Implications of Indian Tiger Economy

kernals12

Banned
India's post independence economy was significantly constrained by the layers of bureaucracy and red tape imposed on business, a system known as "license raj". India's resulting poor economic performance through the 1980s led to the term "Hindu Rate of Growth" compared to the rapid growth in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. If India had managed to achieve double digit growth rates starting after independence, there would be some interesting impacts. They probably would've overtaken the Soviet Union in GDP by the 1960s and the United States by the 1970s. With China still stuck in the dirt, India would probably have become the world's undisputed superpower by 1980 and still hold that title today. It just goes to show how much Indians got screwed over by their leaders for decades.
 
Are you assuming an improvement from 1947? Another potential POD for an Indian tiger economy is that the post-1966 reforms aren’t shunted by Indira.

India would probably have become the world's undisputed superpower by 1980

Haha nope. India would certainly be much healthier by 1980, but this is insanity.
 

longsword14

Banned
India's post independence economy was significantly constrained by the layers of bureaucracy and red tape imposed on business, a system known as "license raj". India's resulting poor economic performance through the 1980s led to the term "Hindu Rate of Growth" compared to the rapid growth in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. If India had managed to achieve double digit growth rates starting after independence, there would be some interesting impacts. They probably would've overtaken the Soviet Union in GDP by the 1960s and the United States by the 1970s. With China still stuck in the dirt, India would probably have become the world's undisputed superpower by 1980 and still hold that title today. It just goes to show how much Indians got screwed over by their leaders for decades.
India ever gaining the East-Asian rate of growth with OTL socio-economical conditions is simply impossible. Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea are small centralized states with an autocratic center that could issue policies at will. The policies implemented there were also a sharp break, economically speaking, from their agricultural past.
Being small thus needing exports to kick things off, they also did not get(or remain) into the pitfall of tariffs and other means of closure from the world economy.
You have to go before 1947, back into the 20s to change things so drastically.
India would certainly be much healthier by 1980, but this is insanity.
I suppose he might be extrapolating TTL China's growth from the 90s, which should make it very large, a very optimistic expectation.
 

kernals12

Banned
If India is a high income economy by today, the world is unrecognizable. Just technology alone would likely be decades ahead of OTL.
Science runs into many bottlenecks. The rate of technological progress has not accelerated despite a record number of resources being spent on R&D.
 

kernals12

Banned
Are you assuming an improvement from 1947? Another potential POD for an Indian tiger economy is that the post-1966 reforms aren’t shunted by Indira.



Haha nope. India would certainly be much healthier by 1980, but this is insanity.
I think any time before 1955 would do the trick.
 

longsword14

Banned
They've managed to do it in the present day.
Only it was caused by events triggered from 1991, and the sources of growth are sort of superficial. India's agricultural transformation and its use of abundant labour is inadequate.
It is questionable for just how long the productivity would continue to grow at the current pace.
 

kernals12

Banned
Anybody have any idea what India could do during their war with China if they had a more sophisticated military as in this scenario? Could they try to liberate Tibet?
 

longsword14

Banned
Anybody have any idea what India could do during their war with China if they had a more sophisticated military as in this scenario? Could they try to liberate Tibet?
There were no such plans. The idea was to keep the border regions by show of force/ military posts in the disputed lands. Because they were not prepared for actual operations, they were so easily beaten by the Chinese.
To stalemate the Chinese would have been easier, just have India concentrate on keeping its army funded, and reform the Army Staff. All this could be done, if Nehru were a different person.
 

kernals12

Banned
There's something else: A rich India would've served as a great testament to the system of free enterprise. It would've helped break the association between capitalism and imperialism. This would've been very useful during the cold war.
 
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