The exact kind of scenario you've described, while not quite ASB, is ridiculously improbable.
However, the general idea of having Mexico become an even more broken, corrupt, and more explicitly criminal-controlled country isn't out of the question. You could almost certainly see some kind of strongman emerge, with the backing of cartels, who turns the place into an actual narco-state. Which specific PODs you'd need, i'm not sure, but i'd say they'd have to be further back than 2010.
However, the general idea of having Mexico become an even more broken, corrupt, and more explicitly criminal-controlled country isn't out of the question. You could almost certainly see some kind of strongman emerge, with the backing of cartels, who turns the place into an actual narco-state. Which specific PODs you'd need, i'm not sure, but i'd say they'd have to be further back than 2010.