In a America-Nazi Cold War scenario, how likely is World War 3?

[the Imperium of Canada]

So let's say that Operation Barbarossa is (miraculously) completely successful and the Soviets are pushed beyond the Urals. Let's also say that the Western Front drags into a stalemate and peace is made in 1945 or 1946. Let's again also say Hitler is in much better health then OTL and can be expected to live to 76.

A Cold War then settles between the United States and Nazi Germany, with the germans managing to developed their own nukes by 1952.

So under these circumstances, how likely is a third world war breaking out compared to OTL?

 

[Questerr]

Depends on lots of circumstances. If the Nazi's alliance and the US's alliance don't have a land border, I'd say the likelihood is small. If they do have a land border, the threat goes up.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

Depends on lots of circumstances. If the Nazi's alliance and the US's alliance don't have a land border, I'd say the likelihood is small. If they do have a land border, the threat goes up.

Let's assume that the Soviets managed to avoid completely collapsing and a rump USSR is now allied with the United States.

 

[Questerr]

Let's assume that the Soviets managed to avoid completely collapsing and a rump USSR is now allied with the United States.

Then yes, a World War 3 is certainly possible. Likelihood is going to be based on how much the two sides are into brinksmanship and what commitments both sides have made.

I've been working on a Nazi-US Cold War story for a couple years now and the lead up to that world's WW3 is based on a lot of factors including German adventurism in Africa, the US support for Russian partisans, attempts by both sides to circumvent MAD, and more.

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

Very high the Nazi ideology is built on finding and killing the other. in order for the regime to survive a constant stream of new enemies needs to be fought and overcome.

This video explains this simple fact better than I ever could.

 

[haltia]

What does the middle east look like in this timeline? if the germans conquer the caucasus they would run into british occupied iran and the war would continue there

and what about china? if the USSR is defeated they won't be able to invade manchuria. a peaceful transfer of power from japan to the KMT might happen once Japan surrenders. this puts the KMT in a much better position to resist the CCP, the civil war there would probably continue for several decades

 

[Captain Homicide]

Without going into specifics I can easily imagine (as in AANW and other TLs) Nazi Germany attacking the WAllies in the 1950s or 1960s (with or without WMDs). The fact that Hitler saw the WAllies as the true enemy, spoke about a “war of continents” and fantasized about New York City in flames alone makes it a near certainty. If Germany has a sizable nuclear arsenal that only increases the chance of them suddenly attacking the WAllies.

Think about how many times the US and the USSR almost went to war IOTL. Now think about what a cold war would be like with a much worse regime run by much more fanatical and evil figures like Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels etc who have social Darwinism and war against groups they see as lesser as a part of their core beliefs.

The Nazi leadership were a lot more mentally warped and short sighted than the Soviet leadership (especially after Stalin died and the USSR moderated). When you compare the number of countries the USSR fought on its own volition in its entire 74 year history compared to how many countries the Reich fought in a span of a mere 3 years you’ll see that the Reich relished and worshipped warfare and conquest to a degree nearly unrivaled.

 

[marathag]

It's a Cold War until the US can get a large enough fleet of bombers, cruise missiles and ICBMs with nukes to erase the Nazis.
WWIII happens before the Nazis have the Bomb, which will be many years longer than the USSR took.

1950 at the latest.

 

[Vercigentorix]

Tough to call . I lean on unlikely , a victorious nazi empire would be much geographically contained than the USSR and the us won`t face a fascist scare like the red scare or threats to North America itself like in cuba .