguing that Russia will invest substantially less in its army, yet at the same time you're using OTL as a qualitative and quantitative baseline for the Russian military.
Wait actually it's worse.
Um, let's see. In OTL the Russians send four armies to the south against Austria and two north against the Germans. They can send them all to the south against Austria and won't need the six more armies mobilizing in the rear. This means the Austrians will have to increase their army by 50% just to get walloped like they did OTL. The Russians are going to have a really big Navy to go with their really big Army. They are going to stomp on the Japanese, save themselves 3 billion rubles and have a really big railroad net. Oh they are going to so stomp on the Austrians
You're arguing that Russia, by spending less on its military, will actually make its military bigger and better!
The Austrians have neither the oney nor the men to match the Russo-Germans.
Again, so what good are the French? They lost OTl to the Germans who didn't even commit their 8th army or Eastern garrisons
Is Germany committing 100% of its forces to the fight with France or is it committing a portion to its southern border? Please be consistent.
The French can't wait. They get to attack against the whole German army. An attack against a larger force is doomed- and the only way to deploy the French army would be through Belgium So the French now get to fight the Belgians as well. So let's see, six divisions sent to deal with the Italians, six Belgian divisions lost as allies but now enemies.
The French will have to attack or watch the Austrians go down and then take on the Russo-German-Italian alliance alone. This is suicidal.
The French are going to commit suicide because not committing suicide is suicidal.
The French and Germans are fully mobilized within three weeks. How does one side or the other gain by waiting? Oh wait, that would be the Germans
Again, so what good are the French? They lost OTl to the Germans
So the Germans aren't going to widen the frontline, creating the conditions necessary of OTL's Battle of the Frontier, yet they're still going to win just as in OTL?
So the Austrians triple their defense spending (somehow)
but then how Austria is keeping this navy while doubling its army spending you've never come close to explaining
Did I say Austria would triple its military budget or did I say they'd double it? Wait, I said neither! If you're going to strawman me at least keep it consistent.
Now let's move on to some abject falsehoods.
It is your geography that needs boning up. The Straits of Otranto are quite narrow enough that the minesweepers are just going to be under the range of the Italians the whole time
The Straits of Otranto are, at their narrowest, 72km wide. Please find me the pre-WWI artillery piece that had even 30km range, I'd be interested in seeing such a marvel of engineering. Since you decided that Galipoli would be the benchmark for comparison I may as well point out that the width of the Dardanelles varies between 6km and 1.2km.
They can't match either one and then they still have to deal with the Italians and the Romanians. If they try to match them, the pathetic excuse of an economy is going to tank even worse
The Austrian economy was by no means weak, let alone "pathetic". It was by all accounts strong, diverse, and growing fast. Sure it had a trade deficit, but that's not an indication of weakness (unless you also believe the current Russian economy is stronger than the current American economy).
Now to address your other points.
The French coast is also vulnerable to the Italians and then there are those North African divisions that are going to be attacked in transit.
In the face of overwhelming Austro-French naval superiority the Italian navy will be roaming the Mediterranean with impunity?
You're ignoring the implications: The Austrians could still mount some resistance in 1866 so fighting on was possible. In this scenario, there is no way to survive a defeat.
You're saying Austria can't possibly fight on after an initial defeat, even though that's exactly what happened OTL? More Russian soldiers isn't going to help them outrun the retreating Austrians, and that's assuming the Austrian's opt for a suicidal maneuver war on the plains of Galicia.
you were the one proclaiming how the Romanians were in worse shape OTL and held out for a year. But now they are being dispatched by a few Hungarian irregulars
Their ability to wage a hybrid conventional/guerrilla defence in the mountains of Moldova does not serve as an indicator for their ability to reach the plains of Pannonia.
So the Austrians triple their defense spending (somehow) and the Romanians just twiddle their thumbs.
OTL the Romanian's viewed the Russians as their primary great power threat, they didn't built an army to match Russia OTL. Of course this could be butterflied, but it wouldn't be a logical butterfly.
The historical example stands In a war in TTL we can expect the French to deploy the six divisions to the south
OTL France was worried about the entire Italian army, not an Italian army that would be primarily focused on Austria.
So now the Austrians are going to give up Galicia and a fifth of her population without a fight. That should help recruiting
Shouldn't matter in a war that at most lasts two years, and historically Vienna didn't put much value in Galicia.
FJ and his crowd might want to fight on but the troops are going to have other ideas
Germany and Russia will do to the Czechs and Ukrainians what Italy did to the Croats and Slovenes: make them realize that Austrian rule is better than being the minority in an ethnostate.
The Austrians have neither the oney nor the men to match the Russo-Germans. They can't match either one and then they still have to deal with the Italians and the Romanians. If they try to match them, the pathetic excuse of an economy is going to tank even worse
A-H spent a smaller portion of its budget on its military than any other great power. It's not going to crash its economy by by spending a more reasonable proportion on the military, especially since a lot of the expense can go towards "civilian" matters like rail lines. Should TTL's Austria go to war at a speed greater than that of a bicycle, it'd already be a humongous improvement over OTL.
edit: forgot these two
How does one side or the other gain by waiting?
The French gain additional reinforcements from the UK.
How the Austrians are going to afford these continual bombardments and carry them out despite not being done in OTL you don't explain.
OTL the Franco-British-Italian navy forced the Austrian navy to opt for becoming a fleet in being, so another raid would invite their own destruction. Dismissing it out right is like saying the Great Tokyo Air Raid is impossible on the basis that the Dolittle Raid was of little value and was not immediately repeated.