In OTL, the US in the late 40s was rapidly disarming and moving to a nuclear-focused vision for her military. When the Korean war broke out in June of 1950, the US lacked enough ships to blockade the Korean coast and the army had to salvage tanks from WW2 battlefields and museums to equip their units.
Given how close the Korean War was already, I'm curious how things might have gone if they'd continued along the pre-war track for a couple years?
So let's say that Stalin is both willing and able to hold Kim Il-Sung back for a couple more years. Let's instead say that Kim is allowed off the leash sometime in late 1952 or very early 1953 (so either the US has a VERY interesting election in 1952, or Stalin gives the new US President a nice inauguration gift).
Would the extra time really give the Communist side an advantage? How quickly was US military power atrophying under Truman?
And what are the knock-on effects of this later Korean War?
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Some of my own thoughts:
1) No President Eisenhower? My understanding is that the frustrating war in Korea was a major element that persuaded Eisenhower that his country needed his service in the Presidency. If the 1952 race is far enough along, or if South Korea is invaded after the election, Eisenhower may never stand and by the time 1956 comes around, he may feel he's too old to stand, regardless of world events in the meantime. This would have big impacts - Eisenhower's administration oversaw several important decisions about how to fight the Cold War - and no Eisenhower Presidency means no Eisenhower Republicans.
2) No Eisenhower Republicans? Is the Republican Party more conservative without Eisenhower? Are the more opposed to the New Deal? In OTL, Eisenhower took a rather moderate approach to the New Deal policies - my understanding is that this was not a position any of the other Republicans would have taken. Does this lead to president Adlai Stevenson in 1953? Or can Robert Taft win the Presidency for the Republicans?
3) Red Scare! Joe McCarthy had already started down the path of witch hunting some months before the Korean War began - does delaying it mean his career as a witch hunter fizzles out? (My bet is no...) Do the Red Scares change in other ways?
4) Yugoslavia. In OTL, Korea seems to have been a test to see if invading Yugoslavia to deal with Tito was safe. If South Korea falls quickly enough, what happens if Stalin, in the last months of his life, invades Yugoslavia? Potentially, this could go badly enough to seriously undermine confidence in the US alliance in Europe, or it could lead to nuclear war... Or any number of other options.
5) South Korea. Before the Korean War, South Korea was slowly getting a grip on its internal affairs (which were troubled by a not insignificant number of insurrections) and Rhee was pushing the country to militarize so that he could invade the North and re-unify the country. How badly are the South Korean Communists hurt by a 2-2 and a half year delay? Will the North Korean armies have any guerillas to support them in TTL? And how much can Rhee strengthen his military? Might this actually lead to a worse outcome for the Communists? Or might Rhee end up weakening himself with more time to pursue harsh policies?
6) The US military. I've heard alot about how bad Truman's policies were for US military power and technological leadership. But would 2-ish more years of them really be so bad? From what I've ready, the answer seems to be "yes", but I wonder if there's another side to this?
7) Vietnam. In OTL (in 1951), the French asked the US for help against the Vietnamese Communists. The US, at that time fully engaged in Korea, gave them a few transport planes. In TTL, if there's no Korean War, do the US send more aid to the French? Or even less? Either way, could this produce major changes?
8) China. In OTL, the Chinese Communists were preparing to attack Taiwan when the Korean War kicked off, and China ended up using resources earmarked for ending their civil war to prop up the North Korean regime. It was horrendously costly, and the Chinese felt like they'd been conned by the Soviets. If the Korean War is delayed, it is likely that we see a Communist invasion of Taiwan in 1950 or 1951. Taiwan at that time seems to have been nearly abandoned by the US - but then, we could say much the same about South Korea. So can the Chinese Communists complete the destruction of the Nationalists? Or can Taiwan hold them off on their own, or long enough that the US intervenes on their behalf? Either way, Chinese relations with the Soviet Union could be a bit warmer. Depending on who succeeds Stalin in TTL, that could have interesting implications.
9) The Soviet Union. Stalin getting the Soviets involved in a bunch of wars (Korea and Yugoslavia) and then dying would make for a wonderful, thoroughly boobytrapped gift for his successors. They could either face a situation where the West is powerfully riled up and pushes back, or a situation where both gambits appear to be great successes, luring them to get overconfident the next time tensions mount with the West. I suspect that an invasion of Yugoslavia would also be fairly expensive, if it ever happened.
So what do the rest of you think?