In a CP victory scenario, will there be a WWII?

[Britannicus]

Most CP victories involve a German victory in Europe and an Entente victory in the colonies, so let's start with that as our set-up. The war is over by 1919, the Septemberprogramm has been enforced in Europe, establishing German dominance on the continent, yet, in Africa and the Middle East, Britain has occupied all German colonies and defeated the Ottoman Empire, and consequently makes gains in those areas.

With that scenario in place, is a Second World War/Second Weltkrieg/Second Great War/whatever it would be called possible? Or would the damage sustained to France and Russia by the war simply make an anti-German coalition in Europe impossible? Would the world simply enter into an Anglo-German Cold War until one side blinks?

 

[lukedalton]

Nope, if the Septemberprogramm it's applied, France will be not in any shape to fight back Germany and same for Russia, the only way possible it's that Germany little Empire implode by the imperial overstretching of Berlin

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Nope, if the Septemberprogramm it's applied, France will be not in any shape to fight back Germany and same for Russia, the only way possible it's that Germany little Empire implode by the imperial overstretching of Berlin

You assume Germany will have the capability and willingness to strictly enforce the Program in the long term and that butterflies don't shift things in the ground. Instability in Russia isen't going to last forever, and in our timeline Weimer was well on its way to moderate power in a decade with France and Britain already being forced to soften terms. And that's in a situation where they only had to keep down one country and had no serious international opposition, unlike here where the Germans have to keep up pressure in both directions and face British opposition.

I'm also personally of the theory that an economic crippling of France/drop in standard of living in a harsh peace scenario would realistically trigger a shift away from herv demographic downslide, but that may be bias on my part.

Most CP victories involve a German victory in Europe and an Entente victory in the colonies, so let's start with that as our set-up. The war is over by 1919, the Septemberprogramm has been enforced in Europe, establishing German dominance on the continent, yet, in Africa and the Middle East, Britain has occupied all German colonies and defeated the Ottoman Empire, and consequently makes gains in those areas.

With that scenario in place, is a Second World War/Second Weltkrieg/Second Great War/whatever it would be called possible? Or would the damage sustained to France and Russia by the war simply make an anti-German coalition in Europe impossible? Would the world simply enter into an Anglo-German Cold War until one side blinks?

Very much possible in the sense of a massive industrial war, but I doubt you'd see the level of global alliance systems that in our timeline bled the theatures of conflict together into a single "war", since German power is so contained. It's more likely to be a Russo-Teuton Was in Eastern Europe.

 

[lukedalton]

You assume Germany will have the capability and willingness to strictly enforce the Program in the long term and that butterflies don't shift things in the ground. Instability in Russia isen't going to last forever, and in our timeline Weimer was well on its way to moderate power in a decade with France and Britain already being forced to soften terms. And that's in a situation where they only had to keep down one country and had no serious international opposition, unlike here where the Germans have to keep up pressure in both directions and face British opposition.

At all the OTL death and destruction that France had to endure you need to add not only any lack of reparation but also the obbligation to pay reparation to Germany (Septemberprogramm idea was to make them pay the pension fund and the wardebt), the loss of the iron ore in Longwy and Briery and the passage of a zone around Dunkerque to the puppet state of Belgium.
Sure war debt repayment can go like OTL Germany and be much less of what imposed, still will cause great problem at an already problematic economy, not considering that the population will be hardly in the mood of another round with Germany and the lack of fortress in the north plus Belgium being just a German satellite mean that the road for another invasion will be extremely open

 

[Lalli]

I doubt that strongly altough not totally impossible but very very implausible anyway. United Kingdom would be victor in seas so it hasn't much if not any grudge over Germany and United States would return to isolationism and is not intrested about European issues anymore.

France would be totally defeated. It has lost two major wars against Prussia/Germany only in fifty years so it hardly would want go third round. Any government would had very difficult get French to third war against Germans, no matter is that democratic or dictatorship. Even in OTL French morale was nearby of collapse. Futhermore France would lost many important mines and it would has even weaker strategic situation. Germany would be very willingful and capable doing all stop France rising against Mitteleuropa order. Germany would be too strong that France could ever challenge that. And I don't even bother talk about Italy.

Russia too would be in very weak position. It would of course depends who would win civil war and what then afterwards, but Russia would have very very long recovery era. And it would had too lost Ukraine and Caucasian/Caspian oil.

 

[pattersonautobody]

I actually edge towards no.

A Germany that wins WW1 has
-The world's best scientific institutions
-Nuclear power and the bomb at least a decade before anyone else
-Jet engines probably half a decade before anyone else

The real question is whether Germany initiates another war due to no power in history having such a one-sided military advantage since the Spanish took on the Incas and Aztecs. Great Britain probably becomes Finlandized, the Middle East falls in CP sphere of influence, and ITTL USA is busy with Japan and by 1950 is full Cold War with Germany.

 

[Lalli]

I doubt that there would be US-Germany Cold War. I don't see any reason for this. Germans aren't intrested very much what is happening in Western Hemisphere and Germany even can't do anything against USA. And USA is not intrested about Old World and they might have quiet good relationships.

 

[damein fisher]

I learn towards yes, but not in the way one might think.

I imagine a German that wins WWI would be eager to avoid a Napoleon; as in, try to quickly improve relations or at the least appease them enough to not worry about a WWII. But as strong as Germany would be, between their vast empire[communist uprisings likely still occur in their client states] and possible support for Austria and Ottomans [for oil], they will likely be unable to hold on. I predict that if a WWII does happen, it will be a conflict over communism.

The idea of Germany going communist and allying with the USSR would be too dangerous for the other great powers to allow, so we have German [plus all their clients], whatever is left of Austria and the Ottomans, Japan [wanting influence in Siberia], maybe Britain [who might fear a global communist scare over a German Europe one], and maybe France [perhaps offered the french parts of Alsace-Lorraine] against the communist world USSR and China.