Implications of Britain not entering WW1 until 1915.

[Histor32]

well it would open another front for the Russians and would likely send Finland into full revolt, also Sweden had about 6 division of infantry and a division of cavalry that was ready to go and the ability to call up an addition 6 divisions of infantry from reserves. While its just a drop in the bucket compared to what Russia could field, it would also force Russia to divert units away from the front with Germany and Austria-Hungry to keep Sweden from St Petersburg, and while they could probably keep the swedes from taking the city they would likely lose Murmansk and if the Ottomans jump in later the Russians would be completely cut off from the West.

Russia was doomed either way, by late 1915 the seeds were all in place .. swedish involvement would have expidtited this. Access to Swedish ore, navy, and food would in my opinion A deciding factor.

if the swedes join and England doesn't the Italians won't join or at least not the for the French, then it looks like a gang rape of Russia I can't see the Brits staying out and letting France and Russia fall.

The movement in colonies being given up to the Germans, Italians and the renewed resurgence of the ottomans might cause massive heart failures in London

 

[LordKalvan]

Well, UK not entering the war in August 1914 is good news for the CPs and bad news for the Entente. Unless the Germans end up overreaching (which should not be the case in 1914) it would make sense to me to have a whitish peace (except for Serbia) by Christmas 1914. If such is the case, the British may be unhappy with the outcome, but they will not want to start a new war. Peace by Xmas 1914 means however that there will be still a lot of unsolved issues in Europe: the stability of the Balkans is less than assured, Russia has lost the second war in less than 10 years and it is quite possible that there will be political upheavals coming up, A-H may have got the "short, victorious war" they wanted but their internal problems are far from being solved (in particular if they get sucked in a long and costly occupation of Serbia), and the same is true for the Ottomans (if they enter the war). There is certainly a chance that the German continental hegemony might be a far-sighted and constructive one (in particular if a reasonable understanding can be negotiated between Germany and the UK) but the smart money would be on another European conflagration around mid 1920s. IMHO you would have quite a number of alternative scenarios to play to your heart content.

 

[JErosion]

if Central powers were guaranteed Victory would the Italians finally jump in on the CP side? Not that they would do much. But everyone likes to be a winner and its an opportunity to earn themselves a seat at the peace table with the rest of the adults. But then what sort of concessions would everyone want? Sweden like Germany would be happy with Russia being humiliated and losing territory and would be fighting with the Germans for which royals to put forward as rulers for all those duchies and kingdoms. Germany might want to expand their African colonies if for no reason other than bragging rights, so possibly possibly French Congo or Madagascar. Although Madagascar would be a more strategic prize. And in the even the Italian jumped in at the last minute what would they possibly like? Some of the Territories in French North Africa? Any of the European lands? Parts of Savoy possibly Corsica?

 

[IanBertram]

I'm coming to the conclusion that purely for the purposes of my TL, there appear to be two broad alternatives.

1. Britain enters the war more or less on the OTL timetable. However, given the situation at home, the disturbances are put down with great ruthlessness, possibly by the creation of an alt-Black & Tan type organisation, for which role the militarised Civilian Force is already in being. This obviously has implications for the post war peace, but may also put stress on our conduct of the war. We might also reach an early deal on Home Rule for Ireland. Retaining Ulster sets up Easter 1916 or equivalent, letting it go sets up the possibility of a Unionist rising which would probably be much bloodier than the Republican one, lead to civil war in Ireland and perhaps the alt-Curragh mutiny would be much worse too. Nasty all round.
2. Britain doesn't enter the war and it is indeed 'all over by Christmas' - or soon afterwards anyway. Britain and Germany remain distrustful of each other however and as Lord Kalvan suggests we are on our way to another European war late '20s or early '30s. At home the Irish problem grows, as does industrial unrest, perhaps matched by an increased pressure for Scottish Independence. If war does break out in the '20s the Britain going into it would be very different from OTL

 

[TRH]

I kind of lean towards that second scenario myself, both because it's more original, and because I can so easily see British people taking the attitude, "During that Sarajevo crisis we let our internal troubles distract us enough that the world just passed us by! For the sake of the Empire, we can't let that happen ever again!" and that leads to a whole new grab bag of terrible decisionmaking.

 

[IanBertram]

Me too really, but there is a problem in that I want the alt-1947 to be sort of recognisable, which is unlikely with option 2. It's possible there wouldn't even be a UK. Imagine a United Ireland with a civil war going on and an independent Scotland. If that happened the pressure for independence in India would grow and our ability to keep the lid on would be much reduced. Canada, Australia, NZ and S Africa would begin to drift away.

Option 1 isn't much better of course - but then this is a dystopia. We've already in the ATL seen a fairly 'robust' response to dissent with tactics deployed in OTL against the IRA in the '20s appearing on British streets in 1913-14. The growth of a corporate state (Mussolini rather than Hitler) as the country moves to a war economy could lead to a rather nasty situation. Arrow and the CF are coming in to play. We might still end up with Scottish independence.

I'm seriously exploring the option of a Unionist uprising rather than a Republican one. It wasn't entirely impossible, even in OTL and given the willingness of the UVF (and soon the CF in England) in the ATL to respond with extreme violence it has all the potential to put us in an almost impossible situation in respect of the war. I'm going to have to think it through carefully, because I don't want a totally broken and defeated Britain in the next stages.