In a Nazi victory, how long would it take for state collapse?

If we assume victory over Russia in early 1942, and a cold war with the US and Britain... I'd guess the Reich lasts until the mid 70's or so, with Hitler himself making it to about 1948 or '49. Or it could linger on until today, but I doubt that.
 
It has always seemed to me that a Nazi win would end up with the collapse of Germany, either because the economic model of endless government spending would fail once they ran out of plunder,...
I am very much against "endless government spending" just like you, and as I have already stated I am very much against Nazism, just like every sane person.

But what exactly is "the collapse of Germany"?
I have already pointed out the possibilities for a country with severe economic difficulties:

- Being occupied by a stronger neighbour. This is unlikely precisely because we are dealing here with a "Nazis win" scenario.

- Splitting up into smaller entities. Germany does not have a tribal society. The separatist movements after World War One were jokes and collapsed within days. (Yes, some political entities do simply collapse - cease to be, end their existence, become a former entity etc. etc. With a country it's not so easy)

- Regime change, either peaceful or violent. Having won a war usually increases a government's popularity. In a post WW II Germany, both OTL and ATL, you have millions of former soldiers who have seen the misery of the people in the USSR at first hand - misery that existed on the very first day on which they occupied the area in question. The Nazi government will tell everyone "it is we who have protected you against all this misery" and there will be lots of people who will believe this, at least among the Germans. The fact that the RAF made a point of bombing civilian areas will also help Nazi propaganda immensely, again making it look like the protector against an outside threat.
It is unlikely that there are many people that will risk their lives in an attempt at a revolution or coup only because there are economic difficulties. In OTL there were Generals who considered a coup in 1938, but did not dare attempt it because Hitler was so successful at Munich. You will have the same attitude squared after a victorious World War II.

- Creaking on, as the Soviet Union or North Korea have creaked on.

And please remember that in a way Germany had been there before. The governments of the Weimar Republic inherited enormous war debts from their predecessor governments from WW I. They got largely rid of them during the hyperinflation of 1922 and 1923. Although this was far from being an intelligent way of tackling the problem, the Weimar Republic continued its existence for about a decade, and its end was far from being an inevitable consequence of war debts or inflation. And there is also the obvious fact that Weimar Germany had to pay reparations, which a victorious Nazi Germany won't have to pay.

... or because the sheer brutality of their genocidal policies towards the Slavs would cause overwhelming guerrilla resistance in Eastern Europe.

No one is doubting the brutality of the Nazi occupation. But guerilla movements were only a minor factor compared with the conventional armies and air forces that the German armed forces had to confront.

After a Nazi victory, guerilla movements are almost bound to decrease, not increase, either because the factories that have supplied the guerilleros have been occupied by the Germans, or have been bombed out of existence, or because the government of a rump USSR or defeated UK is afraid of German reprisals if they keep supplying any resistance movement in German occupied territory.

Please remember also that for a "Nazis win" scenario the Nazis must have done something intelligent in the alternate timeline, where they have done something stupid in OTL. Being intelligent enough to win WW II and then being stupid enough to "make Germany collapse" (whatever that means) is a very unlikely combination.
 
Perhaps the quickest end to Nazi rule would be the following scenario: Hitler dies at some time in the late fourties or early fifties. He makes someone his successor who is an even more fanatical Nazi than he is. That someone (I don't know if Himmler fits the description) demands an even more thorough "ethnical purge" of the German nation than the Holocaust that has already taken place. Every German has to prove that there are no Jews or Slavs among his ancestors down to some point in the early eighteenth century where written records of marriages and baptism are no longer easily available. People who fail to do so or who have one sixty-fourth of "Jewish blood" or "Slavic blood" are no longer Germans in a legal sense and put into concentration camps, while those with still more are sent into the gas chambers. Of course millions and millions of Germans have slavic ancestors and not a few Jewish ones, and almost everyone, including many high ranking Nazis fear for their lives.

Alternately or in addition the new Führer raves and rants about the fact that the "slit eyed" Japanese and "mongrel" Americans still rule over their respective empires and demand that they must be nuked as soon as possible, although it is a well known facts that the two nations in question can retaliate in kind.

Two very good reasons for a number of German Generals to attempt the coup that they or their predecessors have not dared to, or have failed to, stage.

A relatively quick end to Nazism, but not to Germany as a country, or even as a great power. Quite possibly not even an end to German militarism.
 
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how about USSR as a comparison? I don't know the debt comparison, but you don't get much more inefficient than the Soviet model of economy, yet the Soviets went on for decades.

This would seem to be the way to go here, UP; I'm a little surprised nobody else in this thread has made this analogy.

A triumphant Nazi recovery after WWII should be at least as permanent-looking as what happened for the Soviets in OTL. I think it will be decades until people even start to question the validity of Germania's claims about sustainable industrial output, and even then as long as the regime has still got the likes of Speer in high level positions they should make a better show of economic managerial skill than the Brezhnev-era Comecon did.

In fact, I think as long as German cartel capitalism survives in a form that is able to deliver consumer goods to people in the fatherland proper, not to mention select client states, then the actual reveal of just how rotten the monolithic Greater Reich is will come as something of a shock to the rest of the world.

Imagine if, instead of allowing us the truth about massive rural poverty & urban pollution in the face of free wheeling growth in the big cities, today's PRC had been pretending all along that their entire realm has the same uniform levels of development as a Taiwan. And imagine if they told us this in a brief paroxysm of attempted political reform. That's what a non-nuclear-apocalypse demise looks like for the 3rd Reich's empire, IMO.
 
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