Improving WW2 Japan from 3 POD 1932

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Banned
No, Italy switched sides after a governmental coup, Japan is not likely to do the same

Furthermore the USA is not going to initiate a Pacific war, it has no reason to, by passive economic measures it can force Japan to do as it wants or Japan has to start a war
Been raised before on this board. Japan can attack the European colonies in south-east Asia without attacking the USA or the Philippines. Japan then has the resources to ignore any economic pressure by the USA.
 
Been raised before on this board. Japan can attack the European colonies in south-east Asia without attacking the USA or the Philippines. Japan then has the resources to ignore any economic pressure by the USA.
And that the Japanese military would not even consider doing that as long as the USA holds the Philippines across their line of communications, this has also been raised on the board, if they strike south they hit the Philippines, 1932 is not early enough to eliminate this attitude
 

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And that the Japanese military would not even consider doing that as long as the USA holds the Philippines across their line of communications, this has also been raised on the board, if they strike south they hit the Philippines, 1932 is not early enough to eliminate this attitude
I agree that the objections towards the issue has been raised, but never convincingly or satisfactory.
Just because the Japanese commanders believed the Philippines to be a threat, doesn't make it one. It is just a belief.
And beliefs can be changed, quite fast.
 
I agree that the objections towards the issue has been raised, but never convincingly or satisfactory.
Just because the Japanese commanders believed the Philippines to be a threat, doesn't make it one. It is just a belief.
And beliefs can be changed, quite fast.
Not for these people, they assumed that the USA was like them but with less willpower, and thus the US would use the Philippines to jump in on them when they were distracted and the US finished the 1940 building program, thus cutting of their route to the southern conquests, which the Philippines were in an ideal position for make no mistake about it

To change this perception you need a fundamentally different Japanese military with a pre 1932 Divergence point, the Philippines are always going to be perceived as a threat, even if the USA seems to want to stay neutral

The IJA and IJN were remarkably set in their ways regarding this, good luck changing it
 

Rubicon

Banned
Not for these people, they assumed that the USA was like them but with less willpower, and thus the US would use the Philippines to jump in on them when they were distracted and the US finished the 1940 building program, thus cutting of their route to the southern conquests, which the Philippines were in an ideal position for make no mistake about it

The Philippines as a threat to the Japanese SLOC is a Non sequitur.

As a naval base? To close to Japanese airbases.
As an air base? To easily overrun by the Japanese army and without possibilities of re-basing.
As an army base? To easily cut off from resupply.
As a sub base? Yeah, that really worked out well in real life didn't it? How many ships did the Manila subs sink? Three? Four?

To be a threat, the Philippines has to become an England in -43/-44, i.e. an island filled to the brink with weaponry and soldiers. The Philippines have to fill all the above criteria to become a threat. And even then it is easier to cut of the Philippines for Japan, then it is for the Philippines to cut of Japan.

To change this perception you need a fundamentally different Japanese military with a pre 1932 Divergence point, the Philippines are always going to be perceived as a threat, even if the USA seems to want to stay neutral

The IJA and IJN were remarkably set in their ways regarding this, good luck changing it

I disagree, all it takes is for the Japanese commands to have some sort of paradigm shift in regards to the Philippines, those things happen, all the time, to all of us.

However, I have on the other hand no intention of writing a timeline with a PoD after 1932.
 
The Philippines as a threat to the Japanese SLOC is a Non sequitur.

As a naval base? To close to Japanese airbases.
As an air base? To easily overrun by the Japanese army and without possibilities of re-basing.
As an army base? To easily cut off from resupply.
As a sub base? Yeah, that really worked out well in real life didn't it? How many ships did the Manila subs sink? Three? Four?

To be a threat, the Philippines has to become an England in -43/-44, i.e. an island filled to the brink with weaponry and soldiers. The Philippines have to fill all the above criteria to become a threat. And even then it is easier to cut of the Philippines for Japan, then it is for the Philippines to cut of Japan.

I disagree, all it takes is for the Japanese commands to have some sort of paradigm shift in regards to the Philippines, those things happen, all the time, to all of us.

However, I have on the other hand no intention of writing a timeline with a PoD after 1932.
Except the Philippines were kept unfortified by a treaty, that Japan discarded and the USA then began building those facilities, but were not even close to being finished

Never mind that Japan can only throw 6 divisions at the Philippines (assuming they scraped every other amphibious operation), whereas the US threw more than 8 divisions at it and could garrison more in peacetime if need be

Never mind that the Japanese caught the Philippines by surprise or that the majority of US Pacific forces were not there at the time

And of course why would they experience such a paradigm shift, the Philippines are ideally positioned to cut them off and that can't change without moving the islands or making them Japanese
 
I think in case Japanese attack UK and Dutch, USA is going to take steps that would ensure they get into war. They would send patrols, they would declare 'exclusion' zone like in Atlantic and generally take steps Japanese would be unable to ignore very long. In the end they would need to eliminate US interference. Only now, with Philippines much better fortified and Filipino army trained, it would not be easy. Plus, they would have all those other places to care of.

IMHO, they simply could not ignore PI. If they were ever to go to war against USA it would be too close to Japan forthem. If Americans were the first to declare war, PI would, as has been said already, cut Japanese empire in two.
 

Robert

Banned
There are three things that could happen that would give Japan the resoures it would need to either deter or take on the United States.

One, a cynical moderation of it's racial policies to recruit anti-colonist forces in India and Asia. Japan was never able to fully exploit the divide between the Allies and their colonies because of harshness of their occupation policies.

Two, the fall of Britain, causing a power vacuum in the Far East. If Lord Halifax had become Prime Minister instead of Churchill there was the possibility of a political collapse in England, which would lead to surrender. Those Anti-Nazi forces would move to Canada, and President Roosevelt would have to become far more involved in Europe even as the risk of losing the 1940 election. Even if he had lost, his Republican opponent, Wendall Wilkie, was also Anti-Nazi and efforts of the Third Reich would continue.

And Three, Japan does not become a member of the Axis. While the U.S. and Free British and Commonwealth forces would be battling in Europe, Japan could exploit the situation independently. French Indo-China and the Neatherland East Indies could be conquered outright, and India and Malaysia could be subverted, potentially giving Japan resources and manpower to exploit.
 

iddt3

Donor
There are three things that could happen that would give Japan the resoures it would need to either deter or take on the United States.

One, a cynical moderation of it's racial policies to recruit anti-colonist forces in India and Asia. Japan was never able to fully exploit the divide between the Allies and their colonies because of harshness of their occupation policies.

Two, the fall of Britain, causing a power vacuum in the Far East. If Lord Halifax had become Prime Minister instead of Churchill there was the possibility of a political collapse in England, which would lead to surrender. Those Anti-Nazi forces would move to Canada, and President Roosevelt would have to become far more involved in Europe even as the risk of losing the 1940 election. Even if he had lost, his Republican opponent, Wendall Wilkie, was also Anti-Nazi and efforts of the Third Reich would continue.

And Three, Japan does not become a member of the Axis. While the U.S. and Free British and Commonwealth forces would be battling in Europe, Japan could exploit the situation independently. French Indo-China and the Neatherland East Indies could be conquered outright, and India and Malaysia could be subverted, potentially giving Japan resources and manpower to exploit.

The first isn't doable. The Japan that's interested in carving out an East Asian Co-Prosperity sphere is going to be the same Japan that firmly believes in it's own superiority. To try and separate the two impulses is to misunderstand the common source from which they spring.

Two : Even if Halfax gains power, he isn't going to surrender to the Germans, no one outside of the Fascist fringe was discussing that, instead the UK would go for an Armistice with concessions from Germany, at minimum I think France needs to free, probably the low countries and Poland too, which is unacceptable to Hitler. Either way, no collapse.

Three: Japan not being in the Axis makes her more isolated, not less. Regardless, the IJN was absolutely unwilling to entertain this scenario, with good reason, and you haven't provided any PoD to change this.
 
The Japanese never even gave serious thought to attacking the port facilities. Even in the base planning of the operation it calls for any perspective 3rd wave to be armed mainly with torpedoes to finish off cripples in the harbor.

The entire "attack the shore facilities" myth is right up with the "invade Midway after losing the carriers" myth on the list of things that the Japanese never would have done. The Japanese were not at Pearl with the idea of a long war in mind. They clearly understood that a long war against the West equaled defeat or at the very least an extended distraction from the actual main war against China.

The whole idea was to knock the U.S. out of a position it interfere, create a defensive perimeter that would be too costly for the U.S. or British to challenge and then make a deal and end the war on good terms. Stupid? Yes, given the countries involved. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that it had pretty much worked just fine against the Russians in 1905 and that even the Great War had been ended on (admittedly harsh) terms, not in some sort of absolute defeat. Unconditional surrenders and total destruction/occupation of the enemy was rare to the point non-existent in the modern era (and post WW II have been quite uncommon as well).

I understand that - I've read enough PH discussions to be ignorant of it. ESPECIALLY the Greater Indian Ocean Raid/Occupation thread. ;):p

What I meant is that WI Japanese high command realized the shortage of fleet tankers in the 30s and build more of those? Come December 7, 1941, the Kido Butai would (theoretically) be able to stay for a third wave against PH.

That, of course, is just me extrapolating things out of thin air. :eek:

Marc A
 
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What I meant is that WI Japanese high command realized the shortage of fleet tankers in the 30s and build more of those? Come December 7, 1941, the Kido Butai would (theoretically) be able to stay for a third wave against PH.

Marc A

If they build tankers and merchant ships, they're probably not building destroyers, battleships and aircraft carriers.

Trying to beat the US with that size of industrial complex was ... not very smart.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
No, Italy switched sides after a governmental coup, Japan is not likely to do the same

Furthermore the USA is not going to initiate a Pacific war, it has no reason to, by passive economic measures it can force Japan to do as it wants or Japan has to start a war


I would say we were at war with Japan through proxies (KMT China). Between sanctions and supplies to the KMT, FDR can likely force Japan to back down.
 
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