It's not like New Hampshire was close in OTL: Reagan 50, Bush 23, Baker 13, Anderson, 10, Connally 2, Crane 2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries Even in the very unlikely event that Baker, Anderson, and Connally had
all withdrawn and
all their votes had gone to Bush, Reagan would still have won!
No doubt "I am paying for this microphone, Mr. Green" helped Reagan but it was not essential for his victory in NH.
Yes, I did once express a contrary view in
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-to-be-his-running-mate.442181/#post-16908503 but the premise there (that Reagan agrees to a pure one-on-one debate and that Bush demolishes him there) is pretty unlikely, and even if it happened I doubt that Bush would have won the primary. Even if excluded from the debate, the other candidates would still be around to split the moderate vote, while the
Union Leader was rallying the Right behind Reagan.