Improving Ukraine's fate

KACKO

user23123 said:
They CSE will for sure develop there weapons during and after the war,but one of the requests of the thread is improve Ukraine.for that to happened we need a CSE as rich as possible,CSE in an alliance with the West increase the chances of that.

So how about CSE alliance during the war,this will be compose of Slovakia, Romania, Ruthenia Hungary,and the soviet A-bomb as the point when the CSE alliance joins NATO, the CSE that joins NATO is compose of Austria,Romania,Hungary, Slovakia,Czech,( or Czechoslovakia if it is restored),and Ruthenia
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You are right. In NATO they don't need to spend so much money on their own R&D but acquire licenses. Without war destruction they will be probably much better off then rest of the Europe.

With or without Marshall plan for them - after all they helped to destroy Nazis I believe CSE Europe Economy could be on higher level then today Austria. So if USSR fell in early 90-ties, but without Central and Eastern Europe under Soviets it could be even in late 70-ties or Early 80-ties, CSE Europe can start their investments in Ukraine but possibly also southern Russia.

Soviet A- bomb may some time later this time as Czech mines are not supplying material to Soviets.
 

user23123

KACKO said:
You are right. In NATO they don't need to spend so much money on their own R&D but acquire licenses. Without war destruction they will be probably much better off then rest of the Europe.

With or without Marshall plan for them - after all they helped to destroy Nazis I believe CSE Europe Economy could be on higher level then today Austria. So if USSR fell in early 90-ties, but without Central and Eastern Europe under Soviets it could be even in late 70-ties or Early 80-ties, CSE Europe can start their investments in Ukraine but possibly also southern Russia.

Soviet A- bomb may some time later this time as Czech mines are not supplying material to Soviets.
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Neither the Romanian mines,or any of the CSE but they will for sure get one.
As for investment all of the C.E.E.,that is DDR (which as in otl will probably by unite with the rest of Germany but still in need of investment ),Poland,Belarus,Ukraine,the Baltic's,and of course Russia it self.

Marshall plan they might not need it.
As the richness,they can categorically get to Austria levels,and even higher (a maximum the Netherlands level),and for the low Greece

For the Netherlands level - they have the resources(oil,gas,fertile soils and so on), they have the Black Sea (with here oil,gas and so on),and Adriatic sea with here resources close by,they have a major river (the Danube) to unite them and for cheep transport,they have the population (plus refuges from the Soviet dominated countries),they will be not affected or slightly affected by the war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

As for the fall of USSR in my mind was just like otl,but it could happen early

For the R&D they can join the Euro-fighter consortium for ex,they can also join the MBT-70 project,which later was develop in to M1 Abrams and Leo-2,so why not the leo-2 continues as a European tank program

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT-70

Edit: and they will benefit from Nazis scientists,some of them will end up in CSE at lest for a while.
Edit 2: could this TL also bypass the Yugoslavian wars or part of them ?
 
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user23123

KACKO said:
However what about Czech?
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One way to have some improve of Czech situation during the war,is to have them as some sort of a puppet,
- Sudetenlan that will still be under-direct control of the Nazis.

Was there any plans for a puppet Czech ?
The idea is to have Czech play the role of the otl Slovakia,or at lest a part of it.But i have no idea if that can be accomplish,or how.
 

DaleCoz

I would go back a bit further to get a better Ukraine. As I see it, there are three main problems in the Ukraine (a) A lot of ethnic Russians and Russians in the east, as a result mainly of Russification efforts under the Soviets and the death of so many Ukrainians during the 1930s famines and World War II, with the country getting fought through twice, (b) Weak leadership. It takes decades to develop strong leadership in a country, not just at the top, but with a competent, relatively honest bureaucracy to support the leadership. (c) The Stalinist terror, which the eastern part of the Ukraine got at full force, probably even more so than Russia. It has had a long-term impact on attitudes and relationships within the country. As one astute person said, the full impact of Stalin-type dictatorship is to take an aquarium and turn it into fish soup. It's very hard to reverse that.

To get around those problems, you would have to go back to before Stalin, maybe to before World War I. Two possibilities come to mind: (1) Austria gives part of the Ukrainian-majority area in its empire a considerable degree of autonomy instead of allowing the Poles inside the empire to dominate it. That gives the Ukrainians a cadre of experienced leaders during the wild period immediately after World War I, and might lead to an independent Ukrainian state, though frankly that's unlikely given the hostility of both Poland and the Soviets. (2) In the early-to-mid 1920s, under NEP, the Ukrainian SSR was given considerable autonomy and developed an autonomous leadership cadre. Unfortunately, that cadre was one of the early casualties of the Stalinist purges. If events among the Soviet leadership had gone differently at the right time and that leadership had survived, Ukraine would have presumably have been in better shape if/when it became independent.
 
Clandango

Clandango

I read that the Austrians may have been planning to do that after WWI, with splitting East Galicia. I should also ask on whether or not They would think of themselves as Ukrainians or instead see themselves as Galicians or Ruthenians. Ukraine hadn't had any independent states for nearly a thousand years, after all.
 

fasquardon

I Austria dividing west and east Galicia might not do much... If Lvov is in West Galicia, the Ukrainians might want it back, if Lvov is in East Galicia, the Poles will definitely want it back.


Maybe if the Austrian part of Poland or at least the eastern part of it were administered by the Hungarians rather than the Austrians? They were much less enlightened in the way they administered their minorities. Give the Poles and Ukrainians a common enemy, much like the way the Russians did so much to improve Polish-Ukrainian relations by being equally unpleasant to both...


fasquardon
 

Zaius

fasquardon said:
Maybe if the Austrian part of Poland or at least the eastern part of it were administered by the Hungarians rather than the Austrians? They were much less enlightened in the way they administered their minorities. Give the Poles and Ukrainians a common enemy, much like the way the Russians did so much to improve Polish-Ukrainian relations by being equally unpleasant to both...
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Hungary has traditionally been friendly to Poland, so Galicia might also end up like a second Croatia. If it happens, the Poles may even get a completely free hand in dealing with the Ukrainians, without any pro-Ukrainian action from Vienna at all.
 

LeX

Have Ukraine stay part of a reformed Russian empire, kind of how Texas and California are part of the USA and not their own countries. It thus gets access to the resources of Siberia without dealing with the problems associated with international trade, has a powerful military force to protect it from any possible threat, and discourages silly Balkanization elsewhere in Eastern Europe.
 

Vonar Roberts

A lot of Ukraine's current economic and social woes can be traced directly back to the Soviet era heavy industry which was never modernized, and the fact that their state run oil company only charges consumers 20% of the actual value of the Natural Gas. As a result of this policy the federal government is stuck with the bill for a massive 7.5% of GDP energy subsidiary program which is operated by the Ukrainian government Ukrainian companies have no incentive to modernize, and they still utilize Soviet-era heavy industry which is incredibly inefficient.


Really the only way to save Ukraine from its current economic woes is to go back far enough so that the natural gas subsidy can be nipped in the bud, thus Ukrainian businesses are forced to reform and become more efficient, and get rid of the Ukrainian oligarchs. That way Ukraine doesn't become Moscow's de facto rainy day fund - or at the very least is much less dependent upon Moscow's energy monopoly.
 

Falecius

MalcontentRex said:
I think there would have been more active support for Ukraine in the West had they not allied with the Third Reich and partaken in some of the worst atrocities of the Holocaust.
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I don't think that the vast majority of the Western public opinion is even aware of anything like that.
By the way, my understanding of the matter is far more nuanced. Ukraine as a country never allied with the Nazis, for the obvious reason that no such country existed during WWII, and, as far as I know, many Ukrainians, probably the majority of them, were fairly busy fighting against the Nazis anyway. There was a not insignificant organization of Ukrainian nationalists that collaborated with Axis against the Soviet Union (and Poland) and some of those people actually took part in atrocities.
However, the ultimate fate of Ukrainians in Nazi plans was either extermination or enslavement and deculturation, and at no point the Nazis bothered to be very subtle about it, so that they quickly alienated most of any political capital they may have possessed as "liberators" from the Soviets in Ukraine. Even if the worst of Stalin's atrocities had just happened in Ukraine a few years before (which helps explaining why some Ukrainians collaborated anyway).
It should be pointed out that in the European order the Nazis envisioned after their victory, there was not place whatsoever for such a thing as "Ukraine".
 
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Falecius

Avskygod0 said:
Simple, have the USSR make the borders ethnic. That may mean no sea access but who gives a damn, at least a more homogeneous state is always more stable
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This seems an excessively broad statement.
Especially because people can pick any previously "irrelevant" dividing line to play instability around even in places that could be regarded as "homogeneous" under other perspectives. Ethnicity in modern states is not an immutable political given but a malleable factor.
 
thezerech

thezerech

I wanted to write a TL precisely on this subject, one where the Central Rada is overthrown/never comes to power instead Skoropadsky raises the 340,000 volunteers.
 

fasquardon

thezerech said:
I wanted to write a TL precisely on this subject, one where the Central Rada is overthrown/never comes to power instead Skoropadsky raises the 340,000 volunteers.
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If you ever write this, I would love to read it. Been getting into post WW1 East European history lately, and it is twisty interesting stuff.



fasquardon
 

Old Airman

Banned
This should be in the pre-1900 forum. Lines of political split in today's Ukraine are closely aligned with 1654 and 1795 Russo-Polish borders for a reason.
 
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