Incognito
Banned
Relatively developed you say?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_Austrian_Galicia
You have proof of this assertion?
Improving Ukraine's fate
- Thread starter Zaius
- Start date
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_Austrian_Galicia
Incognito
Banned
And why would CP victory be any better than OTL? OTL the CP ended up supporting a dictatorship by a Cossack strongman as "their man" in Kiev.
OTL's Soviet domination was a disaster which would take quite a bit of effort to replicate. It also sets the bar for "better then OTL" so low that it means little.
Germany had pretty close ties to the Third Reich, as I recall.
Incognito
Banned
I wouldn't call all of Soviet history in Ukraine a "disaster" but if CP victory means no Holodomor and no Nazi occupation (WW1 German victory means no German revanchism and so forth) than maybe you are right. Though it would be ironic as in such a world Eastern European nationalist movements would be seeking to break out of Germany's orbit and so seek to cozy up to Russia -- a reverse of what is often seen OTL
Primarily this. I can't say wether a Germany which treats Ukraine like a colony and exploits it accordingly can run the Ukrainian economy into the ground on a scale similar to OTL or not.
Though it would be ironic as in such a world Eastern European nationalist movements would be seeking to break out of Germany's orbit and so seek to cozy up to Russia -- a reverse of what is often seen OTL
Add poverty as a result of increasing German exploitation and a prosperous capitalist Russia, and the reversal is even more ironic.
true but how long is that going to last 1 decade 2 maybe 3 atmost after that, it will reap the benifits that come with being part of the german lead market zone, note i am not saying it will be an equal partner even then but not just a german pupet either.
As that article itself notes, it was poorer than Ireland but richer than Eastern Hungary, Croatia-Slavonia, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Russia. Also, keep in mind that all the people who emigrated from Galicia were, while fleeing poverty, also rich enough to buy their own tickets.
So yes, hardly developed, but I didn't say developed, I said relatively developed. In this case, relatively developed as compared to eastern Ukraine, where most of the peasants were too poor to even buy tickets out of Europe.
To use wikipedia again, try here.
fasquardon
If, in 1991, the Ukraine had firmly turned Westwards and modernized like Poland did, I bet it would be a much, much better place. One advantage the Ukraine has over much of the rest of the exUSSR is the large diaspora. I bet you could have gotten 10s of thousands of ethnic Ukrainians, farmers and small businessmen, say, to come from Canada alone to help the 'old country' adjust. Im proposing that these guys (and gals) would come over as advisors for a 6month-5 year stint and then most would go home. Some, especially businessmen, might stay and invest.
Many would bee retited people looking for a new challenge. Some might be sons and daughters who werent going to get the family farm.
Honestly, I think the Ukraine really, really dropped the ball on this.
Many would bee retited people looking for a new challenge. Some might be sons and daughters who werent going to get the family farm.
Honestly, I think the Ukraine really, really dropped the ball on this.
Why should they come if they have mortgage to pay in Canada? Unless of course Ottawa is going to pay it for few years for them.
The issue with a post WWI POD in which WWI goes as in OTL is that, unless the rise of nazism/a German attack on the USSR is also avoided, Ukraine will likely be attacked by either, or both, parties, and likely to end up firmly in the Soviet sphere of influence.
Of course, it still avoids the Holomodor, so it's still an improvement.
South Korea received American aid for an amount of roughly 15% of their GDP and focused their development in a State directed export economy based on selling (initially) cheap crap made in sweatshops by very badly paid workers offshore.
After ww1 (in an as OTL time line world war)
- Have them more united (the Ukrainians),same for Belarus
- Have them not fight with there neighbours.
- Have Poland,Ukriane and Belarus accept a form of the curzon line.
- Have Romania spend war world one,having here army,been reformed,retrained,and required by the entente,so they see only a limited,involvement in world war one,just a few days or weeks at the end and then have them involved in the Russian civil war.
So we have Belarus,Czechoslovakia,Poland,Romania,Ukraine,Baltic's states (the more the better) fighting the reds in the civil war,so they survive the civil war,both Belarus and Ukraine in the best case scenario.
If things progress as in OTL,we get to molotov-ribbentrop pact where Nazi Germany attacks Poland and Soviet Russia Ukraine (and Belarus if both survive),
Now Poland dose better then otl,since they fight on one front only,they probably still get overrun,but the retreat to Romania is more successful.In Ukraine ( and Belarus) (we don't get the Stalin purges,and famine),and also a Ukrainian (and Belarus).
- The Polish free army will be bigger
- This (the Soviet Ukraine-Belraus war) will also probably skip the winter war,and skip the Soviet ultimatum on Romania (depending on how the Soviets do in the war).(i will the the most optimist in which they are spiked)
- So Finland is neutral,no for Romania,(again the optimist version) they are also neutral ,but they get in a quick war (just a few days) with Hungary in the Slovak–Hungarian War.
so they are also neural in the ww2 (and we add Hungary,and probably Bulgaria and Slovakia).The war as to be quick,so that, together with better Romanian German relations (Romania limited involvement in ww1),and the German need for Romanian Oil there is no war between them,(i know the Nazis are bad,but we will need as much as possible of the central-south eastern Europe (CSE for short),in the right camp for the cold war,and Stalin and Hitler are still friends).
So we get to the Operation Barbarossa,probably same as otl,but with out the involvement of Hungary,Romania,Slovakia.bla,bla bla,the tide is turned (again i will take the optimist path,in which the soviets are not attacking the CSE,and the CSE is not attacking the soviets).But i will be bad and have the CSE,back stab the Germans (when the soviet are in the middle of Poland,and the real evil (and probably abs),we also have deal between CSE and N.Germany and so the war is a fake war,so will have less people dying,we will have the denazification after the war,(and of course the Nazis will put all everything against the soviets),so that after the war there is a CSE is in control of a part of the Nazi Germany empire,that will be Austria,Silesia,Czech Republic,and the south of otl DDR (CSE here is Hungary,Czech,Romania and Slovakia)
(that will be cottbus,leipzig,halle,erfurt,suhl,gera,dresden,Karl-marx-stadt for the CSA controlled ).
So we get to the cold war,Soviets are in control of Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland and a part of Germany.bla bla,we get to the collapse of the Soviet empire,but in mean time,CSE is somewhere between otl Austria and Greece (when it comes to economic development).
No for the after fall of Berlin wall part,we have a stronger diaspora of Ukrainians and closer to home (more easy to move back and/or invest),a more richer Europe (more money to invest),the CSE is also richer,so there is a close to home place for Ukrainians to work,and return home with out spending a lot of money (weekends and holidays in Ukraine).So we have a Ukraine that is moving to wards the west as early as OLT Poland(the optimist version) or as late as OTl Romania (the pessimist version),so there are as rich as Poland in otl or as pure as Romanian in otl aka monthly average wage 1218 $(Poland) or 753 $ (Romania) (according to wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_Europe_by_monthly_average_wage)
Hope this is good enough of an improving over the otl with out to much of an abs.
- Have them more united (the Ukrainians),same for Belarus
- Have them not fight with there neighbours.
- Have Poland,Ukriane and Belarus accept a form of the curzon line.
- Have Romania spend war world one,having here army,been reformed,retrained,and required by the entente,so they see only a limited,involvement in world war one,just a few days or weeks at the end and then have them involved in the Russian civil war.
So we have Belarus,Czechoslovakia,Poland,Romania,Ukraine,Baltic's states (the more the better) fighting the reds in the civil war,so they survive the civil war,both Belarus and Ukraine in the best case scenario.
If things progress as in OTL,we get to molotov-ribbentrop pact where Nazi Germany attacks Poland and Soviet Russia Ukraine (and Belarus if both survive),
Now Poland dose better then otl,since they fight on one front only,they probably still get overrun,but the retreat to Romania is more successful.In Ukraine ( and Belarus) (we don't get the Stalin purges,and famine),and also a Ukrainian (and Belarus).
- The Polish free army will be bigger
- This (the Soviet Ukraine-Belraus war) will also probably skip the winter war,and skip the Soviet ultimatum on Romania (depending on how the Soviets do in the war).(i will the the most optimist in which they are spiked)
- So Finland is neutral,no for Romania,(again the optimist version) they are also neutral ,but they get in a quick war (just a few days) with Hungary in the Slovak–Hungarian War.
so they are also neural in the ww2 (and we add Hungary,and probably Bulgaria and Slovakia).The war as to be quick,so that, together with better Romanian German relations (Romania limited involvement in ww1),and the German need for Romanian Oil there is no war between them,(i know the Nazis are bad,but we will need as much as possible of the central-south eastern Europe (CSE for short),in the right camp for the cold war,and Stalin and Hitler are still friends).
So we get to the Operation Barbarossa,probably same as otl,but with out the involvement of Hungary,Romania,Slovakia.bla,bla bla,the tide is turned (again i will take the optimist path,in which the soviets are not attacking the CSE,and the CSE is not attacking the soviets).But i will be bad and have the CSE,back stab the Germans (when the soviet are in the middle of Poland,and the real evil (and probably abs),we also have deal between CSE and N.Germany and so the war is a fake war,so will have less people dying,we will have the denazification after the war,(and of course the Nazis will put all everything against the soviets),so that after the war there is a CSE is in control of a part of the Nazi Germany empire,that will be Austria,Silesia,Czech Republic,and the south of otl DDR (CSE here is Hungary,Czech,Romania and Slovakia)
(that will be cottbus,leipzig,halle,erfurt,suhl,gera,dresden,Karl-marx-stadt for the CSA controlled ).
So we get to the cold war,Soviets are in control of Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland and a part of Germany.bla bla,we get to the collapse of the Soviet empire,but in mean time,CSE is somewhere between otl Austria and Greece (when it comes to economic development).
No for the after fall of Berlin wall part,we have a stronger diaspora of Ukrainians and closer to home (more easy to move back and/or invest),a more richer Europe (more money to invest),the CSE is also richer,so there is a close to home place for Ukrainians to work,and return home with out spending a lot of money (weekends and holidays in Ukraine).So we have a Ukraine that is moving to wards the west as early as OLT Poland(the optimist version) or as late as OTl Romania (the pessimist version),so there are as rich as Poland in otl or as pure as Romanian in otl aka monthly average wage 1218 $(Poland) or 753 $ (Romania) (according to wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_Europe_by_monthly_average_wage)
Hope this is good enough of an improving over the otl with out to much of an abs.
Not bad. Of course as you said Soviets had to accept neutrality of CSE which could be possible if they have to deal with Germans.
However what about Czech? Are they occupied by Germans as OTL? So Slovak army will be basically participating on liberation of Czech lands. This will mean Czechoslovakia will be not restored after war. However will Soviets and West support that? After all restoration of Czechoslovakia was agreed on.
I assume after Slovak-Hungarian war Hungarians are keeping Ruthenia (which was not a reason for war from Slovak side anyway.) Now I am curious how Ruthenia minority will develop in Ruthenia under Hungary. Hungarians were not best with minorities rights even by 1930-ties standards but I assume Slovaks and Ruthenians minorities in Hungary will very likely cooperate?
I am playing with similar CSE scenario but didn't thought for consequencies in 90-ties.
The soviets CSE neutrality will come out of helplessness and necessity.
helplessness = we get to dazing or war,since this will be the point where the soviet will have free hand,in dealing with Blr,UKR (and the rest) now Belarus and Ukrainian army's will probably be some where between otl Polish,Czechoslovak,Romania army's,so the soviet will have a hard time overrunning them,at best they have time for a winter war (if event will have the same order as otl),so chance of them having time to handover an ultimatum to Romania are slim,
And for necessity part = then the Germans will lunch Barbarossa (same time as otl),CSE countries will come under a deal with them after the war.
Yes,
Edit: How can there be a Barbarossa,and Slovak-Hungarian war and a independent Czech ?
Slovakia and Romania for sure,but also can Hungary and Ruthenia.Czechoslovakia is up to the countries that compose it,and any why not to the soviets
Ruthenia is between them and the Slovaks,as the union between Czech Slovakia after the war,and so is the border between Hungary and Slovakia,so if the Slovaks decide to have referendums in the area to see where the border between them and Hungary is they can do that..If Slovakia wants the today borders they can have them,if the what to re-establish Czechoslovakia they can.Hungary will get today's borders any thing beyond that will done as a result of referendums.
For the war :
Slovak-Hungarian war,will be a Little Entente war between Slovakia,Ruthenia,and Romania vs Hungary which probably even under otl condition's the LE will have probably win. ( Keep in mind that at the time of the Slovak-Hungarian war,France was still free and there was no R-M pact.)
Also Hungary will be disarmed aka lose here tanks,artillery and aircraft,to the Slovaks Romanians and Ruthenians,
Edit : after the war CSE will join the be in NATO they will join out for fear of the Soviet Union. at lest the countries bordering the Soviets empire (that his Poland,DDR,and USSR)
Last edited:
Wasn't sure how it played.
As far as I know Slovakia was never interested in Ruthenia. Slovak population there was very small and just on the border.
One more question. Was there 1st Vienna Award?
Here we have a problem.
1st) Romania indeed mobilized after Hungary moved into Ruthenia but afterwards didn't move because Czechoslovakia with which they have defense agreement - LE was not longer existing. To keep the agreement in play we will need different Slovak declaration of independence - maybe agreement between Prague and Bratislava as in 90-ties when both sides are successor states of Czechoslovakia (not Hitler pressure on Slovak diet to declare independence).
2.)Slovak Army will need to be better organized - OTL during Slovak Hungarian war was basically in creation as Slovak soldiers were often stationed in Czech lands and vice versa. Not enough Slovak technical personnel. You need to butterfly that too - maybe Slovaks served in Slovakia under Slovak officers - this serve as a core of new Army. Army was divided as in 90-ties between Czechs and Slovakia before Germans occupied Czech lands.
3.)Germany will try to stop the war in Central Europe as soon as possible. If Hungary is threatened by defeat they may jump against Slovakia. So Slovakia is balancing on the edge here.
Ruthenia however declared independence day after Prague was occupied so if Hungary is at least pushed out from Ruthenia and Slovak liberates at least predominately Slovak territories lost to Hungary in Vienna (if there was Vienna agreement) everybody would be more or less happy except Hungarians.
More likely. However with pretty much anti communist regimes in power not discredited by war against USSR, with economies and countries intact and actually profiting on the war and with relatively short but victorious campaign in Austria and Czech lands against Nazis they may decide to form their own alliance right after war to which NATO will be a partner.
At lest some sort of Vienna 1 is there,was not 1st V, one of the reasons for H-S war,there will be no Vienna 2
Romania involvement will come as a result of defending successor states of Czechoslovakia against Hungary in according with the LE pact.
I have them in so there will be no Vienna 2,Hungary is neutral and so is Slovakia (at lest the chances are higher ) and to decrees the chances of an Soviet ultimatum,and then having them involved in the invasion of the soviet union,and the them becoming communist after the war.
If Slovak Army,is better then otl the,will be a plus,the war as to quick.
Edit: Also one more reason for Romania involvement in the war between Hungary and Slovakia is the state of the Slovak army OTL,but if the Slovak army is better prepared,is a great plus
That is why i wanted a Romania involvement,
1 - Romania is an allied of France,Germany is not ready for an war with France, so there is one reasons for Germany staying out.
2 - Having them in,also increase the chances of an quick Hungarian defeat(Hungary also neutral),the second reason for Germany to stay out.
--
and France is not ready or willing for a war with Germany aka one of the reason why CSE will reach a oil,food for neutrality with Germany,the second one in time will the Soviets.
The can have their own alliance,but the soviets will still have the T34 and KV's.so there is the fear factor,and then i wanted to have one more factor to bring down the anti-Semitism in the CSE.
Last edited:
If already during war some sort of alliance is built in CSE Europe for purpose of supporting armed neutrality Romania can help with this:
And Hungary with something like this:
They CSE will for sure develop there weapons during and after the war,but one of the requests of the thread is improve Ukraine.for that to happened we need a CSE as rich as possible,CSE in an alliance with the West increase the chances of that.
So how about CSE alliance during the war,this will be compose of Slovakia, Romania, Ruthenia Hungary,and the soviet A-bomb as the point when the CSE alliance joins NATO, the CSE that joins NATO is compose of Austria,Romania,Hungary, Slovakia,Czech,( or Czechoslovakia if it is restored),and Ruthenia