In a 1980s WWIII scenario, what "neutral countries" would we expect to be dragged in?

The Korean War would probably restart if WWIII broke out in Europe in the 1980s, as Kim Sung Il would probably see that as an opportunity to restart hostilities and take on South Korean with the United States distracted in Europe and only able to provide smaller-than-intended backup.
 
Austria's a good probable. Finland is treaty obligated to allow passage to the Soviets, but whether they'd actually live up to said treaty obligation can be considerably debated... either way they'll get dragged in. Sweden's another probable, definitely on NATO's side. Yugoslavia's a "maybe, could go either side". China's another "maybe", although if it does join it almost certainly will on NATO's side.

Not exactly true. This is the actual wording of the relevant portion of the Finno-Soviet Treaty of 1948 (my translation):

Article 1

In the case Finland or the USSR, through the Finnish territory, are subjected to an armed attack by Germany or one of its allied nations, Finland, as true to its commitments as an independent nation, will fight to repel this attack. In this case, Finland will commit all available resources to defend its territorial integrity on land, on the sea and in the air, and does this within the national borders of Finland, pursuant to the obligations defined in this agreement, assisted by the USSR or together with it if needed.

In the above-mentioned cases, the USSR will give Finland appropriate help, the giving of which will be agreed upon by the contracting parties.


Article 2

The high contracting parties will negotiate with each other in the case that the threat of an armed attack, as meant in Article 1, has been established.

So, you see: there is no mention of an obligation to allow passage to the Soviets, and legally, strictly speaking, Soviet troops could only enter the Finnish territory if invited by the Finnish government, by the Finns asking the USSR such military help in the appropriate negotiations as defined by the Treaty.

Now, in reality the USSR would in the case of war twist Finland's arm in many increasingly drastic ways to allow its forces access to the Finnish area, in an effort to safeguard Leningrad, Murmansk and Kola, and the area in between, and to get more airspace to try and stop expected inbound NATO bombers, etc. But if the Finnish government and military have any balls, they can draw out these negotiations and eventually, if they do not accept Soviet help, they would force the USSR to invade Finland unilaterally, outside the scope of the Agreement, which could of course mean war. Simply going by the existing agreements, the USSR can do nothing if the Finns pigheadedly refuse to ask them for help, except to back down or (more likely) make war on Finland.

If you recall, the above chain of events is essentially what takes place in my P&S spin-off. It would be more likely that the Finns would cave in under Soviet pressure, sooner or later, but still some negotiations would be necessary before the Soviet troops enter Finnish territory.
 
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The reality is that, in a conventional war, the USSR would violate the neutrality of any state by air, naval, or ground forces if they felt that the advantages gained would outweigh any negatives. The negatives would not be diplomatic, but rather would the addition of the neutral states' militaries to the anti-Soviet coalition be such that they Soviet forces would be disadvantaged. Countries like Finland and Austria, which represent pathways to attack NATO would not have their neutrality respected, and certainly Swedish territorial waters and possibly airspace will be violated.Switzerland, like I and others have commented, would probably be left alone during the war unless some special circumstances came up - little immediate advantage.

In a major nuclear exchange, you can be sure the USSR would hit anyone they thought could be a post war competitor. Who they would hit depends a lot on when the conflict takes place and how many warheads and delivery systems they thought they could spare from hitting NATO & allies. Pre-Mandela South Africa and Israel would certainly be hit as both were nuclear powers or could be very rapidly. India and Pakistan might take hits on their nuclear production facilities, again so nobody else can get the toys. Selective hits on Argentina and Brazil for the same reasons as potential nuclear powers very likely. I am assuming that South Korea and Japan get hit as US allies. China is going to get it from the USSR and possibly the USA as well even if they are neutral, especially for the Russians the idea of a relatively intact China next door after a nuclear exchange is their biggest nightmare.
 
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